Running Back Success Rates vs Mississippi State

by Todd on Nov 17, 2008 10:00 AM CST in Football Comment 7 comments

...Mark Ingram with the sole rushing TD by a running back...

To refresh your memories (or if this is the first time you've seen this), each individual rush is considered on it's own, and measured by it's "success." A run is considered successful if it gets 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, and 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down. This is a much more accurate overall picture of how well a running back does in a game than just the total yardage or ypc averages because it ignores big run outliers that can skew those kinds of stats. First up, Glen Coffee:

vs Mississippi St / 11.15.08	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Glen Coffee	17	71	4.2	0	1	11	11.0	0

As you can see, Coffee wasn't terribly spectacular in the game with only 71 yards rushing and a mediocre 4.2 ypc. His success rate wasn't much better, finishing at 53% for the entire game (though he did do much better in the second half with 67%). Next up, Mark Ingram:

vs Mississippi St / 11.15.08	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Mark Ingram	13	78	6.0	1	1	5	5.0	0

Even though young Ingram didn't do much better than Coffee as far as yardage is concerned, he was the more consistently "successful" back (and finished with a better ypc average as well). Both Jeramie Griffin and Demtrius Goode got some carries in junk time, and Griffin really stood out:

vs Mississippi St / 11.15.08	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Jeramie Griffin	5	27	5.4	0	1	9	9.0	0

vs Mississippi St / 11.15.08	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Demetrius Goode	2	3	1.5	0	0	0	0	0

If you recall from spring practice, Griffin was being used as a short yardage power back out of single back sets like LSU used Jacob Hester last year, and just looking at his numbers (while also keeping in mind it was junk time at the very end of the game), he looks like the kind of runner that Saban and the staff covet. Keep an eye out for him in the future.

Finally, the carry percentages:

Now that Coffee has figured out how to keep the ball secure, it doesn't look like there's much danger of Ingram or anyone else taking over his spot as the featured back in the offense. Also of note is a second straight week without a carry for Roy Upchurch, who has been sufferening from neck and back spasms since just before the LSU kickoff. Here's hoping he'll be back and ready for the Iron Bowl.

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Terry Grant

I thought it was interesting that Grant did not even get any carries in junk time. I feel bad for him, but clearly his style just does not work with this offense. I know it is way too early to even mention this, but it got me wondering if Grant will be transferring out. Saban always makes a point of mentioning how hard of a worker Grant is, and how well he practices.

I would love to see him stay, but I wonder if he will ever be able to crack the lineup. Has anyone even seen him on Special Teams?

by Kenny483 on Nov 17, 2008 10:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

It's possible....

You certainly don’t want to declare a guy’s career dead this early — see our Upchurch speculation earlier in the year — but things don’t look good at all for Grant. Even in junk time where one of the top tailbacks was out with injury, he still couldn’t get a carry. A tailback / fullback hybrid player and a guy coming off of a torn ACL (who was playing cornerback earlier in August) even went in before him.

The problem with Grant is that he’s just nothing overly special. He’s a small guy so he’ll never be an inside runner, and frankly for a small guys he’s just not an elite athlete. He’s good good speed and cutting ability, but frankly there is nothing exceptional about either one. Moreover, even Grant himself explicitly admitted last year that his pass blocking “sucked,” so what does he do? He’s not big enough to run inside, he’s not really athletic enough to be a threat on the edge, and you really cannot leave him in the game on passing downs because he’s a poor blocker, so what do you do?

I’m afraid the answer is as we’ve seen thus far this year… you leave him on the bench.

At the very least, it’s not going to get any easier for Grant. Coffee and Upchurch both return for another year, and Goode, Griffin, and Ingram are all just freshmen that will continue to improve and get better. Moreover, we’ll be getting in guys like Trent Richardson starting next year, so it will only get tougher.

You never know what will happen — and no I’m not saying for sure that’s he will transfer someday — but at the very least it really doesn’t seem like he has a path for getting on the field in any legitimate time (or even in garbage time for that matter) in the near future.

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 17, 2008 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm surprised...

…he isn’t used on returns more, and even in two back sets from the shotgun as a receiver. And his pass blocking isn’t particularly bad, he showed a lot of improvement in that area during the A-Day game, but he still isn’t as big as the other guys so that is a liability. Still, I just wonder why he isn’t being used as a receiver or return man.

Roll Bama Roll

by Todd on Nov 17, 2008 11:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I think he is a pretty good player in space. I would like to see him maybe catch the ball some, but even there who are you going to take away catches from to allow him more playing time? I think OTL is right.

by Kenny483 on Nov 17, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A couple of thoughts...

I don’t understand the kick-off return situation. McCoy is the guy, but with guys like Maze and Scott, that doesn’t make any sense to me. I cannot help but think we have him back there for his blocking abilities, because it’s certainly not his return abilities. Even so, though, if we took McCoy out, it would go to a guy like Scott or Maze, and not Grant. He’s not as good of an athlete as those two, so it would make no sense to put Grant back there over those two.

Finally, the big problem with using him as a receiver out of the backfield is that he is so one-dimensional. You know he cannot pass block, and you know all he can really do is catch the ball out of the backfield, so with the limited nature he becomes easy to defend if you are a defensive coordinator. If you think he’s going to stay in, you just bring an extra man and force Grant to block him one-on-one, and if you think he’s going out for a pass, you just assign a safety or a nickel corner to him (i.e. a guy who specializes in covering people in space), and when you do that it takes away Grant’s athleticism advantage. The only way he will be useful coming out of the backfield as a receiver is by getting him matched up on a linebacker, and that’s going to be extremely difficult to do on any consistent basis because opposing defensive coordinators know that is not only how you want to use him, but essentially the only way you can effectively use him, and they will adjust accordingly.

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 17, 2008 11:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well said

I have been really disappointed in McCoy lately. I am sure he is a really good blocker, but he seems to have a difficulty getting open. I wonder if Earl Alexander or Darius Hanks would start getting more snaps. Hanks was definitely in the game a lot more against MSU. He was one of the few guys that seemed to be getting open a decent amount of the time.

by Kenny483 on Nov 17, 2008 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

CNS said...

at the end of part one of his 11/17 presser that terry grant received a thigh bruise during special teams and thats why he didn’t get any junk time running… so, no conspiracy

by K. brevis on Nov 17, 2008 7:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs