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Around SBN: The Record of Wrongs: Vanderbilt Commodores

Running Back Success (Or Rather, Failure) Rates: Opposing Teams vs. Alabama

After seeing Nico’s posts on Alabama’s running back success rates against opposing defenses, I decided to take a look at the other side in every individual game. I was hoping through my ridiculous amount of effort that I might learn something that I didn’t already know. But all I re-learned is we’re awesome. I used the same categories for success as Nico did, meaning: to succeed on 1st down, they would have to gain 40% of the distance needed; 2nd down: 60%; 3rd or 4th down: 100%. I also added negative and no-gain rush categories, as well as runs of 10 yards or more.

 

First,

 

Virginia Tech

Season Average: 4.6 YPC, 190 Yards per game

Vs. Alabama (including sacks): 31 Rushes, 64 Yards, 2.1 YPC

Negative Rushes (excluding sacks): 5/29 = 17%

No-Gain Rushes: 2/29 = 7%

Successful Rushes: 12/29 = 41%

Runs of 10 yards or more = 2/31 (16, 32) = 6%

1st Half Stats (Excluding Sacks): 17 rushes, 2 Yards, .1 per carry, 33% Success Rate

2nd Half Stats (Excluding Sacks): 12 rushes, 97 Yards, 8.1 per carry, 50% Success Rate

 

The defense made Tyrod Taylor a negative factor on the ground (-26 yards rushing), and only gave up one big run to Ryan Williams (32 yards), who was otherwise completely contained, for a TD in the second half. This has turned out to be the longest run of the year against our defense. 24% of VT’s running plays were no-gain plays or negative plays. Negative plays in particular are drive killers, which accounted for 17% of VT’s rushing plays. There was a very big difference between our 1st and 2nd half performance in this game on rush defense.

 

Florida International

Season Average: 2.5 YPC, 86 Yards per game

Vs. Alabama (including sacks): 26 rushes, 1 Yard, 0 YPC

Negative Rushes (excluding sacks): 4/21 =19%

No-Gain Rushes: 3/21 = 14%

Successful Rushes: 7/21 = 33%

Runs of 10 Yards or More: 0/26 = 0%

1st Half Stats (excluding sacks): 8 rushes, 12 Yards, 1.5 per carry, 38% Success Rate

2nd Half Stats (excluding sacks):14 rushes, 27 Yards, 1.9 per carry, 31% Success Rate

 

Alabama dominated Florida International’s run game, causing 33% of their rushing plays to go for negative or zero yards, equaling the percentage of successful rushes we allowed, none of which went for 10 yards or more. Darriet Perry, FIU’s main running back in the game, gained 5 yards on 9 carries.

 

North Texas

Season Average: 5.4 YPC, 198 Yards per game

Vs. Alabama (including sacks): 26 Rushes, 61 Yards, 2.3 YPC

Negative Rushes (excluding sacks): 2/26 = 7%

No-Gain Rushes: 7/26 = 27%

Successful Rushes: 7/26 = 27%

Runs of 10 Yards or More: 0/26 = 0%

1st Half Stats (excluding sacks): 9 Carries, 9 Yards, 1 YPC, Success Rate: 0%

2nd Half Stats (excluding sacks): 16 Carries, 51 Yards, 3.2 YPC, Success Rate: 44%

 

We dominated North Texas as well, holding them to no gain or a loss nine times. They had successful rushes only seven times in comparison, and once again none of them were ten or more yards long. Five out of the seven successful rushes for North Texas were on their final drive in garbage time. The first half was the only half of the year that we held a team to a 0% success rate.

 

Arkansas

Season Average: 4.7 YPC, 142 Yards per game

Vs. Alabama (including sacks): 26 Rushes, 63 Yards, 2.4 YPC

Negative Rushes (excluding sacks): 3/22 = 14%

No-Gain Rushes: 0 = 0%

Successful Rushes: 6/22 = 27%

Runs of 10 Yards or More: 2/22 = 9% (18, 12)

1st Half Stats (excluding sacks): 14 Rushes, 55 Yards, 3.9 YPC, 21% Success Rate

2nd Half Stats (excluding sacks):  8 Rushes, 36 Yards, 4.5 YPC, 38% Success Rate

 

Alabama’s first test against an SEC running unit was a big success. Only six successful rushes and we shut down Ryan Mallett. They had two rushes of ten yards or more, but the 18-yarder was on 3rd and 25, which counts as a failure.

 

Kentucky

Season Average: 4.6 YPC, 187 Yards per game

Vs. Alabama (including sacks): 38 rushes, 133 yards, 3.5 YPC

Negative Rushes (excluding sacks): 3/36 = 8%

No-Gain Rushes: 2/36 = 6%

Successful Rushes: 20/36 = 56%

Runs of 10 Yards or More: 4/36 = 11% (11, 11, 18, 15)

1st Half Stats (excluding sacks): 23 rushes, 81 yards, 3.5 YPC, 43% Success Rate

2nd Half Stats (excluding sacks): 13 rushes, 65 yards, 5 YPC, 77% Success Rate

 

The worst statistical game so far, we allowed Kentucky to succeed on 56% of their carries overall, and 77% in the second half. It was good that we created all the turnovers we did (particularly the fumble just before the half) so that they were forced to pass in the second half. And our offense performed pretty well.  Still, holding them to 3.5 YPC is not bad, just bad for us.

 

Mississippi

Season Average: 4.7 YPC, 176 Yards per game

Vs. Alabama (including sacks): 23 Rushes, 71 Yards, 3.1 YPC

Negative Rushes (excluding sacks): 5/23 = 22%

No-Gain Rushes: 4/23 = 17%

Successful Rushes: 5/23 = 22%

Runs of 10 Yards or More: 3/23 = 13% (15, 10, 18)

1st Half Stats (excluding sacks): 10 Rushes, 3 Yards, .3 YPC, 10% Success Rate

2nd Half Stats (excluding sacks): 13 Rushes, 68 Yards, 5.2 YPC, 31% Success Rate

 

This was an all-around great defensive performance in which Kareem Jackson looked like Antonio Langham for at least one play. We absolutely dominated Ole Miss in the first half, holding them to just three rushing yards. Negative and no-gain rushes accounted for 39% (nine) of their rushing plays, while they only had five successful rushes. Three of those went for ten yards or more, but Snead ran all of those and one of them was on 3rd and 13 for 10 yards and another was on 4th and 20 for 18 yards. Both were failures.

 

South Carolina

Season Average: 4.0 YPC, 129 Yards per game

Vs. Alabama (including sacks): 27 Rushes, 64 Yards, 2.4 YPC

Negative Rushes (excluding sacks): 3/22 = 14%

No-Gain Rushes: 3/22 = 14%

Successful Rushes: 8/22 = 36%

Runs of 10 Yards or More: 3/22 =14% (12, 21, 12)

1st Half Stats (excluding sacks): 10 Rushes, 54 Yards, 5.4 YPC, 40% Success Rate

2nd Half Stats (excluding sacks): 12 Rushes, 39 Yards, 3.3 YPC, 33% Success Rate

 

We had five sacks in another fine defensive performance. Also, 28% of South Carolina’s rushing plays went for negative or no yards. However, the three runs of 10 yards or more all came on the same drive that let South Carolina make it a one score game with a field goal just before halftime. If we had not allowed those plays, the game would not have been such a close one near the end. On the other hand, this is the only game where our rushing defense improved in the second half, and we did not let them score again.

 

Tennessee

Season Average: 4.6 YPC, 172 Yards per game

Vs. Alabama (including sacks): 35 Rushes, 76 Yards, 2.2 YPC

Negative Rushes (excluding sacks): 4/32 = 13%

No-Gain Rushes: 1/32 = 3%

Successful Rushes: 15/32 = 47%

Runs of 10 Yards or More: 1/32 = 3% (10)

1st Half Stats (excluding sacks): 12 rushes, 32 Yards, 2.7 YPC, 33% Success Rate

2nd Half Stats (excluding sacks): 20 Rushes, 63 Yards, 3.2 YPC, 50% Success Rate

 

Despite being on the field for 46 plays (Alabama’s offense had 19) and 20:33 in the second half, the defense was relentless, holding Tennessee to 3.2 YPC, and, when most teams would break, they continued fighting until the final play. There was not much of a drop off at all in rush defense from first to second half even under these extremely unfavorable circumstances. Our defense was amazing.

 

 

While we have allowed just 15 rushes of 10 + yards (long of 32, average: 15 yards), we have also accounted for 29 negative rushes and 22 no-gainers through eight games (and a total of only 533 yards). Overall, we hold opponents to 42% of their average rushing yardage, and we’ve never been outgained on the ground. However, in every game except one we’ve seen a decrease in effectiveness in the second half. Still, every time I see an opposing offense call a run play, I think, “Do you know who you’re playing? This is Alabama. You’re going nowhere.” Or as Marty Lyons yelled just before the Goal Line Stand, “You’d better pass!”

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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Good post...

…and thanks for all the work putting it together.

You had me at "ROLL TIDE"!!!

by bamavicki on Nov 2, 2009 7:43 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

dude, you did some serious work

props to ya, very informative as well

"Well Eli, Smokey just came out of the tunnel, and he's about 100 yards away from me now, and if I had my deer rifle I believe I could drop him, back to you Eli" -- Jerry Duncan's comments to Eli Gold just prior to kickoff against Tennessee

by Thomas Walker Esq on Nov 2, 2009 7:49 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wow. Great work.

It’s interesting that Arkansas, Ole Miss, and So. Car. all had relatively the same or fewer successful rushing percentages as Florida International. That’s something when a defense can hold three separate SEC teams to that low of a success rate! I enjoy re-learning that we’re awesome. Thanks for the post.

I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR

by SugarBowl93 on Nov 2, 2009 9:46 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, yeah, yeah...

The Tide under Saban is awesome and will cure cancer with their mad football skills. :P But seriously, they’ve cured my Shula-blues, and no matter what’s wrong, this is yet more proof that Alabama is back. As a fan of the houndstooth, that feels damned good.

Just because I'm an occasional to frequent troll, doesn't mean I lack a heart or don't have a point. Rocky Top Talk blog ban: I did it for teh lulz.

by Anarchon on Nov 4, 2009 11:36 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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