Running Back Success Rates vs. Arkansas
Sweet mercy. Be prepared to read some dismal numbers everybody. The numbers against Virginia Tech (which I still need to post) weren't great, but these are abysmal. I know everyone knew the running game didn't go well against the Razorbacks, but seeing it in spreadsheets makes it look even worse than the ugly truth we already knew about. As always, running backs are listed in order of their first carry:
Nothing really special about Ingram's day outside of the two TDs (one of which was a reception.) Only one carry over 10 yards and another four at five yards or greater (though only one of those was a success due to the down and distance when they were made.) Needless to say, they were shutting the run down quite nicely.
As OTS noted in this post, Richardson's 52 yard TD run should've been a loss. His success on that carry was due to an incredible amount of piss poor tackling (I believe four guys had a legit shot at him) and hard running on Richardson's part. Take that carry away and his numbers are just as bad as everyone else's. The 7.2 YPC for Richardson against Arkansas is the exact reason for this kind of analytical breakdown. That run was an outlier that massively skewed the overall performance numbers.
Most of Grant's carries came in garbage time where we were just killing the clock and attempting to not run up the score (unlike many other teams out there.) I knew we were running, Arkansas knew we were running, everyone knew we were running and the numbers reflect that they were stacking the box.
We ended the day with a 23% success rate as a team. Thank goodness the passing game was able to light it up.
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That's probably going to be our biggest test...
When we play a very good or great team, and they manage to shut down our run (like Utah did), will we be able to beat them purely with the pass and defense? That will probably happen sometime this year. I hope we’re ready.
by crimsontsunami on Sep 28, 2009 7:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
id almost say
that happen last saturday…outside of Trents big run that is
Scoring against Alabama will be like birthing a child: rare, painful, and messy. - The Ghost of Jay Cutler
by bammer on Sep 28, 2009 8:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
But if we do that against a team like Florida or LSU, it’s going to be a lot tougher. The defense is going to have to shut ’em down. I have a lot of faith in our defense, though, and McElroy is a hell of a player, so I expect to win when we get tested.
by crimsontsunami on Sep 28, 2009 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great work...
Great work, Nico, this is really insightful stuff. I was afraid we would struggle to run the football against them in the preview, and I was right. Moving forward it’s going to be a very big issue.
Also, an additional note, I want to add that I’m going to have a very detailed look at the running game as a whole on Wednesday. I’ll incorporate some of the things Nico detailed here, as well as a closer look at personnel, and exactly what Arkansas did to slow us down.
by outsidethesidelines on Sep 28, 2009 7:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
can't wait for your article
I was just thinking it would be cool to see a break down of what went wrong. I re-watched some of the game and thought that they had stacked the box more, but I saw multiple times where they were in base 4-3 and there was no where to run along with line penetration.
by ICANHASCHEEZBURGER on Sep 29, 2009 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for keeping this up
not an avid poster but I really appreciate the time you put in for this and other “outsiders” type articles…unfortunately the numbers don’t lie and this doesn’t get you excited…if Saban et al ever never fodder to simmer down expectations — here it is…
"That's the paradox of success. The moment you stop to enjoy it, you are in trouble. You have to keep moving forward. It's not what you have done that's important. It's where you are going."
— Nick Saban
by DJackson on Sep 28, 2009 7:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to try to get the VT numbers...
…up tomorrow as well as include a side by side breakdown of the individual and team numbers for each game, etc. I’ve had a lot on my plate the last week or two, but am almost caught up.
by Nico2.0 on Sep 28, 2009 7:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
this is depressing...
the numbers do not lie…but this was one game, people. Arky was hell bent on stopping our run, so bama just killed them with the pass…something we could not do this year.
let that be a lesson to our next opponent. sure, stack the box with eight or twenty helments for all i care. GMAC and Co. will make you pay.
how would you prefer your blowout…rush or pass-tic?
Tigers Hide and rooooll that TIDE!
by JiggaTide on Sep 28, 2009 8:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
a lil smack...
good for the soul.
Tigers Hide and rooooll that TIDE!
by JiggaTide on Sep 28, 2009 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I noticed we were getting them pretty bad on screens.
Also, I have a feeling that the wildcat will be another option if our power running game isn’t producing and we can’t throw at will like we did this weekend.
What you're seeing is team spirit. It's like the Holy Spirit, but more powerful.
-Hank Hill
by Zoltar on Sep 28, 2009 8:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We threw the screen pass...
…on pretty much every 3rd and long and almost always made it. That Arkansas defense never caught on. I doubt we’ll be able to do that as much against a more competent defense, but there’s no problem with doing it until somebody figures it out. Then we’ll beat them deep.
by crimsontsunami on Sep 28, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
great analysis
This post is reason #547 why RBR is essential reading for any Bama fan for a true understanding of the Tide.
That being said—don’t overly handicap us, Nico. “Take [Trent’s] carry away and his numbers are just as bad as everyone else’s,” you write—and that’s true, but if we play that game, then Mississippi State beat LSU last weekend, and we didn’t beat LSU last year in overtime because Rashad didn’t make that interception, and hey also Penn State beat us in 1979, because they broke through the goal line.
Sometimes one (outstanding, statistically aberrant) play can skew a whole performance in a massive fashion. That’s why football—arguably unlike pro baseball—isn’t purely a game of statistics. There’s a butterfly effect, a monkey-wrench, heck, I dunno, some sort of Dr. Sam Beckett ricochet thang. Statistically, yes—please note that your numbers are skewed by an extreme performance, but don’t dismiss the ultimate play itself. Football is a game that is oftentimes ruled by extremities.
For instance, as OTS has labored to show over the past year, the generally accepted trope of “more penalities equal more losses” isn’t necessarily true in any quantitative way (which I keep telling the reptile part of my head). Similarly, we can’t discount every big play to achieve a rational statistical understanding—because there isn’t such a creature.
I suppose what I’m advocating is allowing these posts to serve as tools, or insights, but not definitions.
Incredibly useful tools and insights, to be very clear. The raw numbers surprised and disappointed me, since as a fan I grunt through the 3-yard scrums and whoop and holler at the big breakouts.
Let me add, though, that I think in many cases our statistics are wrecked by extremely conservative second half and fourth-quarter play. Until we’re forced to perform an entire game—which hasn’t quite happened yet—these numbers will be misleading, as sometimes our running backs are called upon just to crunch up on the line and burn another twenty seconds.
Viva Nico!
Never quit. It is the easiest cop-out in the world.
by gorjus on Sep 28, 2009 10:13 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
I know what you're saying...
…and I agree. We never intend these snapshots to be perfect measures of success, but just an attempt at trying to look deeper and at a more complete picture. It’s like OTS talking about the wildcat serving the purpose of keeping the VaTech defense honest even though it didn’t achieve much statistically on its own. Furthermore, in the first post of this type this season I made the “20 rushes for 100 yard example” of one 81 yard rush and 19 1 yard rushes. That 81 yarder can be the game changer, but it can also be an outlier that unfairly skews results anyd might not achieve much of anything. Basically, everything is contextually dependent. A 2 yard carry for a TD is wild success a 2 yard rush for a first down a success and a 2 yard rush on 3rd and 5 doesn’t get much accomplished. All two yards aren’t the same, and two yard success can be of different values.
I completely agree with this:
Sometimes one (outstanding, statistically aberrant) play can skew a whole performance in a massive fashion.
I think we’re on the same page in this discussion, just saying it different ways. I’m not a purely quantitative analysis guy, nor a purely qualitative guy. I see the merits of both.
by Nico2.0 on Sep 28, 2009 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your point is dead on
when talking about the win/loss figures, but the purpose of this type of thing is to understand where the team is with regard to the running game as a whole. When we play small D-lines, the running game can’t be beat, but when we face a D-line that is true SEC caliber, yes, we may break a few big runs, but we can’t really game plan to run 65% of the time either. And, ironically enough, breakdowns like this actually help me enjoy the big breaks more – if I understand that when we face Tennessee, for example, that we should not have a big day on the ground due to size differences, etc., and we bust a huge play on them, I’m twice as pumped knowing that somebody really did their job right on the play (and someone on the other side did something horribly wrong – i.e. Trent’s TD run last game). Great points all around, and thanks, Nico and gorjus for the posts.
I bleed crimson and white...I puke Vol puke orange. RTR
by SugarBowl93 on Sep 28, 2009 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
could a lack of
running offense be due to the fact that Arkansas rushed 5-7 defenders on almost every down? I don’t know specific numbers but I rewatched the game last night and they seemed to be blitzing and shooting the gaps on most plays. I think Arky had to pick their poison and either allow us to run the ball or throw it deep. A few more games with G Mac hitting wideouts deep and you will start to see teams ease up in the box. I am not overly impressed with this offense but its the best we’ve had in a long time (we all know where our d stands).
by lbdasdog on Sep 29, 2009 12:04 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I think OTS will cover this more later with his post...
…but I did mean to mention that bad numbers can be due to a variety of factors (or a combo), for instance:
a) bad running
b) bad run blocking
c) defense stacking the box
etc.
by Nico2.0 on Sep 29, 2009 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the impression I got
I think Ark knew they couldn’t stop both the run and the pass, so chose to stop the run thinking a few big plays might allow them to pull off an upset. A truly great running offense would be successful despite this, but the Tide is not a truly great running team.
The onus was on G Mac to have an outstanding game, which he did. I think we’ll see a similar game plan going forward, with teams stacking the box and hoping that Mac throws up a stinker sooner or later. It’s what I would do.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
by NJBammer on Sep 29, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is one of the best features of the site....
Is there a link to the genesis of it?
If it were up to me, I'd blitz on offense too.
by The Heffalump on Sep 29, 2009 1:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's...
…the genesis.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Sep 29, 2009 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
sorry...
that’s after collins went solo. this is genesis. or, if you want to go all the way back to the begining, this is genesis.
by kleph on Sep 29, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that a Phil-roll?
Never quit. It is the easiest cop-out in the world.
by gorjus on Sep 29, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Geez...
…another AM posting goof-up today. I thought I was posting ‘Land of Confusion’…which fits with my day…life….
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Sep 29, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here...
…it is, by the way.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Sep 29, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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