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2007 SEC Defensive Sack Rates

One of the statistics I tracked last year at the old blog was sack rates. Basically, despite all of the hype, defensive sacks created on its own is a pretty meaningless number, and only takes on real meaning when you put it into the context of pass attempts. Long story short, a team that piles up a lot of sacks can be a relatively poor pass rushing team, and a team that has only a relatively few sacks can in fact be a good pass rushing team, depending on how many passes they have thrown against them.

So, what I have done is taken the total number of sacks created by a particular team in SEC play in 2007, and divided that by the total number of pass attempts against the same team. That division yields a percentage of passing plays that I call Adjusted Sack Rate, which of course is the percentage of passes that resulted in a sack. Bottom line, by looking at rates instead of raw numbers, we get a more accurate picture of which teams actually rushed the passer the best in 2007.

The following is how the SEC teams ranked in terms of Adjusted Sack Rate in 2007:

Dsrgo0_medium

One other metric to consider is the average yards lost per sack. It goes without saying that all sacks are not created equal; some sacks have big losses of yardage, while others often lose very few yards. So let's look at the SEC in 2007 in terms of average yards lost per sack:

Ylsa7_medium

Now, a few general thoughts on a handful of teams:

  • Georgia led the conference in ASR, and did so with a highly impressive posting. The interesting thing about the Dawgs, however, is that they are the ultimate tale of two seasons. In the first four SEC games, they couldn't get to the quarterback at all, getting only four sacks on 124 passing attempts (3.2% ASR). In the final four conference games, however, UGA went on an absolute tear, racking up 17 sacks on only 108 passing attempts, giving them a whopping ASR of over 15%. And then, of course, they racked up 13 more sacks against Georgia Tech and Hawai'i on only 89 passing attempts. Bottom line, the way that we UGA rushed the quarterback in the second half of the season was simply done at a level that I have not seen before.
  • LSU posted a good ASR, but it's a bit suspect in a lot of ways. In 2006 they posted an Adjusted Sack Rate of almost 11 percent, but this past year they barely came in at a seven percent rate. Moreover, the pass rush was highly inconsistent. If you take away the Fifth Annual Alabama Sack Fest Alabama game, LSU is left with only 12 sacks on 230 passing attempts, putting them with an ASR of 5.2%, below the league average. Bottom line, despite having a ton of talent and a huge game against the Tide, LSU was often a team in 2007 that struggled to generate a consistent pass rush. Moreover, though I do not have a strength of schedule metric devised yet, if I did LSU's ASR would only fall further. Their conference schedule included six of the seven worst offensive lines, but did not include Tennessee, the team that had the lowest offensive sack rate perhaps ever (it should be noted, of course, that LSU did face Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game, where they did not get a single sack on 40 pass attempts).
  • Vanderbilt surprisingly finished second in the conference in ASR, but the number isn't as impressive once you go a bit deeper. First and foremost, they did finish dead last in the conference in average yards per lost per sack. However, perhaps more telling is that Vanderbilt had a poor pass defense -- more on that later -- and that points to the notion that while Vanderbilt may been piling up a bunch of sacks, they were doing so with a lot of heavy blitzes that, while it did result in a lot of sacks, also resulted in a lot of success for their opponents as they threw the football.
  • Alabama, despite switching to an aggressive, blitz-heavy defensive scheme in 2007, barely saw it's ASR budge from 2006 levels, when we ran the soft zones of the 3-3-5. During the season, I often noted that the athleticism in the front seven simply wasn't there, and I still feel that to be the case. Darren Mustin provided no pass rushing threat, Rolando McClain was a tad bit big to rush the passer effectively, neither Bobby Greenwood or Brandon Deaderick got anything going, and Gilberry got by on pure effort alone. Keith Saunders, manning the hybrid end / linebacker position designed to rush the passer off the edge, ended up with zero sacks and zero quarterback hurries in conference play. The problem is, I'm afraid none of the aforementioned shortcomings are going to get much better in 2008.
  • The Tennessee pass rush was quite possibly the worst we've seen in modern times in the SEC. It's not just that they finished dead last in the SEC in Adjusted Sack Rate, it goes deeper than that. Before racking up six sacks on 62 pass attempts against Kentucky in the season finale, Tennessee had gotten only six sacks on 237 passing attempts. In other words, in the first seven games of conference play in 2008, Tennessee had an Adjusted Sack Rate of 2.5 percent. And making matters even worse, in the rare situation that they did actually generate a sack, it generally went for very short yardage. All told, the Vols finished next to last in the conference in average yards lost per sack. I don't have very much historical data for these metrics, mind you, but it's hard to imagine a pass rush being any worse than this. And for all of the talk among the Tennessee people about their struggles in the secondary, I don't care if they have four All-Americans in the defensive backfield, if they cannot rush the passer any better than this, the results won't be pretty.

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Question?

I know the guys we have right now are not very capable of sacking the QB. Do we have anyone coming in who may prove to be a true threat to actually sack every now and again?

Also, if you know you cannot sack how does this change the way you play offense? Last year I was scared to death against Houston. I mean we seemingly had the game won, but basically could not do anything to even slow down their attack. Yet it seemed our offense had gone conservative. I think going to a conservative offense when you are up on a running team may be fine, but when it is a passing team, and you know their QB will have all day then you know they can catch up. Does this not mandate that you keep throwing even when somewhat trying to run out the clock? I was kinda proud in the bowl game when we passed very late to sustain a drive. I felt like conservative play, with our lack of sacks, would lead to defeat.

by 5026 on Jul 28, 2008 3:00 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts...

We’ve definitely got a lot of great athletes coming in, and they will eventually be able to rush the passer very well, but how much can you count on true freshmen? I don’t know, we’ll just have to wait and see. The raw talent and athleticism is there, but there is no experience whatsoever and they will be behind their competitions in terms of S&C. We’ll see soon enough.

As for the conservative offense… it’s a good idea with a big lead. When you’ve got a big lead - such as a 31-10 lead against Arkansas, a 23-0 lead against Houston, and a 27-0 lead against Colorado - the biggest enemy you have is time. You go conservative in order to run the clock, shorten the game, and as a result give your opponent fewer possessions—i.e. fewer chances to score points. It’s a sound strategy, but the problem was we didn’t execute it. Instead of consistently banging out first downs and milking the clock, our offense generally sputtered in a nightmare of three and outs and turnovers. With us being unable to move the ball and drain the clock, the games were stretched out, and our opponents were able to fight their way back into things.

by outsidethesidelines on Jul 28, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Vanderbilt University defense

You stated that in 2007 VU had a “bad” defense. Ask Steve Spurrier if he agrees with that assesment. SC (at the time #6 in the country) could only score two field goals against Vandy for a grand total of 6 points. One game does not a strong defense make.

However, check the final national rankings on defense and you’ll find Vanderbilt at #16. And near the top of the SEC.

‘nuf said.

by VanDSIRROM on Jul 28, 2008 3:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Exactly...

Poor pass defense, not poor overall defense.

I’ll have more on that later this week.

by outsidethesidelines on Jul 28, 2008 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This further supports...

my theory that LSU’s D-line was completely over hyped last year, and personally let me down on several occasions, most notably the Kentucky game. Our D-line was banged up most of the year, but what was supposed to be our strength, in my opinion was only a little above average for the SEC.

I wonder what your stats would look like if you subtracted the min and max performances for every team?

by LSU Jonno on Jul 28, 2008 3:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I can tell you...

I wonder what your stats would look like if you subtracted the min and max performances for every team?

For most of the league, factoring out min and max performances wouldn’t make much of a difference. Every single team in the conference had at least one game with no sacks, so factoring out the min wouldn’t really make any difference. And, factoring out the max generally wouldn’t make any big difference because very few teams had a game that with so many sacks that it grossly impacted their ASR.

The only two teams that it would really impact are LSU and Tennessee. With LSU, you’d factor out the Alabama Sack Fest, and with Tennessee you’d factor out the Kentucky game. If you did that, LSU would fall to an average - maybe slightly below average - pass rushing team, and while Tennessee would still be the worst pass rushing team in the conference, they would go from being worst by a comfortable margin to being worst by a huge margin.

by outsidethesidelines on Jul 28, 2008 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We Really Struggled to Get a Pass Rush

Our lack of pass rush was one of the more frustrating aspects of last year’s play, and I think there are several reasons for it:

1. We used a conservative, little-blitzing defensive scheme.
2. The injury to starting defensive tackle Charles Alexander had a dramatic effect on the defense for the rest of the season.
3. Arguably our best pass-rusher, Tyson Jackson, was often assigned with the task of hanging back and trying to bat balls. He batted a lot of balls down, and still had the most QB hurries on the team, despite not getting a lot of sacks.
4. Of course, the injury to Dorsey affected the team’s play late in the season.

I really and truly believe that if the DL stays healthy this year, it will be a better overall unit than last year. Not a lot of teams would have been as good as we were last year if its top 4 defensive tackles ALL were either out of the lineup or playing significantly below 100% for much of the year.

Richard Pittman

by Richard Pittman on Jul 28, 2008 8:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree...

...I think it is possible that LSU may have the best DL and OL in the SEC. I am excited, especially to see what they can do on the DL. It seems like they grow 300lb lineman, with freakish athleticsm.

by Kenny483 on Jul 29, 2008 6:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also agree

I think if you were to time the sacks, or use some other metric to measure the effect of secondary coverage, you would find that lots of LSU’s sacks resulted from excellent coverage by the corners and safeties, later in the game, when opposition was trying to get big yards.

I’m still not convinced that this wasn’t Pelini’s design – containment vs. penetration.

lsutigerbait.blogspot.com

by TigerBait on Aug 6, 2008 8:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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