A bit of a late start this week, but nevertheless let's get things kicked off with the Mississippi State open thread. Here goes a few thoughts on the Bullies:

• Alabama opened this game at around a 14-point favorite, but that line has now fallen to around 12 points. The last over / under I saw was around 44, so a 28-14 type game is expected from the boys in Vegas.
  
• Is MSU one of the most underrated teams around? I think so. They have already gotten four wins, and while they won't likely make a bowl game, that has more to do with a incredibly difficult schedule than anything else. Drawing Georgia Tech (likely ACC champion) and Houston (likely C-USA champion) on the OOC schedule was terrible enough, but then you also get 'Bama, Florida, and LSU? That's just brutal. Based on how they have played, though, MSU would probably make a bowl game this year if they were lucky enough to have a schedule like Ole Miss or Kentucky has. And it should be pointed out that MSU actually beat Kentucky in Lexington, and that they may very well upset Ole Miss in Starkvegas if Colonel Reb doesn't start playing better.
  
• And speaking of that murderer's row of a schedule, MSU has fought hard and kept things close. Florida only beat them by 10, and LSU needed a couple of miracles to escape Starkvegas with the victory. Houston won by only 7, and Georgia Tech had to fight to the very end, too. Combined, those teams have roughly a 33-4 record, and MSU has kept it close in each game. With that in mind, I wouldn't really expect a blowout here.
  
• Tyson Lee is a decent spread option quarterback and has played pretty well. He's far from an elite athlete, but he does have decent enough mobility to be a running threat, and he has thrown the ball relatively well (60% completion percentage). The biggest problem with him -- and MSU in general offensively -- has been turnovers.
  
• Anthony Dixon is probably one of the top two or three tailbacks in the SEC, even though he doesn't get the credit. He was a highly-touted recruit out of Jackson who could have basically gone anywhere, and it's been a lack of publicity hurting him more than anything else. He's already ran for over 1,000 yards this year, and he's the best power runner we'll face all year (Hardesty, Scott, and Tate included). Together with Christian Ducre they have a dang good 1-2 punch at tailback.
  
• Wide receiver is a big issue for MSU. Chad Bumphis is probably their best player, many calling him a poor man's Percy Harvin. He's a good athlete that Saban himself recruited very hard, but any time a true freshman is easily your most productive receiver, that's bad news.
  
• The MSU offensive line has been better than expected. It hasn't been great by any stretch, but not the trainwreck that many expected.
  
• MSU spreads the field a good bit, and it's interesting as to what they do. They like to spread you out, but they mix in a tough power running game from Dixon. That forces a defense to make some tough choices in terms of what kind of personnel package they use to attack MSU. Do you try to stop a power running game with extra defensive backs so you can cover the spread, or do you load the box with linebackers and hope your skill guys can get it done in isolation?
  
• Defensively, MSU hasn't stopped the run particularly well this year. Hopefully 'Bama takes advantage of that and gets a big day from both Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson.
  
• The strength of MSU defensively comes at linebacker, and it's a good unit. Jamar Cheney at middle linebacker is probably the best defensive player you've never heard of, and K.J. Wright is a really good athlete alongside him. Chris White plays the weakside, and he's a good player too.
  
• The MSU defensive backfield is really a rebuild this year with a lot of new faces. I'm not going to go out and say that they are a bad group because they are 37th in pass efficiency defense (not bad really) and they have improved over the course of the year. However, the past five SEC games against Kentucky, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, and LSU have all seen the Tide face really good secondaries, and admittedly this one is a fairly big step down. This will be the weakest group of DB's we have seen since Arkansas left town.
• MSU is dead last in the SEC in net punting, and something like 115th in the country in net punting. We need to take advantage of that and make them pay for it in the punt return game. After getting only one net return yard on eight punts against ROBO-PUNTER LSU, it'd be nice to see Arenas have another big game.
• All in all, MSU isn't a bad team, and coming off a bye week will certainly help them. They've played a lot of good teams this year and have held their own each and every time, so a blowout shouldn't be expected. We've always played poorly in Starkvegas, and that might not change this year. Hopefully, though, we'll play well enough to avoid any major problems. This one could be a relatively close game, but we're clearly the better team and we're going to have to really shoot ourselves in the foot to give the Bullies a legitimate chance to get the victory.
• I wonder if they'll have another cropduster flyover this year like they did on John Parker Wilson Day in 2007?