This is an update to Pete Holiday's comparison of our schedule to Boise State's schedule, using the Sagarin predictor ratings found in the rightmost column here. I believe (based on hearsay here on RBR) that Sagarin's ratings are still a couple of weeks away from not using the pre-season predictions anymore. But they are starting to take shape.
So here's the list:
1 . Florida (#4) -- Virginia Tech (#14)
2 . LSU (#9) -- Nevada (#23)
3 . Auburn (#19) -- Oregon State (#31)
4 . Arkansas (#20) -- Fresno State (#49)
5 . South Carolina (#22) -- Idaho (#69)
6 . Penn State (#32) -- Hawaii (#72)
7 . Mississippi State (#47) -- Toledo (#96)
8 . Tennessee (#48) -- Utah State (#99)
9 . Ole Miss (#70) -- Wyoming (#106)
10 . Duke (#98) -- Louisiana Tech (#113)
11 . San Jose State (#139) -- San Jose State (#139)
12 . Georgia State (#229) -- New Mexico State (#174)
Since Week 2, Virginia Tech has managed to start winning and climb back up in the rankings 24 spots, while Fresno State has dropped 25. Nevada has also climbed 14 spots, and Toledo has improved by a whopping 34 spots all the way up to #96. On our side of the ledger, South Carolina dropped 15 spots and AU climbed 14. Here are the stats:
• Average Opponent: 61.42 (Bama) -- 82.08 (BS)
• Trimmed mean (dropping the highest and lowest from each): 50.4 (Bama) -- 79.7 (BS)
No huge changes from Week 2. Our average opponent dropped 1.5, while BSU's went up by 0.59. Again the difference between our schedules is larger when you look at the trimmed mean because, as Pete pointed out, Ga State kills our SOS. But the bulk of our schedule is significantly tougher than BSU's, outside of that 1 extreme.
Overall, BSU's opponents have been performing as well as they could've prayed for (after the VT loss to James Madison). And so far this season, the SEC hasn't helped our SOS as much as we usually expect. But the comparison is still easily in our favor.
(Pete, I'll let you make any edits or additions you want. Just let me know.)