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Around SBN: Uga VII, Requiescat in Pace: A Tribute to a Damn Good 'Dawg

The LSU Preview

No smoke and mirrors needed this week. No clever turn of phrase needed to build drama and intrigue with this game. Nope. To paraphrase what they say in the sales business, this is simply a game that sells itself. It's 'Bama v. LSU. Saban Bowl III. National championship implications clearly on the line. The entire country turning its eyes towards Tuscaloosa to play close attention at this contest. Again, this one sells itself. Let's look closer at the match-ups:

Alabama Offense v. LSU Defense

After putting up points and yards by the bushel in the first month of the season, the once prolific Alabama offense has slowly ground to a virtual halt over the course of the past five weeks. The vertical element of the passing game went into the Witness Protection Program in early October, and we still haven't seen any signs of it returning as of this writing. Mark Ingram has been nothing short of phenomenal -- sans the fumble against Tennessee -- but the lack of a vertical element to the passing game, combined with untimely penalties, questionable playcalling, and struggles in the red zone have kept the Tide offensive attack at bay and off the scoreboard.

Admittedly, the level of competition has been high the past several weeks. Kentucky has a good defense, and Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Tennessee rank in the top 25 nationally of more statistical categories than not. But such is life in the SEC... it's a brutal gauntlet of quality opponent after quality opponent, and there will be no rest for the weary this weekend when the Bayou Bengals come to town. Alas, when LSU arrives in Tuscaloosa, they will bring with them a defense that is as good as those we saw in October, if not better.

And unfortunately, injuries continue to take a toll on the Tide. Colin Peek looks to either miss this game or play nowhere near 100%, and that's a very big loss for the Tide. Michael Williams will likely play better than he did two weeks ago against Tennessee because he will be more prepared, but Peek is a critical element of our offense, and unfortunately Williams is an imperfect substitute.

Defensively, the weakness for LSU starts up front at the line of scrimmage. Shocking as though that may be -- I imagine I need remind no one that LSU's defensive line ate us for dinner from 2003-2007 -- it is nevertheless true. To be sure, it's certainly not a bad group, but it isn't a dominating one and it is not up to the level that we have come to expect the past several years out of LSU. Inside, seniors Al Woods and Charles Alexander are good players that any team would love to have, but they probably aren't to the level that we saw the past several years out of LSU with Kyle Williams and Glenn Dorsey. Likewise, the rotation isn't what it has been in previous years in terms of quality depth.

The real weakness for LSU on the defensive line largely comes outside at end. Senior Rahim Alem has been a bit of a disappointment this year. He was always a liability against the run -- which is why, despite leading the SEC in sacks in 2008, he wasn't a starter -- but he hasn't rushed the passer as well this year, generating only three sacks in the first eight games (only one of which came in conference play, and that was against Vandy). Opposite Alem, Lazarius Levingston hasn't exactly played poorly, but he hasn't really made an impact either. He has yet to generate a sack, and only has ten tackles on the year. Making matters worse, they are somewhat undersized, and mixed with their lack of a consistent pass rush, that generally explains why LSU's run defense has been somewhat middling, and also explains why they are at the bottom of the SEC in sacks.

Unfortunately, the rest of the LSU defense is significantly better. The linebacker corps struggled greatly in 2008, but they have made tremendous strides in 2009 under new defensive coordinator John Chavis. There is not one standout at linebacker like Alabama has with someone like Rolando McClain -- or had with Dont'a Hightower -- but it's a good group that gets the job done. Perry Riley, Kelvin Sheppard, Harry Coleman, and Jacob Cutrera are all good football players, and they are in many ways unique players that give Chavis a lot of options. Riley is a big, physical player who excels against against the run, and Coleman's past as a former safety makes him a very versatile player, particularly in passing situations. Kelvin Sheppard is probably the best all-around player of the bunch, and while Cutrera isn't a standout, he's a senior who can really play whatever position they need off the bench. Again, it's not a group that has the one rockstar standout like you find with a guy like Rolando McClain or Brandon Spikes, but it's a good group of players that have produced at a high level for John Chavis.

The real strength of the LSU defense, however, comes in the defensive backfield, where the Bayou Bengals have an absolutely ridiculous collection of talent. Just look at the names and their recruiting hype... Chad Jones, #1 safety prospect in the country in 2007. Jai Eugene, #1 cornerback prospect in the country in 2006. Patrick Peterson, #1 cornerback prospect in the country in 2007. And guys like Chris Hawkins, Brandon Taylor, Karnell Hatcher, Ron Brooks, and Danny McCray? Yeah, they were generally "only" four-star recruits who could have had pretty much their pick of any school in the country.

Star-divide

Not surprising given that collection of talent, LSU's defensive backfield has led the way. Patrick Peterson is the best cornerback in the conference now that Kentucky's Trevard Lindley is slowed by an ankle injury, and Chad Jones is every bit as good of a safety as Eric Berry. And, obviously, the rest aren't too shabby. These guys have been the key for the LSU defense this year. The defensive line has struggled and frankly been very bad in terms of rushing the passer, but the back end has covered so well that LSU still fields one of the best pass defenses in the country.

Coach Saban and company have talked about stretching the field vertically this weekend, and that is almost certainly something that we will have to do in order to breathe life back into our deceased offense. LSU does not have the great run defense that they have sported in years past, but it's far from a bad unit, and you can rest assured that they will be able to limit Alabama's running game well enough to force the Tide to do something in the passing game in order to score a lot of points. Keep in mind that, as I mentioned in the Radio Hour, if you are unable to throw the football, then defensively you don't need to stop the run, you only need to somewhat limit the run. In other words, you just have to make sure that the opposing offense doesn't run it down your throats to the tune of 250+ rushing yards. Rest assured, LSU is likely more than good enough to do that up front.

Offensively, Alabama faces the same dilemma that it largely faced against Tennessee. Greg McElroy and the passing attack have struggled to move the football, and the opposing defense will look to limit Ingram and company and force McElroy and the wide receiver corps to beat them. Unless we can be more consistent and explosive in the passing game, the end result looks to be very similar to what it was against Tennessee.

Alabama Defense v. LSU Offense

For all of the strength of the LSU defense, the LSU offense hasn't been anywhere near as good, and if you look closely this is a group that ranks near the bottom of the country in most statistical categories.

At the skill positions, at least, this is an extremely dangerous offense. Without doubt the LSU wide receiver corps is easily the most talented that the Tide will face all season, and literally every single LSU wide receiver that will touch the football this Saturday will be a truly elite athlete in every sense of the phrase. Brandon LaFell will be a first-day draft pick next April, and both Terrance Toliver and Reuben Randle are physically impressive players who were the #1 wide receiver prospects in the country when they came out of high school. Richard Dickson is a good tight end in his own right, and he too will probably play on Sunday. Furthermore, Charles Scott is also a future NFL player, and while Keiland Williams never really lived up to his five-star status when he signed with the Tigers in 2006, he's still a fine player in his own right. And finally, while Russell Shepard and Trindon Holliday are somewhat of one-trick ponies, both have such ungodly speed and athleticism that they can present major challenges to a defense once they get the ball in their hands. Bottom line, struggles or not, if you look at the quality at talent at the skill positions for LSU, you would swear this is an elite offense.

The real problem with LSU offensively has been in the trenches and, perhaps not surprisingly, at the quarterback position. Struggles in those two areas have largely grounded the LSU offensive attack, and have turned an offense that should be high-powered based solely on its skill position talent into a unit that has greatly struggled to move the football and score points.

Ciron Black at left tackle for the Bayou Bengals is a four-year starter who will likely be a first round NFL draft choice next April, and at right tackle Joseph Barksdale -- a five-star recruit in 2007 -- is one of the best right tackles in the SEC. Unfortunately for the Tigers, however, the performance of the centers and guards has dipped significantly. The loss of starting left guard Herman Johnson and starting center Brett Helms have been felt all season, and the replacements just aren't in the same league right now. Josh Dworaczyk took over for Johnson, and the replacement starter for the gargantuan comes in at barely 280 pounds. Likewise, sophomore T-Bob Hebert hasn't necessarily been bad, but again he's just not in the same league as Helms right now. Right guard Lyle Hitt looked solid enough when sandwiched between Helms and Barksdale, but he too has seen his performance dip by having to take on greater responsibilities with Hebert alongside him. As a whole, the performance of the center and the guards just hasn't been anywhere what it was a year ago.

The struggles on the interior offensive line have effectively proven fatal to the LSU rushing attack. I've long said that the biggest impact on your rushing attack comes from the play of your center and your guards, and 2009 Tigers would prove to be a fine case study in that regard. The tackles are there, as are the backs, but LSU has struggled on the interior in the running game, and that has largely killed their rushing attack. The once potent Scott and Williams are averaging only about 4.8 yards per carry now, and prior to facing Tulane and their god awful run defense they were barely averaging 4.0 yards per carry.

The other problem for LSU offensively is quarterback Jordan Jefferson. While clearly an intriguing prospect with a great upside -- Jefferson has a good frame, a big arm, and is a legitimate dual-threat -- Jefferson is really playing out of necessity right now, and it shows. Truth be told, if the LSU coaching staff really had their druthers, Jefferson would probably be riding the pine this year while watching fifth-year senior Ryan Perrilloux run the Tiger offense, but alas the Football Gods would not cooperate. As a result, Jefferson has been forced to make the best of a bad situation, and he has clearly had his growing pains. He holds onto the ball entirely too long which creates a lot of sacks -- which explains why LSU is near the bottom of the conference in sacks allowed despite having the best tackle combo in the league -- often struggles to work through his progression, and does struggle at times to get the ball to his talented wide receivers. Combined, this has largely grounded what should otherwise be an explosive passing attack.

In all fairness, though, what Jefferson has done is manage the game and not get his Tigers beat. For all of the criticisms that you can make regarding his performance to date, he has protected the football, which is clearly priority number one for the LSU coaching staff. Jefferson has thrown a mere four interceptions this year on roughly 200 passing attempts, and has allowed the LSU defense to lead them to victory in close games. If nothing else, that is far more than could ever be said for the man that Jefferson replaced.

Defensively, Alabama brings the attack that you all know so well, and there will probably be little changes this week. Charles Scott and Keiland Williams had great success running the football against us a year ago, but with a healthy Terrence Cody this time around, plus Herman Johnson and Brett Helms playing on Sunday, the Tide ought to shut down the LSU rushing attack. If Charles Scott and company have a good deal of success come Saturday, it will legitimately come as a bit of a surprise.

The real key for the Alabama defense will be containing big plays in the passing game. For lack of a better way of putting it, the skill position players for LSU are unreal good, and they will stretch us to the absolute maximum this weekend. Our defensive backfield, collectively, will have to play the game of their lives this weekend, and to make matters even more worrisome we will also have to make sure that Russell Shepard or Trindon Holliday also don't beat us with a long run out of the backfield. Given the way we have struggled offensively the past several weeks, even giving up only one or two really long plays can easily be the difference between victory and defeat, and unless the offense improve, our defense has effectively zero margin of error.

Going a long way towards preventing those big plays to the skill position players will be effectively rushing the passer. Jefferson isn't a world-beater at quarterback, but his receivers sure as hell are, and he has the arm to make all of the throws. If Jefferson consistently has time to throw the football, we're in big trouble defensively. The LSU skill position players are simply too good to expect any defensive backfield to keep covered for any real length of time.

Putting It All Together

All in all, these two teams match up closely. If the Alabama offense were producing like it did earlier in the year, the Tide could be reasonably expected to win this game with relative ease, but with our offensive struggles of the past month and no definite sign of improvement, this game figures to be a close one that goes right down to the wire. Unless we can significantly improve offensively, the LSU defense is good enough to keep our offensive attack at bay, and while the LSU offense probably won't score a lot of points against our defense, they clearly have another skill position talent on the outside to make a few big plays to squeak out a close victory in a low-scoring game

And do look for this game to be a close, low-scoring game, no two ways about that. Neither team looks to score that many points, and expect the coaching staffs of the respective teams to play accordingly. LSU almost lost to the Tide in 2007 when they chose to kick to Javier Arenas late, and their loss last year was fueled by a slew of costly turnovers. Expect Les Miles and company to avoid both this weekend with a struggling Alabama offense. LSU will kick the football away from Arenas, and play safe on offense so that -- even if they don't score a lot of points in their own right -- they won't take the risks that could result in several costly turnovers. We're struggling greatly on the offensive side of the ball, and when facing a team of that nature you make sure that you do not allow cheap points. Expect LSU to force the Tide's offense to consistently move the ball 60+ yards to get points.

For Alabama, the path to victory is clearly in the trenches. We hold a fairly significant advantage in both match-ups at the line of scrimmage, and there is where we must win this football game. We must stop the run defensively and rush Jefferson, and offensively establish the running game and make like easy for McElroy and the Alabama passing attack. If we can do that, we win this football game. On the other hand, if LSU can fight us to an effective draw in the trenches, then this game will be decided by the skill position players, and that's a losing proposition for us. That's not to say we absolutely cannot win a game of that nature, but LSU does have more raw talent at the skill positions than we do, and that is a game that will clearly favor the Bayou Bengals. Again, our path to victory lies in the trenches. We have to dominate this game at the line of scrimmage. Period.

One way or the other, look for this to be an absolutely brutal game. The stakes are extremely high for both LSU and Alabama, and their respective players will perform accordingly. Les Miles, regardless of whether or not it is fair, will forever be judged relative to Nick Saban, something that is clearly not lost on Miles or his team. This is their biggest game of the year, and clearly the biggest game of the year for their fan base as well. Truth be told, they have been preparing for this game for two weeks now. Making matters more interesting, this game determines the SEC West, LSU is still technically alive in the national championship race, and they are clearly looking to make a definitive showing that they are still at their 2003-2007 form. On the other sideline, Alabama has been staring this one down for two weeks. We control our own destiny in the national championship race, and we know full well that this is now effectively a one-game season. If we want to get to where we want to go, we all realize that we must directly go through LSU. And, also, don't think for one second that it is lost on our team that they need to win this game in the trenches. Expect these two teams to line up and wage absolute war. There will be blood.

Hope for the best.

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Eeeesh

I’ll be there live, but my stomach will be doing back flips.

Fumbles. It was always Fumbles

by DocFumbles on Nov 6, 2009 9:51 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

This game terrifies me to no end...

and has for months. While I have no doubt that we can shut down Scott, we’re going to absolutely have to contain Shep. JJ is efficient, but it largely looks to be underneath stuff. take away the deep pass/explosive plays, play smart, play hard, and we can win this one by about 10.

Should and will are different things though.

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Nov 6, 2009 10:06 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

JJ is efficient, but it largely looks to be underneath stuff. take away the deep pass/explosive plays

Even if we keep things underneath, we better tackle well when their guys do catch it. With those WR’s, one missed tackle on a 5 yard play turns into a lot more.

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Nov 6, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's the problem...

This is exactly what I was getting at in the preview.

The LSU coaching staff will try to keep things short and underneath. I bet we’ll see five or six screens to the receivers tomorrow, for example. They are going to want to be able to get the football to their playmakers in the passing game with as little risk as possible, and that likely includes a lot of short, safe throws where the LSU coaching staff hopes to give their playmakers a chance to make some plays. I expect to see a lot of that mixed in with a lot of deep throws to the receivers that, even if they go awry, will likely be the equivalent of a punt.

"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 6, 2009 11:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

THE SLANT. DEAR GOD STOP THE SLANT!

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Nov 6, 2009 12:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

You guys sound like a bunch of scared puppies. Our D is as good as Florida’s right? How many points did they put up against Florida? Our rushing attack is as good as Florida and we have better receivers. GMac, this game is in your hands. You got the skills now go light these chumps UP!!!

Myles is a knuckle head, who coach’s with too much emotion. He will be swinging for the fences both on D and offense. We will just simply have to capitalize on their mistakes and take advantage of their weaknesses.

by lbdasdog on Nov 6, 2009 10:33 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

winnar

the Tide rolls by 14 or more, no doubt. Bama’ s D will hold lsu to less than 250 yards and 3 or 6 points max.
 this game should be over before the start of the 4th quarter.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 10:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

True

but you can sometimes fall into a trap when comparing how teams performed against other teams at a different stage of the season. Its certainly valid but you can overdo it. This game has different circumstances surrounding it than that game did. Even with LSU losing to UF, they are still very much in the SEC and NC picture. That’s not the case if they lose this one.

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Nov 6, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the transative performance effect

is often over stated, but i think when you’re using data sets that involve teams that play at a consistently high level (florida, not so much lsu) you have more solid ground to build a hypothosis on. in this instance, i think using the florida-lsu game as a prizim through which to preview this game, would be an illuminating and enlightening exercise. to wit, florida’s D is pretty good, and try as they might lsu simply couldn’t do a damn thing against them. Bama’s D is better than florida’s was that day, so one can safely conclude that barring any sort of game changing event (like LSU suddenly learning how to play O, which their fans have claimed they have done. rational observers on the other hand remain unconvinced) that lsu’s O will perform in much the same manner, if not worse than they did (at home for a night game in tigah stadium, aka Bama’s home away from home) when they played fla. as for our O vs. their D, simply put, they have no pass rush and are weak vs the run. they aren’t dominating or even close to elite in any respect on the D side of the ball. Bama fans and unaffiliated observers alike should expect another dominating performance from the tide, similar tot he clemson game from last season. Bama will own the clock, chew up yards int he run game, and completely and without equivocation, smother and utterly destroy the lsu O.

also, i got my hands up, they’re playin my song, and the butterflies fly away…

we got this.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

True,

you have to use whatever information you have available in order to analyze a game (ouch). I just think sometimes when you start the “Florida is kinda like Alabama, so therefore I conclude…” you start assuming that all other extraneous variables are constant, and they are not. And that gets especially flimsy when you start comparing games played at completely different stages of a season. For example, in the LSU – UF game, one team’s best player was coming off of a pretty serious injury, and that altered that team’s game plan significantly. And given the importance of that certain player, it completely changed the dymanic of the entire game, in all phases. If those two teams played again, at this stage of the season, you might get a completely different game. But then again, you may not.

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Nov 6, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

agreed, tebow being unhealthy was a huge difference

but i think it’s safe to presume that a healthy tebow would of just equaled a greater margin of victory for florida… and yes there are other variables that are unknown that probably adversely affected lsu as well. i think the tebow was injured variable is probably significant enough to render any that might of mitigated LSU’s margin of defeat meaningless. Florida woulda soundly beat lsu if they started brantly, and they woulda destroyed them if they started a healthy tebow.

we got this son!

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent

One of the best comments ever. The use of transitive property for determing wins is one of the stupidest things that fans do.

Example:
-Auburn beat Tennessee by 4 points on the road
-Alabama beat Tennessee by 2 points at home
-Home field is a 3 point advantage
-Auburn would beat Alabama by 5 points on a neutral field.

And yet, believe it or not this is something an Auburn homer would argue.

by Kenny483 on Nov 6, 2009 12:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

stupid? or over used/relied upon?

you’re avatar is a pic of johnny cash…

it is what it is...

by Captain_Obvious on Nov 6, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

your

it is what it is...

by Captain_Obvious on Nov 6, 2009 12:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

However...

…you want to say it. It is something that everyone does when looking at a game. Either wasy, cannot wait for Saturday.

by Kenny483 on Nov 6, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So how does this fit into

Texas, OK, Okie State from last year? On the one hand, I agree that the transitive property thing is quite overrated, but at the same time, what else do you use in a situation like that? Sure they may have played at different times in the season, etc, but how else do you determine who goes to the conference championship? Should there be a playoff to go to a conference championship, and then (idealy) another post season one for the BCS? And isn’t this exactly how the whole BCS system works?

I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR

by SugarBowl93 on Nov 6, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry...Texas Tech - don't know why I mixed them up.

I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR

by SugarBowl93 on Nov 6, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

your

avatar is some jazzed up crack head…

by lbdasdog on Nov 6, 2009 5:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you guys

have more moxie then I. I worry about every game. The last game I went LA Monroe. So I have banished myself from BDS. I just think it will be closer then I’d like and hope that I am wrong.

by chinesedentist on Nov 6, 2009 10:48 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm with chinsesdentist here

I worry about every game. I realize that this is the same LSU team that SHOULD have lost to Mississippi State and lost to the only team it has played with a winning record, but college football is full of games where the team that should win doesn’t always do so.

This is why I understand OTS’s closing phrase. “Hope for the best”

To be honest though, just once I’d like OTS to lie to me and say something like… “And this is why we will totally destroy LSU on Saturday” I’d worry a lot less about the outcome of the game then. :)

by STLbama on Nov 6, 2009 11:03 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

i think we had our trap game already

where the team that didn’t deserve to be in the game much less win, almost stole it. that game has passed, our team knows we’re on the verge of the SEC title game. we will not slip up like we did vs ut. we will convert red zone possessions into touchdowns. we will prevent lsu from ever sustaining a single drive in this game. if lsu scores it will be 1 or 2 field goals which were setup by 1 big play or field position, they will never have a 10 play 5 minute drive for 40 yards. that wont happen.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

amen

When OTS writes such in depth pieces it is great but its so much info that after reading it I find new and exotic things to worry about.

by chinesedentist on Nov 6, 2009 11:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

..
I realize that this is the same LSU team that SHOULD have lost to Mississippi State and lost to the only team it has played with a winning record

No credit for beating Auburn? LOL. We also scored or put MSU in a position to score 13 points that day. It was too close for comfort, but I wouldn’t say that MSU was the team that “SHOULD” have won.

At the end of the day

by Mikeno on Nov 6, 2009 3:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

possibly...

I’ve debated that one for a while… The difference in my mind is that it took a late fumble and an onside kick recovery to make it a “should have” event for us. So Tennessee needed a good bit of luck at the end.

Whereas State’s next to last possession in your game came after they forced a 3 and out, and then drove the ball 49 yards to your two. Not a lot of luck involved there. But… I will say that according to my logic in the original post, we should have lost to Tennessee and I thank the powers that be that we didn’t.

by STLbama on Nov 6, 2009 3:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

forgot about Auburn...

sorry about that. But I don’t think they’re quite the team we thought they were. :)

As far as the state game… they had 1st and goal from the 2. I give your defense total credit on that one. It doesn’t matter who you’re playing against, stopping a team 4 straight times inside the 3 yard line is hard to do.

This is the reason I say “should” have though. 1st and goal from the 2 and you don’t get it in??? And if their quarterback puts another inch or two of air under the ball Chad Jones has not shot at slapping it away… I know the game wasn’t over at that point… but your offense wasn’t exactly running on all cylinders then.

by STLbama on Nov 6, 2009 3:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I hate "should've"

LSU won. There wasn’t a fluke play. There wasn’t a crazy call. There wasn’t the opposing coach deciding to run 40 seconds of clock to play for a 40+ yard field goal when his kicker had already missed two on the day. The defense went out and made the plays.

“Should” rarely comes into it in football. What matters is “did”. LSU did beat MSU.

I think Bama is the better team, mainly due to the huge advantage on both lines, but I don’t think LSU should’ve lost is a convincing argument. It’s more accurate to say Bama and LSU both won their close calls because Cody and Jones are both really good and made big plays.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com

by Poseur on Nov 6, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I respectfully disagree

Regardless of who is on the field, there are times when one team clearly outplays the other, but for whatever reason, fails to win the game.

The only “argument” I was trying to make was that anything can happen on any given Saturday. That even though LSU hasn’t, at times, looked like a 7-1 team I’m still very nervous about this, and every game we play in. Because you just never know what can happen.

And I love how you say you don’t like should’ve and list reasons why one could argue that we should’ve lost to Tennessee. So maybe you should amend your argument to “I hate it when people say LSU should’ve lost”

by STLbama on Nov 6, 2009 5:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That was the point...

… I was pointing out in any close game one could point to how one “should have” lost. It’s the nature of a close game. I was mocking the same thing towards Bama, not saying that Bama should have lost to Tennessee. So, no, no amendment is necessary. Because, if you would scroll down in my post, I point out that perhaps a great player (Cody) made a great play. One can find a way why a team almost lost just about any game it won that wasn’t a blowout. It’s why “should’ve” is a totally worthless exercise. You can do invent a scenario in many games how the loser could’ve or should’ve won. The important thing is that they didn’t.

And, if you watched the MSU-LSU game, I don’t see how you can say MSU “clearly outplayed” LSU.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com

by Poseur on Nov 6, 2009 8:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough...

but I never said MSU outplayed LSU. I suppose you could infer that, but it’s not what I actually said. I said that there were examples out there where A team (insert any team you’d like here) outplayed another and… blah blah blah. So it’s not that I believe one team outplayed the other. What I firmly believe is that if you have 1st and goal from the 2 you “should” be able to put the ball in the endzone. No matter who the opponent is. MSU didn’t and I gave LSU’s defense credit for this.

And I have to disagree, again, that any close game can be argued to be a “should have” game. I’ll use the 2005 game as an example. As painful of a memory as that is, which was only compounded by the fact that it was my bachelor party night (although the alcohol and adult entertainment later most definitely helped to dull the pain) I don’t look at that game as a should have game for us. You simply had better athletes than us and outplayed us in the 2nd half and in overtime.

On the flip side… what about the bluegrass miracle. Is it really completely wrong to say Kentucky should have one that game???

by STLbama on Nov 6, 2009 9:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"Lucky in Kentucky"

My friends don’t call it the Bluegrass Miracle, we call it Lucky in Kentucky. Kentucky very well could have won that game, but I remember that LSU choked on a pretty decent lead in the fourth quarter. Had there been no lucky hail mary, LSU could have played the “should’ve” card because of the late collapse which put the Cats in front.

It never ends. I just really, really dislike hypotheticals when evaluating teams. It’s usually just an excuse to disregard what actually happened. LSU should not have needed a goalline stand to beat MSU, but the important thing is that the defense came through.

I do think the fact LSU won in a very close game over MSU is indicative of quality. Winning by blowout is always better, good teams win close games, great teams win by blowout. Looking at LSU’s results, it is apparent this is not a great team.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com

by Poseur on Nov 7, 2009 9:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a great and fair writeup of LSU

I think you nailed the strengths and weaknesses of this year’s team. What we’re all waiting to see is if the LSU offense has really improved since the Florida game, or if they just feasted on weak Auburn and Tulane defenses. That, to me, is the key question. If the offense has really made strides, it’ll be a close, tough game that can go either way. If the offense that played the Florida game reappears, it won’t be close. I’m obviously hoping for the former.

CHAD JONES! WOOOO!!!!

by The Bengal on Nov 6, 2009 11:13 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

agreed on the Key question

the homer in me thinks y’all have just been getting fat on piss poor teams. as for our O situation, it’s easy to say Bama is in the same boat, but i’d point out that the Bama O was able to move the ball very effectively against VT, UK, and Arky. Bama also had no issues getting first downs vs ol miss. but by week 7 and 8 with no bye week, the O started to stagnate. in my opinion the bye week couldn’t of came at a better time for Bama, and it’s safe to assume Bama’s o will return to at least the same form they were in vs VT, if not better (thanks to experience and lsu’s d not being nearly as good ad VT’s)

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

..
lsu’s d not being nearly as good ad VT’s

Not according to the NCAA.

At the end of the day

by Mikeno on Nov 6, 2009 2:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

well smartypants, i went and looked it up and

crap. guess you’re right. you wanna play it out on PlayStation network? i go the same username there as i do here.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 5:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I need one ticket...

I would rather buy it from one of you guys than some scalper.

by BigChief on Nov 6, 2009 11:16 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

24-20 Alabama

We will win but it will be very close. They are very good, and have the talent to beat anyone in the counrty. The reason they struggled earlier this year was because they hadn’t put together a complete performance. But they have absolutely crushed Auburn and Tulane their last two games. Now granted, that was Auburn and Tulane but LSU looked very legit in those games. And as stated above, they will probably give us their absolute best with everything that is on the line.

36-0

by Bamabrave4 on Nov 6, 2009 11:20 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

20 points for lsu?

i want some of whatever you’re smokin

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Marlboro Reds or the Ganja?

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Nov 6, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

cigarettes are bad, mmkay?

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And we're going to score 24? I want some too!

In all seriousness, though, that is about what the bookies are expecting. The over / under is 40 with about a 7 or an 8 point spread depending on your bookie. So, basically, they are expecting a 24-17 type game.

"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 6, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So

pretty much like last year.

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Nov 6, 2009 11:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I bet we score 24+ and keep them in single digits

the line has gotten closer because vegas has to account for action on both sides. the goal of a line is not the predict the exact final score and margin of victory, it is to entice equal amounts of action on both sides of the line, which in turn ensures the house wins 10%. when a line opens it’s basically closer to what the bookies feel will happen, as a line moves throughout a week, it does so to counter the action that has been placed on one side or the other. in this case, the line opened with us as 3 point favs in game of the year props back in May, it moved up to Bama by 10 last sunday, and has subsequently been “bet down” by corndog fans who think they’ll cover +10. the reality of the situation is that Bama was a legit 10 point fav before the week began and still is even after all these poor coonasses mortgaged their houses bayou sheds so they could jump on what they perceived to be a favorable line. I’ve got 20 on us to cover this weekend.

i'm not signin shit

by Captain_Oblivious on Nov 6, 2009 11:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

oh shit!

wrong username! lol…

i'm not signin shit

by Captain_Oblivious on Nov 6, 2009 11:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Great point...

…if you are so confident on a double-digit victory take the second mortgage out on the house and double up!

by Kenny483 on Nov 6, 2009 12:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

well i've already got a couple hundred on BAMA this year between national title props and season win total props

plus 20 on BAMA to cover this week. thats good enough for me.

howabout if you go ahead and start posting over on ATVS since you seem to be so convinced an LSU victory is eminent.

it is what it is...

by Captain_Obvious on Nov 6, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

credit markets are frozen.

plus i’m upsidedown by about 70 grr on this god forsaken money pit the wonderful place my wife and i call home.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

indeed

plus we got some top notch lemons and other assorted citrus fruits out here.

also i’m finally off 3rd shift starting this weekend, so i can actually have full, fun, gamedays now… i say it’s gettign time fo ra RBR greater phoenix area get together. UT chat or Miss st maybe? ( i have family shit for LSU and Barn)

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you, my friend, are on.

need anything from t-town?

Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.

by kleph on Nov 6, 2009 12:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you there this week?

anything cheap from the bookstore that is game specific, like a cartoon depicting Big Al beating the shit out of Mike the Tiger on a poster or t-shirt, or even a game program.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 1:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Man that shit ain't even funny...

"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman

by outsidethesidelines on Nov 6, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This is a hard game to call

LSU is so hard to get a read on and we’ve been hurt by a lackluster offense. As I usually do before games, I bet $20 on LSU +8. Just a superstition.

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Nov 6, 2009 11:33 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I forgive you.

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Nov 6, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

The bad thing was, I won when we played Tennessee and South Carolina and I was actually disappointed.

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Nov 6, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't worry ya'll...

I have it on good authority that Mark Ingram went to the Bermuda Triangle in the off week and came back with both our passing game and salutations from Amelia Earhart.

by Queen of the Universe on Nov 6, 2009 12:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

haha

Auburn fans are like slinkys... not really good for anything but they still bring a smile to your face when you push them down a flight of stairs.

by IHC800 on Nov 6, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Did

he run across the Atlantic or Fly?

Auburn fans are like slinkys... not really good for anything but they still bring a smile to your face when you push them down a flight of stairs.

by IHC800 on Nov 6, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

dunno... but since the triangle is in the atlantic and earhart disappeared in the pacific

he’s gonna have some serious frequent flier miles.

Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.

by kleph on Nov 6, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

she's been in that area

in hiding ever since the critic’s gave their reviews of her awful bio-pic.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 12:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no big loss...

beryl markham > amelia earhart

Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.

by kleph on Nov 6, 2009 12:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

so i had to check out whoever the hell beryl markham was

and noticed that ernest hemingway had this to say about her : She has written so well, and marvellously well, that I was completely ashamed of myself as a writer. I felt that I was simply a carpenter with words, picking up whatever was furnished on the job and nailing them together and sometimes making an okay pig pen. But this girl, who is to my knowledge very unpleasant and we might even say a high-grade bitch, can write rings around all of us who consider ourselves as writers … it really is a bloody wonderful book."

sounds cool

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and we might even say a high-grade bitch

I love Hemingway quotes like this one. He would not have liked the politically correct world in which we currently live.

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Nov 6, 2009 4:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

sure thing...

he circumnavigated the globe.

by Queen of the Universe on Nov 6, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Mark Ingram

put the Tropic of Cancer into remission.

I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR

by SugarBowl93 on Nov 6, 2009 2:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Henry Miller

brought the Tropic of Cancer to life.

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Nov 6, 2009 4:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

oh shit!

i fuckin love me some henry miller. i’m such a huge fan of his shit. i was a kinda homeless traveler wandering the country for a bit, i always had a miller book with me during that time. god damn, sexus nexus and plexus, both the tropics, and quite days in clichey make me want to quit my job and go bang chicks in foreign countries. and eat, good lord did that man know how to write about food. i haven’t read anything by him in years, i should probably go pick some up.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 4:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

for real

my all time favorite authors list probably looks like this : Henry Miller, Charles Bukowski, Chuck Pahlinuik, Daniel Quinn, Rhode Dahl, and Shell Silverstien. with a non fiction nod to Noam Chomsky and . and honorable mention for fiction would be vonnegut, brett easton ellis, and kinky friedman

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 4:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Great write-up OTS

More than fair analysis.

At the end of the day

by Mikeno on Nov 6, 2009 3:06 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

i hope

LSU is so demoralized from the beating Alabama puts on them that they don’t win another game.

Alabama 24, LSU 6

by Go Hide in the V-berth on Nov 6, 2009 3:45 PM CST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

kinda like last year?

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's my response to an LSU fan on Yahoo who believes LSU will score all over Bama

Here’s LSU’s offensive stats:
Rush Yards per game: 141.5 YPG, which is 73rd in the nation
Pass Yards per game: 183.8 YPG, which is 98th in the nation
Total YPG: 325.1 YPG which is 100th in the nation.
They average 26.4 PPG, the middle of the pack, but that average is against weak defensive teams (teams whose defenses ARE NOT in the top 50 in the nation, with the exception of Florida).

Now you’re putting that offense against an Alabama defense that only allows:
64.9 Rush YPG, 2nd in the nation
176 Passing YPG, 16th in the nation
240.9 Total YPG, 3rd in the nation.
11.4 PPG, 5th in the nation.

Just so I’m not showing bias to Bama:

Bama’s offensive stats:
217.6 Rush YPG, 14th in the nation
192.4 Passing YPG, 94th in the nation (UF is 93rd with 194.4 YPG)
410 Total YPG, 33rd in the nation
31.8 PPG, 26th in the nation (though most came through the first 5 games).

LSU’s defensive stats:
114.4 Rushing YPG, 29th in the nation
178.6 Passing YPG, 18th in the nation
293.0 Total YPG, 15th in the nation
12.1 PPG, 7th in the nation

Statistaclly, Bama has LSU beat in every category. However, both teams have stout defenses. Both defenses have produced 11 interceptions. Both offenses have turned it over about the same as well.

However, here’s the troubling stat for LSU: Their QB has been sacked 23 TIMES THROUGH 8 GAMES!!! That’s almost 3 sacks a game. Bama’s QB has been sacked only 8 times. Bama’s line, on both sides of the ball, is better than LSU’s and that is where LSU will lose this game. Jefferson struggled against a good Florida defense. A defense that is only slightly better than Alabama’s.

Yes, Florida struggled to move the ball on LSU’s defense, but eventually they wore down the defense with a better O-line and run game. That is where Alabama will have the advantage in the 4th quarter. LSU’s defense will have to win this one for LSU and the way to do that is by forcing McElroy into throwing picks, which he doesn’t do often, and then returning those picks for TDs. LSU’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball. LSUs O-line will have to play GREAT in order to win, which I don’t believe they can do against Bama’s front 7 and Bama’s secondary is among the best in the nation.

So, Dawgmeat, no LSU doesn’t rank in the bottom 20 in any category (barely). However, playing Tulane, an over rated Auburn team, and teams who’s defenses don’t rank in the top 50 nationally, helps anybody’s offensive stats.

However, when the total offensive output is ranked 100th (yes, 100TH!!) in the nation and your PPG average is against weaker defenses (LSU only got 3 on UF, which is only 6 YPG and 0.4 PPG better than Bama defensively), then you can see where LSU is going to lose this game. The offense stinks, in every phase. LSU’s only hope is to score defensive and special teams TDs. But the LSU defense will have to that against an offense that rarely turns the ball over, protects their QB, and can control the clock with a dominate run game.

Bama 24, LSU 14 (1 TD thanks to special teams play)

LSU’s offense will not win this game for them. It will Bama’s job to not let their defense win the game for LSU.

He bleeds Garnet and Gold, She bleeds Crimson and White. AND THEY BOTH HATE ORANGE! GO NOLES!! ROLL TIDE!!

by gonolesrolltide on Nov 6, 2009 4:01 PM CST reply actions   0 recs


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