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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

And the Valley Shook takes a look at LSU's trip to Tuscaloosa.

over 2 years ago Disreputable_tiny Todd 19 comments 0 recs  | 

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That’s what you get trying to predict with incomplete information, which is, unfortunately, all we can do is July and August.

Making predictions in July and August, is bolder. It also requires knowledge of the game beyond simple stats and totaling recruiting stars. Watching how players come off the ball, watching their technique, watching how quickly or slowly they get up after being drilled, watching their form on tackles, watching their footwork, watching their routes, watching how they show blitzes, watching the fundamentals, et cetera. An eye for talent, which can come from playing and coaching, is essential when making predictions. By picking up on the little intricacies on film that that don’t show up in stats, you can increase your winnings in gambling by a good percentage because you have a better idea about who will be a breakthrough player/team. You can win big early in the season, before the Vegas bookies, using stats and results, perfect the odds.

I usually only gamble at the beginning of the season and the end for this reason.

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Jul 14, 2009 1:38 PM CDT reply actions  

that was total cop out

but i didn’t want to address it as part of my first comment over there. incomplete information? howabout the concensus #1 recruiting class, and we had/have the best coach in the country and they as LSU fans should have known that.

i guess if horribly inaccurate predictions are the best we can hope for if we make them in july, then i’m proud as hell for calling for us to go 11-1 in the regular season and finish 12-2 overall. damn i’m good. that or i can predict sunrises just like anyone else who pays attention to them.

FWIW my prediction this year is 14-0. SECCG and BCS championship game victors.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Jul 14, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

but i didn’t want to address it as part of my first comment over there. incomplete information? howabout the concensus #1 recruiting class, and we had/have the best coach in the country and they as LSU fans should have known that.

Don’t get spoiled. I’ve followed recruiting pretty heavily for a long time, and usually the “consensus #1 recruiting class” means jack and squat for the FOLLOWING SEASON. Very few players are ready to come in and be immediate impact players on good teams. Usually, you get a lot of players who can come in and play limited roles and develop into key players. Just to take a few familiar examples, LSU receiver Early Doucet was the consensus #1 receiver, a 5-star, coming out of high school. How many passes did he catch his true freshman year? 18. Productive, but not exactly setting the world on fire. And that was for “the best coach in the country.” He ended up with a very nice career, and it would have been better if not for some injuries. And heck, like a lot of 5-stars, he was probably a little bit overrated from the beginning. His 5-star running mate from the 2004 class, Xavier Carter? Out of football after 2 unproductive years. Our most celebrated alum in the last several years, Glenn Dorsey, was a little-used reserve his true freshman year, playing a role and getting some time, but not headlining anything.

You can’t trust recruiting rankings. They’re as much about hype and media biases as anything. And even good recruiting classes usually don’t have a significant immediate impact. Like a lot of reasonable observers, I looked at Bama’s 2008 recruiting class and I said, “There are some good players here, but it’s probably not as good as advertised, and the true impact won’t be felt for at least a year.” It turns out that, unlike most heavily hyped recruiting classes, Bama actually got good production out of theirs immediately. I maintain that it could not have been reliably predicted by an outside observer.

Richard Pittman

by Richard Pittman on Jul 14, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Richard...

…who’s your favorite little rascal? Alfalfa?… Or is it SPANKY?

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 14, 2009 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

you right about new recruits

and that typically, if a bunch of true freshmen are on the field, then you’re in bad shape. but regarding Julio and Terrance Cody, 98% of Bama Fans were convinced (as well as Bama sportswriters) that they would start and be productive from day one. That they were both All American Caliber in their first year, i dont think anyone would have predicted.

another compelling stat form last years Bama squad that I could have mentioned earlier, was the 114 combined career starts for the O-line. that was alot, like 4th most in the country. and as it turned out, our O line played pretty well. Also JPW was a fith year senior who was going to be working with a QB coach and O coordinator who’s stated philosophy is “making the game easier for my QB” and who has a track record of success and quick turnarounds in just 1 year with many QB’s.

anyway maybe i was just just drinkin too much cool-aid and happened to get lucky. but i tell yew whut, Bama’s going to have a damn good defense this year, and if you’re betting against GMAC then you’re probably going to lose…. Injuries on the O line or to our QB are, in my mind, the only thing that can stop us from going 12-0 again. and as long as we have Terrance Cody for the SECCG and most of the other starters on D, then i think we can win this year.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Jul 15, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

still cant find a line on the VT game... but we're holding ateady at +2000 (or "20 to 1") to win the MNC

easy money. i’m layin at least 50, maybe 100 on us to win the title when i get to vegas August 18th.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Jul 14, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah

I’ll probably always be a little miffed by one of those LSU guys calling me a moron when I was talking about how our level of talent is going up and LSU’s is either staying the same (at best) or dropping off a little. It was pretty clear we’d have a good team in 2008, since we had a lot of starters back from a top 35 defense and if you watched our games and the clips from practices, you can see little bits of improvement. I remember before 1999 telling people about how Cornelius Griffin would have a great season and people saying, “He only had ____ tackles last year. He’s okay.” I’m thinking, do you even know what a good defensive lineman looks like without the stats? At that time, if you gathered 100 players, five of which were NFL players, and let me watch them practice, I could pick the five NFL players off this kind of stuff.

I don’t know how to explain it without sitting down next to someone and pointing it out, like saying, “See how he shivers? That’s hard to do that well, and he does it better than others in drills.” There are no stats for some of that stuff and when you talk about it, people will call you a homer and a moron.

I mean, I look at the little crap because I used to play and I’ve coached for a lot of years. I know how things are supposed to look, and I know who’s doing a really good job even when the announcers, writers, and coaches don’t publicly acknowledge it because that’s how I see football.

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Jul 14, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah, tackles for a DT

is not a good stat to look at. iused to play nose gaurd in Pop Warner and i remember getting so pissed off at the ends and LB’s who would get to make a clean hit on a TB as he was fleeing my rush up the middle. everyone would be like “ooohhhh great hit” and i’m thinkin to myself, he only ran your way because i blew the center clean off his ass.

(one time i was probably in 7th grade, i chased the QB straight backwards on what was supposed to be an option sweep, and before i could nail his ass he pitched the ball backwards and out of bounds for like a 25 yard loss. then i creamed him. and i was so pissed off i started crying… )

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Jul 14, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

this game is second

on my list of “diarrhea inducing” fear over the thought of how the game might turn out

1. Ole Miss – poo my pants level

2. LSU – dude we need to leave, I just sharted

3. Virginia Tech – I can hold it in if I squeeze my cheeks and walk funny

Seriously, Ole Miss has surpassed my fear of LS-Who.

WARNING small parts that could be a choking hazard

by Wallacewade04 on Jul 14, 2009 2:03 PM CDT reply actions  

i'm not too concerned about ol miss.

i may be signing a different tune come october 10th, but for now, i’m thinking we’ll see some regression on their part. Also we dominated the first half last year, and then w/ the injury to Cody allowed them to move the ball a little in the second half. but i dont know what the hell we were doing wrong on O in the second half. we basicaly were shut down entirely… i’m not trying to short change Ol miss here, but we must have done something ourselves that contributed to that massive dispairity in the 2 halfs offensive production… i think we beat ol miss by 2 TD’s this year and it’s never really a nail biter.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Jul 14, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yea I know I know

but the past couple of years Ole Piss has been screwing with my bowels man.

2005 – last second field goal

2006 – Overtime win

2007 – He was out dammit! quit your bitchin!

2008 – Thank god for errant passes

I mean seriously this game has been affecting me physically for the past four seasons!

WARNING small parts that could be a choking hazard

by Wallacewade04 on Jul 14, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not afraid of losing to Ole Miss...

….but I am afraid of the 364 days of complete and total shit I will get from the Girl if it actually happens.

by Todd on Jul 14, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm

affraid of Arky, nobody is talking about them and they had a very good signing class. Plus Petrino may be a better offensive coach than Urban Meyer (excuse me, better duck).

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Jul 15, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

yeah but it's at home

and i’m pretty sure arky gets us the middle of a murders row on their schedule. plus their D was horrible last year and nothing significant has been done to improve it… i’m guessing this could be another one of Joe Pendry’s career highlight film type games…(Remember andre getting to the second level to help bust coffee free for the 80 plus yarder? beautiful)

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Jul 15, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

It

was beautiful, as well as the 27 pick sixes we had.

"A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." -H. L. Mencken

by Bens4vcobra on Jul 15, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Arkansas...

….should be a very big concern for us. I don’t think its a loss, but it sure won’t be the same blowout it was last year. Think more along the lines of the ’07 shootout. Left arm is tingling already…

by Todd on Jul 15, 2009 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

ahhh yes that familiar tightness in the chest

and shortness of breath, it must be the weekend of the arkansas game…

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Jul 18, 2009 3:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

but

i still think they’re a year or two away from being legit contenders. no doubt though that ryan mallet is going to put up big numbers before he leaves arkansas for the NFL. i lived in Louisville when Petrino got to town, and that guy gets production out of his QB’s. but he also uses his backs when he’s got good ones, which he kinda sorta has this year… so all in all, maybe they will be a serious threat afteral. they have 10 dudes back on D, and all 10 of the top tacklers are back (furthermore, 14 of the top 16 tacklers are back, tacklers from a unit that could barely tackle).

i’d still put this in the same category as the south carolina and UK games though. important, potential losses, but ultimately, we’re better and should have no excuse to lose at all.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Jul 18, 2009 3:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

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