The Algebraic Keys to Winning the SECC...
by TopDaddy on Nov 30, 2009 12:28 PM CST
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So Bama and UF have had six common opponents this season: UK, USCe, Miss St, UT, LSU, and Ark.
Using the stats from these games, we find the following:
Average Points per Game: Bama - 26.6; Fla - 25.5
Average Offensive Yards: Bama - 314; Fla - 375
Average Plays per Game: Bama - 63.3; Fla - 66.8
Using these numbers gives you:
Average Yards per Point: Bama - 11.8; Fla - 14.7; which basically just shows you the effeciency of yardage gained toward scoring points.
Average Yards per Play: Bama - 4.96; Fla - 5.61.
Using these two numbers for each team, we find out that (assuming both teams maintain the same efficiency) Bama will need to run at least 91% of the total number of plays that Florida runs to stay ahead score-wise.
[(5.61)(Total # of Florida Plays)] / 14.7 = [(4.96)(Total # of Bama Plays)] / 11.8
So, if Florida sticks to their average of running just under 67 plays per game, Bama will have to run at least 61 plays to win the ballgame. Simple as that!
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I can write the word MATH...
but I couldn’t tell you how many letters are in it…
enjoy...
by SpockJenkins on Nov 30, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
ha!
that made me laugh out loud…
by Queen of the Universe on Nov 30, 2009 6:42 PM CST up reply actions
Also forgot to mention here...
That if you plug the average number of plays listed for each team into the given equation, you come up with a final score of:
27-25, Bama!
"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant
it is!
Ballgame! Bring on Pasadena. I’ll crunch those numbers too.
"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant
by TopDaddy on Nov 30, 2009 2:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
hahaha...you've got spunk, verve and panache...
enjoy...
by SpockJenkins on Nov 30, 2009 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
Were they in the Geto Boys?
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Nov 30, 2009 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
But damn...
…it feels good to be a gangsta….
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Nov 30, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions
I think your numbers must be off
I don’t see 52 points being scored in this game. I see more like half that many.
He meant...
…by Alabama….
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Nov 30, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions
Well, 51 was scored in this one last year...
and both these offenses are producing more yards than last year, with very similar defenses, so I figure that’s worth at least a point.
Keep in mind that these are not bias numbers, and I didn’t take existing numbers and tweak them how I wanted. This is what it is based on our 6 common opponents.
"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant
Not sure about Bama's comparison '08 to '09
But our offense is worse than last season and our defense is better.
our O is much improved and our D is(was) working towards perfection (obviously, last week was a giant slip up)
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
by tempebamafan on Dec 1, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
I wonder how Special Teams play figures in.
If the analysis, here at RBR, is correct then it doesn’t look good. Right?
We can only be as efficient as stated above if we are playing on shorter fields than Florida.
If we are not expecting Javy to be as prolific (because of tighter return coverage by Florida) and higher/deeper kicks (from C. Henry & C. Sturgis), then shouldn’t we have to move further than in previous games?
If Florida has a better defense than we’ve faced this season, then shouldn’t we expect to be able to move the ball less than we have averaged?
I know that the sword cuts both ways and Florida has to do battle against a tougher defense than they have fought all year as well…
…but doesn’t this lead us back to the importance of special teams play?
special teams...
And turnovers are what make and break yards per point rankings. Other smaller factors go into it, but that’s the main two.
"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant
by TopDaddy on Nov 30, 2009 3:49 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
yikes...
all that math! I don’t really get any of it, but it sounds really impressive…
Can someone put this in iambic pantameter for me?
by Queen of the Universe on Nov 30, 2009 6:46 PM CST reply actions
iambic pentameter...
The crimson tide will roll again.
"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant
by TopDaddy on Nov 30, 2009 7:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
ah yes...
it’s all clear to me now. Much obliged :)
by Queen of the Universe on Nov 30, 2009 8:26 PM CST up reply actions
24-10 Bama
It will be 10-10 at the half, and we will not let them score in the second half. I think UF will try to mimic some of the things AU suprised us with and find themselves out of their game. I have a feeling that they are going to struggle against the run and we will get them on our terms where we can control them.
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