Bill James on the BCS

For many baseball fans, Bill James is the god of statistical analysis. This article argues that quantitative statistical analysts should boycott the BCS. The best reasoning is this:

2. There is no genuine interest here in using statistical analysis to figure out how the teams compare with one another. The real purpose is to create some gobbledygook math to endorse the coaches' and sportswriters' vote.

Throughout the 11 years of the BCS, whenever the "computer" rankings have diverged markedly from the polls, the consensus reaction has been, we have to do something about those computers.

Give it a read. Definitely worth the time.

10 months ago rugman11 2 comments 0 recs |

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Mr. James should know, then, that stat.an. in baseball is far, far easier than it is in football.

For starters, the sports are night-and-day different. Baseball players compete against situations that the other team has created. In football, the players are competing against one another. All 22 players on the field can impact every single snap. The vast majority of at bats involve a max of 4 players. These differences lead to statistics that correlate much more strongly to wins and losses.

Second, consider the sheer number of games played in a baseball season. This, alone, makes the analysis easier. If we played 100 games in college football it could basically be a national round-robin.

Finally, for all of the crowing about the computers, it’s typically not because it diverges from the polls, but because it diverges from reality. You end up with predictions that just don’t make a lot of sense.

Instead of boycotting the league, what Mr. James needs to do is himself come up with a wonderful, predictive analysis package. If he came up with a system that accurately predicted the outcome of even 75% of bowl games for a few years in a row, you can bet that system would get added to the BCS.

by PeteHoliday on Jan 7, 2009 10:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Football

is not, and will never be a statistical game. At least not like baseball. Just ask Al Capone. Baseball, a man goes to the plate, he bats alone.

In football only certain players can achieve certain stats and when they do, there are other factors that could disguise, downgrade, and/or exaggerate how relevant those particular stats are.

by Bamagrad on Jan 9, 2009 12:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs