byes, damn byes, and statistics

by Bama07 on Nov 6, 2009 2:37 PM CST Comment 15 comments

Total SEC opponents coming off bye weeks, 2007-2010
Alabama - 17
LSU - 5
Tennessee - 4
Florida - 4
Vanderbilt - 3
Georgia - 3
Auburn - 3
Kentucky - 2
Mississippi State - 1
Mississippi - 1
South Carolina - 0
Arkansas - 0

This means that out of our 32 scheduled SEC games from 2007-2010 (the four most recent years with schedules) Alabama has to face an opponent coming off a bye week over 50% of the time! Meanwhile, no other SEC team has to face more than 5.

If that isn't shocking enough, take a look at this statistic: if bye weeks were truly assigned at random, there would be a less than 1 in 10 sextillion (10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) chance of Alabama facing 17 or more SEC opponents coming off bye weeks (that's calculated by obtaining a z-score and a corresponding p-value, for all you math nerds.) How much is a sextillion? According to wikipedia, there are approximately one sextillion grains of sand on all of the beaches all over the earth combined. That means the odds of this happening to us randomly are about the same as you winning a lottery in which you randomly pick up a grain of sand somewhere in the world and then roll two dice, and to win this lottery you must have picked up the one particular grain of sand that happens to be the first one ever created AND also have rolled precisely an 11 with your dice.

Now, I'm not throwing this out there to claim conspiracy or anything like that, just to point out that there is something going on here that needs to be addressed following this season before any more future SEC schedules are finalized.

Luckily for us this weekend we get to experience the flip side of this issue for once. Hopefully our extra week of rest and preparation will give us a much needed boost as we attempt to clinch a spot in Atlanta. Roll Tide.

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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Over half coming off the bye?

8 games per season x 4 seasons = 32 games

Ouch.

by mqatrombone on Nov 6, 2009 2:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I noticed this last year, but

It’s very interesting to see that it is a trend that has been around for longer than that.

by atcrawford on Nov 6, 2009 2:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

breakdown of byes, 2007-2010

2010
Alabama LSU
Arkansas (TBA)
Auburn Alabama
Florida Georgia
Georgia Georgia Tech
Kentucky (TBA)
LSU Alabama
Mississippi Alabama
Mississippi State Alabama
South Carolina Alabama
Tennessee Alabama
Vanderbilt Connecticut
2009
Alabama LSU
Arkansas Georgia
Auburn Alabama
Florida LSU
Georgia Florida
Kentucky Louisville
LSU Auburn
Mississippi SE Louisiana
Mississippi State Alabama
South Carolina Clemson
Tennessee Alabama
Vanderbilt N/A
2008
Alabama Mississippi, Auburn
Arkansas Alabama, Mississippi State
Auburn West Virginia, Alabama
Florida Tennessee, Kentucky
Georgia Tennessee, Georgia Tech
Kentucky Western Kentucky, Tennessee
LSU North Texas, Florida
Mississippi Alabama, UL-Monroe
Mississippi State Vanderbilt, Alabama
South Carolina Tennessee, Clemson
Tennessee UAB, Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt Auburn, Florida
2007
Alabama LSU
Arkansas Alabama
Auburn Alabama
Florida Kentucky
Georgia Florida
Kentucky Vanderbilt
LSU Alabama
Mississippi LSU
Mississippi State Alabama
South Carolina Clemson
Tennessee Georgia
Vanderbilt Eastern Michigan

by Bama07 on Nov 6, 2009 2:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

omg

next year looks brutal w 6 SIX, siete, 6, one two three four five SIX fucking SEC games where the opponent is coming off a bye. jesus thats not fair.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Nov 6, 2009 5:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You should look at the stats for open weekends and non-conference games, because the SEC has no control over when those are scheduled. It just so happens that a lot of other teams do not want to face Alabama without two weeks to prepare, so they don’t schedule non-conference games that weekend.

Nothing we (or the SEC) can really do about that.

I'm wrong all the time.

by PeteHoliday on Nov 6, 2009 3:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Great post.

It doesn’t seem fair, but as Pete said, a lot of teams don’t want to face us without two week’s prep time, and that’s really a badge of honor. For 22 (is it?) consecutive games (not counting the post season b/c everybody gets the same prep time for that relatively speaking) we’ve handed it back to them despite their extra prep. That just makes us awesomer, right?

I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR

by SugarBowl93 on Nov 6, 2009 6:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

i agree completely.

Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.

by kleph on Nov 11, 2009 1:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW...rec'd.

I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR

by SugarBowl93 on Nov 6, 2009 6:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

IT'S A CONSPIRACY!!11!!

by jsholt969 on Nov 6, 2009 6:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

but seriously...

that really does stink.

by jsholt969 on Nov 6, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

a further look...

I’ll break it down purely by SEC games (i.e. how many open slots does the SEC schedule leave each team before playing each opponent) and post later this weekend. Too busy today with that mildly important game going on in Tuscaloosa. Of course when I say open slots I mean weeks the SEC doesn’t schedule you a game and for which you can then either fill it with a non-conference game or leave it open for a bye. I realize that individual ADs have final say over which week is ultimately a bye week because they can essentially choose which non-SEC open slots to leave as a bye week. Again, I’m not calling it a conspiracy, just an alarming statistic that should be addressed to whatever degree and in whatever way that is possible.

by Bama07 on Nov 7, 2009 11:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

There is no chance it's random

Someone has got to be listening to the head coach’s requests. Ga has had a bye week before our gam ethe last two+ years. We have a bye week before our big games (recently LSU and in the recent past GA). When was this ‘random’ thing implemented?

by 1974gator on Nov 8, 2009 12:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs