I think that he probably stays at the end of the year. I know the FSU job is probably appealing to him — and he might leave for it, in all fairness — but my thought is that if he wouldn’t leave to go back to Athens, he probably wouldn’t leave to go back to Tallahassee either.

My thinking is that he will eventually get a head coaching job somewhere, and he is probably holding out for that. He’s too good to just be a defensive coordinator somewhere, and I really don’t know if he’s overwhelmingly interested in getting another DC job just to escape Saban’s shadow like Steele did. I imagine he holds out for a head coaching job and gets it in the next year or two.

Either way, it’s clear that he is on borrowed time in Tuscaloosa.

if be very caustious of FSU. Its not a given that Fisher is going to turn things around. IF he indeed is looking for a HC position, then staying at bama is his best bet. No rebuilding, great mentor and will continue to build one hell of a resume.

Leaving for FSU could spell doom for his chances to one day get good HC position.

…is probably the closest corollary to Kirby Smart that I can think of. He stayed and learned under one of the most innovative offensive minds the SEC has ever seen, and was given an opportunity to take a BCS head coaching job. Most people thought it was Urban Meyer’s offense, but people who knew football knew what Mullen did and how influential he was. There are also people like Will Muschamp, who despite coaching under defensive head coaches (Tuberville and Saban) could have had gone to any number of good head coaching jobs. He of course chose to stay as defensive coordinator and head coach in-waiting at Texas.

As far as public perception you may be right that going somewhere, if he can be as successful, might give him a slightly higher profile. Of course, with that said Smart is already one of the hottest named coordinators out there and a finalist for coordinator of the year this year. I think he has done a really good job of proving just how good he is. Also, most of the time when an AD is looking to hiring a coach they are relying on advice from other coaches, and Smart is definitely well thought of in coaching circles.

The other problem with potentially going to another school is that often it takes a few years to turn around the problems. The coach usually needs to get more of his players in the program. The old players often ran a different scheme, so they have to be developed.

Another good example that someone mentioned earlier was Jimbo Fisher. Jimbo Fisher is a great coach, and it has taken him nearly three years to get the offense to where it is at an elite level, when healthy at FSU. It took Nick Saban and his defensive staff two years to get it running at a high level at Alabama.

Even if your generous and assume that Kirby Smart is able to get a defense turned around in two years, would he not be better staying at Alabama and maintaining the high level of play that he has established? Either way, Smart is on the fast track, and will probably not be at Alabama too long, one way or another.