Week Five Preview: #3 Alabama at Kentucky
Almost a year to the day after earning an ugly, 17-14 win over Kentucky in Tuscaloosa, the Tide now takes the return trip to Lexington for the re-match. Historically Alabama has dominated this series, putting it mildly, and the Tide is once again a heavy favorite as we go into Lexington. Of course, though, the Kentucky program under Rich Brooks is a far better one than the Tide has historically faced when going up against the Wildcats, and conference wins rarely come easy. Kentucky is a formidable foe in their own right, and they present the Alabama coaching staff plenty of challenges. Let's take a closer look at the match-ups.
Alabama Offense v. Kentucky Defense
Despite being a general juggernaut throughout the first four games of the season -- averaging over 35 points and about 500 yards of total offense per game -- the Alabama offense did encounter its first real problems of the season last week against Arkansas, as the Hogs were able to shut down the Tide's running game. Thankfully we still scored a lot of points because we had three long touchdowns, plus one short drive created by Lorenzo Washington's blocked punt, but the chink in the armor was nevertheless somewhat revealed. Simply put, the Hogs had a big, physical defensive front seven, they committed the resources necessary to stop the run, and we simply could not do much with it.
And in all fairness to Kentucky, the Wildcats do have a fine defense. Oddly enough, after spending years of having a prolific offense mixed with a defense that couldn't stop anyone, Kentucky now sports a fine defense, and it will easily be one of the best defenses we face all season. It's just a good group, top-to-bottom, with good coaching and a couple of legitimate star players to boot.
The defensive front seven, much like last week against Arkansas, does present some major issues simply because they are big and physical. The front four averages around 270 pounds, with a couple of 300 pound players in Corey Peters and Ricky Lumpkin anchoring the interior defensive line. The defensive ends are about as big as you will find for legitimate 4-3 teams, and the linebacker corps is big even by 3-4 standards. As a whole the corps averages around 240 pounds, while standout Micah Johnson comes in at around 260 pounds and Sam Maxwell is nearly as big. Bottom line, just like Arkansas a week ago, this is a very big, physical defensive front seven, and that will probably give us a lot of issues up front.
In particular, don't sleep on Micah Johnson. He is probably the best defensive player in the SEC you've never heard of, and it's only because he isn't playing for a high-profile program. He was a five-star recruit out of high school that could have legitimately gone to any school in the country, and he's practically been a standout player since first setting foot on campus. Truth be told, he's every bit as good as Rolando McClain or Brandon Spikes, and he will play on Sunday one day very soon. He can make a very big impact on a game, and we'll have to do all we can to limit his effectiveness. If he played for a high-profile program like Alabama or Florida, everyone in the country would know his name.
The biggest concern, though, that this defense poses as a whole is their ability to play the pass. Arkansas was big and physical in the front seven, but they couldn't rush the passer effectively, nor did their defensive backs cover well in space. Perhaps not too surprisingly, then, the Hogs shut down the running game with ease, but were torched in the passing game by Greg McElroy and company. Kentucky, on the other hand, faces no such limitation. Kentucky is big and physical in the front seven, but they can also effectively rush the passer, and they also have a fine defensive backfield to boot. Simply put, that's a big problem for 'Bama.
The pass rush itself is probably one of the best in the conference. The off-season loss of Jeremy Jarmon -- Jarmon tested positive for a banned supplement, lost a year of eligibility, and entered the NFL Supplemental Draft -- was a big one for the 'Cats, but the pass rush hasn't exactly struggled in his absence. Junior college transfer DeQuin Evans has played well in his place, and Collins Ukwu has been a force at times as well. Moreover, freshman Taylor Windham brings a lot of speed off the edge and he has already proven that he can rush the passer well (see the knockout blow on Tim Tebow last weekend). The Kentucky defense has racked up seven sacks this year on 79 passing attempts, so they have already showcased an ability to get after the quarterback.
That's bad enough for the Alabama offense, but making matters worse is the strength of the Kentucky defensive backfield. Cornerback Trevard Lindley is easily the cornerback in the SEC, and he will be a first round draft pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. He's an impact player who opposing teams generally loathe throwing against, but unfortunately the rest of the Kentucky defensive backfield is a solid group as well. Paul Warford normally starts opposite Lindley at cornerback, but he is missing the Alabama game with an injury, and Randall Burden will play in his place. The good news for Kentucky is that Burden seems like a solid option, and if nothing else he can really dance. Likewise, Winston Guy and Calvin Harrison really aren't game-changers at safety, but both are decent players at this stage who can get the job done.
All in all, the Kentucky defense is a fine one, and they present a lot of problems for the Alabama offense. They are big and physical enough to stop the run, and once they stop the run, you have to throw the football successfully, and to that end they can rush the passer and cover in the defensive backfield. Again, it's a fine unit, and if they can stay healthy it's perhaps the best defense the Tide will face all year. Objectively speaking, points ought to be hard to come by.
Alabama Defense v. Kentucky Offense
Remember earlier when I talked about how Kentucky used to be a team with a prolific offense and a laughable defense? Well, now the roles have entirely reversed, and its the offense that suddenly cannot get out of its own way. The Wildcats finished 87th in the country last year in scoring offense, and if the early returns are any indicator this offense is likely to much more closely resemble the 2008 offense than it does either the 2006 or 2007 units.
The biggest problem that this offense faces is simply that they don't have a lot of high-end players, particularly at the skill positions. At quarterback, Mike Hartline is a big, tall quarterback with decent mobility, but that is generally where his positive attributes end. He can put up a good completion percentage when throwing a lot of dink and dunk routes, but he doesn't have the arm you would probably imagine given his frame, nor is he overly accurate. On the whole, most of the time he's just an average-at-best passer.
Likewise, there are really no true game-changers at the skill positions. Randall Cobb, the former quarterback, is really the only true playmaker on the outside, and in general Kentucky does absolutely everything in their power to get the ball in his hands (including putting Cobb in the Wildcat). Aside from Cobb, though, there is just really nothing of note on the outside. Chris Matthews and Matt Roark are both very big targets (at around 6'5), but neither are particularly athletic and they have struggled to get separation. Kyrus Lanxter has been slowed by injuries, and while T.C. Drake is a decent tight end, he's probably not as good as Jacob Tamme was back when the Wildcats could really light up the scoreboard. Truth be told, outside of Cobb, their best receiver is likely the speedy Derrick Locke, a tailback, coming out of the backfield.
And speaking of tailbacks, Kentucky has a decent group there that generally features a mix of size and speed. Derrick Locke is the speedster of the group, and he is one of the quickest backs in the SEC. Physically he is almost a clone of Arkansas' Michael Smith, and he brings to the table the same strengths and weaknesses. The Wildcats, however, do have some physical backs that they use to run inside, so they can attack you in more ways than one. Both Alfonso Smith and Moncell Allen are physical tailbacks well over 200 pounds that can pound the interior running game. Likewise, fullback John Conner -- not related to this guy -- is a legitimate threat at fullback as a runner, receiver, and blocker.
The biggest strength of this offense is clearly at the point of attack with the offensive line. This is the most experienced offensive line in the SEC, and they start four seniors. Left tackle Zipp Duncan and right tackle Justin Jeffries are probably the best two players of the group, but the interior linemen aren't exactly shabby in their own right. It's not a unit featuring any true standout players, per se, but it's a capable group. They aren't mashers in the running game, mind you, but they do generally do a good job of protecting the quarterback. Kentucky quarterbacks have only been sacked three times this year on roughly 90 passing attempts, so these guys can clearly get the job done in pass protection.
All in all, though, again, this Kentucky offense just isn't very good. There simply aren't enough playmakers at the skill positions, and the quarterback isn't a standout player either. The offensive line is a solid group, as are the tailbacks, but they don't do enough in their own right to be able to overcome all of the shortcomings everywhere else that would allow Kentucky to truly light up the scoreboard.
As a whole, you really have to feel confident about how the Alabama defense looks to match up here. Kentucky is a physical team that likes to run the football, but even with the absence of Dont'a Hightower, it's hard to see this team having very much success against the Alabama defense on the ground. Likewise, while the Tide may struggle a bit to get to the passer, it's hard to see Kentucky having a lot of success in the passing game considering they lack quality depth at wide receiver or a consistently effective passing quarterback.
Putting It All Together
In the grand scheme of things, you really have to like the Tide's chances of winning this game. I think it's clear that we are the better team here, and there is a legitimate reason that we are favored going into this game.
On the other hand, though, Kentucky is no pushover. They may struggle offensively, but this is a good football team, and I personally think that Rich Brooks is easily one of the most underrated coaches of his generation. These guys have made three straight bowl games, and they will likely make a fourth straight in 2009. Likewise, after getting embarrassed by Florida, expect this Kentucky team to show up Saturday morning in Lexington like they just ate nails for breakfast. They'll be ready to play a long, physical contest, rest assured of that.
The good news is that the Kentucky offense ought to have very little success in terms of point production, unless we really give them some cheap points via turnovers and special teams breakdowns (speaking of which, Locke had a 100-yard kick return for a touchdown against Louisville). That said, unless we can really improve in terms of run blocking, the Kentucky defense may very well shut our offense down as well, and we could be in for another long, ugly, low-scoring game much like we had a year ago. Those who think that the Tide is simply going to walk into Lexington and come away with an easy win are probably in for a rude awakening come Saturday. Unless we suddenly play a lot better up front, or Kentucky decides to beat itself for the second week in a row, this is a game that is likely to be close going into the latter stages of the contest.
Hope for the best.
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24 comments
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Comments
You really make it sound like this could be an upset for Bama.
No one has spoken of them in the pre-season as upset contenders (to my recollection).
It was always Arkansas, LSU and Ole Miss.
Have they really demonstrated the proficiency that you allude to in their current season of play?
by crimson37 on Oct 2, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The defensive notes are particular true
While it was exciting watching Kentucky wing its way to 41-38 wins, the fact remained that those were still 6-6 and 7-6 teams. A commitment to playing defense positions them for better long-term health, I think; particularly with some young talent on hand. Also, in a few years, the recruiting should get better with the implosion of Louisville, and a young coach-in-waiting (and the fact that Brian Kelley isn’t going to be at UC past this year, I’d wager). Rich Brooks has been great for this team…reminds me of a crustier version of Dan McCarney.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 2, 2009 10:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not sure how objective this is
OTS, you seem to be channeling the Bear with this poor mouth report. While your assessment of their first string talent and coaching staff is probably right on, I think you understate three things: 1) UK’s performance to date, including very poor showings in several areas of both offense and defense 2) UK’s current physical condition after being pummeled by the Gators, and 3) UK’s lack of depth.
The Cats would have to engineer a turnaround of significant proportions just to get to the moderately good level that we expected from them this year. It’s possible; but not as likely as you seem to think.
by M. Johnson Defender on Oct 2, 2009 10:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+
I agree. It doesn’t seem taht they shuld be so much of a threat with how they’ve played recently and with the injuries that they’ve sustained.
I understand their second half play against Florida was a demonstration of their ability to play a whole game on defense, but they still allowed a touchdown in the 4th quarter. And they couldn’t score in the second half. So their adjustments only kinda worked on one side of the ball.
They are an away conference game, but I don’t see the justification for this “poor mouth report”.
by crimson37 on Oct 2, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we've all learned
that losing hold of our expectations only leads to disappointment and heartache. I echo OTS sentiments this season and for this reason, I have bet against Bama each game of this season.
With this approach I have yet to be disappointed, so I will continue to bet against the Tide and expect much more out of each opponent.
We will be very fortunate to win. Kentucky can shut down our run and force us to win the game in the fourth quarter.
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
by Bamagrad on Oct 2, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's fine . . .
as long as we are clear that the analysis is based on superstition rather than objectivity.
Facts are stubborn things. If we are fortunate to win this game, it won’t be because UK has a superior defense. It would be a major surprise if UK forces us to win in the 4th quarter.
by M. Johnson Defender on Oct 2, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there's
a lot of valid evaluation in the preview. Lindley and Micah Johnson are top-notch defenders and the KY front is big. I think they’ll probably play a little bit more balanced than Arkansas did against the run, which doesn’t mean we’ll need to have some creative playcalling and good blocking to open up holes for our running backs.
We should win, but I have a hard time assuming we will.
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
by Bamagrad on Oct 2, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The analysis from OTS is excellent, as usual
And I don’t think he’s being superstitious. I just think that he overstated the strength of the UK defense, especially the run defense. They haven’t performed to expectations, and it is difficult to see how they will be any better against an Alabama offense that has already proven its ability to use a wide variety of weapons.
I certainly don’t assume that we will win, and UK could play better than they have to date, but I think, objectively speaking, Bama should be up at least 20 to 6 at the start of the 4th quarter, with little hope of UK scoring any more points. I will be disappointed if we are still struggling with this team in the 4th quarter.
by M. Johnson Defender on Oct 2, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, and LSU
will present the same challenge to our offense. Tennessee is probably the best defense of that group, so that game could be very tough.
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
by Bamagrad on Oct 2, 2009 11:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Of this group . . .
I am most concerned about SC. If Coach Saban allowed such things as “trap games” to exist, this would be one.
by M. Johnson Defender on Oct 2, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
South Carolina...
…is the quintessential trap game…a home game against an under-appreciated opponent, who we don’t face annually, after a two-game road test, and sandwiched between Ole Miss and the Viles.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 2, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with OTS analysis.
UK has good front 7 people and if we run it the way we did last week it could be tough. Our O-line has some good players but to be honest they are small by today’s standards. Last week our O-line was about 30 pounds per man smaller than the Arky O-line.
Let’s face it. At the beginning of the season we were worried about the O-line. Although they have been ok in the pass blocking, in run blocking against Arky, and also in the 1st half against VT, we have shown that we can not push people around with this O-line.
I think this game calls for more screens, draw plays, and miss directions. We have to play smart and even be a bit conservative when on offense on our side of the field. We need to force turnovers and get a lot of 3 and outs from our D to wear down their D.
The way UK played the last 3 qts. against UF, who was trying to score, shows they can stop you.
It is important to get off to a good start like Florida. We don’t need to score 31, but it is important to be ahead after the 1st. We need to come out fired up not sleep walking like Utah.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
by 5026 on Oct 2, 2009 12:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
They do have the worst rushing D in the league
I like our chances of being able to power the ball at them, something UF is not noted for.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 2, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
CNS probably challenged......
the offensive line this week after the poor performance last week, so I expect that Bama will come out and run hard to set up the pass, (wow that sounds familiar).
I do see a few more screens to Julio and Maze, because though their LB’s are big, they are not as nimble footed across the middle. I think it will be a lower scoring ball game than most think.
There are 3 kinds of men. The ones who learn by reading. The few who learn by observation. And the rest have to pee on the electric fence to find out for themselves. Will Rogers
by jtCRIMSON on Oct 2, 2009 1:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The way our defense is capable of playing
our opponents will need their defense to be this guy:

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
by Bamagrad on Oct 2, 2009 1:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What about favorable matchups?
Can’t we set up Julio and Maze to challenge the non-Trevard Lindley CBs [like we did when we setup against Tramain Thomas when we played Arky]?
Don’t you think that with as versatile as Coach McElwain has been thus far that we are in good shape to take UK?
I’m not saying that it will be easy or that we are the pre-ordained national champions, but come on…
You always have to execute on the field. And I think that everyone understands that you have to protect the ball. But if both teams play to their potential, don’t you think that this is Alabama’s game?
This report and some of these comments, truly sound more like a denial of our recent success rather than a humble preview of a quality conference opponent.
by crimson37 on Oct 2, 2009 1:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
A few thoughts...
First and foremost, I’ll admit that I may be coming off as giving Kentucky a bit too much credit. Perhaps so, and hopefully we win with ease. Nevertheless, I do think there are objective reasons supporting this analysis.
To begin with, what evidence do we really have that Kentucky struggles to stop the run? Ohio averaged about 2.8 yards per carry against the ‘Cats, and Louisville averaged only about 3.2 yards per carry, both very good efforts for the Kentucky run defense. Now, Florida did light up the Kentucky defense on the ground, admittedly, but with that said I do think you have to keep in mind that Florida is a very different type of rushing attack that what we have. They get at you by spreading the field with speed and athleticism, and then confusing the hell out of you with counters and misdirection. It ultimately ends up getting you out of position against physically superior athletes, and they just torch you that way. Alabama, on the other hand, is nothing like that. We’re a lot more conventional, and there really just isn’t much confusion created. Even now, we still basically just line up and run it at you, so the fact that Florida had a lot of success running the football against Kentucky doesn’t necessarily portend good things for us.
Furthermore, if you want to use previous teams’ examples for the quality of run defense, we should have ran it right down Arkansas’ throat. They combined to run for almost 170 yards on 31 carries against Arkansas, so we should have went nuts in the running game then too, right? Obviously that’s not how it worked out, though.
Moreover, the biggest concern about Arkansas shutting down our running game is that their run defense isn’t thought to be anything overly special. They’ve got a decent front seven — though Kentucky, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and perhaps LSU are better — and they committed some resources to stopping the run, and it went away. Again, Kentucky is probably better in the front seven, so I’m afraid the assumption has to be that if they choose to shut down the running game, they can do so.
If they can do that, my concern is that they can shut down our passing game to a large degree. Remember the game last year… Wilson only completed 7 passes, threw 1 interception, and was sacked three times. We’re a better passing team this year, obviously, but if you cannot run the ball this year — and keep in mind we ran it for almost 300 yards against UK last year — Kentucky should be able to limit the passing game well enough to give our offense lots of troubles. Trevard Lindley probably shut down Julio Jones more last year than any other cornerback on the schedule, and McElroy will probably get some serious pressure in this game (something he hasn’t seen since the first half against Virginia Tech).
As a whole, this probably means that the offense will struggle to score a lot of points against Kentucky. Now, hopefully we can score some points some other ways like we did last year defensively, but it’s hard to bank on that simply because our defense — as dominant as it has been this year — has really struggled to force turnovers through the first four games. Likewise, even with Arenas’ incredible return ability, we have struggled in the kick return game, and while we’ve had some good punt returns by Arenas, we have had problems with with penalties there, and we have yet to see Arenas break a big one for points. So, as much as I would like to say we’ll create some points on defense and special teams, I’m not sure we will.
On the other side, though, admittedly, our defense should not surrender many points. In terms of “legitimate” points — where Kentucky marches down the field and scores — we probably won’t give up any more than 7 or 10 points to the ’Cats.
But if our offense is struggling to score points and we don’t get big plays on defense and special teams, we aren’t scoring a lot of points either. So where does that put us? 21-7? 17-10? 17-7? 21-10?
I don’t know exactly, of course, but it could easily produce yet another low scoring game that is pretty close. And once you get that, one of two plays can easily change the direction of it all. Say we give up another kick return — and keep in mind that we have yet to have a game without a big return to date — or that we have a turnover on offense deep in our own territory giving them cheap points. What then? You’re probably looking at a razor thin game, and you’re going to have to fight like hell to get the victory.
Again, I hope that’s not the case. Hopefully we can re-establish the running game, the defense will shut down the Kentucky offense, create some turnovers, not give Kentucky any cheap points, and we’ll win with relative ease much like we did against Arkansas last year. That said, though, objectively I’m not sure that will all come to fruition, and the smart money is probably on most of those things not happening, thus yielding a close game.
by outsidethesidelines on Oct 2, 2009 1:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
our struggles last year passing against Kentucky could also be attributed to JP Wilson’s limitations as a passer. He was not the most accurate passer. We also didn’t have a receiver other than Julio Jones who could make plays, while this season, we have several. I don’t expect us to have a great rushing attack tomorrow, but I think that our ability to pass will ultimately open up a few lanes.
I will put my money on Julio one-on-one against Lindley. Or, let me rephrase to keep in mind with my betting logic as it applies to Alabama, I will put my money on Lindley against Julio one-on-one. :)
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
by Bamagrad on Oct 2, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i will not criticise arenas...
…for “having yet to break a big one for points” this year. he’s seemed a bit more conservative, yes, but he’s also not made the boneheaded mistakes like he was prone to last year when he was trying too hard to make something happen.
the ideal opportunity to break one is going to happen and i’ve got every confidence that he is going to take advantage of it. but the fact he isn’t trying to turn every return into six points no matter what is a step forward in his development and should be lauded.
by kleph on Oct 2, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seconded...
…and let’s not forget the two returns that were called back last week…particularly the one he returned to about the five-yard line. If you read the interview with Arenas this week, he essentially said what you said about his return game this year, kleph. He’s making better decisions and trying to limit mistakes…and he’s still doing a fine job returning the ball.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 2, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not disagreeing...
… it may very well happen. My point is only that there are no certainties on that front, and even with a great returner a huge return is still a bit of a rarity.
by outsidethesidelines on Oct 2, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Kentucky...
…holds us to 17 points this year, that in itself is a victory of sorts for them. And I don’t see it. Kentucky was last year’s trap game for us, and we lived down to it. Sure, we ran it down their throats, but we were very sloppy, and — once we built an early lead — our motivation to compete dissapated.
We should have much more motivation this year: it’s our first true road test against an SEC foe, it’s our first game since we lost Hightower (dammit), we remember how we let them hang around last year, we ran like poop last week, and we’re still embarrassed by the way we finished last season.
One of our biggest faults since at least some time in the 90s is that we have typically played down to our opponents, we’ve lacked motivation unless it was a big game. You can say we did it this year in the first half of the Florida Atlantic International State Tech whatever game, but we were coming off a huge win over a top ten team, one we had to win in the 4th quarter. And we still took care of business in the 2nd half. In our other three games, we’ve kept our focus.
We will be motivated tomorrow, and that should be enough for a solid win.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 2, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good Points
I agree. I think the CATS are going to have a hard time keeping us off the board. Predictions aren’t worth anything but I’ll say, 30 to 3, Bama.
by M. Johnson Defender on Oct 2, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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