Bama Basketball Bracketology

ed.- bumped from the fanposts.

Yeah, yeah, I know. The biggest Bama football game in at least 17 years is coming up. We just won the SEC championship and our first ever Heisman. I get it. I was there in Atlanta, I'll be there in Pasadena, and--before you accuse me of taking focus off of Bama football--I was even there outside the Nokia Theatre in New York City when Ingram won the trophy. So don't even go there. Besides, as much as we're all looking forward to the big game in California, it is still three long weeks away.

In the meantime, especially given the big game coming up in Mobile on Saturday, I'd like to bring everyone's attention to what's going on with Bama basketball and start to objectively analyze what we've done so far and what we need to do in order to accomplish what I'm pretty sure everyone would agree is our ultimate goal this season: a return to the Big Dance.  As we all know, Coach Grant is working hard to revive the program by instilling more discipline and intensity on the court, and through our ups and downs so far this season, I think he's been pretty successful in that regard. It's yet to be determined though if Grant can turn things around quickly enough for us to be on everyone's office pool bracket come March, and most reasonable Bama fans aren't expecting him to, but man would it be nice...

Now, as far as what we need to do to make the tournament, I've created a tournament resume chart if you will, which I'll simply call Bama Bball Bracketology.  As you can see, it's pretty simple to figure out, but I'll clarify a few things that might be confusing. Obviously, teams we have beaten go in the left column (in order of strength), teams we have lost to go in the right column (in order of weakness), and teams we have yet to play remain in the center column (in order of play). As for the rankings, I'm using two different systems. The first is based off ESPN's latest bracketology, and the teams that they have projected to be in the Dance (as at-large teams) are highlighted in bold with their projected seed (note: not their overall ranking) indicated in parentheses. I do this because it shows how we have fared against teams that the selection committee will likely see as the strongest. The selection committee doesn't care about the AP or the coaches poll, so they are completely irrelevant in college basketball. The second is simply the latest RPI ranking, which I have used to give us an idea of where the teams not projected in the tournament stand. As you may already know, the RPI is the only ranking system used by the selection committee.  Please note however that the RPI rankings will not really take shape until late January due to the small sample size we are working with this early in the season, so many of these RPI rankings will change drastically.

Bama Basketball Bracketology

As you can see, we're currently 7-3. The good news is that all three of our losses have come to projected tournament teams. (And no, Cornell is not just projected as a tournament team due to the automatic bid they are expected to receive as Ivy League champs. They are projected as an 11 seed, essentially meaning ESPN thinks they are strong enough to be an at-large team.)  The bad news of course, is that none of our seven wins have come against projected tournament teams. Three of those wins were against major conference teams though, so expect the RPI rankings of Baylor, Providence, and Michigan to end up much higher once they start facing their conference opponents, even if they don't win many of those games.

So, given this early resume, what do we need to do moving forward to punch our ticket to the Dance? I plan to update the Bama Bball Bracketology again once the nonconference games are over, so I will answer that question for now by looking at what we need to do in our remaining four nonconference games which will wrap up the pre-conference schedule just in time for the big game in Pasadena.

Obviously, our next game Saturday against Kansas State is huge for our tournament resume. As big as the Purdue game was. Maybe even bigger now that we blew our opportunity in that Purdue game. If you've read this far, you obviously have at least some interest in Bama hoops, so if you live anywhere near Mobile there is no reason not to show up with Bama gear on and make sure that this "neutral" game is anything but. And no, the UCF-Rutgers bowl game is not a reason. And yes, you should feel silly for asking.

How big would a win against projected top-4-seed Kansas State be? Big enough that it would immediately bring our nonconference resume up to the level a typical bubble team or better. A win in that game, followed by closing out strong against the remaining three midmajors on our schedule, would put us at 11-3 and in a strong enough position where any winning record in the much-improved SEC would likely get us at the very least on the bubble.  A loss in this game wouldn't necessarily hurt our resume, as it would basically just solidify the pattern we currently have of beating non-tourney teams and losing to tourney teams.  However we would lose our last opportunity to get a real quality nonconference win to boost our resume.

A loss against Kansas State followed by holding serve against the three midmajors would put us at 10-4 to close out the nonconference slate, a good record given our SOS ranking but void of any real quality wins (unless Michigan can turn it back around--fingers crossed).  This resume would put us in position to go dancing should we finish the SEC slate with a 10-6 type record or better, so this wouldn't be a terrible position to be in but it would definitely require us to be on top of our game come January and February.  Finishing up the nonconference slate up in Toledo on January 4 with anything less than a 10-4 record will leave us needing to set the woods on fire in the SEC, something I'm not sure we can do this year given our depth concerns and growing pains under a new regime.

In short, the game in Mobile on Saturday is of immense importance, and win or lose there, it is equally important that we close out those final three games of the nonconference slate over the holidays with three wins. If we can do one or the other, or better yet both, my next Bama Bball Bracketology post should be very interesting reading for Bama fans. 

March Madness is 91 days away....Roll Tide!

One last thing: I don't live anywhere near Tuscaloosa, but for those of you who do, there is no excuse not to fill up Coleman for each and every SEC game. The team always deserves our support, but check out the credentials of our complete home SEC slate:

Vanderbilt - Jan 13 - projected tournament team (11 seed)
Tennessee - Jan 19 - projected tournament team (2 seed)
Mississippi State - Jan 23 - projected tournament team (8 seed)
LSU - Jan 27 - top 50 RPI team, defending SEC champs
Florida - Feb 4 - projected tournament team (3 seed)
Arkansas - Feb 13 - ok, they suck so far, but maybe Cage's last chance for PT
Ole Miss - Feb 27 - projected tournament team (4 seed)
Auburn - Mar 6 - do you really need a reason?...just in case: Iron Bowl trophy presentation