Who wins the SEC East in 2008?

by Bamagrad on Oct 5, 2008 4:35 PM CDT

What a difference two years makes. I'm normally very impatient with Bama football, whether we're playing well or playing like we played in three of Mike Shula's four seasons. This year, however, I've finally learned to pace myself. I'm not looking ahead to LSU and Auburn because we'll need to play well to beat Ole Miss in thirteen days. That is our next assignment. We pass that, then we focus on going into Tennessee and winning there. But Ole Miss, first.

Strangely, the three biggest SEC games this year, in my opinion--and this is due largely to the effect they've had (and will have) on the division races--are Ole Miss beating Florida, Bama beating Georgia, and Vanderbilt beating Auburn. It's very easy to forget about how important inter-division SEC games are because we tend to focus first on the Western Division, but think about something. To make it to Atlanta, you must have the best record against all SEC opponents, not just East or West, and as a result of the three aforementioned games, there's a very good chance neither Florida nor Georgia will win the East. Both already have one loss to a Western division opponent, and both still have to play LSU and each other. Simply stated, a 6-2 conference record will probably win the East. With three SEC wins already, Vandy can legitimately make it to Atlanta if they can finish 3-2 in the conference and beat either Florida or Georgia. That's no small task, but it is certainly possible.

As for us...I am ecstatic that we are in a pennant race. 3-0 in the SEC with five conference games remaining. Let's have a great game against Ole Miss and we'll go from there.

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If you're going to lose though...

…it’s better to lose an interdivisional game because most of the tiebreakers (I think) are based on divisional stuff. The smart money in the East is on whoever wins the Cocktail Party. I’d love to see Vandy make it because it’s always the same three teams from the East. Tennessee clearly isn’t making it, but it’d be nice to see some variety out of that division.

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by Nico2.0 on Oct 6, 2008 9:45 AM CDT reply actions

in the past I woulda said Vandy, as a joke...

but I’m really rooting for them Commodores…

RBR's KING of HIP-HOP...

by SpockJenkins on Oct 6, 2008 9:58 AM CDT reply actions

You can't help but root for the 'Dores

But let’s face it guys, they aren’t in the same league as UGA or UF.

by LSU Jonno on Oct 6, 2008 12:44 PM CDT reply actions

Exactly...

I love the story, but no one rationally thinks they are that good. Hell, they are only a one point favorite over lowly Mississippi State, so that should tell you all that you need to know.

The ‘Dores should make a bowl game, but talk of legitimately competing for the East is just too much. Even though they luckily avoid both Alabama and LSU, the two best teams from the West, Florida and Georgia should beat them, and frankly they’ll probably drop at least a couple of more along the way just because they are Vandy.

As far as I’m concerned, at least until they go knock off either Florida or Georgia, they are a complete non-factor in the East.

by outsidethesidelines on Oct 6, 2008 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Sometimes...

…you just have to root for the underdog and Vandy and Kentucky have always been SEC underdogs. It would be way cool for one of them to win their division.

"I hate everything orange"
It's all about Crimson - ROLL TIDE!!!

by bamavicki on Oct 6, 2008 12:50 PM CDT reply actions

I have to go with

UGA

UF has looked very inconsistant and lost.
Vandy though a good story will lose a couple more
UK looking better but not title contenders
USC no chance with 2 conference loses already.

UGA is the best team in the east. As long as they get passed LSU and UF.

Don't take life to seriously, you'll never get out alive.

by bammer on Oct 6, 2008 4:31 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah, but hear me out

What if LSU beats Florida and Georgia, Georgia beats Florida, and Auburn beats Georgia? Can Vandy go 3-2 in their final five SEC games?

by Bamagrad on Oct 6, 2008 9:10 PM CDT reply actions

I say no

First and foremost, I think it should be pointed out that the odds of all of the aforementioned scenario actually playing out is extremely small. In all honesty, I’d put the odds of all of that actually happening probably somewhere in the neighborhood of three to five percent, and that may even be an overstatement.

Either way, even assuming all of that does happen, I still think the odds that Vandy can finish up 3-2 in their final five conference games is quite low. I don’t see any way that they beat Georgia or Florida, and the odds are likely that they lose at least one of the final three remaining games against Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The MSU game this weekend has upset written all over it, and frankly UK and UT are either on the same level as Vandy or better. You can find one loss in there, I’m sure.

If Vandy finished up 3-2 over their final five, that would put them at 6-2 in conference play for the year, and I just cannot see that happening. For those guys to do that, they would have to be huge overachievers, and that’s not likely to happen. They’ve already overachieved by a whole game as per the Pythagorean projections, and that’s through only three games, and it’s hard to see that holding up over the long haul.

by outsidethesidelines on Oct 6, 2008 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions