Alabama By the Numbers: The Kids Are Alright
by kleph on Oct 5, 2010 10:00 AM CDT
in Football
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Following Alabama's 2009 National Championship run, the Crimson Tide saw an epic amount of attrition due to graduation and the NFL Draft. The conventional wisdom going into the 2010 season was that a defense returning just two starters would lag behind as the young players got up to speed and gelled as a unit. The offense, widely expected to be phenomenal due to the return of Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram and Julio Jones, would have to carry the load till then.
Five weeks into the season has Alabama still undefeated and at No. 1 in the polls. So everything is going as planned, right? Well not exactly, but you won't hear us complaining.
Alabama's offense certainly has taken a substantial step forward. It is racking up an average of 37.8 points per game -- the best in the SEC, good enough 16th nationally and almost two field goals better than last year's figure. But as good as the offense has been, the young defense is even better. Right now the Tide boast the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation allowing allowing just nine points per game -- more than a point less than the number two team in the land, Iowa.
You might have noticed Alabama has scored a hell of a lot this season but what is really amazing is how fast they are in doing it. Here's the cumulative breakdown of scoring in each game this season by period (Table 1).
Thus far in 2010, Alabama is scoring a whopping two thirds of its points in the first half of each game. Last year the Crimson Tide scored only 54% of its points in the first 30 minutes of play. Bottom line: Alabama has been taking the lead resoundingly and then grinding out the clock the rest of the way.
Opposing offenses are getting their licks in early as well with 80% of their points coming before the bands take the field. But those attacks have been anemic at best and peter off to nonexistent after the intermission. No team this season has been able to find the Alabama end zone in the second half of play.
Given the dominance on the scoreboard this season, one would expect a vast difference in the yards accumulated by Alabama's offense versus yards the defense allowed. That's not quite the case (Table 2):
Things start as you expect in the first three games but have changed dramatically with the onset of conference play. The Crimson Tide's offensive yardage was dead even with Arkansas and Florida actually had eight more yards of offense than Alabama last Saturday.
This would seem to suggest the Alabama passing game has been speeding things up but, instead, there doesn't seem to be a wide disparity in production of one unit over the other when looked at in context. Alabama is currently rolling up an average of 464 yards per game, good enough for 20th in the nation. And the defense is permitting 292.4 yards per game, putting them 20th in the country as well.
Coach Saban has long stressed third down defense as a key for the team's success and its a nice spot to break down what is happening here (Table 3).
On offense the jump in productivity isn't tough to miss. Alabama is currently 19th in the nation for third down conversions (48.98%) which stands in stark contrast from last year when the Crimson Tide finished 62nd in the country (39.18%). The result is Alabama is now No. 3 in the SEC in Passing Offense, Rushing Offense and Total Offense and placing quite well in each of those categories nationally.
On the other side of the ball it seems to be the same story. Currently the Tide is permitting just more than 26% of third down attempts, putting them 5th in the country. That's actually an improvement over the 29.90% (58 for 194) that earned last year's squad the rank of 7th in the nation.
So what is the factor pushing the Alabama defense into this kind of dominance? How are they keeping other teams off the scoreboard at a level that matches the offense's putting points on it? Sometimes a picture tells you more than any chart or graph...
Last year Alabama posted a ridiculous +19 turnover margin, fourth best in the nation and a number quite a few folks decried as unsustainable and likely to come crashing back down to earth this season. Hasn't happened. According to the NCAA, Alabama is currently 8th in the nation for turnover margin with a stout +7. Moreover, the +1.4 per game is eerily close to the +1.36 from 2009.
And the reasons why are pretty much the same as last year.
Greg McElroy has thrown just three interceptions this season, which is disappointing only in comparison with last season when he had a whopping total of four. And the Crimson Tide continues its stingy ways in terms of lost fumbles. The school says there have been two lost and the NCAA says it's three. Other sources put the number at four. But no matter how you count 'em, you can do it on one hand.
Long drives and a surfeit third down conversion matter little when they are killed by a turnover and the Crimson Tide defense has specialized in providing them. The two fumbles recovered by the Tide put Alabama almost exactly on the national average but the interceptions remain this squad's stock in trade. Currently, Alabama is tied for 2nd in the country in total interceptions and 3rd in picks per contest.
While the young secondary was our number one off-season concern, the fact is these kids have produced. Robert Lester is tied for first in the nation with four picks and Dre Kirkpatrick's three isn't anything to sneeze at either. Coach Saban says they need better discipline and must focus on not giving up big plays, but it's clear they are working to reach their vast potential.
Nowhere is all of this more evident than Alabama's red zone defense which stands at No. 3 in the land in terms of efficiency (57.14 score percentage). And that's part of the plan. As Coach Saban explained it on Monday:
"When the field shrinks and you play pass defense in the red zone, you don’t have the vertical separation in the field like you have when the ball is out in the field. Everything gets condensed, the area for the quarterback to throw gets condensed... They have more people in a lot less space and we’ve done a pretty good job of executing what we do."
Opposing offenses have gotten within the Alabama 20-year-line this season on 14 occasions and only twice have they finished the trip to the end zone. On six other occasions they settled for a field goal. The rest of the times, the offense saw very very bad things happen: three interceptions, two lost fumbles and one loss of the ball on downs. All just the way Coach Saban likes it.
Tables and Statistics
Table 1: Points Per Quarter
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Table 2: Total Yards of Offense
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Table 3: Third Down Conversion Percentage (Conversions / Attempts)
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Sources
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Comments
And all of this with
a very respectable Strength of Schedule to boot (I forgot what it is exactly, and am too lazy to look it up). The point is, we aren’t Boise, putting up mad numbers while playing nobody – we’re playing extremely respectable competition and have numbers comparable to last year’s national championship winners. This makes me feel great about the rest of the year! Nice work, Kleph.
"Let's go be champions, boys!" - Greg McElroy
(Formerly SugarBowl93)
by RememberTheRoseBowl on Oct 5, 2010 10:13 AM CDT reply actions
Good Point
According to Sagarin, our strength of schedule currently sits at 26th, with one victory over a top 10 opponent, Florida ranked at 4th.
Not to nit pick Kleph, this is some great stuff you put together. But being an engineer and the son of an engineer
numbers are my thing. Table 3 has Bama vs Arky with 57% or 8-14. Then Bama vs Florida with 44% also 8-14. I’m sure it’s a type-O. But really this is your best work to date IMO
Hold my beer and watch this.
fixed
actually, i appreciate this scrutiny. when i’m dealing with so many stats and figures i’m always concerned about little errors that might greatly skew the conclusions. you guys back checking my work helps a lot.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
Very well done. The numbers are validating my gut feelings about this team.
The Process is working. To paraphrase GMac; We see this as more of a reloading year than a rebuilding year.
As long as the players stay hungry and healthy, the sky’s the limit.
You don't know what it does to me
My Crimson sane intensity.
Graphs are pretty
Darn good writeup. I figured that our team was awesome but it is great to have graphs to back it up. If somoeone challenges me on Bama’s greatness I can go Ross Perot on their ass.
Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. 'Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is. - Josey Wales
You're a billionaire with big ears???
Who woulda thunk it?
"Let's go be champions, boys!" - Greg McElroy
(Formerly SugarBowl93)
by RememberTheRoseBowl on Oct 5, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is the stuff that turns friends of opposing teams into frenemies
Nice work.
"It's not the size of the cat in the fight, it's size of the fight in the cat"
one point i had in the original draft but couldn't make fit the narrative...
is the number of first downs thus far this season. like a lot of the offensive statistics, it seems pretty lackluster given the dominance of the unit. i took it out of the story when i realized explaining it would have taken up far too much space. but here’s the graph and copy for you guys to comment on…
Currently, Alabama is averaging 23 first downs a game, good enough for 19th in the nation and nicely over last year’s 20.6 average that finished 41st in the nation. In another interesting bit of offensive and defensive symmetry, Alabama is also 19th in the nation in opponent first downs as well, allowing an average of 15.6 a game. Last season the Tide was second in the country in the category allowing an average of just 13.4 first downs a game.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
Kleph, another stat to . . .
. . . throw into the mix to contrast last year’s team with this one is time of possession:
SJSU 29:18 Bama 30:42
PSU 30:33 Bama 29:27
Duke 33:00 Bama 27:00
Arky 26:08 Bama 33:52
Fla 32:50 Bama 27:10
Of course, each game has a different story. But notice how our closest game is the one in which we have the most TOP. I think one factor is the ability of our offense to score quickly or to sustain a long, secure drive depending on what is needed at the time. Last year, our defense had to get it done with the defense could not. Not the case this year.
dang - correction
Our defense had to get it done when the offense could not. Not the case this year.
i also considered including that data
but it seemed redundant given the points information and the third down stats. here’s the graphic anyway, though.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
how is there a discrepancy in lost fumbles?
Going from memory, we have lost three: Lacey’s pair in the red zone and Dre’s recovery that was subsequently lost against PSU. GMac and Trent each fumbled in Arky and UF but those were recovered.
Nice write-up kleph!
"Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen." - Sir Winston Churchill
by twominutedrill on Oct 5, 2010 1:13 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I think maybe there was some discrepancy on whether we fumbled once or twice on that PSU play,
although that count for more than 1 lost fumble either way.
If I'm wearing a turban, it means Auburn is playing Iraq.
yes.
the alabama stats, the ncaa figures and the cfbstats numbers all disagree.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
This was very very good work.
Thank you
"Orators are most vehement when their cause is weak" Marcus Tullius Cicero
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 5, 2010 1:37 PM CDT reply actions
Awesome read....
Were both of Lacy’s fumbles in the red zone? I thought one was….the first game.
Bama's Pluck and Grit have Writ Her Name in Crimson Flame
I believe one was goal line SJSU and one was redzone against Duke....
looking at the stats above there’s a trend. Bama comes out really pissed in the first and second quarters. Then after imposing their will they have mercy in the third and fourth. Who says we don’t have a heart? Excluding Arkansas Bama has owned each opponent before the half. Then in the second half closing the playbook and grinding out the clock. This type of play skews the numbers a bit. Saban the merciful.
Hold my beer and watch this.
Human nature really, to let off when you can see that your opponent is whipped, to
“let off the gas”.
Bama's Pluck and Grit have Writ Her Name in Crimson Flame
by TideFanAtlanta on Oct 5, 2010 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
That, and lots of meaningful play time by backups.
It will be helpful next year.
by Steven Mitchell on Oct 5, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly.
It’s good to let Saban bark at the third string so they get used to it.
You don't know what it does to me
My Crimson sane intensity.
But killshots on hated rivals are sure satisfying.
You don't know what it does to me
My Crimson sane intensity.
He turned it sideways!
"The North isn't a place. It's just a direction out of the South."
--Roy Blount, Jr.
by animalcracker on Oct 5, 2010 8:26 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
over at team speed kills
they’ve got a great piece looking at alabama’s red zone defense.
Alabama keeps the other offense off the board a surprising 42.9 percent of the time, good for third in the nation, but that’s only part of the story. When opponents get inside the 20, the Tide holds them to less than a touchdown 85.7 percent of the time.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
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