At last... Clarity!

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 16, 2007 12:52 AM CST in Football

After months and months of WTF moments in the national championship race, things finally make sense. It may seem even that much crazier now that Oregon unexpectedly lost to Arizona earlier tonight, but in reality things are quite clear at the moment.

At this point, four teams control their own destiny: LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. It may seem odd that four teams control their own destiny, but that is because three teams will play each other in the final three weeks of the season. For those four teams, if you win out you are headed to the Big Easy. If you slip up anywhere, you're eliminated.

Essentially, the Big 12 champion is effectively guaranteed a spot in the BCS Championship Game at this point. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri all control their own destiny, and the team that wins out will finish with only one loss and will thus be headed to the national championship game. Now who will that be? Oklahoma is the favorite, of course, but it really doesn't matter at this point. It's just the point that all three of those teams won't lose one more game, and the Big 12 champion will be headed to New Orleans.

LSU is the number one team in the country right now, and are very much in control of their own destiny, too. And the most likely scenario is that they beat Ole Miss, Arkansas, and the SEC East representative in the SEC Championship Game and clinch a spot in the BCS title game. If LSU loses, however, then things would really open up. The two top one-loss teams remaining if LSU drops out will be Ohio State and West Virginia, and one of those two teams would get the nod if they win out.

So, at bottom, the Big 12 champion has clinched a spot in the BCS title game, we just don't know who that team is just yet. And they will face LSU if the Bayou Bengals win it. If LSU slips up somewhere, however, the Big 12 champion will go up against either West Virginia or Ohio State for all of the marbles in New Orleans.

Though it may seem confusing, the national championship race is looking fairly clear at the moment. We still don't know who will be playing in the title game, but at least we've reached a point to where we can watch the games as they unfold with a very accurate picture in mind of who will make the BCS title game based on the outcome of those games.

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Maybe not so clear...

You make it seem so easy, but as wacky as this year has been, let's look at another scenario.

Missouri loses this week to Kansas State. Missou has lost 8 straight games in Manhattan, KS, so it's not unthinkable. Missou could be looking ahead to Kansas, and K-State will be looking to bounce back from being pounded against Nebraska. Knock out Missouri.
Kansas loses to Missouri next week, who just lost to Kansas St. That knocks out Kansas.
Kansas beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Kansas lost enough ground by proving they were "pretenders" and isn't able to gain enough ground to make up the points necessary at the end of the season. Knock out Oklahoma.
West Virginia loses to Cinci on the road this weekend. Knock out West Virginia.
In what could be Lloyd Carr's last Mich / OH St game, Michigan beats Ohio State to get to the Rose Bowl. Knock out Ohio State.
Arizona State loses to Southern Cal this weekend, dropping them to two losses. Knock out Arizona State.

That leaves...that's right...Georgia against LSU in the National Championship game.

The BCS would immediately go to a playoff system. Haha. But it would be cool. The only issue there is that Kansas might be able to jump back up into the title game if they lose a close game to Missouri.

- G Money in M-Town

by garymatrixx on Nov 16, 2007 10:09 AM CST reply actions

by the way

this is MemphisTider. :-)

- G Money in M-Town

by garymatrixx on Nov 16, 2007 10:09 AM CST up reply actions

no clarity at all

Highly possible that OU loses one of their last 2 games (OU struggles on the road and osu has knocked ou out of the race before) but still advances to the big 12 title game and beats KU or Mizzu. The big 12 winner would not go to the bcs title game. If ou lost their last 2 games, then texas goes to the big 12 game. Of course I hope you are right and ou runs the table.

by marino13 on Nov 16, 2007 10:19 AM CST reply actions

True...

It's highly possible that Oklahoma loses one of their last two games, but it's also highly unlikely that it happens. Neither Texas Tech nor Oklahoma State are particularly good -- combined they have a 12-9 overall record, and a 6-7 record in the conference -- and the Sooners usually beat those guys with no major problems. OU is pretty big favorites in both of those games, and the likely scenario is that they win both of them. The odds of an upset by the Red Raiders or the Pokes are low in each case.

And honestly, if Oklahoma drops one of those two games, it's probably unlikely that they beat the Big 12 North representative in the championship game.

Either way, the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that the Big 12 Champion is going to New Orleans. Yes there is a way that may not happen, but that seems highly unlikely to take place.

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 16, 2007 10:44 AM CST up reply actions

Just think

As average a team as Bama is, we could have been right there this year except for 3 plays, and all 3 of them were by JPW- fumble FSU, fumble LSU, and interception MSU. (Luckily we don't play any more teams with State in their name.) This year presented a chance for an average team to get some breaks and actually win a NC. Years like this don't come around that often.

by 5026 on Nov 16, 2007 11:49 AM CST reply actions

True

I agree that it is unlikely that OU loses to T Tech or OSU but OU's road performance this year in true (Tulsa & TX are neutral)road games (Colorado, Iowa State) is below average.

If OU does lose to TT or OSU it will not diminish their chances vs Mizzu or KU. In fact they are more likely to beat the north team if they lose a game before the Big 12 game.

Just my opinion...I could be wrong.

by marino13 on Nov 16, 2007 12:08 PM CST reply actions