Julio vs. A.J. Green
When I heard that Julio Jones was named SEC freshman of the year, my initial reaction was "Well, no kidding, of course he was!" Imagine my surprise when I learned that there was a fair amount of grumbling about Jones' selection over Georgia's A.J. Green. Some of the complaints seem somewhat valid -- specifically, how can Julio be the best freshman in the conference, but only the second best freshman receiver?
Of course, that inconsistency doesn't mean that Julio was the wrong pick for Frosh of the Year... it could mean that Green was the wrong pick for the first team, right?
Paul at Georgia Sports Blog seems more than a little miffed about the award. He busted out the stats to make his case:
Julio Jones picked up the hardware instead of Georgia's AJ Green. This one was awarded by the SEC Media. You know what's even dumber? Julio Jones was named 2nd Team All-SEC behind Green by the same writers. Compare their stats:
[stats table snipped, check the link for the whole thing]
AJ Green had over 100 more receiving yards and twice as many touchdowns in fewer total games. Yet, Julio is Freshman of the Year? How many votes did Gary Danielson have in this thing?
It's a valid point, isn't it? Twice as many touchdowns is certainly something to be aware of when deciding who the conference's most outstanding freshman is. Of course, that's far from the only thing that matters.
For starters, the numbers that Julio put up depend directly on the style of the offense. Georgia's offense put up 3,360 passing yards this season while Alabama only threw for 2,219. Georgia threw 24 touchdowns to Alabama's 10. They completed almost 50 more passes.
Do you see where I'm going with this?
The reason that Jones seems like a more natural selection for the award is because he was a much larger portion of his team's passing game.
Getting to the numbers, A.J. Green accounted for less than a quarter of Georgia's receptions, 28% of their passing yards, and only a third of their touchdowns. Julio, on the other hand, was responsible for nearly 29% of the receptions, more than 38% of the passing yards, and an even 40% of the Tide's passing touchdowns.
Green and Jones both led their teams in receiving yards and Touchdowns, but Massaquoi had more receiving yards than Green, the same number of touchdowns, and was within 50 yards of Green's receiving yards.
Julio, on the other had, was the statistical leader in every receiving category, having almost double the number of receptions, and almost three times the number of yards, as the #2 receiver.
Every team that lined up against Georgia had to make a decision: which of those two outstanding receivers were they going to put their best corner on?
For Alabama, that was never even a consideration. Jones had to line up against the best defensive back -- sometimes the best two or three DBs -- on the field every snap. He was the Tide's only consistently dangerous receiver and nobody could stop him.
In short, Jones produced at a comparable level to Green from a raw statistics point of view and there's a strong case to be made that he produced at a higher level given the difference in scheme between the two teams. Further, Jones did it without the benefit of a second amazing wide receiver to distract the defenses and with a less prolific passing quarterback.
Suffice it to say that I'm just as confused as the Georgia fans are: why on earth was Julio second team?
FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.
33 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
it'd be nice...
if they can develope Hanks and Maze a bit more, then that’d definitely free up Jones to be even more amazing than he was this year.
Im telling you
Scott will be the man….
When you are an Alabama fan you have to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because i want to.
based on raw talent
… Jones wins everyday of the week. Twice on Sunday. Everyone knows that if we were pass happy and had more receiving threats that Jones would have daunting stats.
Just think about our team this year if we had consistent weapons at WR besides JJ. We would be extremely scary.
Let's not talk about him winning on Sunday too soon!
I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR
great points
i definitely think Julio would have gotten AJ"s numbers if he played in Georgia’s system. the SECCG really brought out the importance of having a 2nd receiving threat besides julio. hopefully for ’09, somebody will step up.
BJ Scott....
When you are an Alabama fan you have to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because i want to.
The thing
I find most amazing, is that Julio Jones has his biggest games in the biggest games!
Spot On.
I hope you don’t mind a Gators fan chiming in, but I couldn’t help myself. People often get lost in counting stats and ignore rates. The same happens when comparing Tebow to the Big XII QBs, for instance. It’s clear to me that Jones was the better player, both subjectively and objectively, even though they’re both scary good. great analysis and nice write-up. Cheers!
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
I'd take either
Both are probably amongst the top 5 overall WRs in the nation, as freshmen.
They are both tall and have great hands – Julio is stronger though, so that might give him the slightest of edges.
Both will have some problems next season with new quarterback out there.
It can only get better for Julio....
and yes that is a knock on Wilson’s vision and passing ability.
Its not a knock when you are telling the truth
JP knew he wasn’t always the best QB on the field but what we needed this year was his leadership. Jones will go down as the greatest reciever ever to play at Alabama, he’ll get his numbers.
When you are an Alabama fan you have to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because i want to.
It may not get better for Julio in 2009, though...
…and yes that is a knock on every returning QBs woeful lack of experience.
by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 9, 2008 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
Do yall have any guys coming in next season?
As far as big QB prospects? No offense but I hope not!!!
Star Jackson and A.J. McCarron
Jackson
http://cfn.scout.com/a.z?s=451&p=8&c=1&nid=3051392
McCarron
http://cfn.scout.com/a.z?s=451&p=8&c=1&nid=3024151
When you are an Alabama fan you have to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because i want to.
I expect...
…to see Greg McElroy 80% of the time, Star Jackson 20% of the time, and A.J. 0% of the time in ’09.
by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 9, 2008 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
Hmmm
I think Star gets the job. McElroy is a fine QB but Star will get the STARting gig.
When you are an Alabama fan you have to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because i want to.
I really
think Satr gets the job as well…he will give us much more options at QB, and McElwain is known for developing young QB’s.
All valid points
I will start by saying that I really don’t see a difference in performance between the two. Green had better overall numbers, but as pointed out here, he did have an offense with a better quarterback and more passing. There are a few points of contention that I would like to bring up, however. Please keep in mind, I am neither disagreeing with the points made, nor am I knocking Julio Jones, I simply think that to every to, there is a fro.
You start off with this:
The reason that Jones seems like a more natural selection for the award is because he was a much larger portion of his team’s passing game.
followed later with this:
Green and Jones both led their teams in receiving yards and Touchdowns, but Massaquoi had more [receptions] than Green, the same number of touchdowns, and was within 50 yards of Green’s receiving yards.
Julio, on the other had, was the statistical leader in every receiving category, having almost double the number of receptions, and almost three times the number of yards, as the #2 receiver.
In my opinion, this argument is giving reasons for Julio Jones being the most valuable wide receiver to his team, as opposed to the freshman of the year. If we are comparing who had a higher percentage of the offense, then the numbers you list certainly show the results. However, it should also be pointed out (and is, indirectly) that A.J. Green amassed these numbers AS the number two receiver. I will touch more on this shortly. Also, we are not comparing the player that was most valuable to their offense, we are discussing the freshman of the year honors. To prove this point, let’s compare Julio Jones with Georgia Tech’s number one receiver, Demaryius Thomas. Thomas works in an offense that, like Alabama’s, is focused on the run, although with even less of a passing attack than Alabama. Of Tech’s 1140 passing yards, Thomas accounts for 595 (52 percent). Of Tech’s 66 completions, 36 (54 percent) went to Thomas. Of Tech’s five passing touchdowns, three (60 percent) were to Thomas. Does this make Demaryius Thomas a more valuable receiver to his team than Julio Jones was to Alabama? Based on the numbers, yes. Does it make Thomas a better receiver than Jones? Certainly not.
Moving right along, we get to this point:
Every team that lined up against Georgia had to make a decision: which of those two outstanding receivers were they going to put their best corner on?
For Alabama, that was never even a consideration. Jones had to line up against the best defensive back — sometimes the best two or three DBs — on the field every snap. He was the Tide’s only consistently dangerous receiver and nobody could stop him (emphasis added).
Now, it is pointed out that Green was the number two receiver to Massaquoi, whereas Jones was the number one, therefore Green drew lesser coverage. However, it would be erroneous to say that Green drew lesser coverage every time, or that he never received double or triple coverage. In fact, when Green caught the game winners against Kentucky and Auburn, there were atleast three players surrounding him in Kentucky, and he was in double bracket coverage against Auburn, but I digress.
My point boils down to this: you have to include the pros and the cons of the points you are making (the to and fro). Did Julio Jones account for more of Alabama’s offense than A.J. Green did of Georgia’s? Yes. Was Julio Jones a number one receiver who received the majority of attention on defense whereas A.J. Green had Mohamed Massaquoi to help distract the defense? Yes. At the same time, was Julio Jones a number one receiver and A.J. Green a number two? Yes. Did A.J. Green lose production numbers due to having another marquee receiver (this same distraction) on the field with him, something that Julio Jones did not have to deal with? Yes.
Lastly, I’ll say that I am a Georgia fan, though I have tried to give points that keep this argument intellectual as opposed to partisan. Certainly, I would rather have A.J. Green be considered freshman of the year, but I am biased. What there is no debate about, however, is that the AP Voters need to screw their heads on straight. If they legitimately think A.J. Green is an All-SEC first string WR and Julio Jones second string, A.J. Green should be Freshman of the Year. If they legitimately think that Julio Jones is Freshman of the Year over A.J. Green, then Julio Jones should be listed on the first string roster and A.J. Green should be on the second string. That much, in my mind, is certain.
that quite possibly could be the case
the only thing that goes against that is that they mail in their votes, as opposed to doing it by committee…but maybe that’s just the way it worked out. who knows.
by hailtogeorgia on Dec 9, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions
Julio
Outside of the numbers that Julio put up, his impact was much greater. Julio was such a dominant player that he required at least double coverage most of the time. This really limited an opponent’s ability to put too many players near the line of scrimmage.
Julio was an integral part of the running game, almost up there with the RBs and the OL. He changed the way defenses played Alabama; without him Alabama is clearly a much more one-diminesional team. That is why Julio was the SEC Freshmen of the Year. He may not have the numbers of some of the other wide receivers in the SEC, but no one had a larger impact.
Kenny, while I agree with you that Julio changed the way defenses played Alabama, I really don’t see his impact being that much greater than the impact A.J. Green had on Georgia’s offense. It only took a few weeks for Georgia’s two-headed monster to become known as Georgia’s three-headed monster of Stafford, Moreno, and Green. While Julio’s impact may have been a bit more obvious (because Alabama really had no other go-to option at receiver), to say that “his impact was much greater”, in my opinion, is simply untrue. While Stafford has had decent receivers to throw to in his three years, A.J. Green, by far, has been the first truly spectacular one. Who was the last big name receiver to come through Georgia? Mohamed Massaquoi and Matthew Stafford had their best years of their careers the same year that A.J. Green got to Georgia. Think that was simply because they were more mature? No way. Green really blew the top off of Georgia’s passing attack, as well as adding another facet to keep the defenses honest in regards to loading up on the run. He had atleast two game-winning touchdown catches late in the fourth quarter, and I can’t even remember how many unbelievable catches made strictly by body control alone. Keep in mind, I’m not saying Julio did not do outstanding things himself and lift the Alabama offense to a level it previously would not have reached, I simply think you are discounting the impact that A.J. Green had at Georgia.
by hailtogeorgia on Dec 9, 2008 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
Julio More of an all around contributor
I think that the voters got it right. While I think it was close. I think Green was the more productive pass catcher. Therefore he should have been first team WR. I however think that one has to consider that while being a productive pass catcher Julio was also a fantastic blocker probably the best blocking fresman wide reciever I have ever seen. Julio was also a solid contributor on special teams. Julio was also asked to be the leader of Alabamas receiving core and steped up and performed that duty as well. Green was not really asked to do any of that other stuff all he had to do was go catch footballs which he di a fantastic job of.
Roll Tide!!!
agree with everything except special teams.
Julio has only played a few plays on special teams and not really done much. the number 8 on special teams your thinking of is Chris (i think that’s his first name) Rogers.
It is Chris Rogers but I was thinking of Julio
The other number 8 this is standout on kick coverage teams is Chris Rogers. I was however thinking of Julio and how he has been our second kick returner most of the year.
“Did A.J. Green lose production numbers due to having another marquee receiver (this same distraction) on the field with him, something that Julio Jones did not have to deal with? Yes.”
Your argument relies on the assumption that there are a finite and fixed number of passing yards available and adding a second wide receiver diminishes the opportunities for the first, a fact that simply can’t be substantiated.
In fact, when it comes to passing offenses, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. If you have two outstanding wide receivers you will have the opportunity to gain far more passing yards than if you only have one, and it’s likely that both of them will receive more yards than if they had been on the field without the other. Why? Because when there’s only one real threat (a la Alabama) a defense can focus. When there are two — and it hardly matters which one is where on the depth chart — the defense has to split its attention.
In fact, with enough stars, you can spread a defense so thin that you have a glaring mismatch on every play, allowing an almost limitless number of passing yards.
Even if you’re talking about double coverage . . . what DC in his right mind is going to put the #1 and #2 DBs on Green and let his #3 try to lock down Mo? Not going to happen. More likely, I think, is #1/#3 or even #2/#3 for a double-coverage situation, and you can bet that in those situations the free safety has more of an eye on the single-covered wide receiver.
The bottom line is that Julio Jones faced more difficult match-ups because he was the only game in town, He operated in an offense for which passing was a novelty, and he still managed to put up numbers substantially similar to Green’s (and by some metrics, better than Green’s).
I also think the difference in impact is pretty clear. If A.J. Green isn’t in the game, Georgia probably still has approximately the same record. Without Julio, I wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up staring at the Auburn game hoping to get our 7th win. He is that important to the offense.
I just don’t see an argument for A.J. Green that doesn’t start and end with “OMG TOUCHDOWNS!!”
Not quite the point I was making
I can see how you took it that way, but I wasn’t trying to say that there are a finite number of yards that are automatically going to be divided up evenly between receivers (as you seem to imply). My point was that A.J. Green played in an offense in which he, in no uncertain terms, was the number two receiver. Julio Jones was the number one receiver. I am not speaking of where they fall on the depth chart, I am referring to who the quarterback will throw the ball to first the majority of the time. In the case of Georgia, I believe that Massaquoi, as a talented senior, takes that honor. With that being said, if there are two great receivers, can they still rack up a lot of yards? Yes. Do they sacrifice targets from the quarterback to the each other? Yes. It’s a commonly accepted idea and not coming from left field. Terrell Owens didn’t look at Roy Williams coming to Dallas and say “Hey, now I can get less double coverage and do more with what I get”, instead, he was unhappy at the idea that he was no longer going to be the undisputed top receiver in Dallas and would be sacrificing catches to Roy Williams. Yes, Julio Jones had a higher frequency of seeing difficult match-ups than A.J. Green. I would hardly say that passing is a novelty for an Alabama offense that put up more than 2000 passing yards. It’s a novelty for Georgia Tech, who had six passing attempts in their game against Georgia. Opinion is opinion here, and I certainly respect yours, but I think that without A.J. Green, Georgia would be at atleast five losses (Kentucky and Auburn) and possibly more (South Carolina). Julio Jones is certainly more important to the Alabama offense than A.J. Green is to Georgia’s, I simply don’t think the difference is that vast.
Oh, and not to leave you disappointed, “OMG TOUCHDOWNS!!”.
by hailtogeorgia on Dec 9, 2008 4:14 PM CST up reply actions
Body of work vs. Superhero final month
Taking into account the entire season and receiving stats, I can understand why AJ might come out on top. But, Julio went from having a very good season to total dominance in the last month of the season. It’s almost like he developed his own gravitational pull. AJ Green is a great receiver, no doubt, but if you polled every SEC team not named Georgia, I’d be shocked if anyone would take him over Julio.
"That rug really tied the room together."
Not that this has any bearing on the decision... at all...
But Julio did win the head to head… lol
Guess they wanted to fix what got messed up with Texas, OU??
by tidefanstuckatlsu on Dec 9, 2008 8:49 PM CST reply actions
Wow...
…I can’t wait for the “Jif vs. Skippy” thread….
by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 10, 2008 10:45 AM CST reply actions
You really...
…have a unique sense of humor. hahahaha
"I hate everything orange"
It's all about Crimson - ROLL TIDE!!!

by 






















