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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

BlogPoll Calling: Week Six Ballot Submitted

Ok, moved Boise ahead of Cincinnatti, but otherwise everything remains the same.  UAB WHAT!

DRAFT SUBMITTED

RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama
2 Florida
3 Texas
4 Virginia Tech 3
5 Cincinnati 1
6 Boise State
7 Ohio State 1
8 Southern Cal 2
9 Iowa 3
10 TCU 1
11 Oregon
12 Miami (Florida) 1
13 Kansas 1
14 Penn State 1
15 South Carolina 2
16 LSU 11
17 Georgia Tech 2
18 South Florida 3
19 Nebraska
20 Oklahoma State 4
21 Central Michigan
22 Brigham Young
23 Oregon State
24 Pittsburgh
25 UAB

Dropped Out: Mississippi (#18), Missouri (#20), Auburn (#22), Stanford (#23), Wisconsin (#24).
RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama
2 Florida
3 Texas
4 Virginia Tech 3
5 Boise State 1
6 Cincinnati 2
7 Ohio State 1
8 Southern Cal 2
9 Iowa 3
10 TCU 1
11 Oregon
12 Miami (Florida) 1
13 Kansas 1
14 Penn State 1
15 South Carolina 2
16 LSU 11
17 Georgia Tech 2
18 South Florida 3
19 Nebraska
20 Oklahoma State 4
21 Central Michigan
22 Brigham Young
23 Oregon State
24 Pittsburgh
25 UAB

Dropped Out: Mississippi (#18), Missouri (#20), Auburn (#22), Stanford (#23), Wisconsin (#24).

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Yep

VT looks better and better. I think you’ve got LSU right where they should be, too.

Never quit. It is the easiest cop-out in the world.

by gorjus on Oct 11, 2009 12:53 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Ha...

…UAB is worse than each of the teams you dropped from your poll…but you know that already…

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 11, 2009 1:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Yes...

…but they got the Mr. Irrelevant vote for beating Southern Miss (suck it, Doc) last week and were off this week, so why not throw one to dear old UAB?

Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.

by Todd on Oct 11, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

but...

…he nailed it with “old”.

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 11, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

WIthout overanalyzing too much...

It looks good from here. I like the Oklahoma State tumble after their struggle with A&M.

by CrimsonWraith on Oct 11, 2009 2:11 PM CDT reply actions  

A few thoughts...
  • I might move LSU up a little, but not much. I know they lost to Florida, so the sole loss isn’t damning by any stretch, but by the same token they have zero quality wins, and they are lucky to not be 3-3 now. Until they lose some more they really don’t deserve to drop lower, but until they beat someone worth a shit don’t really deserve to move much higher.
  • Cincinnati at #5? Hell no. Undefeated or not, Boise has a more impressive slate than this bunch. I wouldn’t have them in the top ten.
  • Kansas is way too high… they have to play someone, and Iowa State doesn’t count.
  • UAB, seriously? Even if you are going to go the Mr. Irrelevant route, you can at least find someone better than that. How about Arkansas?

"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman

by outsidethesidelines on Oct 11, 2009 2:27 PM CDT reply actions  

or Troy

domination of mighty Mitzu

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 11, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't go...

…to Arkansas or Troy, though.

Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.

by Todd on Oct 11, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Might as well...

…vote for Homewood, too, then.

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 11, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would...

…if I could.

Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.

by Todd on Oct 11, 2009 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

usc should be above ohio state

I figure you put UAB at 25 just to see if people actually read this

by kevinMe on Oct 11, 2009 2:47 PM CDT reply actions  

What he said PLUS

it’s time to start rethinking the entrenchment of USC and OSU. Besides Va. Tech, is there a 1 loss team playing better right now? I don’t think so.

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 11, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

meant OREGON is playing better than either of those two.

It helps if I put the name of the team down

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 11, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm just curious, Todd ...

… can I hear your argument for Oregon St. (4-2, wins over Portland St., Stanford, UNLV, and Arizona St.) or Central Michigan (5-1, wins over Michigan St. and nothing) over Auburn, or is it just “I hate Auburn”?

Because I’m fine with you hating Auburn, and I’d be fine to hear that argument. But it seems like it would be a very interesting argument indeed.

by JCCW Jerry on Oct 11, 2009 11:21 PM CDT reply actions  

I think it's a simple argument...

Auburn has zero wins over ranked teams. Auburn has only one win over a team with a winning record. Auburn was absolutely smoked by a team that is 7-5 at best. Why should a team like that be ranked?

There is only so much mileage you can get out of a victory where a likely 8-4 Big East gift wraps a game for you at home. At some point, you have to beat more than just the Louisiana Tech’s, Ball State’s, and Mississippi State’s of the world (all of which the likes of North Texas, New Hampshire, Nevada, Navy, and Houston did).

If you guys can beat Kentucky and then beat LSU — or if Tennessee suddenly shows itself to be significantly better — I am sure you guys will be ranked, and rightly so. Until then, though, you have a weak argument. And I am not saying good arguments for Oregon State and Central Michigan can be made, I am just saying that you guys do not have a very good argument.

Furthermore, I see little reason to question Todd failing to rank Auburn after this weekend. Auburn is not ranked in the Coach’s Poll, nor are they ranked in the AP poll. They aren’t even ranked in the ESPNU Fan Poll. At some point, you rationally have to conclude that the people doing the poll are not the problem.

Besides, you guys are 26th and 27th in the two major polls, effectively meaning that if you can beat Kentucky, at home, you are once again ranked. Why complain? You guys came off a losing season, made what was perceived to be the worst SEC hire of the modern era, and now you get to be ranked just because you beat West Virginia and Kentucky at home? No Auburn fan could rationally complain about that.

"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman

by outsidethesidelines on Oct 12, 2009 12:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

What he said...

…but I’ll go a little further as well. Auburn fell out for the reasons OTS listed above, but also as punishment for losing in such spectacular fashion. The offense couldn’t find a rhythm against a defense that has been spotty at best, the defense finally had a game where it couldn’t force multiple turnovers (You can get away with giving up boatloads of yardage so long as you are getting take aways, but a team really can’t live on that for long), and Auburn just looked like a bad team. CMU snuck in because I like them and because they have a win over Michigan State, whom I am also high on (and disapointed in all at the same time, why do you hurt the ones that love you Sparty?), and Oregon State gets a sympathy vote for knocking off a pretty good Stanford team that was previously leading the Pac-10.

Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.

by Todd on Oct 12, 2009 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

And I'll also just say...

…Auburn got into the rankings last week because they were undefeated, plain and simple. The week before I argued that they hadn’t done anything to deserve ranking, and then last week I still didn’t think they had done anything but with other unbeatens falling out I figured I’d give them the nod.

Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.

by Todd on Oct 12, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

So there's no actual rationale here

It’s “sympathy votes” and “I like them.”

Fair enough.

by JCCW Jerry on Oct 12, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

I thought...

…you were the Auburn fan who could read.

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 13, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Tell me: who replaces them?

OTS, you’ve said a thousand times that Auburn doesn’t deserve to be ranked—OK, but who does? You agree that Central Michigan, Oregon St., and UAB don’t have a place—so you could find three other teams to replace them more deserving than Auburn? Let’s see it. Name ‘em. I’ll readily agree that beating West Virginia and Tennessee isn’t cause to throw a parade, but it’s better than what Auburn’s competition for the bottom rungs of the poll have done. Hell, it’s better than what South Carolina has done—toss out both teams’ cupcakes, and it’s 11-point win vs. WVU/ 4-point win @ Tennessee/loss @ Arkansas going against 6-point win vs Ole Miss / 4-point win @ N.C. State (who just got buried by Duke) / loss @ Georgia. Plus Auburn buried our SEC cupcake while SC beat UK by 2. Auburn’s wins are obviously better, the losses are just about equal, but Carolina’s 15 and Auburn’s unranked. OK.

And yes, the people doing the poll are the problem—you yourself have called them idiots plenty of times, everyone knows they’re idiots, but now because they’re leaving Auburn out of the poll they know what they’re doing? Puh-leeze. The AP went with Utah—4 wins to our five, over San Jose St., Utah St., Louisville, and Colorado St. The coaches went with Missouri, who’s beaten horrible Illinois, Furman, Bowling Green, and Nevada. West Virginia and Tennessee are both better than any win either one of those two teams have and 5-1 is better than 4-1 … but they’re the pollsters, so they’re the ones who are correct? Gimme a break.

Lastly, “if Tennessee suddenly shows itself to be significantly better” — they just beat the same team that beat Arkansas and Carolina by 31, and it wasn’t even that close. Everybody in the SEC except the Tide and Gators can’t suck.

by JCCW Jerry on Oct 12, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Who replaces them?

Hell, you can reel off 10 teams to replace them. Or more. Take your pick… Central Michigan, Arkansas, Pitt, Ole Miss, Auburn, Utah, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, West Virginia, whoever… it doesn’t matter.

You know as well as I do that the rankings at that low of a point are a complete and total crapshoot. Realistically, the gap between the 25th place team and the 40th place is basically zero, and that is being generous. And hell, honestly this year the rankings are a complete crapshoot once you get past #5, muchless #25.

So none of the teams that low really deserve to be ranked, per se. You basically just have a bunch of teams who are right there at the same level, and you rank a few and you leave a few out. Auburn got left out this time. Big whoop. Beat a Kentucky team, at home, with their back-up quarterback and you get back in.

At some point you guys actually have to beat some quality teams, period. And if the scheduling gods brought some patsies early, then you might just have to wait a couple of more weeks. Win, don’t cry and complain. And hell, you guys would be ranked in the top 15 (or higher) had you just been able to do that. If you’ll recall, I advocated ranking Auburn higher in this space last week, but when you go get your ass smoked by a 7-5 Arkansas team, what do you want me to say? Just win, don’t complain to other bloggers afterward when they choose not to rank your team. It’s pretty simple… just don’t get blown out by teams bound for the Liberty Bowl if you really want respect.

Besides, what are you really complaining about here, and what do you really want? How high do you think Auburn deserves to be based on what little they’ve done? Top ten, top fifteen? I mean if think they should be 22nd, and Todd has them maybe 25th or 26th here, what’s the difference? Who cares about that little of a distinction?

And a couple of more points to close:

  • Tennessee showing itself to be significantly better has to take more than one blowout win over a Georgia team that looks to be on the brink of implosion. Let them rally, give ‘Bama a hell of a game (or win it), beat Ole Miss & South Carolina, and finish up 8-4 and then we’ll talk. Until they can do that, all they did was move from 5-7 to 6-6.
  • Everyone outside of Alabama and Florida does not have to suck, but there was a huge gap between those two teams and the rest of the league last year, and it looks like that is the case again this year. Both ’Bama and Florida can be elite teams, and the #3 team in the SEC can be only pretty good.

"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman

by outsidethesidelines on Oct 12, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

No

They are not a “complete and total crapshoot.” Auburn is more deserving than a Pitt team that’s lost to NC State and only beaten UConn. Period. They are more deserving than an Ole Miss team whose best win is Vandy. They are more deserving than Utah and Central Michigan and Wisconsin. Obviously Todd and you and I feel very differently about this, and because of that I promise this is the last week I bitch about this, but for me the point of ranking 25 teams as opposed to 10 or 15 means that you pick 25 teams, rather than getting to 15 and drawing names out of a hat.

As for what I want, I want this: I want two of the Alabama bloggers who I respect the most to either take a rational look at what Auburn’s accomplished—“one bowl team at absolute most” is garbage when Tennessee’s got 3-4 wins left on the schedule, and the idea that WVU couldn’t qualify for a bowl out of a conference they’ve totally owned the last few years is laughable—or acknowledge that they can’t be rational when it comes to Auburn. I’m fine either way, but pretending that Auburn hasn’t done anything (or, to be specific, hasn’t done anything that would place them amongst the top 25 teams in the country) by beating West Virginia and winning in Knoxville is silly.

(And a p.s.: if Arkansas winds up 7-5 and in the Liberty Bowl, I’ll buy you a beer next time I’m in Alabama. They’ve got three easy wins left and they’ll take 2-of-3 at least from Carolina, LSU, and Ole Miss.)

by JCCW Jerry on Oct 12, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hey...

…I’ve always been very honest about the fact that personal bias plays a big part in who I throw in at the bottom, just like two weeks ago I had TAMU in instead of Auburn (or any of the other unbeatens that were left out) because, given a choice between undefeated teams that I didn’t really think had done anything so far, I go with the one that employs Joe Kines.

I put in Auburn last week for the same reason I put in Mizzou and Wisconsin; they hadn’t done anything overly impressive yet, but they were undefeated. Maybe having the Beavers in my ballot is a bad decision (it was based purely on beating a Stanford team that I was impressed with), but I’d more likely have left Mizzou in (only loss to a very good Nebraska team) than Auburn. I’d rather give them a vote than give an Auburn team one that a) had one of the least impressive 5-0 runs to start the season and b) performed exactly like everyone expected them to once they hit a team with a competent QB/offense and a defense with a little bit of a pulse (and yes, Tennessee’s D has a pulse, but Crompton was exceedingly Crompton-esque in that game and had he performed like he did against UGA, that would have been Auburn’s first loss).

As for UAB and CMU, yeah, personal bias sympathy votes (though I’ll put CMU’s win over Michigan State against Auburn’s win over UT any day), but even if you take those two out, you can still make a solid argument for ranking Wisconsin (only loss to Ohio State), and Notre Dame (only loss to a decent Michigan team) in their places ahead of Auburn. Or if you want to stick with the Mid-Majors, Tulsa, Utah, BYU, Houston (who definitely wet themselves at UTEP but still have TWO quality wins over Big 12 opponents), and Idaho are all one loss teams as well.

If you want me to admit that personal bias plays too big of a role in some of my selections, then no problem. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, and every week from here to the end of the season because it does. But you can’t say I’m not being rational about Auburn unless you mean “you’re rationale doesn’t jibe with mine.”

Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.

by Todd on Oct 12, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry...

There are teams who have resumes that definitively command a top-25 ranking, no excuses. However, there are many other teams out there whose case is much more shaky, and they can legitimately be left out. It’s clear to me that Auburn does not have a resume currently indicative of a team that definitively commands a top-25 ranking, period.

Now, I am not saying — nor have I ever said — that Auburn should not be ranked, nor have I ever said that I personally would not rank them. Keep in mind I do not have a Blogpoll vote, so I’m not on the record one way or the other. However, what I am saying is that Auburn has not done enough to date to where an Auburn fan could have a legitimate complaint if someone does not have them in their top 25. Auburn is a bubble team that could legitimately go one way or the other, end of story.

And you can cry crimson homerism all you want, but it’s not going to fly. If it were just crimson homerism then you guys would be ranked everywhere else, which you are not. Then how do you explain everyone else leaving you out, considering that 98% of voters couldn’t give two shits about Auburn one way or the other. Pretty much the only way you can do it is if you say that the 98% of the voters are stupid and incompetent, and that the few ’Bama voters are just biased homers incapable of correctly evaluating Auburn.

It’s a weak argument either way you go about it. Again, Auburn is a bubble team that could go either way, and a “fair” ranking probably has them somewhere around 22nd to 27th.

And I’ll also add as a final point that if you think you can definitely make such sound, concrete judgments about the differences between teams that closely grouped, then frankly you need to stop shooting the shit with me and Todd and head off for Vegas. If you can do that, I can guarantee you that you will be retired and on a beach in Tahiti by Christmas.

"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman

by outsidethesidelines on Oct 13, 2009 2:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

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