Top 5 Keys to Victory Over Texas: #1

by TopDaddy on Dec 16, 2009 10:31 AM CST Comment 26 comments

Over the next few days, time permitting, I will attempt to point out and analyse the 5 main keys (as I see them) to winning the BCS Championship. Some may seem obvious, but hopefully some of you will be enlightened.

#1: Take Advantage of Turnovers

Now, this key alludes to the fact that Texas WILL turn the ball over, and that assumption is a statistically valid one. Simply taking a look at McCoy's susceptibility to turning the ball over, you would find the following:

McCoy has been the starting UT quarterback for Texas' last 51 games. In those 51 games, he has turned the ball over (either by throwing an interception or fumbling) a total of 56 times. That's right, 56. And this was not simply a case of Freshman fumblitis or Sophomore Slump (although that was his worst year); his uncanny ability to cough up the football has been fairly even. In his Freshman year - 9 T.O.s, Sophomore - 21, Junior - 10, and thus far in his Senior year - 16.

Also of note is the fact that in his 51 games, he has only 14 games where he has not been responsible for any turnovers; and this includes only 3 games this year where he has not recorded a turnover. These three teams that could not force McCoy to turn the ball over included: Texas A&M (107th in defense nationally), Baylor (95th), and Oklahoma State (33rd). The two best defenses that UT faced were Nebraska (8th in defense nationally) and Oklahoma (7th). Both of these teams forced 3 McCoy turnovers in each of their respective games.

So with Texas (namely McCoy) turning the ball over with such regularity, how have they remained so successful over the past 4 years? DEFENSE! Just because the Horns (again, namely McCoy) have been T.O. prone does not necessarily mean they have lost the turnover battle. Against Nebraska, UT's defense forced 3 Nebraska turnovers of their own, while in the Oklahoma game, they forced 5 Sooner turnovers. Teams have not been very successful in converting UT's mishaps into points. Nebraska was able to convert UT's three turnovers into 9 points, but that's not going to get it done most of the time.

So all of this is to say that statistically it's not a matter of "if" we can force McCoy to turn the ball over, but "when". And "when" that/those turnover(s) come, if we can make them hurt. Bama will need to get some hits on McCoy, and force him to think a little quicker; thus forcing him to make bad decisions. Also, McCoy does not seem to let his turnovers affect his play for the rest of the game. He does not get flustered, and likely will not lose confidence if he gives the ball away; so the key is not to get into his head, but to simply convert his mistakes into points each and every time we get the opportunity.

Comments welcome, and ROLL TIDE!

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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The majority of the turnovers were tipped passes

So the key to getting McCoy to turn the ball over is to get the receivers to tip it for the pick. In other words, get your volleyball coach out to Austin ASAP.

by burntorangehorn on Dec 16, 2009 11:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ok, sorry...

I’ll fix my post to read:

Actually McCoy is hardly ever at fault for the INTs that are credited to his stat sheet. Come to find out, Texas’ WR’s have sucked so bad over the past 4 years, they can neither defend a bad pass nor simply catch a well thrown pass well enough that many of McCoy’s passes are tipped up; some of which lead to an interception. Again, I cannot emphasize enough, most of McCoy’s INTs are not his fault.

That better?

Regardless of how many people touch the pass before it’s intercepted, the fact still remains: on average, McCoy is good for at least a turnover per game.

"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant

by TopDaddy on Dec 16, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you overshot it a bit, but sure

I just wanted to point out that Colt is rarely off-target, and that the majority of his picks have been tips. There was a compilation of all of his picks the past two seasons on YouTube, and I’ll see if I can find it.

by burntorangehorn on Dec 16, 2009 12:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

that wasn't the case for his three picks in the Big 12 CG...

"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban

by bammer on Dec 16, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just one of them, IIRC?

by burntorangehorn on Dec 16, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ill agree that last one

wasn’t his fault..just a great play by the CB.

"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban

by bammer on Dec 16, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to admit I didn't watch that game super-closely

I was engaging in a debaucherous party at the time, so I would periodically disappear up to the master bedroom, assuming no one was busy there, and flip on the TV to see what was happening. Probably only caught about 35-40 of the 60 actual clock minutes.

Bloody hell, I hate the eastern time zone!

by burntorangehorn on Dec 16, 2009 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

On the Big 12 CCG picks...

The 1st one was tipped, the second one was a “regular” INT, and the 3rd one was just one great play by CB.

Regardless, they were INTs nonetheless.

Get off your knees Greg, you're blowin' the game.

by kriess on Dec 16, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We happen to have some CBs who can make some great plays too

by billycthulhu on Dec 16, 2009 5:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How about TOs on our side?

Obviously we don’t want them, but what are the chances? I know we very rarely turn the ball over, but as you said, Texas can be very good at forcing them.

by billycthulhu on Dec 16, 2009 4:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Bama has 10 turnovers on the season (4 INTs, 6 fumbles); including our 4 turnover performance against USCe.

To put it into perspective; Oklahoma had 24 turnovers on the year, while Nebraska had 23 turnovers (over a third of which came in one game against Iowa State). So Texas didn’t exactly force turnovers against teams that weren’t used to coughing it up anyway; they just helped these teams to continue the inevitable.

"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant

by TopDaddy on Dec 16, 2009 6:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say that

the reason McCoys passes get tipped may have something to do with the way he throws it. Not saying I know what that might be…too hard, no tragectory, behind receivers etc.

BUT if you throw 16 picks you are doing something wrong.

I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.

by 5026 on Dec 16, 2009 4:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly...

A tendency is a tendency not matter how it comes about.

But keep in mind that all these turnovers are not just from INTs. He’s also very prone to fumbling the ball on a sack. Based on the limited video I’ve seen of him, he seems to hold the ball very loosely while making his reads.

"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant

by TopDaddy on Dec 16, 2009 5:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And Mark Ingram has.....

ONE turnover in his whole career.

by JMusso22 on Dec 17, 2009 8:08 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Mark Ingram = Non Factor

If damage is to be done to the Texas defense through the run game, it will be done by Mr. Richardson.

by thestos on Dec 17, 2009 12:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I can see that as a possibility...

but I wouldn’t go ahead and label him “non factor”. With a month to prepare, I’m sure the Bama O coaches are tired of Ingram spies. An adjustment will be made where UT cannot afford to dedicate one or more players JUST to Ingram. Now execution of that adjustment is the key, but think about how easy it would be to make UT stop spying:

Bama lines up in a single back set with Ingram and any various LB(s) spying him all the way. At the snap, Ingram takes himself completely out of the play (albeit very subtly) by running way out in the flat. The LB(s) follow his every move, and in this case have taken themselves completely out of the play as well, leaving a huge gap 5 yards out for an H-back to fill and catch a relatively easy 5 yard pass. After a while, the spy will have to go back on assignment, thus opening up the running game once again for Ingram.

Now, I realize this is a great theory on paper, and it’s a simplistic plan from my simplistic brain, but it would seem that if you threw some blocking assignments and misdirection into this base plan, the spies would go away.

That’s my theory, anyway…

"There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success" - Coach Bryant

by TopDaddy on Dec 17, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If our O line does their jobs

a RB spy won’t do Tejas any good anyway. If the linemen who are supposed to be getting to the second level do it, it won’t matter who is coming, a block will be thrown and a hole will be there. Defeating the spy plan is as much about line execution as it is about tricking the spy. Do both, and it’ll be a non-factor. The reason the Aubies were so successful IMO is that the line wasn’t getting any push whatsoever, for some reason, and with the spy on Ingram, there was nothing he could do. They took the spy off of Trent, and he was able to break a few runs. I could definitely be wrong, so I’ll leave the rest up to more Xs and Os minded people, but if the our line gets the push it should (and usually does), Ingram should be a factor in the game.

"Let's go be champions, boys!" - Greg McElroy

by SugarBowl93 on Dec 17, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The push in this game should be interesting

Our D-line is head and shoulders better than Aubs so I am interested to see if they can get off the front four and get some depth blocking our backers….We would be absolutely foolish not to spy Ingram and let him beat us, when we know he the the best player. If it starts hurting us then get out of it, but at least give it a shot to start the game

by tx41usc38 on Dec 17, 2009 5:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Saban use a two back formation against Fla to combat the spy?

If they put a LB spy on Ingram. Seems Saban will counter by putting Roy in as the up back. Give him the ball and the spy’s out of the play. IMO

Your temper brings dishonor to my happy mooshu palace.

by mulletover on Dec 18, 2009 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

indeed he did

we came out with Roy and Mark in the backfield together on our first drive.

for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph

by tempebamafan on Dec 18, 2009 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

indeed your D line should be better than aubies D line

but what about florida’s? south carolina’s? ol miss? virginia tech? hell even kentucky has a decent front 7.

texas’s downfall will be there lack of experience in big games against good teams. they only played 2 top 20 teams all season long and no elite teams. i’d say bama played 2 elite teams (vt and florida )and a handful of others that are at least equal to OU and Neb. (arky, UK, SC, Ol Miss, UT, LSU, Barn)

for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph

by tempebamafan on Dec 18, 2009 2:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

These guys are used to a big stage

It was only last year that this team comprised of mostly the same guys played in a HUGE Tx/Ou game and a fiesta bowl against tOSU. Some were around for the NC of ‘05 and when you play for the University of Texas and every single team is out to beat you year in and year out you are plenty used to playing big games. Do not forget that Arkansas chickened out playing us this year, Ole Miss is an AWFUL team as is Auburn. Bama freaking lost to a not so elite team in a BCS game, they’ve got just the experience they need

by tx41usc38 on Dec 18, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Being the underdog is great, nothing to lose and everything to gain…..you guys are going to feel real dumb after bama loses when you all thought there was no way is was even going to be close. After all y’all are goliath and we’re just the measly little David

by tx41usc38 on Dec 18, 2009 4:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

are you serious?

You’re gonna base your argument on the fact that Texas beat OSU last year? The same OSU that is 0-9 vs the SEC? If we’re talking about last year, let’s talk about that ‘awful’ Ole Miss team that took Texas Tech out to the woodshed last year. The same Texas Tech that scored a whopping 39 points against your ‘superior’ Big XII D in the game that ruined Texas’ season last year. Us “real dumb” bama fans aren’t the ones counting our chickens before they hatch.

I just hate Tennessee...I can't stress that enough.

by rammerjammer7 on Dec 18, 2009 4:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

TopDaddy

I appreciate your commentary, very well put.

To be honest, I don’t know much about your OC, but if he is anything like Greg Davsi (our OC) then he won’t implement those great ideas for beating a high level opponent.

He’ll go conservative and hope that talent takes him all the way. I’m just saying that is what Texas would do, I’m not advocating it. Here’s to hoping both offenses open it up AND the defenses play great.

by thestos on Dec 17, 2009 10:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

are you sure you dont know much about Jim McElwane?

because he’s most likely going to have the exact game plan you described. nothing new for this game, just a mix n match of stuff we’ve done so far this year that he thinks will work vs texas. i’m guessing a few snaps from pistol, probably a lot more from wildcat than we used vs Fla, and if we’re having trouble runing, you can expect to see Roy Upchurch out there accompanying either Ingram or Richardson for a two back set that we’ll use to re-establish the run.

for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph

by tempebamafan on Dec 18, 2009 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs