BlogPoll Calling: OTS's Ballot

You know the usual caveats that apply with preseason polls. Nevertheless, here goes my ballot:

1. Southern Cal: Say what you will, but the Trojans are the most talented team in the country, and you know they will be in serious contention 'til the very end.  As long as they get by Ohio State, there is little reason not to expect them to be in Miami come the second week of January. Want an interesting factoid? Since USC really took off in the middle of 2002, they have played 23 ranked opponents and ended with a 21-2 record against those opponents. The average margin of victory in those games is over three touchdowns. Those numbers are nothing short of mind-boggling. As much as people love to talk about how the weakness of the Pac 10 gives USC a cakewalk, it is those very teams that usually give them the most trouble. When they actually do play top teams, they generally blow them out of the water. I expect the same to happen with yet another overrated Buckeye team, and that should have them headed to Miami.

2. Florida: The Gators offense in 2007 was the most productive that the SEC has seen in years, and all indicators point to an even more powerful attack in 2008. The defense is a concern, particularly given the recent outbreak of injuries at the safety position, but surely they will improve over a year ago, and frankly given how prolific the offense should be it is not like they have to play all that well anyway. I figure you combine an offense for the ages with a decent defense, and it yields a lot of wins. As long as Tebow stays healthy, there is no reason this team should not be in the thick of national championship contention.

3. Oklahoma: BCS struggles aside, the Sooners have been the class of the Big XII for years on end now, and I really see no reason to think that will end in 2008. Sam Bradford should have another big year, the offense should continue to excel, and there's just too much talent and depth on the defensive side of the ball not to have another good unit. Moreover, the schedule for the Sooners is an absolute dream. They get nothing but cupcakes in the first six weeks of the season before playing Texas, and honestly this team really only has three "tough" games on the entire regular season schedule (Texas, Kansas, and Texas Tech, the latter two of which are in Norman). If you're looking for a schedule to make a national championship run with, this one is what you are looking for. OU's recent lack of consistency keeps me from putting them higher, but pragmatically speaking this team has as good of a chance of hoisting the crystal ball as anyone in the country.

4. Georgia: I'm not entirely buying into the hype with the Dawgs, but they should be a very good team and win a lot of games. That said, I just do not see them beating Florida a second year in a row, and the rest of the schedule is just so difficult it's hard to see them not slipping up somewhere along the way. The good news for the Dawgs, though, is that in the day and age of the expanded BCS, a second SEC team is almost guaranteed to make a BCS game, so even if they cannot edge out Florida, I still expect to see them in a BCS game somewhere. I do not believe Georgia will beat Florida, but even so they are the second best team in the conference and they will be rewarded appropriately.

5. Ohio State: They are not this good, and I actually expect the Trojans to beat them with somewhat relative ease. Or at least we should all be hoping that, considering if they don't you can bet the farm that Ohio State will end up in Miami for yet another puke-tacular national championship game. With the Buckeyes, it's not that they are that good, but the Big Ten slate is just so weak that they are almost guaranteed to reel off 10 regular season wins, and probably 11. In head-to-head match-ups against the top seven or eight teams, I wouldn't pick them against any of them, but regardless of that the harsh reality is that any team that finishes up 11-1 and champions of their conference is going to be highly ranked. And again, if this team can somehow get by USC, I really do not see any way they don't end up playing for the national title for the third consecutive year.

6. Missouri: You can add me to the list that thinks Missouri isn't that good, but this is a pretty stout football team that should pile up a lot of wins given the schedule. Offensively they will remain productive as long as Chase Daniel stays healthy, and the defense looks to be surprisingly good. The biggest thing that the Tigers have going for them is a weak schedule that should allow them to have their way most of the season. The season opener against Illinois is tough, but the rest of the non-conference schedule is a breeze, and they fortunately avoid both Oklahoma and Texas Tech on the rotational schedule. There's really no reason why this team shouldn't reel off nine or ten wins and claim the Big XII North for the second year in a row. I expect them to face Oklahoma for the second year in a row to determine the conference title.

7. Clemson: Of all of the top ten teams, this is the one I could most easily see the bottom falling out. It's a good team, to be sure, but there are plenty of holes. The offensive skill position players are fine, but the offensive line looks to have a long year ahead. On the defensive side of the ball, it should be a pretty good unit, but graduation / suspension / injuries have combined to create plenty of concerns. The biggest thing that Clemson has going for themselves, I find, is that they are in the ACC and to be quite frank -- in a day and age where both Miami and Florida State are mediocre-at-best -- you really don't have to be very good to be the best team in that conference. Still, Clemson has never lived up to the hype under Bowden, and no one (including Clemson fans) should be surprised if that happens again in 2008.

8. Auburn: These Tigers were picked at SEC Media Days to win the SEC West, and with good reason. Tuberville will field yet another stout defense on the Plains, and offensively things will improve. The Spread Eagle won't be the unstoppable attack that many Aubies expect, mind you, but it won't be quagmire that many rivals think either. The truth of the matter is that offensive production had declined so signifcantly in the final two years under Al Borges that, much like when Alabama made the transition away from Mike Shula, a fair amount of improvement is almost guaranteed by default. And let's be frank, this team was pretty dang good a year ago, going 9-4, and they would have won the SEC West then had LSU not been able to convert a long, last-second touchdown pass. I expect they edge out LSU in Jordan-Hare this season, and that propels them to Atlanta with another 9-10 win season.

9. LSU: This team wasn't that good last year, and they do have plenty of key losses, but even so it's still a squad with a ton of quality depth and talent. Moreover, given the help of a very weak non-conference schedule, they are almost guaranteed eight wins with a legitimate chance for a couple of more. I figure LSU wins 9 or 10 games in 2008, but will finish second in the West to Auburn. I do look at this team and see a few legitimate concerns, largely the quarterback play and a defense that might not be as good as many expect (key losses in the secondary combine with a defensive line that struggled to rush the passer consistently last year, even with Glenn Dorsey), plus they have had a tendency the past few years to lose some games they should have won. Those concerns keep me from putting this team higher, but it's still a good squad that should win a lot of games. I figure anything below nine wins has to be a pretty big disappointment.

10. Texas: Sans Oklahoma, this team has more talent and depth than anyone in the Big XII, and Colt McCoy is one of the better quarterbacks in the country. Nevertheless, the program still seems to be in a bit of a hangover from 2005, and the schedule is very difficult. They draw road games against Colorado, Texas Tech, and Kansas, plus they also get Missouri and will have to exercise their recent demons against Texas A&M. And, to be quite frank, as usual, I figure they will lose yet again in the Red River Shootout. This is a good team, and they should probably do better than they ultimately will, but a few legitimate concerns and a tough schedule keep them from going any higher.

11. West Virginia: I really do expect WVU to decline a good bit without Rodriguez. While the quick hire after the Fiesta Bowl triump was a feel good story, in all honesty handing over the reins to a career assistant probably wasn't the smartest long-term decision for the program. And going into the 2008, they are probably going to have a bit of a long year defensively with struggles on the defensive line and the defensive backfield. As long as Pat White can stay healthy they should do well again on offense, but there is a legitimate concern as to whether or not he can make it through the year unscathed, and you really have to figure that the departure of Rodriguez -- the ultimate mastermind of the spread option -- will have a negative impact on the performance of the offense. The thing with WVU, though, is that the Big East is very weak and someone has to win it, and you have to figure they are the odds-on favorite. I don't think they are really all that good -- and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them have a pretty big decline -- but someone has to win the Big East and get the guaranteed BCS berth, and it's hard to pick anyone over the Mountaineers.

12. Texas Tech: You have to admire what Mike Leach has done in Lubbock, and this may very well be his best team to date. Still, they are behind on talent and depth to the rest of the top teams of the Big XII, and that will likely do them in yet again. This is a team that should rack up a lot of wins, but it's hard to see them edging out Oklahoma and Texas to get to the Big XII championship game.

13. Wisconsin: The Badgers have been consistently good the past several years, and that should continue in 2008. The running game is strong, and the defense should be better after an unusually tough stretch of injuries last season. All in all, though, the biggest thing Wisconsin has going for themselves is a weak schedule. Even if you assume they lose all three "tough" games against Ohio State, Penn State, and Illinois, this is a team that should still finish 9-3. I fully expect the Badgers to win nine or ten games and play in a New Year's Day bowl for the fifth consecutive year. It's such a shame that 99.9% of the media attention on the Big Ten goes to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, because consistently good teams like the Badgers get no attention.

14. Virginia Tech: I think you all know my rather low opinion of the [c]Hokies, but it's still going to be one of the better teams in the ACC. And when you look at the schedule, there are just entirely too many teams that range from bad to mediocre-at-best for them not to rack up a bunch of wins again. I figure they win 8-10 games this season, and honestly they have just as good of a shot at as anyone to win the ACC. Are they that good? No, but they don't have to be either.

15. Oregon: I'm a bit wary about this pick, and honestly I should probably have the Ducks a bit lower. The defense should be a good unit, and frankly it's going to have to be until the offense comes around. Justin Roper has many people going nuts over his performance against South Florida in the bowl game, but the odds are probably that he doesn't even start most of the year. Moreover, the schedule is a definite concern for these guys. The Pac 10 is a lot tougher than people give it credit for, and they also have two fairly tough OOC games against Purdue and Boise State. I'll leave the Ducks here for now, but I'm afraid this is one pick I'll regret in a few months.

16. Brigham Young: This should be the best non-BCS team in the country, and they are very much gunning for an undefeated season and a BCS berth. It's not just all talk either, this is one team you should keep your eye on. Early in the year they draw Washington and UCLA, and I honestly think they might win both. Washington is terrible, and UCLA will be fielding a third-string quarterback in the first year of a coaching change... they've got a good chance at both. I'm not quite sure this team is BCS bound, but I do think they are the best non-BCS team in the country.

17. Penn State: This was a good team a year ago and they return a lot of starters, and that combines to make them a safe pick. Struggles at the quarterback position makes me think this team is a bit limited on the top-end of performance, especially considering they are planning to throw the football a bit more this year, but this should be a solid team. The offensive line is stout, the skill position players are good, and the defense should again be pretty strong. The schedule, however, does hurt them a good bit with an OOC game against Oregon State, plus road games against Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Iowa. I do not think they will be able to recapture the magic from 2005, but this is a team that should rack up eight or nine wins and have a shot at another New Year's Day bowl game.

18. Illinois: It's really obvious that the Illini weren't that good a year ago, and the loss of Mendenhall is a huge concern. Still, this is a decent team that should do pretty well in a weak conference. Juice Williams and his mobility out of the spread will continue to give Big Ten teams trouble with the general lack of defensive speed that still permeates the conference. The schedule is honestly a relatively  tough one, but I still expect that the Zookers should be one of the better teams of the Big Ten, and that should keep them in the top 25.

19. Arizona State: If I did Pythagorean projections for the Pac 10, ASU would be a big overachiever, and I really do not think they are that good. Those three losses by 12+ points and those three wins by 4 points or fewer (combined record of those three teams was 16-20) should really make you think twice about this squad. Going forward, the defense probably isn't going to be all of that special, and the offense hinges on keeping Carpenter healthy, which is a major concern given their offensive line struggles. Honestly, I don't understand where people see this squad beating Georgia... on paper the Dawgs should have no problems with them. This is another one of those teams that I might regret a few weeks on down the road.

20. South Florida: I'm really not sold on the Bulls, but someone has to win the Big East, and I figure the worst-case scenario is that USF is the second best team in that conference. I don't think much of them, but again, who is going to beat them? Connecticut may very well be the third toughest team on the entire schedule, and that should tell you all you need to know. Even if they aren't particularly good, they should win nine or ten games.  And honestly, any truly good team would go 12-0 through this schedule without even breaking a sweat.

21. Utah: For all of the talk earlier about BYU, Utah is probably almost just as good, and they may end up the best non-BCS team in the country. The season finale against BYU on November 22nd should be a great game, and that game could very well be played with a BCS game on the line. And this team will very much be able to grab the national attention right from the get-go when they travel to Michigan in the season opener, and I actually somewhat expect hope that they'll pull off the victory. I think the schedule is a bit hard for them to actually run the table, but they should win 10 games and be ranked in the final poll.

22. Wake Forest: It's a solid team with a smart, tough quarterback and a strong defense. If they played in the SEC or the Big XII, I would not have them ranked so highly, but in the ACC anything can happen. I expect it to be another good, solid year for Grobe and his men.

23. Alabama: Progress didn't seem so evident last year when we ended up in Shreveport again, but it was there. We finished fifth in the conference in Pythagorean Wins -- up from tenth in 2006 -- and the improvement from the previous year in terms of Pythagorean Wins was the second most of any first-year coach in the SEC since 2000 (second only to Saban in 2000 at LSU). This team is short on seniors, but the Tide does have some solid players returning, some freshmen who should help out and provide some positive contributions, and an overall new attitude with players finally buying into what Saban is selling. The schedule is pretty tough, and that will limit progress, but this is still a team that should win eight or nine games and be in contention for the SEC West in the middle of November.

24. Kansas: I have the Jayhawks a good bit lower than just about anyone you will find, but I feel very confident about this pick. The truth of the matter is that KU wasn't anything overly special last year, and their success was the result of a very weak schedule. They have no such luxury in 2008. Not only do they have a tough OOC game at South Florida, they also pick up Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech, the three best teams from the Big XII South. And in the North, Missouri will be good again, and Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Nebraska should all improve. They suddenly go from having one of the easiest schedules in the country to one of the toughest, and it will quickly show on the field. I actually think I have the Jayhawks too high, and I'll be surprised if they can get north of 7-5.

25. South Carolina: Closing it out I'll give a nod to the Gamecocks. Injuries killed their season a year ago, but those guys return and the defense should be very good. The problem of course will likely be troubles on the offensive side of the ball, which for the umpteen millionth time I find a bit comical given Spurrier's continued unchallenged reputation as an offensive genius. Either way, this is a solid team that should win seven or eight games, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them hit nine wins. The schedule starts off easy enough, and even if they lose to Georgia they should be 6-1 with LSU coming to town. And for whatever reason, I feel really good about their chances of pulling off the upset against the Bayou Bengals. They will fade a bit down the stretch because the schedule gets much tougher late, but still, it should be a solid year for the Gamecocks and they will probably pull off an upset somewhere.