So is the SEC scheduling to blame for the astronomical discrepancy in opponents coming off of bye weeks that I discussed in this post? Or is it the individual schools themselves, who can ultimately choose when to schedule non-conference games and when to leave a slot open for byes? Well, statistically, the answer is both.

Total opponents coming off non-SEC-game weeks prior to matchup, 2007-2010
Alabama - 24     
Auburn - 21   
Florida - 16    
Tennessee - 14
Georgia - 14
Mississippi - 13       
LSU - 13      
Vanderbilt - 12    
South Carolina - 11   
Mississippi State - 9
Kentucky - 8  
Arkansas - 6

Yes, this means that for the 32 SEC games we will have played from 2007-2010, we will have faced only 8 teams that had an SEC game scheduled the week before, meaning that 75% of the time our SEC opponents will not have had a conference game the week before. Meaning that in addition to playing generally weaker opponents the week before, on 75% of the occasions, our SEC opponents have had the option, if they so choose, to schedule their bye week.

Looking at the stats above, you can see that the distribution is much more normal than that of the byes themselves, with most teams clustered in the middle of the range and 2-3 outliers on each end. However, a range of 6 to 24 is huge considering the SEC schedule should be completely impartial. So huge in fact that, without breaking out the really fancy statistics this time, I'll just say that it is virtually statistically impossible to see a distribution range this big if it was truly random. And since the SEC office makes the SEC schedule, it should be pretty random ideally.

Now, for about the 4th time, I will reiterate that I am not claiming conspiracy. That said, something about the way the SEC schedule is set up year in and year out (probably just by accident or failure to think ahead) clearly disadvantages Alabama (and Auburn for that matter) by giving their opponents so many more chances to schedule bye weeks ahead of their matchup, not to mention giving them generally easier opponents even when they don't have byes.

Now, the SEC schedule favoring certain schools only tells half the story. As has been discussed earlier, individual ADs are generally free to schedule non-conference opponents in the weeks for which there are no scheduled conference games. I know that often major non-conference matchups are set years in advance (such as Alabama already having lined up Michigan State in 2016, etc.), but by and large, schools do get ultimate say about what date they leave open for a bye.

And yes, I do realize that it is perfectly natural for schools to choose to leave open weeks prior to matchups against teams they would like more time to rest and prepare for (read: powerhouse teams). So no, this part of the puzzle is not expected to be random. Take us for example. Of course it's no coincidence that our bye week this year and next is before facing our toughest division opponent, LSU. All of that said though, check out the rates at which schools, when given the opportunity (meaning no SEC game the week before) scheduled a bye before each opponent:

Percentage of opponents scheduling byes during non-SEC-game weeks prior to matchup, 2007-2010
Alabama - 70.8% - 17out of 24
LSU - 38.5% - 5 out of 13
Tennessee - 28.6% - 4 out of 14
Florida - 25.0% - 4 out of 16
Vanderbilt - 25.0% - 3 out of 12
Kentucky - 25.0% - 2out of 8
Georgia - 21.1% - 3 out of 14
Auburn - 14.3% - 3 out of 21
Mississippi State - 11.1% - 1out of 9
Mississippi - 7.7% - 1 out of 13
Arkansas - 0.0%  - 0 out of 6
South Carolina - 0.0% - 0 out of 11

That's right. When given the chance by the conference schedule, just over 70% of our SEC opponents have arranged bye weeks before playing us.  No one else is even above 40%.  And let's not forget that our opponents are given tons of chances to schedule byes before meeting us thanks to the conference schedule.  It's especially curious to see our rate so much higher than, say LSU or Florida, given that the schedules for these years were mostly finalized before our re-emergence as a powerhouse last season.

So there you have it.  Both the format of the SEC conference schedule and the fact that our opponents choose byes before playing us at a much, much higher rate than even other powerhouses like Florida and LSU combines to give us the unbelievably large discrepancy in bye-week opponents.

I'd love to hear what everyone thinks about this, and I wonder what, if anything, can or should be done about it. I suppose we can't do much about what individual ADs choose to do, but surely the SEC schedule can be adapted to ensure a more equal distribution of bye week opportunities. 

Finally, consider this stat: since 2006, BCS conference teams coming off bye weeks win 54.8% of the time, compared to 45.2% for their opponents.  That may not seem like a lot when it comes to one particular game, but play those odds out in 17 different games and they're likely to become a factor in at least one or two.