With Ole Miss Victory, 'Bama Stakes Claim Atop SEC West
As the Good Doctor correctly pointed out in the Radio Hour last Wednesday, before this past weekend no one really knew how the SEC West stacked up. We knew that it was going to be a four-team race between Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Ole Miss, but ultimately things were going to be decided based on how those four teams matched up in head-to-head competition, and none of those four teams had played each other to date. As satisfying as our undefeated season had been, not to mention our top three ranking, both LSU and Auburn were undefeated too, and Ole Miss still controlled their destiny. For all intents and purposes, the West was wide open.
After this weekend, however, there can be no doubt. With its 22-3 thrashing of Ole Miss in Oxford, Alabama definitively staked its claim atop the SEC West.
Now, to be sure, the SEC West race is far from over, and nothing written here should be interpreted as saying that the Tide has wrapped things up. Far from it, in fact. Several tough games remain, and the rest of SEC West will not go silently into that good night. They will put up a fight, 'Bama will have to continue to play well, and we'll have to answer the bell in the face of adversity. If nothing else, getting to Atlanta will still require far more than a three hour drive from Tuscaloosa
However, what we can say is that Alabama has staked its claim atop the SEC West, and that the West now goes directly through Tuscaloosa, not Oxford. And while things aren't over yet, 'Bama is clearly the favorite moving forward, and almost every penny of the smart money is on the Tide.
Ole Miss is done, period. I don't care how much hype they received in the preseason, and I don't care if their fans imbibed enough Kool-Aid to convince themselves that they were actually going to make it to Atlanta for the first time ever, they are done. Even if they catch fire after the 'Bama game like they did last year -- which is highly unlikely -- they are effectively eliminated from the West right now. By already having two conference losses, plus Alabama holding the tiebreaker over them, even if Colonel Reb wins out they will need the Tide to lose three times in its remaining five conference games, and that is simply not happening. The only way they get to Atlanta now is if they earn a berth in the Peach Bowl. As for making Atlanta in the first week of December, well, better luck next decade.
Auburn, too, was effectively exposed by the Hogs. They jumped out to a 5-0 start against a laughable slate that included, at absolute most, one bowl team --and let's be clear, if that West Virginia team were in the SEC, they couldn't get the six wins required for bowl eligibility -- but the Hogs blew them out of the water in Fayetteville. What we see from Auburn is that, even if injuries don't expose their paper thin depth chart, the defense is so porous that the offense will have to be an almost unstoppable juggernaut in order to get victory against any quality opponent. If the offense slips up any, like it did against the Hogs, defeat is all but a certain. Auburn will still win quite a few more games simply because so many of the remaining teams on the schedule have disappointed, but at least another loss or two is guaranteed, and that will eliminate them from the SEC West competition. Much like Ole Miss, they are clearly bowl bound, but the only way they are getting to Atlanta is with a berth in the Peach Bowl.
LSU remains the Tide's biggest competition simply because of the raw talent they have on the roster, but even the Bayou Bengals face an uphill battle right now. The 5-1 record and the top ten ranking look nice on paper, but frankly they have zero quality wins, and for now they probably just have to be happy that they diverted complete and total disaster by finding a way to squeak by lowly Mississippi State and Georgia -- two games they could, and perhaps should have lost. Either way, this much is clear, unless this team suddenly regains its 2006 form -- and notice I said 2006 form, not 2007 form -- they aren't going to be able to legitimately challenge 'Bama in the West. If they continue to play over the course of the second half of the season like they did in the first half, they've got a much better chance of losing to the likes of Auburn, Ole Miss, and Arkansas than they do of going to Tuscaloosa and beating Alabama. They are clearly our biggest threat at this point, but realistically they will probably need to run the table from here in order to get to Atlanta, and that's a highly unlikely proposition right now unless they can really improve over the course of the next few weeks.
And that is how the West shakes out in the aftermath of this Saturday's games. It's far from over, but the Tide has staked its claim atop the division and may perhaps even be in a position where they can lose a game and still move on to face the Gators. If nothing else, the West is now ours to lose, and if we end up missing out on Atlanta, we will have no one but ourselves to blame.
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Let's be fair
Tennessee’s easy second half of a schedule (Vandy, Kentucky, and Memphis) may make them a 6-6 bowl team too…
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 12, 2009 12:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
Their win over Georgia moved them from 5-7 to 6-6. They will lose to ’Bama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss, but beat Memphis, Vandy, and Kentucky.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Oct 12, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can see Kentucky beating Tennessee.
It’ll depend on the competency of Hartline’s replacement and UT’s offensive execution.
I’d imagine that the defenses will be pretty consistent from both teams.
by crimson37 on Oct 12, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
… but it hasn’t happened since like 1982, and it probably won’t happen this year either.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Oct 12, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post
I went heavy on Alabama over 9.5 @ +145, and covered myself with Ole Miss to win the West: +350
by Bud Elliott on Oct 12, 2009 1:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This is no surprise to me
I honestly couldn’t see why Alabama wasn’t a heavy favorite in the preseason, and this just proves why I felt that way. Even if LSU beats us, they aren’t playing well enough to avoid another loss. I honestly cant see us not being in the SEC Championship. And Florida pretty much has already clinched a spot. I can’t wait.
36-0
by Bamabrave4 on Oct 12, 2009 1:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I
think we garnered the appropriate amount of preseason hype given our unproven QB, rebuilt O-line and departing key players such as Rashaad Johson and Glen Coffee. Ole Miss got the hype they did because they had fewer unknowns. Even LSU technically had a more experienced QB in terms of meaningful game experience and they had their leading rusher coming back along with a defense that had no other option but to get better.
"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken
by Bens4vcobra on Oct 12, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Number 5
Yeah, weren’t we number 5 in the preseason? You had three teams returning elite quarterbacks (Oklahoma, Texas, Florida), and another who almost always ends up as a top 5 team (USC). I think by no objective statement could you say Alabama was not given enough hype.
by Kenny483 on Oct 12, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we were evaluated properly...
… there was no real reason to have us over Florida, USC, Oklahoma, or Texas. But we were immediately behind those four, and picked to win the West.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Oct 12, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
quite a few of the "experts" picked ole miss to win the west.
dropping us below them in their rankings.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
by kleph on Oct 12, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats what I was referring to
All of the preseason “experts” were picking Ole Miss and LSU. Very few picked Bama.
36-0
by Bamabrave4 on Oct 13, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SEC Media
days picked Bama to win the west. I don’t think SI counts for anything.
"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken
by Bens4vcobra on Oct 15, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No dont let me stop you
Just keep cutting my post down, that’s cool. I think you know exactly what I’m talking about. We all know that Alabama wasn’t the consensus pick to win the West this year, there was plenty of debate across the country.
36-0
by Bamabrave4 on Oct 15, 2009 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I
remember last year when Saban started preparing for Florida before the Iron Bowl and the barners were saying “OMG SABAN OVERLOOKING US!!!!11 WE’RE GONNA BEAT BAMMER!!1” So I’m thinking our coaching staff starts gameplanning the SEC CG asap.
"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken
by Bens4vcobra on Oct 12, 2009 2:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
More concerned with..
I am more concerned with the barn than with LSU right now. Unless LSU’s offense gets going they may lose 2 or 3 more times. Auburn, if they keep moving the ball, at least has a chance to beat teams because they can score. I agree we have the inside track and could possibly afford one loss, but that might knock us out of the NC because of the teams we have yet to play. Best not overlook S.Carolina, McElroy must perform better. ROLL TIDE!!!
Baptman
by baptman on Oct 12, 2009 3:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Would agree.
Especially since we play them in Auburn. We have seen that our two road wins were at times not pretty. I mean getting 1st and goal 4 or 5 times and not scoring a TD and being about 6 inches from a safety and being behind at UK at half. We have played good but not great.
It is not surprising that going on the road in the SEC is hard. Look at UF at LSU. We really may have prepared for UF while we were preparing for Auburn last year, I don’t know. But we won’t be able to do that this year even if we want to. (We may however prepare for AU before UT Chatt. game)
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
by 5026 on Oct 12, 2009 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am more concerned with SC than Auburn or LSU
And not simply because they are the next opponent. SC’s defense may not be quite as good as Ole Mss’s or LSU’s defense but SC is a better team overall. Likewise, SC’s offense may not be quite as good as Auburn’s offense, but SC is a better team overall.
The SC game is not quite the trap game that it was, primarily because Bama’s offense will have something to prove. Nonetheless, SC is a more balanced team than LSU or Auburn, and this makes them more dangerous, I think, for the Tide. If we remain focused and continue to limit our turnovers, we clearly should beat them. But they pose more problems on both sides of the ball than do Auburn or LSU. SC may end up being the best SEC team that we play in the regular season.
by M. Johnson Defender on Oct 12, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll agree here too.
SC’s QB is a leader and very tough and their D is good.
They may not be able to run the ball on us which could give us the chance to tee off on the QB.
Still you can’t take it this team for granted. We’ve got some pay back from the last time they came to T-town as well.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
by 5026 on Oct 12, 2009 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm definitely drunk off of the Crimson Kool-Aid...
But after South Carolina, I don’t see a better team we’ll face until Florida.
I think South Carolina’s D-line has the potential to be as good as Ole Miss’ – you also can never count out Norwood on any play. We gotta make sure we have him blocked.
LSU showed that they have the defense, but you can still move the ball on LSU. Florida kept running the inside trout and were having success with it. When they did throw it, it was a successful throw (for the most part).
Auburn – I think their lack of depth is going to hit them hard. Also, if Arkansas could figure out how to stop their offense (even temporarily), I’m pretty sure that LSU and Alabama can figure it out too. The Iron Bowl could be a fairly close game early on only because it’s in Auburn. I can see another slow, painful death game for the Tigers, however.
Florida – Their Savior came back and played well enough that everyone stepped up and he didn’t have to do much. But I do wonder: with all of the yards Florida got on LSU, is that a reflection of LSU’s true D, or Florida wanting it more or playing better simply because Tebow is back? Furthermore, LSU did not seem to go after Tebow at all, they did not seem to play with any energy/motivation/whatever – they didn’t have it on Saturday night.
I think we beat Florida in the SECCG. Nowadays, you don’t have these 30-game winning streaks in college football very often (USC lost theirs in the NC game against Texas; Miami lost theirs in the NC game against tOSU – both of those teams didn’t have to play for a conference championship either). I seriously think that in addition to week-by-week game planning/preparation, the coaching staff has been coaching them on Florida’s spread, and getting that offense to execute better and be ready for the Gator defense. It will either be a close Alabama win, or a Alabama blowout win.
by CaliforniaTide on Oct 12, 2009 4:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We have a ways to go
before ATL.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
by 5026 on Oct 12, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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