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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Running Back Success Rates at LSU

Coffeelsu2_medium
...see Glen, when you cradle the ball properly good things happen...

In a game where the previously stout Alabama rushing attack was held to it's lowest total all year (138 yards), it shouldn't shock anyone that the Success Rates aren't that stellar. To refresh your memories (or if this is the first time you've seen this), each individual rush is considered on it's own, and measured by it's "success." A run is considered successful if it gets 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, and 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down. This is a much more accurate overall picture of how well a running back does in a game than just the total yardage or ypc averages because it ignores big run outliers that can skew those kinds of stats.  First up is Glen Coffe, the Tide's leading rusher with 126 yards and 1TD on 26 carries (4.8 ypc).

Glencoffeerbsuccessrateatlsu_medium

As you can see, Coffee finished up with only a 50% success rate despite the respectable totals (runs of 31 and 24 yards skew those statistics, one more reason this is a handier metric for accurately gauging a running back's success).   More interesting is the fact that only 5 out of his 15 first down rushes were successful (33%), meaning that Alabama routinely found themselves "behind schedule" as far as down and distance go when running on first down.  Next, Mark Ingram, the only other running back to carry the ball on Saturday:

Markingramrbsuccessrateatlsu_medium

Not a good day for Ingram, who came in sparingly to give Coffee a breather. Clearly Coffee has done enough in the staff's eyes to hold onto his role as primary back:

Rushingpercentagestolsu_medium

One more curious observation: Whither Upchurch?  After seeing plenty of time in the rotation and even working at FB, Upchurch didn't get a single carry in Baton Rouge or perform on special teams, and spent the second half sans shoulder pads despite his going through warm ups with the team.  Curious indeed.

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I had heard

Upchurch had a stinger or some weird muscle pull in his shoulder during warm ups.

Alabama judges its team by national and SEC titles. Auburn judges its team by how many times it beats Alabama. You tell me who the dominant team in the state is.

by Nose Guard on Nov 10, 2008 10:08 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Upchurch

CNS said in the post game press conference that Roy had a muscle spasm in his neck before warmups and they couldn’t fix it before the game started. CNS stated how much Roy is a part of our offense and that he loves him as a 3rd down back to give Glenn a breather.

by haybeav on Nov 10, 2008 10:25 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Muscle spasm in his neck

was what CNS said in the presser. From a girl sitting in a bed with a muscle spasm in her neck, I can say I wouldn’t be able to put on a helmet right this minute without tears, and I am on muscle relaxers!! Before you write me off as a wimp, bear in mind that I accidentally had natural childbirth, so I do have SOME basis for intense pain.

As I told my doctor when diagnosed with “muscle spasm,” it sounds so stupid! No one is even going to think it hurts! It does. In MY case, it takes weeks to work out, too. And the most unbelievable part is that you will just be walking around fine, then BOOM, crippling pain! Here’s hoping his works out MUCH better than mine…..it should. He is younger and in much better shape!

by crimsongirl on Nov 10, 2008 1:28 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I am far from an expert . . .

but I really thought that was the best game of Coffee’s career. He was playing against a stout D and I thought he made some really tough yards and he got some good runs to change field position. He ran with “authority” and I had a lot of confidence in him.

I am not trashing this statistical analysis but in the end statistics give us only part of the picture — its still a team game and the opposition defense is an even bigger part of the equation.

by wey on Nov 10, 2008 3:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I don't think anyone believes that there...

…is a perfect metric to measure success. Intangibles always exist and can’t be measured. However, I personally believe that it can be a better overall measure than simply throwing out a number of yards rushing. Someone could have 100 yards rushing on 20 carries and 90 of those could’ve come on one carry and it looks better than it really is. Unless of course that 90 yard run won the game.

by Nico2.0 on Nov 10, 2008 3:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

I like the success rate analysis and its probably better than other crude measurements so please keep up the good work. I would think its particularly valuable in comparing backs in the same game since they would be competing against the same defense — although even then late game carries against a tired D would skew the numbers. I just know that I came away Saturday thinking Coffee was a game mvp candidate and was surprised by the analysis. Maybe strength of the opposing run D could be factored in in some fashion.

by wey on Nov 10, 2008 4:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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