Comparing the two QBs: stats

So, the meme going around is that Colt McCoy is a vastly superior QB to Greg McElroy.  That's what I've seen several BON posters hang their BCSMNC hopes on.  I have to ask... based on what?

Based on yardage? Texas throws more and runs less than Bama, of course McCoy has more yards. How about a stat that's normalized to number of attempts, like, say, passer rating? McCoy 147, McElroy 142. That's not a vast difference. Tebow is 155, BTW - or was before Cincinnati. McElroy has also had four games in which his passing efficiency was better than ANY game McCoy had, and that includes facing the #1 defense in the country (UF) - McElroy put up numbers equating to a passer rating of 196. McCoy's highest rating for any game this season was 191 against Kansas - the 66th-best pass defense in the country. Vastly superior? I guess if you like intangibles, sure.

McCoy faced teams with passer rating defense ranked at an average of 54th in the country. The two best passing defenses he faced, by opponent average passer rating against (OAPRA for short), were the #3 and #10 teams (next best was 28th); those were his worst games of the season and Texas' closest wins. McElroy faced teams which averaged 38th in OAPRA, including the #5, #6, #8, and #15 teams; McElroy's two (three) worst games of the season were in his three game slump in the middle of the season and two of them were admittedly against the aforementioned #8 and #15 teams, but only one of those three games was closer than two touchdowns. McCoy averaged a passer rating 25 points or 19% better than the OAPRA; McElroy averaged 34 points or 29% better than OAPRA. In other words, opposing defenses did better at holding McCoy in check than they did holding McElroy in check, despite the fact that McElroy was facing statistically better passing defenses. I guess that's one of the benefits of having a great ground game to complement your passing attack and keep the defenses honest. "But what about Auburn?" Yes, they stopped our Heisman trophy winner. McElroy had a passer rating of 148 against them. Go ahead, load the box against Mark Ingram. Trent Richardson had 9 ypc in that game, too.

Now, clearly McElroy hasn't ever been invited to NYC for the Heisman ceremony, so there's some definite intangible action going on... but based on stats, McElroy does more when he does pass. McCoy throws a TD every 17.3 passes and GMac only every 18.5 passes... but GMac throws 4.25 TDs for every INT, and McCoy throws only 2.25 TDs for every INT. Put another way, McCoy throws INT's literally twice as often as GMac, but throws TDs only about 6% more often. That doesn't sound vastly superior to me. But can McElroy win the big game? Ask Auburn. Ask Florida. Now ask the same to Oklahoma and Nebraska about McCoy.

I believe that a great many people (including many hard-core Bama fans) underestimate Greg McElroy. McCoy is a great QB, no doubt, and IMHO deserved the Heisman over Bradford... but Alabama faced three QBs with better passer ratings than McCoy this year and one of those guys even threw for more yards for the season and they ALL threw fewer INTs than McCoy; Alabama shut all of them down. Tebow was held 44 points below his #1 ranked passer rating, or 75% of his season average; the other two more than 75 points lower and 55% or less of their season passer rating. I'm talking SHUT DOWN. The 'Horns had better HOPE that McCoy is really that much better than the other guys in a way that stats don't show, or it'll be a long night for them - I suspect the chances of Bama running all over Texas are much greater than the chances of Texas running on Bama. Even if you assume that the #1 and #2 rushing defenses are roughly equivalent (despite the opponent's relative levels of rushing prowess being decidely NON-equivalent), Alabama at least has a rushing attack to take the heat off of the passing game. Texas, not so much. So Texas will HAVE to have a great game from McCoy, and statistically that's not as likely.

Let's talk consistency: GMac's worst games came three in a row, and arguably were due to growing into the job (and an inexplicable insistence by the OC of throwing to Julio Jones in the red zone when Ingram was right there).  Against good teams, he was great in the beginning of the season, bad in the middle, and fabulous at the end. Not as consistent as a Bama fan would like, but somewhat understandable. McCoy? Against great teams, he was VERY consistent.  Consistently bad, that is.  And Bama has a great pass defense.  I'm just sayin'.

If the game outcome depends on who can run successfully, you unquestionably give the edge to Bama.  If it depends on a QB playing big against a great defense, it's not as lopsided - but I think the advantage is surprisingly Bama's as well.

Apologies if this seems a bit scattered; I've been looking at the two QBs' passer stats for a couple of weeks, but haven't worked so much on coherent presentation.