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Running Back Success Rates Against Florida (SECCG)

To refresh your memories (or if this is the first time you've seen this), each individual rush is considered on it's own, and measured by it's "success." A run is considered successful if it gets 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, and 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down. This is a much more accurate overall picture of how well a running back does in a game than just the total yardage or ypc averages because it ignores big run outliers that can skew those kinds of stats.  Only two backs carried the ball in the 20-31 loss, and the numbers actually paint a pretty good picture of why we fell in Atlanta.  First up, leading rusher Glen Coffee:


vs Florida / 12.6.08 Rushing Receiving
Rush Yards Avg TD Rec Yards Avg TD
Glen Coffee 21 112 5.3 1 1 7 7.0 0

Glencoffeerbsuccessratevsfloridaseccg_medium
Overall Coffee remained pretty steady in his familiar mid-60% range, but looking at the halves we see that he had a stellar 80% rate in the early goings before falling off to 55% in the second half.  Contrasting that, though, is Mark Ingram:


vs Florida / 12.6.08 Rushing Receiving
Rush Yards Avg TD Rec Yards Avg TD
Mark Ingram 8 21 2.6 1 0 0 0 0

Markingramrbsuccessratevsfloridaseccg_medium
Ingram, who didn't have a single successful rush in the first half, suddenly found his feet in the second with a 100% success rate that included a 3rd down conversion and a TD run.  All of those runs came on a single drive in the third quarter, though, and began at the UF 15 after the four straight successful runs by Coffee helped engineer a lengthy drive that started at the Alabama 9.  He never carried again, and Coffee's last few successful rushes helped set up the final FG, but he didn't have any more successful rushes in the game, which certainly didn't help the Tide offense and it's inability to stay on the field in the fourth quarter.
 

 

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The first down bomb to Julio...

That seems to be the call that everyone is scratching their heads about. I haven’t gone back to look at the play and not sure you could tell on tv anyway, but was there a second option for JPW to go to on that play, or was it all or nothing? McElwain is taking all the heat for the call, but I’m wondering if JPW forced it because Julio was double-covered and really didn’t seem to have any separation. If not, then it REALLY doesn’t make a lot of sense, but if so, then JPW probably should have looked at 2nd or 3rd option.
The way he dropped back and loaded up, it looked like he was going to Julio no matter what. Just wondering.

by yellowhammer on Dec 9, 2008 9:23 AM CST reply actions  

JP has a problme

Just like last year when he was zeroed in on #22….this year it was just a different #…

I have rewatched the game twice and many times you see other recievers open but he never looked their way. This is something that i hope is fixed with a new QB. Its called going through your progression….

When you are an Alabama fan you have to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because i want to.

by bammer on Dec 9, 2008 10:14 AM CST up reply actions  

He's gotten much better...

…but I imagine he felt the pressure of needing a big play and tried to hit Julio deep like he had earlier in the game. It actually wasn’t a horribly bad read, they were playing man with safety help, and had he aired it out more Julio could have very easily run under it, but JP just doesn’t have the arm for that and the safety was able to come over in time.

by Todd on Dec 9, 2008 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Nice Breakdown.

I love this approach to the running game! Did you do this yourself, or does someone out there do this for everyone? I was a bit surprised that Ingram wasn’t more of a factor in your play calling, especially since you held the lead for so long. Nice work.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Dec 10, 2008 4:55 AM CST reply actions  

I do the numbers...

…but the metric is something that OTS came up with (or if he didn’t come up with it, he at least introduced it to RBR). As for Ingram, he hasn’t been as consistent as Coffee and has made the same mistakes that plague true freshmen running back everywhere, namely trying to find cutbacks that aren’t there and use his speed to get to the outside, and losing yardage instead of getting the “only” two or three available behind his blockers. He’s going to be a beast, but I’m glad we have Coffee (and Upchurch when healthy) to come in when he is struggling.

by Todd on Dec 10, 2008 12:58 PM CST up reply actions  

He got it...

…from a site called Football Outsiders or something like that.

by Nico2.0 on Dec 10, 2008 1:00 PM CST up reply actions  

But...

…as Todd’s chart showed, Ingram wasn’t making those mistakes in the 2nd half (prolly something CNS whispered to him gently at halftime), so I was a little surprised myself. Spilled milk, though.

by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 10, 2008 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Like I noted, though...

….Coffee did the work getting him to the red zone, where you’re not really looking to make those kind of plays. Once in the red zone, where things are so compacted, it’s just put your head down and push as far as running backs go.

by Todd on Dec 10, 2008 2:50 PM CST up reply actions  

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