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Week Three Preview: Alabama vs North Texas Overview

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North Texas QB Riley Dodge

When the 2004 season came to a close, North Texas fans had to be feeling pretty well. With a blowout win over Arkansas State in the regular season finale, the Mean Green wrapped up their fourth consecutive Sun Belt Conference championship and were headed to New Orleans for their fourth consecutive bowl game. Unfortunately for the North Texas faithful, however, the wheels fell off the following year. Then head coach Darrell Dickey would go 2-9 and 3-9, respectively, over the course of the next two seasons, bringing his nine-year tenure to an end.

Looking to breathe new life into the program, North Texas went into the high schools ranks and hired Todd Dodge, head coach of Carroll High School, one of the nation's most prolific high school football programs. Leading the Carroll Dragons, Dodge went a combined went a combined 79-1 in his final five years at Carroll with four state championships coming in five years -- the only loss came in the state championship game in 2003 in a 16-15 loss to Katy. Dodge had previously coached at North Texas in the early 1990's, and having that kind of success just 20 miles south of Denton proved to be too tempting for the Mean Green administration to pass over.

Unfortunately, the Dodge era at North Texas hasn't exactly gone to plan. He went 2-10 in his debut campaign, and things got worse in 2008 as the program fell to 1-11. Making matters even worse, the losses generally weren't even remotely close. Nine of the eleven losses came with a margin of defeat of 28 points or more, and Rice even managed to put 77 points up on the board. The sole win came after winning a 51-40 shootout over Western Kentucky, a Division 1-AA team trying to make the jump up to the highest classification. As a result, not surprisingly, Dodge comes into the 2009 campaign with an increasingly warm seat. His tenure hasn't been entirely a disaster -- he hire created a lot of publicity, he has made some strides recruiting the Dallas area, and interest in the program is clearly up -- but everyone knows that this game is ultimately a game of wins and losses, and no coach with a career record of 3-21 can ever feel safe in his job.

Star-divide

Offensively, North Texas likes to spread the field and throw the football. Their base formation is a four-wide receiver set, and they operate almost solely out of some variation of that personnel grouping. There are no fullbacks on the roster, nor are their any tight ends. It's a spread team at its core and they make very few intentions of doing anything else.

At quarterback, normally, is Riley Dodge, son of head coach Todd Dodge. The freshman Dodge is a dual-threat player who is probably the biggest recruit the North Texas program will ever get -- he was committed to Texas before spurning the 'Horns to play for his father -- and he's legitimately a good player. Though he's a bit of a small player, he can make plays with his feet and he is an accurate passer. Fortunately for the Tide, however, Dodge separated his shoulder last weekend against Ball State, and he will not play this Saturday. In his place will be Nathan Tune, a senior, who is more of a traditional pocket passer without near the mobility and athleticism that Dodge brings to the table.Tune's start against Alabama will be the first start of his career.

The wide receiver corps, likewise, is also a major question mark at this point. They have only one returning starter from a year ago, sophomore Sam Roberson, and it's been a unit that has struggled to date. Mike Outlaw dropped two critical passes last week in the loss to Ohio, and outside of one long catch-and-run by JUCO transfer Jamaal Jackson, the unit as a whole has failed to generate any big plays.

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RB Cam Montgomery

With question marks at quarterback and wide receiver -- already a big negative for a spread passing team -- the strength of the offense becomes the line play and the tailbacks. The offensive line itself is a veteran group that returns all five starters from a year ago, and they do have as many as eight linemen with meaningful experience. Unfortunately for North Texas, however, starting left tackle Victor Gill will also miss this game with a separated shoulder, and that has caused a re-shuffling of the offensive line. It's still a pretty decent group even without Gill, but his absence clearly makes life easier for the Crimson Tide defense.

With both the starting quarterback and starting left tackle missing this game, not to mention question marks at wide receiver, expect tailback Cam Montgomery to take on a pretty big role in this game, and don't sell short on Mr. Montgomery. He plays the part physically, coming in at around 6'1 and 220 pounds, and he's a physical back who is difficult to bring down. He was a four-star recruit coming out of the Mississippi JUCO ranks, and he rushed for almost 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns last year. He'll have an even bigger year this year, if he can stay healthy, and you may very well see him playing on Sunday.

Defensively, North Texas was absolutely atrocious last year in every single facet, effectively finishing as nearly the worst team in the country in almost every single major defensive category. In the off-season, though, Dodge brought back former defensive coordinator Gary DeLoach, and the early returns look good. Eight starters return from a year ago, and through two games the unit as a whole looks much improved. They only gave up 10 points to Ball State, and the following week gave up only 13 points in regulation to Ohio. It's nothing overly special, of course, but the defense does look to be a relatively solid one thus far, and honestly there are some talented players on that side of the ball. The defensive line is a bit green, but Craig Robertson and Tobe Nwigwe are both very good linebackers, and honestly cornerback Kylie Hill would probably be one of the SEC's better defensive backs, and he will probably play in the NFL next year.

For the Tide, offensively we will probably continue to do what we have done to date. We will have a multiple attack that will look to both establish the run and throw the football efficiently. Roy Upchurch is almost certainly out of this game, and likewise Julio Jones probably will not play, but the Tide should have plenty of skill position firepower to get the job done even without those two participating. Expect a lot more touches for Trent Richardson, Terry Grant, Mike McCoy, and perhaps Michael Bowman. Likewise, on defense, don't expect to see anything overly different than what we typically do. The biggest adjustment will likely be in terms of personnel. If the Mean Green spreads the field with four wide receivers as usual, expect to see a lot of nickel and dime packages from the Tide, and specifically look to see more playing time for the likes of Dre Kirkpatrick, Robby Green, Ali Sharrief, Tyrone King, and Chris Rogers.

And that is effectively the North Texas game in a nut shell. After being easily one of the worst teams in the country from 2005-2008, if early returns hold true, the Mean Green looks to be an improved team this year, but even so it's a team that should give Alabama no real trouble. And frankly, with Riley Dodge and Victor Gill missing this game, the Tide simply ought to beat North Texas like a drum. No excuses. In a game like this -- at the risk of causing another ULM-esque disaster solely due to bad karma with the Football Gods -- it's not a matter of whether you win, it's a matter of how you win, and how healthy you are once the clock reads 0:00. Last week's win over Florida International was a solid victory, but with Julio Jones banging up his knee, Roy Upchurch getting a high ankle sprain, and Damion Square being knocked out for the remainder of the year with a torn ACL, it was a very costly victory. For the North Texas game, the Tide should win with relative ease, but we all just have to hope that the price of victory isn't quite so high against the Mean Green.

Hope for the best.

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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I watched the Ball State game

And they have some offensive talent. Admittedly, that was with Riley as a dual threat…against a terrible (and rebuilding MAC defense), but to go on the road and win by double digits shows that this team is heading in the right direction.

That said, it’s going to be a long, long day for the Mean Green, especially without Riley Dodge playing.

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Sep 18, 2009 10:16 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Any chance...

…we cover the spread of 38?

by sixfoot7 on Sep 18, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe...

… but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Our history in covering big spreads in the post-Bryant era is absolutely atrocious. And it should be pointed out that we didn’t cover the spread last week either. Most bookmakers had that around 28-30 points, and we won by only 27.

We ought to win big, but we rarely play in these games like we should, and I also imagine our coaching staff will do all they can to get young guys playing time if we get up early.

Given the foregoing, I could see it happening, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Of course I’m not a betting man, but even if I were I don’t think I’d take ’Bama with a 38-point spread.

by outsidethesidelines on Sep 18, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unlike OTS

I am a betting man, and I’ve learned that it’s unwise to bet with your heart. Not only do I try not to bet on Alabama, I try to avoid betting on our rivals because my dislike for their programs can cloud my judgment.

That said, I didn’t think we’d cover last week, and I don’t think we’ll cover this week. I also thought Notre Dame would beat Michigan, so really, who knows.

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Sep 18, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

About ND v. Michigan...

… that one was just a toss-up either way. Notre Dame could have just as easily won that game, and honestly had they played ten times, it would have probably ended up 5-5.

by outsidethesidelines on Sep 18, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never bet on Bama...

…football. I was just asking to see what everyone had to say. FWIW, I don’t think we cover either.

by sixfoot7 on Sep 18, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Notre Dame v. Michigan

was a toss up which is why I don’t feel so bad for losing. The spread was -3, I think, so it was pretty much even money.

I must say, it’s dangerous living close to casinos. It’s also dangerous to open the mail when you receive flyers for internet gambling sites that offer $50 dollars free cash on a $100 deposit.

MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--

BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.

by Bamagrad on Sep 18, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

have you found a single site that is halfway convienent?

the rules and stipulations they put on you are insane and totaly take all the fun out of everything IMO (sportsbook.com in this case). i pretty much just plan to suck it up and drive 5 hours to vegas a few times a season to get my fill. would love to find a reputable and convienent online sportsbook though….

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Sep 19, 2009 2:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I got the UNT game at 36.5

And I STILL wouldn’t touch it…I did take last week at 33.5; and it certainly should have been a cover…but as a general rule, I like Alabama -6 (or less) under Saban or as a road dog. FWIW: Ga Tech is destroying my wallet :(

"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch

by Stuck in the Plains on Sep 18, 2009 4:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i've had a rough go

to start the year off. all 3 of my opening week parlays were destroyed… (i hade WKU + 31 vs tennesee…. which kind reinforced Bamagrad’s point from above about beting against our rivals)

however i do still 100 on us to win the BCS title at 25 to 1 odds.

i also have us to hit the Over on total reg season wins at 9.5. that was -120 also, so 50 will get me like 63.50 plus the 50 back.

and i also put 50 on the Under on Notre Dame @ 8.5… feelin real good about that one as well.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Sep 19, 2009 2:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

derrr + 120.....

anyway. gamblin is fun, especially when your bets are alligned with your fervent rooting interests. if we win the title, not only will i be as happy asa pig in sh*t, i’ll be 2500 bones richer.. well actually more like 1000, but my trip to Pasadena and then Vegas will be paid for.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Sep 19, 2009 2:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Besides a win,

one thing I would really like to see is us cover kick-offs and keep these guys out of the end zone. I don’t care about the point spread, but I do not want a first half like last week.

If are the #4 team in the country we need to look like it. We have played 2 games and have yet to play a good 1st half. That needs to change.

I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.

by 5026 on Sep 18, 2009 6:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

agreed

i want us to put together a solid, error free 60 minutes. no more silly mistakes like false starts or missed assignments. no more dropped INT’s, and most importantly, no slip ups at all on kick coverage.

welcome to the SEC kiffykins...

by tempebamafan on Sep 19, 2009 2:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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