Random Thought: Texas Is Screwed, Texas Tech Maybe Not

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 23, 2008 2:40 PM CST Comment 10 comments

I was doing a bit of thinking about how the Big XII South will shake out, and I've come to the conclusion that Texas is totally screwed in terms of making the BCS National Championship Game.

Think about it...

Right now, Oklahoma is going to be ahead of them in the BCS, and their BCS rating will only get stronger with a win over Oklahoma State -- the #11 ranked team, in a rivalry game, on the road -- while Texas will get no credit even if they hammer a terrible A&M team. So, basically, there really is no way that Texas can legitimately pass Oklahoma in the BCS, so if it ends in a three-way tie then Oklahoma is headed to the Big 12 Title game and Texas is left in the cold.

So, what they really need is for Oklahoma to lose to Oklahoma State. But wait... if that happens, then you only have a two-way tie atop the Big XII South between Texas and Texas Tech... which would send Texas Tech to the title game by virtue of their win over Texas three weeks ago.

In other words, basically the only way that Texas can get to the Big XII title game, and hence the national title game, is for both Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma, and for Baylor to beat Texas Tech in the season finale, all the while they pound the Aggies. And what are the odds of that happening? About one in 20 trillion. Oklahoma State may very well beat Oklahoma, but Texas Tech will be a huge favorite, at home, against a likely 4-8 Baylor team. It's just not happening for the Horns one way or the other.

However, I will say that things actually look pretty good for Texas Tech, despite their annihilation against these Sooners last night. If they can just get Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma -- and let's keep in mind that wouldn't be a huge upset, OSU is a top 15 team in their own right, it is a rivalry game, and it is being played in Stillwater -- then suddenly they are right back in the driver's seat for the national title. Again, it would create a two-way tie between them and Texas, they would go to the Big XII title game over Texas by virtue of their win over the Horns in Lubbock, and then they will only have to beat Missouri to get to the BCS title game.

Bottom line, though they were completely thrashed last night, Texas Tech will be right back in the driver's seat for the title game with an Oklahoma loss, and Texas is just flat-out screwed almost regardless of what happens.

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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Agreed

The BON pages are blowing up, and not nearly enough people are looking at all the football left to play. The Bedlam game is huge, is in stillwater, and OU still has the 93rd defense. If it’s a shootout, the Pokes are screwed (see e.g., the TTU game), but if it comes down to pressuring Bradford and playing balanced ball, then I like their chances. That said, the notion of backdooring your way to the MNCG without winning your division, much less conference, is revolting. And, that is precisely the thoughts of ‘Horns fans: They are completely disregarding the division, KC and the B12 title. There is a chronology that MUST be met, for anyone to be a valid NC contender: Division (where applicable), Conference (incl. title game for some leagues), then the Big Dance. This Big 12 rule (OU, NU, maybe UT) is a loophole that really needs to be fixed. If the above was a valid argument for keeping 2-loss UGA out last year, then it’s just as valid with a 1-loss B12S team today.

by Stuck in the Plains on Nov 23, 2008 3:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wild Luck

Well, if Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and then Texas Tech lost in the title game to Missouri, wouldn’t they be right back in it? They might need USC to lose to UCLA, and the voters to still think more of them than either Penn State or Utah, but certainly plausible. Certainly not likely though.

by Bobby Briggs on Nov 23, 2008 4:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

No clue...

If that scenario happens, then it will either be Texas or USC making the title game, but who knows? USC is slightly behind Texas right now, but then again with that scenario Texas won’t even win their own division or their own conference. Of course, then again, unless Oregon State chokes this weekend, USC won’t win their own conference either, so that might be a push.

Honestly, if that much shit hits the fan, it will be a crapshoot regardless of how the cards fall. It will be SEC Champion v. Texas / USC, but as to which one of the latter two will make it, you’d do just as well drawing team names out of a hat.

Truth be told, if that scenario happens, the best title game would probably be a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, but that will never be allowed to happen.

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 23, 2008 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

the polls

and the voters are absolutely ridiculous. they vote like a bunch of little kids. they don’t have any long term memory (like Texas beating OU earlier in the season) and they get overexcited and blow the most recent game they see out of proportion. same thing happened with Bama beating Georgia, Texas Tech beating Texas and now OU beating TTU. i can understand Florida passing Texas since they’re a different team in a different conference. but OU passing Texas based off of this one game. gimme a break. Texas lost on a last second touchdown on the road, while OU got beat by 10 BY TEXAS on a neutral field. that’s just ludicrous to me. Texas is severely getting screwed. i really hope OSU can pull the upset in Stillwater next week. i’d like to see Texas play the SEC title game winner (hopefully Bama).

note: Bama is 0-7-1 against Texas all time. i don’t know about you guys, but i wanna see that record change.

by CSon on Nov 23, 2008 5:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The BCS Poll...

…now has TEXAS at #2, meaning that if they win out they rep the Big 12 South in the conference title game (and if they win that, are in the BCS Title Game). Crazy, man.

Roll Bama Roll

by Todd on Nov 23, 2008 7:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily,

As I just noted in a reply to another post, Oklahoma is behind Texas by the equivalent of one spot in two computer polls. I think it is entirely reasonable that Oklahoma’s SOS will go up enough after beating OK State and UT’s will go down enough after beating A&M, that Oklahoma could move up at least one spot in one computer to pass Texas.

by rugman11 on Nov 23, 2008 8:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah this is crazy

in my opinion the computers are doing their jobs successfully this week, trouble is, next week after SOS is factored in, the narrow edge tejas has over OU will likely disappear. and the voters, well, they’re morons and cant be counted on to bring common sense into the equation.

looks like OU just needs to win out and they’ll be getting the good news around this time exactly 7 days from now. (and given OU’s recent 0-5 streak in BCS bowl games, wouldn’t be pretty safe to say that’s good news for us too?)

by tempebamafan on Nov 23, 2008 8:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

any team but a re-match vs florida

and i’m happy/calling my bookie

by tempebamafan on Nov 23, 2008 8:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As mentioned earlier...

… though Oklahoma is slightly behind Texas in the BCS, a win over Oklahoma State will put them over the top. That will give them a boost in the SOS, thus largely if not wholly eliminating that advantage by Texas, and it will also give them an added boost in the human polls.

Texas is ahead by a fair amount, but honestly I really don’t think it was as big enough of a lead as they needed to hang on. If Oklahoma beats OSU, much less by a big margin, I think Texas is still SOL.

Things certainly look better for them right now than they did when I posted the original fanpost, but I still wouldn’t want to take their odds.

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 23, 2008 9:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Okie State

will not beat the OU team on the field last night. Hopefully a different OU team will show up because I really want them to lose. But the team that played last night would be in the game with most NFL teams.

by 5026 on Nov 23, 2008 9:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs