I love the story, but no one rationally thinks they are that good. Hell, they are only a one point favorite over lowly Mississippi State, so that should tell you all that you need to know.

The ‘Dores should make a bowl game, but talk of legitimately competing for the East is just too much. Even though they luckily avoid both Alabama and LSU, the two best teams from the West, Florida and Georgia should beat them, and frankly they’ll probably drop at least a couple of more along the way just because they are Vandy.

As far as I’m concerned, at least until they go knock off either Florida or Georgia, they are a complete non-factor in the East.

First and foremost, I think it should be pointed out that the odds of all of the aforementioned scenario actually playing out is extremely small. In all honesty, I’d put the odds of all of that actually happening probably somewhere in the neighborhood of three to five percent, and that may even be an overstatement.

Either way, even assuming all of that does happen, I still think the odds that Vandy can finish up 3-2 in their final five conference games is quite low. I don’t see any way that they beat Georgia or Florida, and the odds are likely that they lose at least one of the final three remaining games against Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The MSU game this weekend has upset written all over it, and frankly UK and UT are either on the same level as Vandy or better. You can find one loss in there, I’m sure.

If Vandy finished up 3-2 over their final five, that would put them at 6-2 in conference play for the year, and I just cannot see that happening. For those guys to do that, they would have to be huge overachievers, and that’s not likely to happen. They’ve already overachieved by a whole game as per the Pythagorean projections, and that’s through only three games, and it’s hard to see that holding up over the long haul.