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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

Texas running game: Worse than you thought

I was over at CFB Stats, browsing through the Longhorns' split offensive numbers, and, to be as gentle as possible, the rushing numbers aren't just bad; they are putrid. Texas enters the NCG with the following numbers:

485 attempts for 1985 yards, an average of 152 .69 YPG, and about 4 per carry.

However, dig a little deeper, into those numbers against teams with winning records:


VS the 6 teams with winning records, the 'Horns average a mere 2.7 per carry (219 attempts) for a total of 592 yards and 98.67 ypg.

But, there is a huge difference between a 7-5 team and a team that's actually ranked right? Dead on.

VS the two currently AP ranked teams the 'Horns have played, the numbers are abominable, and I think _the_ single key to a 'Bama victory are borne out below:

70 carries for a total of 117 yards; 58.5 per game, with an average of 1.67 per carry




















 







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thanks for the leg work

"There's a lot of blood, sweat and guts between dreams and success." PBB

by Pachyderm Pride on Dec 7, 2009 3:20 PM CST reply actions  

Wow,

I had an idea that their running game was weak but, jeez.

Auburn fans are like slinkys... not really good for anything but they still bring a smile to your face when you push them down a flight of stairs.

by IHC800 on Dec 7, 2009 3:43 PM CST reply actions  

Texas refuses to stick to one RB.

This does not allow for any RB to gain confidence in his ability. As a Texas fan this running back by committee game plan is the worst way to initiate a strong running offense. Also, Greg Davis (offensive coordinator) does not call that many run plays. He calls a lot of quick throws such as the quick slant or wide receiver screens which do not get counted in running play stats. IMO we have two guys that can break big plays Newton and Whittaker. However, I think Cody Johnson is are most dependable back. Johnson can bull people over as OU saw last year when it took three Sooners to bring him down. He showed up this year overweight and was not used that much early on. I’m willing to bet Johnson will get the starting nod coming in to the MNC game due to lack of being able to run the ball in the Big 12 title game.

ATX

by Atownatx on Dec 7, 2009 4:28 PM CST reply actions  

This

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 7, 2009 5:39 PM CST up reply actions  

...but...

…we only need one punter to take down yours….

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 7, 2009 8:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Trey Newton has 102 carries...

for a shade over 500 yards and 5 ypc…I think that’s sufficient (coupled with the fact he’s really been the sole back the last few games). Contrast that with the 128 carries by McCoy (for about 2.5 pc) and the 40 passes per game, and I think you see what I’m getting at.

It’s not a running game that’s going to take a team and push them to the finish. It’s a pretty one dimensional attack, and — from this perspective — it’s one we need to absolutely make one dimensional fairly early (see also, Florida 2009 SECCG).

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 7, 2009 5:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I

am still amazed at how early Florida abandoned the run. Especially when you consider how everything in their offense is predicated off of that.

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Dec 8, 2009 8:57 AM CST up reply actions  

35 passes to 14 runs

fuckin crazy for “the best running team in the nation” if their fans were to be believed

for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph

by tempebamafan on Dec 8, 2009 9:50 AM CST up reply actions  

RB by committee has been working pretty well for us the last 2 years

we have over 2000 yards in both 08 and 09 with 2/3 guys splitting carries.

for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph

by tempebamafan on Dec 8, 2009 9:55 AM CST up reply actions  

There’s a difference between “RB by committee” and spelling your starter when he’s had a lot of hits and carries. Ingram has 2x the carries an 3x the yards of Richardson. He has 5x the carries of Upchurch.

It’d also be worth looking to see what percentage of Richardson’s carries came after Ingram was done for the day on account of a blowout. He’s only broken 10 carries a game 6 times this year: FIU, NT, KY, MSU, Auburn, Florida.

I'm wrong all the time.

by PeteHoliday on Dec 8, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Agree with you Pete.

One thing that does give our running game that “by committee” feeling, though, is the lack of drop off in production. Unless it appeared Ingram was hurt for some reason, absolutely no one was worried when Trent stepped into the game – he was going to put up similar numbers per carry, and punish defenders just like Ingram did. It felt like they were splitting time, even though they really weren’t. That says a lot for Trent and Upchurch, and also for our offense.

I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR

by SugarBowl93 on Dec 8, 2009 12:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed

I also think that has something to do with how many carries Trent gets. Ingram gets to rest earlier and more frequently because Trent is such a stellar runner in his own right. It’s not that there’s not a clear #1 and #2, it’s that there’s no reason to punish your #1 runner in a 14 game season when #2 is every bit as good. When he starts getting worn, rest him for a play or two (or a series).

Also: another 120+ carry season for Trent next year and he’ll be an absolute monster in 2011. That’s basically a year of starting solid game experience.

I'm wrong all the time.

by PeteHoliday on Dec 8, 2009 1:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Texas' game plan will not

call for much running. However, Colt McCoy is the real deal at qb. He is dangerous. If there is any team that can win just on passing and defense it is Texas.

Nebraska was able to basically stop McCoy by putting pressure on him primarily with their D linemen, thus leaving the db’s to cover Texas’ receivers who are very good.

Bama will need guys like Dareus, Anders, Upshaw etc. to have a big game. Don’t know if we can blitz Javy that much, we did not blitz him against the dangerous Tebow and it was a wise move. McCoy is better than Tebow at releasing the ball so we need to pressure him while still having solid coverage. And if we are in man coverage we cannot let McCoy get out of the pocket as he can run faster than Tebow.

Nevertheless, playing a somewhat one dimensional offense, like Texas, is something Saban should be able to exploit.

I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.

by 5026 on Dec 7, 2009 5:32 PM CST reply actions  

Against real defenses

Colt just has looked overwhelmed and terrified…that look in his eye against OU and NU wasn’t solely because of “big game” stress…It’s confusion.

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 7, 2009 5:40 PM CST up reply actions  

That doesn't imply that he's not dangerous...

he is. But the key is to make the initial tackle on that bubble-screen/middle-screen offense, and then pin the ears back…of course, keeping a spy for McCoy who is significantly faster than Tebow.

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 7, 2009 5:43 PM CST up reply actions  

McCoy's

speed and overall athletic ability to scramble is what scares me. I think we can cover JS and stop any semblance of a traditional rushing attach. I also foresee their D coming out absolutely jacked to start the game. It will be important to weather that early storm and not give up any freebees.

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Dec 8, 2009 9:01 AM CST up reply actions  

Ditto.

I’d love a methodical, grinding drive on the ground to demoralize them early.

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 8, 2009 3:44 PM CST up reply actions  

...and often....

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 8, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes

make them ask where their god is now.

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Dec 8, 2009 4:03 PM CST up reply actions  

one thing i'd like to hear from OTS on...

is if the defensive gameplan for mcoy will be like what we did to counter tyrod taylor’s run threat in the VT game.

Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.

by kleph on Dec 7, 2009 8:36 PM CST up reply actions  

no matter what, please promiss me

that your final game prediction will be mostly doom and or gloom. something akin to “texas a has a super stout D, muschamp had more than a month to prepare for us, their QB is the best we’ve faced since Tom Brady, i dont see how we win unless we play absolutely perfect, mistake free football for all 60 minutes…”

for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph

by tempebamafan on Dec 8, 2009 9:53 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

and don’t forget ‘hope for the best’

"You have to create 6 seconds of hell each play..."
Coach Nick Saban

by LittleSis on Dec 9, 2009 5:50 AM CST up reply actions  

as usual....

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 9, 2009 9:36 PM CST up reply actions  

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