10 Points: What the hell?

by Whistlin' Dixie on Dec 2, 2008 12:27 PM CST Comment 19 comments

Hey everyone, just wanted to get your take on the current line for the SECCG, as I was stunned when I saw the Gators favored by 10! My thoughts, this game is either going to go one or two ways, a close win (by the Tide, of course) - say 1 to 3 points - or it'll be a blowout, two touchdowns or more. With the defense we have and with our effectiveness on offense, I just don't see Florida been 10 points better than we are, period.

What's your take? Sucker bet, if you ask me - I know how I'm making a few extra bucks, this weekend!

Roll Tide Roll!

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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It will be close

Regardless of the winner, I think this will be within a touchdown. Take the bet.

Honestly, I wish we were 21 point underdogs or so, I think it helps get us in the right mood to play.

by KongAtTheGates on Dec 2, 2008 12:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Vegas...

is playin’ the ESPN highlight crowd like violins. With the WWL pimpin the Gators, and every media outlet proclaiming them the SEC’s best, it seems a good bet right?

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 2, 2008 12:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

i've got a bet goin with a co-worker

he’s a FL fan and thinks they are gonna win the SECCG. anyone who bets Bama over the Gators is gonna win cuz the Tide is not only gonna cover the spread, they are gonna blow it out of the water.

by bamagirl78 on Dec 2, 2008 12:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Vegas

Is pretty good at setting lines – have you seen the casinos there? They win a lot more than they lose.

I think the line is immaterial. If the game is close, Bama will win. We don’t win cose games. If Florida wins, it will be big.

You should bet the Gators – either your team wins the game, or you win money.

by skigator93 on Dec 2, 2008 3:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

but

when Bama wins, they will have covered the spread… so bet Bama and you win both ways :)

by bamagirl78 on Dec 2, 2008 3:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s not how Vegas makes money on lines. They’re actually pretty terrible at predicting the score, if you look at the numbers.

What they’re good at is setting the line in such a way that 50% bet one side and 50% bet the other. Setting the lines has nothing to do with who’s actually going to win, it has to do with who people THINK is going to win and by how much.

The Casinos don’t “win” by predicting the winner of the game, they win by having enough people take the losing side of the bet to more than cover the people on the winning side.

by PeteHoliday on Dec 2, 2008 3:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

^^^droppin knowledge!!!

RBR's KING of HIP-HOP...

by SpockJenkins on Dec 2, 2008 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

actually, the line starts with public perception on Sunday when the line comes out...

then by mid-week it jumps to evening out how much money is on either side, not how many bets are on either side. That’s why the books never loose, they adjust lines all the way up to gametime to make sure equal amounts of money are on either side, then charge 10% juice to the losers. That’s why Bama/Florida opened at 7 based on public perception. All the “big” money jumped on Florida, so then it jumped up to 10. Now it’s just a matter of monitoring the money and moving lines…

"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant

by TopDaddy on Dec 2, 2008 4:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly… but the money moving the line is public perception, too… only this time it’s the people willing to put their money where their mouth is.

by PeteHoliday on Dec 2, 2008 9:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We know all that

But you know when Vegas really wins big? When the line is right on the money and they collect vig from everyone with no payouts.

by skigator93 on Dec 2, 2008 9:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well if you want to make some money...

then bet all you can on the under of the 10 point line. Bama will play to win and Florida will not know what hit them.

by brandonh on Dec 2, 2008 10:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

10 is not enough!

This game will be close. In the first half maybe! The 10 points are a sucker bet and everyone taking Bama and the 10 their pockets are going to be a little lighter! Bama’s defense will be overmatched. Trust me that smashmouth, grind the clock, crap is not going to fly Sat. Didn’t Bama go to overtime with LSU? Bama fan is making the same mistake that the last 7 teams have made. Everyone talks about the offense of FLA but everyone overlooks the defense. A defense that gives up about 15 a game, a defense which has allowed only one huundred yard rusher. You and the rest of Bama Nation are going to have a bad bad bad weekend. Florida is tooooooooooo fast for your smashmouth defense. Nick Saban will see who the REAL man is in the SEC.

FLA 42 BAMA 20!

by Duval county GATOR on Dec 2, 2008 10:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

if you think

FLA is gonna hold Bama to 20 or that FLA is gonna put 42 on the board, YOU are the one who will be in for a shock. If FLA can’t get passed the line, how are they gonna put points on the board? Bama is gonna blitz like hell and fluster Tebow and he’s not gonna know what to do!

by bamagirl78 on Dec 3, 2008 8:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If Bama blitzes Tebow too much

He will make you pay. Tebow can read defenses. Who is going to cover our speedy WRs one-on-one when Tebow throws the hot route on the blitz? Putting your corners on an island to contain Louis Murphy or Deonte Thompson is just plain cruel.

by skigator93 on Dec 3, 2008 9:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That is what im worried about.

If we blitz and don’t get to him, im not 100% sure our DB’s can cover them. We haven’t really been pressured all year in the passing game, say for the UGA game. Its going to be interesting to see if they can hold up. It will be the first thing i look for on the 1st snap.

When you are an Alabama fan you have to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because i want to.

by bammer on Dec 3, 2008 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs