What will it take to pull off the upset?
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 8:53 AM CST
in Football
88 comments
On Friday during game weeks I generally post a preview of the upcoming game, but I've decided against that this week. Both Alabama and Florida are already well known commodities, and in general everyone is aware of the key players, so I see little need in recapping something that most already knew in the first place.
Instead, I want to take a look at the things that we must do in order to pull off the upset. Florida knocked us off a year ago in Atlanta, and despite another 12-0 start by the Tide, the general consensus is that the Gators will send us to New Orleans once again. And unfortunately, I'm afraid to say that the general consensus is indeed probably the correct one. We're fighting an uphill battle here, and victory will not come easy for the Tide. Let's look at some key things the Tide must do in order to pull the upset.
Avoid the slow start. Sluggish performances early have plagued the Tide all year, and truthfully did for much of the second half of last season as well. That continued last week against Auburn as we found ourselves down 14-0 before we could even blink. Likewise, we got off to a slow start last year against Florida. We received the ball on the opening kick-off, went three and out, punted, and Florida marched right down the field for a touchdown. Simply put, we cannot afford another slow start this year against the Gators. We don't necessarily need a blitzkrieg from the beginning -- like the Blackout two years ago -- but we cannot get ourselves in a hole early and still expect to overcome that and get the victory over a team like Florida.
Win the field position battle. Offensively Florida is still a juggernaut, and giving this offense a short field is almost guaranteeing a touchdown. Last year, for example, the combined average starting field position of Florida's four touchdowns was past their 40-yard line. Likewise, Florida is very good defensively and any offense consistently forced to drive 60+ yards against them to get points is likely to be very limited in point production. Given that, we must win the field position battle in this game.
Limit the big play from Florida offensively. You heard all that talk about how Florida cannot generate the big play? Don't buy the hype. They might not be producing them at the prolific clip that they were last year, but this is still a big play offense. Riley Cooper had a 51-yard reception against 'Bama last year, and has had four catches of 35+ yards in 2009 (not to mention averaging over 17 yards per reception). Aaron Hernandez and Deonte Thompson both have big play ability. Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey both average over 7 yards per carry, and have had several 40+ yard runs this year. Again, they aren't producing the big plays at the prolific clip they were last year, but don't interpret that to mean that they haven't generated big plays. They can still strike you at any time, and we must limit big plays for the Gators.
Get off the field defensively on third down. Last year, in many ways, the difference in the game was the ability of Florida to convert on critical third downs. And once again the Gators bring that reputation to Atlanta... they are one of the top teams in the country in third down conversion percentage. Simply put, we must get them off the field when we have the opportunity. A breakdown defensively on third down gives them new life, which with an offense of this caliber will more likely than not result in points.
Stop the dive play and control the interior run by Tebow. For all of the talk of speed and spreading the field, Florida relies heavily on the inside running game on the halfback dive and the draws by Tebow. It is of the utmost importance that our defensive line can stop this on their own. If they can shut down Florida in this capacity, that allows the linebackers to play sideline-to-sideline, and it allows the safeties to stay back and limit big plays. If you cannot do it in the trenches, however, linebackers and safeties have to come up to stop the run and that is what really allows all of the elements of their spread game to expose you.
Establish a consistent pass rush with the defensive line. Blitz packages can be great, but against a spread team -- one that will always have checkdowns to high end players at their disposal -- led by a senior quarterback they can be of limited effectiveness. If you have to rely heavily on them in order to rush the passer, much like we did last year, it will many times be ultimately futile because you get picked apart on the back end. And to that end, we have to be able to rush the passer with the defensive line. Florida is young at the tackle position (one of their few weaknesses), and we must take advantage of that. Along with controlling Florida's interior running game, our defensive line needs to get to Tebow. Simply put, they need to play the game of their lives.
Greg McElroy must be a game changer. Remember earlier in the year when we were saying that McElroy had transcended the game manager label and had turn himself into a legitimate game changer? Well, that hasn't been true in the past two months, and McElroy hasn't played particularly well since the Arkansas game. He has been checkdown happy, hasn't been able to throw the football vertically, has missed key throws, and has made a lot of poor decisions. That is acceptable enough against teams like Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Auburn, but that all must change on Saturday if we are to win. McElroy will have to be able to throw the football vertically, and will have to eliminate dumb mistakes, especially turnovers. There is simply no two ways about this one... if McElroy plays at the game manager level, we'll need an almost perfect performance by the rest of the team in order to win, and that is simply not feasible against a team like Florida.
Offensive line must get the job done in pass protection. Lost in the very low Adjusted Sack Rate that the Tide's offensive line has posted this year is the fact that our offense almost never throws the football vertically, and thus the ball generally comes out quickly on three and five step drops. That makes the offensive line's life very easy, but against Florida they will probably not get any such luxury. We'll have to throw the football vertically and in turn they will have to protect on long drops. And don't think the suspension of Carlos Dunlap is going to dramatically change things. Florida still has a ton of talent coming off the edge, and remember last year that the Gators clinched victory not with Dunlap, but with a key sack from Jermaine Cunningham.
Run the football relatively well. Injuries are really limiting our running game right now with Mark Ingram, Mike Johnson, and James Carpenter all being slowed by some ailment or another, but they must overcome that this week and still play at a high level. Florida has a great run defense in their own right, and as a result we aren't just going to run over this team. Much worse run defenses than Florida have been able to shut down our running game (see Arkansas and Auburn), and we cannot allow that to happen in Atlanta. Again, we aren't going to be able to run it down Florida's throat regardless, but we do need to be able run the football relatively well (and do it on a consistent basis).
The wide receiver corps must make plays on the outside. Julio Jones had a big game last year in Atlanta, and he will need another one this year. Likewise, Darius Hanks and Marquis Maze -- both of which had big catches in the Georgia Dome in the season opener against Virginia Tech -- will need to use the fast track of the Dome to their advantage once again. We haven't been able to get the football to our receivers consistently all year long, and that must change tomorrow.
Kick and punt return defense must hold up. It's going to be tough enough to control the Florida offense and move the football on the Florida defense as it is, but it's going to create an almost impossible task if we have one major breakdown in either kick or punt coverage. Brandon James is as good as any returner in the country, and we cannot afford to give Florida a cheap score in the return. Again, given how difficult of a task we face in the first place, giving up a cheap score on special teams will likely be the death knell for us.
All in all, simply put, we need to play at a very high level. We need to play our best game of the year in order to win on Saturday, and anything short of that will likely result in defeat. We cannot afford to play like we did against Virginia Tech. Or Kentucky. Or South Carolina. Or Ole Miss. Or Tennessee. Or LSU. Or Mississippi State. Or Auburn. We're going to have to take our game to another level if we truly expect to beat Florida.
In short, what we really need is perfection. Of course, a football game (not counting kicks) usually consists of 120-130 snaps, and that's just entirely too many snaps to not expect some breakdowns, particularly against a team of Florida's caliber. Thus, as with most things, perfection is an elusive goal in football, and it is one that we will not attain tomorrow. Nevertheless, the harsh reality is that we are going to have to come very close to that level if we are indeed going to knock of Florida. They are on the verge of a bona fide dynasty, they have one of the top three coaches in the country, they probably more talent and depth than any other team in the country, and they are led by a senior quarterback who will undoubtedly go down as one of the great college football players to ever live. A "good" performance will probably not bring down the mighty Gators, rest assured. We had a "good" performance last year and it was not enough. It likely won't be enough this year either. Perfection may be an unattainable goal, but Alabama will need to come almost as close as humanly possible in order to pull off the upset tomorrow night.
Hope for the best.
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Stop the dive play and control the interior run by Tebow
Cody will be a telling sign of our chances to win. If they get a push on him, it’s going to be impossible to put them into predictable playcall situations. But Tennessee and Arkansas gave them problems because Dan Williams and Malcom Sheppard held the line. LSU had some success against them also.
The field position will also be huge. I remember thinking that last year and wondering, “Can’t we pin these bastards back one time?” Our best drive was 91 yards. We had to kick field goals a couple times because we had to drive the lenghth of the field. We need to change that tomorrow.
And we need to get some turnovers. Let’s get some fumbles and an interception or two.
Aside from the stats, I think the more determined team will win tomorrow. If we have the ball last, we will win.
I’m reading a book. It’s called the 2009 SEC Championship . Saban is Captain Ahab. Tebow is the white Leviathan, the lone beast not even the Old Testament God could kill with his great flood. Call me Ishmael. Outsidethesidelines is Queequeg. Todd is Starbuck. Nico is Stubbs. Kleph is Melville. Tomorrow we will rewrite the ending or die a cold death at the ocean’s cellar!
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
by Bamagrad on Dec 4, 2009 9:29 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Re: Field Position
I also seem to remember Javi having an unusually bad day on returns as well. Let’s hope we don’t have a repeat of that.
The big problem...
…was his catching a kickoff that was going out of bounds and then going out of bounds with it and us getting the ball on the 2-3. Cost us 30+ yards in field position.
punt returns on UF are almost impossible
They get the ball high, don’t outkick coverage, and they put James et al at the gunner positions, so they’re down there before the ball is…
I don’t think Javy will do much damage there tomorrow, alas.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 4, 2009 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
they'll fuck up one two times.
their punter is not used to getting as much work as he will tomorrow….
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
Wait, why am I Starbuck?!
I’d be all about Ahab’s/Saban’s vengeful quest, there’s no way I’d oppose a good whale killin’!
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
you might not, but
he would
"Yeah, it's Tennessee, that's the way it is sometimes." - Corey Zickefoose, Pulitzer Prize winner and robbery victim
by Thomas Walker Esq on Dec 4, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions
so this is going to end with...
…you floating around the ocean clinging to a coffin. nice.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
Someone had to be left to tell the tale
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
I agree with everything you said.
One thing to add though, is that we have to beat them schematically, and here I truly feel as though we have a bit of an advantage. We make what I consider to be decent halftime adjustments, but by halftime, that might be too late, so we need to adjust early (by the end of the first quarter at least). I have to actually agree with Lane Kiffin, when he said Florida has better players (quality, talented depth being the major difference) and Alabama has the better coaches (the staff as a whole).
Perhaps that can mitigate a few things, but we will still need a near perfect game like you said. We need an early start, and a strong finish. And we have to outsmart them.
The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~
Kick return coverage
I think this is pretty vital, related to the field position battle you mentioned earlier. No holds/blocks in the back plz.
Really most of these are fairly obvious, but of course easier said than done. Mike Johnson’s injury (however badly it’s affecting him) will be another reason to have to stretch the field.
I'm not as willing to concede as much........
I believe that Florida will also have to play as close to a perfect game also. Though we have some weaknesses, ie: passes over the top for both offensive and defense, IMO the gators aren’t as strong as last years version. We match up to a man with them except for qb, but as much I as respect Tebow, he can get rattled and I think that is what CNS is going to attempt Saturday.
I will agree with you that a slow start WILL be a bad thing for us. I said going in the auburn game that the 1st quarter was the key. And I believe that in this game the key is 2 things.
1. How we start the game, we hold them and we score first.
2. How we finish, all you need to do is look at last years game,
and trust me CNS has many times over. We won’t repeat the
same mistakes twice.
FINISH, thats it.
I don't mind bad news, and I don't mind good news, but I can't stand surprises! Coach Nick Saban
by jtCRIMSON on Dec 4, 2009 10:22 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
Florida will also have to play as close to a perfect game also
For all of our ballyhooed struggles, the Gators have been in the exact same boat all season; missed opportunities, inability to stretch the field, redzone troubles. This is not last year’s UF squad, and while Hernandez is a weapon, they don’t have anyone near the calibre of Louis Murphy.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 4, 2009 11:06 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You're being too hard on the Tide
You can take all those elements you listed and insert “Florida” for Alabama and it will be just as accurate. Florida also has to play a near perfect game to win. Their offensive line has to play better than in any other game, or they will give up sacks to Dareus and Co. Against Miss St, Tebow was pressured consistently and threw 2 picks for TDs. Tebow has to be a game changer: everyone agrees that he will have to make the “Superman” plays to win the game. If he doesn’t and has a pedestrian effort – either b/c of Bama pressure or another reason- Florida is going to have a tough time winning the game.
Florida’s Defense has to play very well. If they don’t get pressure on McElroy, he WILL have time to find someone downfield. The CBs need to cover Julio, Hanks, AND Maze to avoid the big play. The line needs to control the line of scrimmage so that Ingram and Richardson don’t get a full head of steam. If they consistently reach the second level, game over. The Florida defense needs to monitor Roy Upchurch out of the backfield too. Watch for a few wrinkles in the Wildcat formation (such as the rare and elusive Ingram + Richardson permutation) to give the Florida defense pause.
Alabama’s defense was able to handle Florida for 3 quarters last year. This year’s team wants to, and looks to be able to, hold them for 4. That will be a key to this game. Alabama’s offense, for all the bellyaching about vertical passing, has consistently put up points this season. And about McElroy as game manager vs. Game Changer: We’d all like to see him hit some big plays. But from a strategic perspective, I’d love to see a gameplan that took full advantage of the “dink and dunk.” If Alabama’s defense can come out and limit Florida early, a game plan that involves 5-7 minute drives achieves what may be THE KEY to winning this game: Keeping Tebow off the field. If the offense avoids 3 and outs and keeps Superman from having a lot of snaps, Alabama will take a great step toward winning this game.
So I will disagree and say that “being perfect” is not what Alabama needs to do to win. As you admit yourself, that’s unattainable and frankly is nonsense. I suppose you are assuming that Florida is going to play up to its ability, but realistically that is not guaranteed. Alabama’s keys to victory, IMHO, are : defense that plays up to the standards it has set for itself, and offense that keeps Tebow off the field.
by Go Hide in the V-berth on Dec 4, 2009 10:35 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I do like the matchup
between our defense and their offense. Our defense has gone through a lot of work to be better against that type of offense since we last saw them. And they haven’t really faced a defense as good as ours all year.
But the flipside is true as well. Our offense has worked pretty well for us against most opponents, but I do think we are going to have to stretch the field vertically if we want to make a defense of their caliber give up anything against us.
by billycthulhu on Dec 4, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
yeah, what he said
"You have to create 6 seconds of hell each play..."
Coach Nick Saban
by LittleSis on Dec 4, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Really looking forward to it...
strictly as a CFB fan. As an LSU fan, and watching both of the teams play, I can honestly say this game is 50-50! How often can you say that about these kind of games? Usually one team is perceived to be clearly better; I think most people really believed that FLA was better last year. That’s what makes this just a great game. It’s an amazing match-up with perhaps the best Offensive and Defensive coach going head-to-head.
I don’t think AL needs to play “perfectly” any more than FLA does. Pardon my imitation of Captain Obvious, but I think that it comes down to Tebow. Can Saban put in a wrinkle to make him make just one critical mistake? A late turnover setting up a field goal?
Anyway, thanks for letting me stop by. I really love the site (especially the meltdowns=hilarious). Good luck to you guys, really looking forward to the game. It’s just unfortunate that you both can’t lose. :)
Slow Starts
I agree with outsidethelines for the most part, The slow starts are what has me the most puzzled. Has anyone ever heard Saban talk about why we cant seem to get going until sometime in the 2nd quarter? Anyone have any thoughts or comments?
Following Ole Miss last year, the big question was why we started so well, but couldn’t finish games strong. Saban made a couple of comments that week along the lines of maybe we were coming out too jacked up and couldn’t sustain for the full game. It’s possible that we made a strategic decision at the time to be more businesslike in our approach to the game. Maybe we swung a little too far towards that end of the spectrum.
My my what an inspiration this article is. Why even play it?
Guess the pollsters (esp. Tommy Hicks) are wrong and Bama isn’t deserving of their #2 ranking. Might as well sprinkle olive oil on our asses we’re Gator Bait!
-
The human factor is what I’ve not seen from anyone who’s dissected this game. Tennessee held Florida close. South Carolina nearly put them away. Arkansas came within a field goal from a BIG win in The Swamp. “On Paper” these three teams having less talent, depth and coaching than our beloved Tide. By all “Expert opinions” these inferiors should’ve been creamed into topinod.
Florida’s not a robot concoction made in the same labs that gave us Gatorade. They are HUMAN beings. One bad snap or one misread pass or a muffed punt away from having an L on the books.
Personaly I hate the comparison between Florida and unbeatable perfection. As for being the underdogs I kind of like that. The title keeps our players hungry. As far as having to play the perfect game to win, nah, we just have to play better than them and they are people and yes people make mistakes. Even Tim Tebow
Your temper brings dishonor to my happy mooshu palace.
i'm glad its played on the field........
and not in the blogs and press. because I agree with you, we wouldn’t stand a chance. We can win, and I believe that we will win, and NOT perfectly, just hard fought.
I don't mind bad news, and I don't mind good news, but I can't stand surprises! Coach Nick Saban
If you want a sense
of how close this game is by the numbers, check out Team Speed Kills’ analysis:
http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2009/12/4/1185354/sec-championship-game-score
Those numbers favor Florida, but my almost meaningless margins.
by Darby Up The Middle on Dec 4, 2009 10:55 AM CST reply actions
It is true
that we had trouble with the defenses of Auburn and Arkansas which weren’t very good this year to be frank. However Florida also had trouble with that same Arkansas defense. If I am not mistaken Arkansas and Vanderbilt both got 4 or 5 sacks on Tebow. If their defensive lines can get to Tebow ours can with Dareus, Deaderick, and Washington at end. I mean seriously Vanderbilt doesn’t have much high end talent and they got 5 sacks. lol Florida has a new right tackle and left tackle this year so I think we can take advantage of both sides and get to Tebow. It will be tough but we can beat this team. No team is unbeatable. Also I read somewhere that Saban is 13-1 in rematches with teams that beat him the first time.
This upcoming season I'm gonna refer to Julio Jones as "The Magic Man" and Trent Richardson as "El Diablo"
by AlabamaTitans2009 on Dec 4, 2009 11:59 AM CST reply actions
I
guess what I am trying to say is that teams with less talent than we have got a lot of pressure on Tebow so we should be able to get at least a little pressure on him with better players than Arkansas and Vanderbilt. I hope they put out a video of Saban motivating in the locker room before this game. You know it will be another “make his ass quit” moment. lol
This upcoming season I'm gonna refer to Julio Jones as "The Magic Man" and Trent Richardson as "El Diablo"
by AlabamaTitans2009 on Dec 4, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
Heard it......
Saban is 13-1 in rematches with teams that beat him the first time
from Jay Barker this morning on WJOX, and it is confirmed.
I don't mind bad news, and I don't mind good news, but I can't stand surprises! Coach Nick Saban
Thanks
for confirming. I couldn’t find the link to that info. The man just doesn’t stop until he gets revenge on someone who beats him. Roll Tide!
This upcoming season I'm gonna refer to Julio Jones as "The Magic Man" and Trent Richardson as "El Diablo"
by AlabamaTitans2009 on Dec 4, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
The 1 is.......
Steve Spurrier
I don't mind bad news, and I don't mind good news, but I can't stand surprises! Coach Nick Saban
Yeah
the only rematch Saban lost was to Spurrier and Florida in 2001 If I’m not mistaken.
This upcoming season I'm gonna refer to Julio Jones as "The Magic Man" and Trent Richardson as "El Diablo"
by AlabamaTitans2009 on Dec 4, 2009 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
Read that yesterday on ESPN
the only time Saban didn’t get revenge was against Spurrier’s Gators, in his first two seasons trying to rebuild the Who’s. Needless to say, the talent matchup is a bit more even this time around.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 4, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions
A question...
Has an SEC team ever lost the championship twice in a row? It would be terrible for Bama (the contemporary version) to be labeled as great program that could never win the big one. Remember the Buffalo Bills?
Then again, in its entire 105 year history Florida football has never had a team with an undefeated season.
I hope the team goes into this game tomorrow with that attitude of nothing to lose but everything to gain and play lights out, focused more on playing their best instead of not making mistakes. Maybe being cast as the underdog will be just what they needed.
no one gave us a chance in 99 either, and we'd already won @ florida that year.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
The difference that most seem to overlook
in these two teams is hunger. It might be cliche, but it is absolutely true.
Florida, to its credit, feels a sense of entitlement. They SHOULD win. They are GOING to win. It’s a foregone conclusion because they are, after all, Florida. They are looking for the satisfaction of padding their already amazing list of accomplishments. Now, don’t misunderstand. I don’t doubt Florida’s desire to win, or Tebow’s well-documented ability to seemingly singlehandedly will a victory out of a potential loss.
On the other hand, Alabama has something new. Something they’ve never had before, not even last year. Our profound struggles with confidence, most glaring under Shula, were still hanging around last year, as evidenced by us getting trounced by Utah. That wasn’t because Utah was a better team. It was because our confidence was destroyed. I think that last year’s team was undefeated because it was rare for anyone to come close to beating them. That’s a luxury when you don’t have to do a lot of coming from behind to pull out the win. In a close game to Florida, they let the 4th quarter get away from them.
Fast forward to Auburn. I don’t know that any other Alabama team in the last decade could’ve done what those guys did, which is, instead of immediately expecting to lose, simply buckling down, deciding what needed to be done, and then DOING it. Not because they were fighting for their lives…because they just knew they were NOT going to lose. It wasn’t an option.
They have a point to prove. They have a job left undone, and they have no intention of letting it end that way. These guys have, just like Tebow, willed themselves to win because the alternative is unacceptable. They echo that word ‘finish’ and to them it’s not just a media cliche or a hype tool. It’s their marching order.
Now, you can call this a bunch of sentimental bunk or blatant homer wishful thinking, and that’s fine. Maybe it is. However, my gut says this game is ours, and my heart is agreeing with me. That fourth quarter belongs to us, just like it has all season. No matter what, these guys aren’t going to let anyone take it from them…because THEY BELIEVE no one can.
Roll Tide.
by Peyton on Dec 4, 2009 12:32 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
yes,
You said it best. Roll Tide
"That's the process: Let's think about what we can do today, the task at hand."
-Coach Nick Saban
+1
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 4, 2009 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
I'm going to say I agree
almost totally with OTS. Which game has Alabama played this year, that if duplicated, would beat UF? NOT ONE GAME. The funny thing is that last year we did have a few games, that if duplicated could have beaten UF, notably UGA and Auburn.
So the real question is can Bama play to a level that have yet to play to this season? Logic, reason, statistics etc. would say no, a team can not just turn it on when they need to turn it on.
But sometimes outside factors can enter the equation. Breaks, luck, good guesses, injuries etc, can sometimes just go your way.
Thus I think Bama’s has two chances of winning.
One- Maybe Florida just messes it up big time. This is not likely considering the seniors on their team, but maybe this is the game Tebow chokes. And by the way, no one is choke proof.
Two- Luck. A tipped ball, a timely penalty, a 4th down that makes it by an inch, etc.
I know this sounds desperate to most. But when I step back and look at the players on both teams and look at the way both teams have played reason tells me UF is the better team. And logic says most of the time the better team wins.
BUT…not every time. Sometimes the underdog just has things go their way and they do pull of the upset. I’m hoping this is one of those rare times.
And, whomever wins this game should be able to beat Texas. So, to me this is for #1.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
I’m going to say I agree almost totally with OTS
no way…i don’t believe it.
blah blah blah – why are you seemingly always trying to convince us why we can’t win? i mean week after week, my GOD i am so tired…
if you are right (WHICH YOU ARE NOT), are you going to say i told you so?
and we don’t need to duplicate any damn game we’ve already played this season. we just need to show up and play the type of game that makes us all scream THIS IS ALABAMA FOOTBALL. we use that slogan for a reason, ya know?
"You have to create 6 seconds of hell each play..."
Coach Nick Saban
Yeah, seriously.
OTS/5026 watch too much CBS.
I'm not going to
say I told you so, and I do think we have chance to win.
I just think it is going to take some breaks for us or an implosion by UF. If UF plays to their capabilities I can see the game being very very tough to win for Bama or any one else.
That is not being negative on Bama, that is just a realization that yes Florida, right now, has the most talent in college football starting with their qb, whom I totally dislike and want to beat in the worse way.
And were all of you that thought we would blow Auburn out not horrifed at what happened in the 1st 3 qts? And, did you not have doubts we woud get it done on the last drive until we finally scored a TD in the red zone?
I mean lets be honest. We may love Alabama but that does not mean we have no concerns about playing a team like UF.
And by the way, I’ve got $250 on Bama in this game so I do think we can win.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
I think the Auburn game is anomalous as a comparison
Alabama was clearly looking past Auburn at Florida, Auburn had two weeks to prepare, and it showed with Auburn scoring on 3 big plays. Alabama has been preparing for this game against Florida since January.
So let’s cheer up. It is fine to be painfully aware of your own faults, but let’s not forget that Florida is imperfect as well. They have been just as bad in the redzone as Alabama. They are not so good that only an implosion will permit Alabama to win. Far from it.
Here’s some food for thought: Arkansas got pressure against Tebow, and he put the ball on the ground twice. Miss. State came after Tebow, and he threw two pick 6’s. Check out Chris Brown’s dissection of this over at Dr. Saturday (will be back in archives) if you want to see something that will cheer you up. Hell, Vandy sacked Tebow 5 times. Florida’s offensive line is not perfect. Tebow can be rattled. If Alabama’s defensive line plays up to its capabilities, you can expect some sacks or mistakes by Tebow.
by Go Hide in the V-berth on Dec 4, 2009 4:18 PM CST up reply actions
Valid points.
But how does Alabama look past Auburn?
Our D is perfect for stopping a conventional offense. But Tebow is an unconventional qb.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
Three things the Gators need to fear
The Auburn game revealed several things that the Gators need to be afraid of—and they all have to do with an Alabama offense that has evolved into an efficient long-touchdown-drive machine.
1. The short passing game to Julio Jones
In the Auburn game, McElroy was devastating at getting the ball to Julio in the 5-to-10 yard range. We lined Julio up in the slot, brought him across the middle, and if necessary used another receiver to pick the man who was covering Jones. Julio caught the ball, turned his large body and stretched across the first down line—it’s like tossing a basketball into a 7 foot center and watching him dunk. The passes to Jones are so quick that the Florida defender will need to be right on top of him to stop it. The Gators should be afraid they won’t be able to accomplish this. If they can’t, they’ll be as helpless as Auburn was.
2. Trent Richardson
Unless prevented by injury, Mark Ingram will bounce back in this game, show patience, and gain close to 100 yards. But even if he falls short, it will only mean that the #1 recruited tailback in the nation, Trent Richardson, will get more playing time. Richardson showed in the Auburn game that he is capable of picking up 5 to 10 yards every carry—and he can’t usually be stopped by a logjam at the line of scrimmage. The Gators’ D is better than Auburns’, but they can’t possibly pay any more attention to the run than Auburn did—and Auburn couldn’t stop Richardson from making the down and distance manageable.
3. The super low-risk, high-reward screen pass
One drawback to screen passes is that defenders who sniff them out can drop the running back for a loss. But Bama showed in the Auburn game that its screen pass is super-efficient. The Tide running back stays so close to the line that he can’t lose many yards, and McElroy has become flawless at shifting before he throws so that the pass is delivered in line (never a lob over a defender) and always in stride. The Tide’s screen blocking is great, and Ingram, Richardson, and Upchurch all have the ability to make the first man miss. The Tide’s ability to pop a 10-20 yard screen play could spell doom for the Gator’s attempts to stop the long drive, just as it did for the Tigers.
What these three under-feared Gator dangers add up to is an Alabama offense that has evolved potent and underappreciated skills. Auburn’s tricky, two-week-long preparations for the most important game of their season obscured the fact that Alabama dominated the Iron bowl after the first quarter. What the Iron Bowl really revealed is a Crimson Tide offense that is now frighteningly well equipped to eat up clock, drive the length of the field, and score touchdowns three our four times during the SECCG, keeping Tebow on the side lines and maintaining the readiness of the powerful Tide defense well into the fourth quarter.
When you combine these debilitating drives with the quick strikes that Bama can also make (for example, the long pass to Colin Peek in the Auburn game), and with Tiffin’s field goals, the Gators should fear an Alabama point total that could easily exceed 30 points.
The Gators should be afraid that they are just not up to the task of preventing this.
by hounds2th on Dec 4, 2009 3:39 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
It aint like they smoked us last year
We had their ass’s last year,but like Denny green said ‘’They were who we thought they were,and we let em off the hook’’.
Sounds like you're trying to lessen the blow if we lose . . .
. . . cause your assessment is not very balanced. Or perhaps you’re trying to encourage the Gators to be overconfident.
Whatever you’re doing, it ain’t balanced assessment. From the beginning, you speak of a “general consensus” about this game. That’s just hogwash. It’s true that Florida is favored, and perhaps rightly so, but there is no general consensus among experts. In fact, a quick run through the experts will find it fairly even:
2 out of the 5 rivals.com staff chose Bama.
4 out of the 5 CBS staff, including Spencer Tiilman, have picked Bama to win.
2 out of 6 at Sporting News pick Bama
2 out of 4 at Fox Sports pick Bama
That’s 10 out of 20. No general consensus for Bama. But, hey, if you’re some kind of double agent, working the perception to feed an overconfident Gator, then more power to ya.
by M. Johnson Defender on Dec 4, 2009 4:22 PM CST reply actions
The talking heads
like to pick upsets because it gets people talking etc. If they are right then they can brag about it. If they are wrong, they just forget it and move on.
I do put some stock in what Mark May says and I think he likes Bama to win ( I could be wrong about this.)
However, I’ll say this, OTS is about as good a football mind as you will find. And, he gives unbiased assements.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
OTS is an amazing football mind
who gives great objective analysis with a subjective nay-saying anti-homer tone. To each his own, but I think it’s hard to argue with that.
OTS is a great analyst . . .
. . . but his use of the terms “upset” and “general consensus” are utterly ridiculous in this context. There is no reasonable standard anywhere that would justify their use for this game.
by M. Johnson Defender on Dec 4, 2009 4:42 PM CST up reply actions
May be . . .
but there still ain’t no general consensus.
by M. Johnson Defender on Dec 4, 2009 4:31 PM CST up reply actions
i don't have a problem with OTS's assessments...
it’s his blog job.
but 5026, dude your posts just make me a little crazy. nothing personal, i’m sure you’re great and we could have a beer together but GEEZ they make me batshit sometimes.
"You have to create 6 seconds of hell each play..."
Coach Nick Saban
sorry...
i’m really not trying to be an ass – I AM JUST A LITTLE ON EDGE
CAN I HEAR AN AMEN?
"You have to create 6 seconds of hell each play..."
Coach Nick Saban
Man I am
not trying to rattle anyone’s cage. And I promise anything I say on here I’m saying to my friends, and yes I have friends.
It is just opinon, speculation, etc. Most people’s opinons, including mine are only right about half the time. But having opinons is half the fun of following sports.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
by 5026 on Dec 4, 2009 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 6:26 PM CST up reply actions
i totaly echo lilsis
but also i bet i speak for her when i say, you’re still allright by me. but damn, you’re like the e-ore (not sure how to spell the winnie the pooh charaters name) of RBR. and thats okay. i mean, seems like every potentially close game you say we might lose, and we win. so i realy wouldn’t want to see you calling for us to blow them out this week anyways. like Bear said, you stick with what got you there.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
thanks and yes, you understood well
except i was thinking of this guy 
, bad luck schleprock, not eeyore, which i’m sure is a reference lost on most of you yungins on this blog
‘wowsie wowsie woo woo’
"You have to create 6 seconds of hell each play..."
Coach Nick Saban
amen!
i cant wait til i get out of work. nothing but PS3 until i pass out. wake up early, PS3, drankin, then BLOOOODDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
+1
That’s definitely FTW.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 6:26 PM CST up reply actions
There simply is NO WAY . . .
that you could justify calling a Bama win an upset. It would simply be one great team beating another one.
by M. Johnson Defender on Dec 4, 2009 4:34 PM CST up reply actions
May be . . .
but there still ain’t no general consensus.
by M. Johnson Defender on Dec 4, 2009 4:31 PM CST reply actions
Well...
… if you disagree with that, then that’s fine, but if so then what is your definition of a general consensus?
For what its worth, mine is just that a general consensus is the judgment arrived at by the majority of those who are following a particular issue. With that loose definition in mind, Florida is between a 5.5 and a 6 point favorite in this game, and more non-homer pundits than not are seemingly picking Florida.
I certainly don’t think ’Bama winning this game would constitute a huge upset or anything along those lines, mind you, but I do think that the general consensus is that Florida is the favorite.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 6:32 PM CST up reply actions
for the most part it looks to me like the popular feeling is that florida wins
however i wouldn’t use the term concensus either (that could be becuase i used to be an anarchist activist and god damn getting 60 hippies to concense on something is HUGE TASK, so i know a real concensus in the literal sense is actually quite hard to acheive)…. brent mushbooger said he thinks we will win. mark mayday has our back. the best local sports guy in AZ, Bob Kemp, has us picked in a close one.
count me among the many though who certainly appreciate your analysis, even if it tastes like sour medicine from time to time.
for the record, my gut has been acting up the last few days. i keep having visions of us coming passing and going up early just like in 99. i know i wasn’t expecting us to totaly kick their ass then, but that is what we did… it’s like i’m like have “pre-deja-vu”
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
I'll defend 5026...
… obviously he and I are in fairly close agreement. Obviously I, and I’m sure he, sincerely hope I’m wrong on this one. The mere thought of losing back-to-back undefeated seasons in this manner literally makes me want to puke. I hope I am a complete idiot with no clue about what I’m talking about.
That said, at some point you have to cut the homeristic bullshit and give a fair, objective take on the game at hand, even if it’s not what you or your readers want to hear. I want to say we’ll go through the Gators like shit through a goose, but realistically I know that’s not true. I know we’re going to have to play extremely well to win and have very little reason to believe otherwise.
And, at the risk of tooting my own horn, I will add that I wrote much along these same lines a year ago, and then too was often refuted at every turn by people saying we would win. Ultimately I turned out to right then. I said we needed to play almost perfect football, and we only played “good.” That got us beat. I imagine it will again this year.
Now I will readily admit that underlying my analysis here is the belief that Florida will play their best game of the season against us. I see no reason whatsoever to believe otherwise. As a team the pieces are still in place to get the job done, and I feel confident that they will rise and meet the occasion. That is fine, but we are going to have to raise our game accordingly. Hopefully Florida will lay an egg tomorrow afternoon, but again I can find no reason to expect that.
Again, I pray I’m wrong, the thought of losing like this again literally makes me sick at my stomach. But by the same token I’m not going to sit here and lie to myself about the situation. We are going to have to play extremely good football tomorrow afternoon to give ourselves a chance to win this game, and if you feel otherwise, you are likely just fooling yourselves.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 6:08 PM CST reply actions
And I'll also add...
… that if I’m wrong on this then feel free to call me out on it. If we can win tomorrow with a performance ranging from decent to good, then obviously I’m wrong.
Nevertheless, though, in the above post I mentioned 11 different things that we must do in order to win this football game. I’ll bet one of two things happens… we do just about all of those things (probably eight or more) and we win, or we don’t and we get beat.
If I’m wrong, so be it. Call me out on it and rightly so. That said, though, again, I expect that we will need to play almost perfect football, and if we don’t do that then come tomorrow night we’ll all be talking about who we’re going to play in New Orleans, I’ll be trolling ’Bama boards looking for meltdown material, and we’ll all be imbibing the proverbial Newcastle to drown the pain.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 6:23 PM CST up reply actions
i think your best (most impactful on our chances of winning) point is probably the most obvious:
Offensive line must get the job done in pass protection.
i think with the loss of dunlap we really have an opportunity to go for some big shots downfeild along with lots of short possesion oriented passes. people call it “dink and dunk” in a dismissive way, but when it sets the D up for getting gashed hard core on draws, and alows us to really have our way by running once they adjust over to a real nickle package, then i call it “Bill Walsh wearing crimson”.
i dont think florida expects or will be very good at adjusting to us coming out looking to throw on first and second down like we did vs LSU. i think the only adjustment they will have to us (if we’re successfuly doing it of course) would be to lose a LB and therefore leave everything up to spikes when it comes to stopping our run. spikes is good but he cant win the game single handedly, especially if he’s chasing ghosts (i feel and believe that we’ll see lots of 2 back sets).
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
I have a question for you, OTS
What percentage of the snaps on defense does Cody play tomorrow night?
Cody is one of my favorite players, I have confidence in his strengths, but I don’t think his style of play is suited to quickly changing direction in pursuit of the shovel-pass/misdirection/reverse/scramble.
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
by animalcracker on Dec 4, 2009 6:56 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know...
I would imagine that he would probably play about the same percentage of snaps that he normally does. That could change depending on how the game plays out — the fewer snaps in the game and the higher the percentage of the snaps he will play, and vice versa — but I wouldn’t necessarily expect any drastic changes.
In any event, he needs to play a lot and play at an extremely high level. I know it sounds counter-intuitive as hell, but as Danielson has pointed out on several occasions, the key to stopping this Florida attack is to have the one tough player holding the point of attack. If you can do that and use that to stop the interior running game, that frees up the back seven as I mentioned earlier. The linebackers can chase sideline-to-sideline, the safeties can play back against the big play, all the while the corners can afford to be more aggressive on the outside against the short possession routes.
Again, I know that all sounds counter-intuitive as hell from the outset, but it makes sense if you think a bit closer about it. Bottom line, we need Cody to play the game of his life tomorrow.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 10:45 PM CST up reply actions
you might want to give this a read...
http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2009/12/4/1186370/how-florida-can-nutralize-terrence
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
Well . . .
. . . your analysis of the particulars is excellent and appreciated but I think you lean too heavily toward anti-homerism, which leads you to spend more time talking about Florida’s strengths than Bama’s strengths, which leads you further to speak of an “upset.” This seems out of all proportion to the situation: two undefeated teams from the same conference ranked 1 and 2 nationally at the end of the regular season. The word “upset” should not be used in this context.
by M. Johnson Defender on Dec 4, 2009 8:42 PM CST up reply actions
florida
is the favorite. both by ranking and the lines. if we won, it would be an upset.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
Absurd use of the term . . .
. . . when the spread is this close and the distance between the rankings in both human and computer polls is this miniscule. “Upset” implies an established order with little chance of change. Anyone who thinks that Bama has only a small chance of beating Florida tomorrow is just not shooting straight for some reason.
by M. Johnson Defender on Dec 5, 2009 12:42 AM CST up reply actions
i think i see now....
…they should just give us the championship because it’s clear these two teams are for all intents and purposes equal and the only fair thing to do is share the sec title on a rotating basis. thanks for pointing that out.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
Yes . .
. . . that’s what I said: If one team cannot “upset” the other, then they should not play one another and simply agree to share the win. Instead of ties, we should start a whole new system of half wins. The teams could get together to watch a movie, maybe share a few hugs (or nose rubs in the case of the Gators).
I was actually trying to make a point about giving a balanced analysis leading up to a game. My point was shot to hell a few minutes after I posted last night when I went on ESPN.com to read Maisel’s column. There was a picture of last year’s Gators with a caption that read: “Florida upset No. 1 Alabama for the SEC title in 2008.” That’s an even more bizarre use of “upset” than OTS’s, since Florida was favored to win despite Bama’s higher ranking. So, I stand corrected. But I still think it’s a poor use of language, perhaps encouraged by the pundits who want to be able to sensationalize as many games as possible.
I just wonder: If Bama wins, we’d need to distinguish this upset from Washington’s win over USC earlier this year. I suppose you could call the latter a major upset and the former a mild upset but it still sounds strange to me to speak of Bama winning as a “mild upset.”
Roll Tide!
by M. Johnson Defender on Dec 5, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
If we win it
is not a huge upset…that would be Nebraska beating Texas. But if we win it will be a surprise to most college footbal fans, it will be considered an upset because UF is favored, and it will be a shock to the Gator Nation.
I really really hope I get all kinds of grief on this game because we destroy Florida. If that happens I will be extremly and overwhelmingly happy for weeks. And I definitley like the winner tomorrow over Texas or TCU.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
the only thing that would surprise most fans is a blowout in either direction
even the dudes at my work who give me shit for being a Bama fan say we have a real good shot. hell even the two gator fans here at my work are being more cautious than they were last year.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
Florida fans I know
are scooping up NCG tickets on the net. Seriously, most of the UF people I know are very confident. And after last Sat. and the “Good Bye Timmy” party they threw in Gainesville (disguised as a football game) they feel they have the messiah or supreman, or both playing qb and they think he can not let them down. I’m telling you these folks have totally bought into the Legend of Tebow.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
for all those interested
the 6A state championship game is on tv right now, and #15 on defense for Prattville is Nick Perry, a Bama commit. This is probably the only chance any of us has had to see the kid in action
"Yeah, it's Tennessee, that's the way it is sometimes." - Corey Zickefoose, Pulitzer Prize winner and robbery victim
by Thomas Walker Esq on Dec 4, 2009 7:33 PM CST reply actions
Hoover won in a close one...
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 10:38 PM CST up reply actions
Why?
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on Dec 4, 2009 10:37 PM CST up reply actions
I F***ing believe Saban hasnt been able to sleep at night thinking about this game for the past year!
We are going to be more prepared for this game than anyone we have seen in the past 10 years. We have a great shot at this one. Positive motherfu**ing vibes guys. We can do this. WE WILL MAKE THEIR ASSES QUIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
36-0
"If wanting to win is a fault, as some of my critics seem to insist, then I plead guilty. I like to win. I know no other way. It's in my blood."- The Bear
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