Early lines favor Clemson by 5
You know football season is getting close when Vegas decide to get in on the action. This week, several of the bigger sports books have released a limited number of lines on games for the 2008 NCAA football season.
As usual, I’m less interested in the information for investment purposes but rather as a barometer of how the matchups are being perceived (particularly given the variance in early-season polls). And according to the Las Vegas Sports Commission Clemson will be favored by five against Alabama at the Georgia Dome on Aug. 30.
HT: Fanhouse
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Ummmm'kay
Gambling bad. Clemson -5, good call. I’d Take ‘em 17-13 (and, yes, that hurts to type).
by Stuck in the Plains on
Jul 16, 2008 6:06 PM CDT
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there is going to be so much more offence than that
Think about their running game and our passing game, and think about how we match up against the run and they match up against the passing game and I think we’ll see so much more scoring.
Cause bama's pluck and gritt has writ her name in crimson flame.
by pluckandgritt on
Jul 16, 2008 6:20 PM CDT
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ahhh true
BUT, if you watched last year’s Clemson opener, good running D’s (e.g., the ‘Noles) = sucktastic football.
by Stuck in the Plains on
Jul 16, 2008 7:36 PM CDT
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it's a question of perception at this point
what i find interesting is how the spread puts it within a touchdown (on a field clemson arguably can call home due to playing there in their bowl) while there is a pretty wide disparity in the polls themselves over the ability of the two teams. most of the preliminary polls put clemson in the low teens to ten itself while ‘bama isn’t ranked.
by kleph on
Jul 16, 2008 6:31 PM CDT
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Good point...
Personally, as an economics guy, I love predictive markets and the like, and have always been intrigued by the point spreads and betting lines.
And you are right, given the disparities between how the two teams are ranked in the pre-season, you would think the spread would be a good bit higher. I can think of three reasons that might explain that:
1. Clemson is generally highly-touted in the pre-season, but they have never been able to live up to the hype once those Autumn Saturdays roll around. They’ve never made a BCS game, won the ACC, or appeared in the ACC Championship Game. The betting class feels that Clemson will simply not live up to the expectations as per usual.
2. Saban experienced a surge in his second year at LSU, and with the incoming recruiting class and the lack of losing any truly great players from a year ago, the betting class expects Alabama to have a pretty big surge and be better than everyone expects.
3. The disparities between the two teams results from Clemson being the best ACC team while Alabama is likely only to be the fourth or fifth best SEC team. The betting class thinks that the SEC is stronger relative to the ACC point that a game between a middle-of-the-pack SEC team is going to be very close when playing even the best ACC team at a neutral conference.
by outsidethesidelines on
Jul 16, 2008 7:31 PM CDT
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i completely agree
and i am very interested to see how the lines change (or don’t) as the official polls start coming out.
by kleph on
Jul 17, 2008 9:05 AM CDT
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wow...
am I the only one having visions of this not being that close??? Bama by 10+ as Clemson comes out struggling and rusty and Bama surprises the hell outta everyone…
bet on that!
RBR's KING of HIP-HOP...
by SpockJenkins on
Jul 16, 2008 7:29 PM CDT
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I'll wager a frosty beverage on Bama by 10
And it’s a wager I’d be DELIGHTED to lose.
by Stuck in the Plains on
Jul 16, 2008 7:37 PM CDT
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sounds good...
RBR's KING of HIP-HOP...
by SpockJenkins on
Jul 16, 2008 7:38 PM CDT
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Pick'em
We should fashion some kind of pick’em game this year, that would be awesome. We could maybe do SEC + top 25 and maybe selected others (michigan, UAB, Troy, etc.)
Cause bama's pluck and gritt has writ her name in crimson flame.
by pluckandgritt on
Jul 17, 2008 12:08 AM CDT
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Ah...
Now that sounds like a damn good idea.
Me, Todd, and Nico always do the pick’em thread anyway, and we could just all of the readers respond in the comments. Just do it every week and keep track of stuff.
Sounds like a great idea to me. Actually, Todd and I were just talking about which games to pick.
by outsidethesidelines on
Jul 17, 2008 8:21 AM CDT
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I have (what I think)...
....will be an amusing way to rate the games each week, and we’ll have to set up a pick em with ESPN or Yahoo! whenever they get them set up so y’all can compete too.
by Todd on
Jul 17, 2008 8:29 AM CDT
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That would be fun.
I usually do that with my friends, anyways. Sounds like a good idea.
by Kenny483 on
Jul 17, 2008 8:33 AM CDT
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Yeah I would be down with that man.
Would be cool to see how us lowly readers compare to the might that is the triple-threat trio.
Roll Tide, Bitches!!!
by BamaReturns07 on
Jul 17, 2008 11:20 AM CDT
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Which games to pick?
I say every SEC game, along with whatever national games are of interest. Make it an even 10 games each week?
by Bobby Briggs on
Jul 17, 2008 2:36 PM CDT
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If it gets to be much more than 10...
...it is a pain in the arse to keep up with.
by Nico2.0 on
Jul 17, 2008 2:49 PM CDT
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Last year...
Last year we did all games involving SEC teams, and then a handful of OOC games. At absolute most, it was like 15 games… most weeks only had somewhere between 9-11 games.
The following is a list of OOC games that I sent to Todd a bit back that we could do in the opening weeks:
Week One
Southern Cal at Virginia
Illinois v. Missouri
Michigan State v. Cal
Week Two
Oregon State at Penn State
South Florida at Central Florida
Week Three
Kansas at South Florida
Michigan at Notre Dame
Ohio State at USC
Week Four
West Virginia at Colorado
Boise State at Oregon
Miami at Texas A&M
by outsidethesidelines on
Jul 17, 2008 4:55 PM CDT
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I like this...
can we get a trophy at the end? I feel the winner deserves a “major award” (c) dad from A Christmas Story
RBR's KING of HIP-HOP...
by SpockJenkins on
Jul 17, 2008 5:44 PM CDT
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Week Three...
The team I hate most after Auburn and Tennessee is Notre Dame and never root for them, but I would love Michigan to lose every freaking game this year just to make Brian Cook and Rich Rod miserable. Damn, I can’t have it BOTH ways.
"I hate everything orange"
It's all about Crimson - ROLL TIDE!!!
by bamavicki on
Jul 17, 2008 5:49 PM CDT
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yea...
that AU vs. WV game is one where you want the blimp to crash into the stadium…no one gets hurt, of course, but both teams lose…
RBR's KING of HIP-HOP...
by SpockJenkins on
Jul 17, 2008 7:50 PM CDT
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scratch that...
I like WV…EFF AUBURN…EFF MICHIGAN…TENNESSEE, and all them others…
yezzur…
RBR's KING of HIP-HOP...
by SpockJenkins on
Jul 17, 2008 7:51 PM CDT
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we should really...
...only do the good SEC games…who cares about the scrub 1AA games.
by Todd on
Jul 17, 2008 8:52 PM CDT
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I agree...
I think we should exempt some games from the list. Included in that should be, I think…
Arkansas v. Western Illinois
Auburn v. UT-Martin
LSU v. North Texas
Ole Miss v. Samford
MSU v. Southeastern Louisiana
Florida v. Citadel
Georgia v. Georgia Southern
Kentucky v. Norfok
Kentucky v. Akron
Kentucky v. Temple
South Carolina v. Wofford
Tennessee v. Wyoming
by outsidethesidelines on
Jul 17, 2008 10:11 PM CDT
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well, we probably should emphasize the sec west – even the scrub matches. i’m a partial advocate of football outsiders “guts vs stomps” theory and this is an ideal way to keep track of those games in terms of our nearest rivals.
by kleph on
Jul 18, 2008 5:50 AM CDT
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Ah...
Always great to see a fellow FO reader. You picked up PFP 2008 yet? If not, it’s well worth the money.
As for the picks, I’m a fairly big advocate of the guts v. stomps theory as well, but that’s not the issue here. We’ll keep track of those games, of course, but picking them is just an exercise in futility. The problem you run into is that everyone picks the obvious winner anyway, so at the end of the day it’s all a wash. It’s basically just padding the overall record of everyone, but not changing the ranking order.
by outsidethesidelines on
Jul 18, 2008 8:50 AM CDT
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it’s a trick to get these publications in peru. i’ve got phil steele and “yea alabama” coming to me next week (thanks todd!) but i’ll probably have to wait to go through PFP08 till i get back in country at the end of the year. but that’s ok. i’m not really that interested in the pro game anymore so going through the stuff on FO is less for what happens on any given sunday than understanding the nuances of the game as a whole.
by kleph on
Jul 19, 2008 5:48 AM CDT
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