If the Big 12 were to lose only Missouri, I'm hearing the Big 12 would go hard after the SEC's Arkansas, which might be willing to listen. Texas will never leave for a destination without Texas A&M, and should more than two schools leave the Big 12 for other conferences, I'm convinced the Longhorns and Aggies would work toward joining the SEC or perhaps try a far-flung, Pac-10 arrangement of 16 teams, with the two schools from Texas and Arizona and maybe Texas Tech making up a South Division.
Austin American-Statesman: Nine things and one crazy prediction
A few quick points on this:
(1) Don't kid yourselves, Arkansas may very well leave the SEC. The Hogs won't make as much money by joining the Big XII (no argument there), but they do fit better in the Big XII in terms of both geography and tradition. Furthermore, Arkansas would probably welcome a change of scenery to increase their chances of winning a title. With all due respect to the Hogs, if their almost twenty-year involvement with the SEC has shown us anything, it's that Arkansas cannot win it.
(2) The SEC would have no problem whatsoever replacing Arkansas. We probably couldn't get anyone who would fit in nicely in geographic terms in the West, but finding a comparable program to Arkansas as a replacement would be a relative breeze.
(3) Don't think the Hogs are necessarily gone to the Big XII just yet. Keep in mind this assumes that only one current Big XII member leaves for the expanded Big Ten, and it looks possible that you may have two. If that happens, Arkansas will stay put in the SEC, and the Big XII may very well implode as a conference with the powers of the Big XII South going to either the SEC or the Pac-10. That sounds crazy as hell, admittedly, but it's a very legitimate possibility at this stage.
(4) As I suspected (due to the in-state political structure, if nothing else), Texas and Texas A&M are a package deal. Wherever one goes, the other will follow. If the Big XII indeed does collapse, this has huge implications for the two Oklahoma schools. Both the Pac-10 and SEC would likely take Texas and Texas A&M, but taking Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in addition would be another ball of wax entirely. Perhaps one pair goes west, the other goes east, and maybe they all stay in the Big XII, but even so the Texas / Texas A&M package deal could play a huge role in how expansion plays out.
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But the SEC
would lose the great football tradition that is Arkansas football!!! How can we seriously replace the eons of rivalry which have grown up around that program?
Maybe with Tulane?
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
In all seriousness...
… Clemson, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Florida State, and (to a lesser extent) Virginia Tech would all be suitable replacements, and frankly I imagine that all four of those schools would jump at the chance, and the fifth (FSU) would probably come over to the Dark Side if we really wooed them (though you can bet ’Bama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee will raise pure hell if the SEC tries to bring in FSU).
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Think about it...
Florida State has struggled recently and is facing NCAA sanctions. Yet they remain a potentially incredibly powerful program. Joining the SEC would give them a massive influx of fresh cash and a shot in the arm.
And think about ’Bama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn… all of which recruit the state of Florida (particularly the northern and central portions that FSU targets)… get my point now?
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I asked a FSU grad/fan for his thoughts on joining the SEC
and he said that he didn’t see it because it wouldn’t work favorably for their basketball program and other sports. I laughed in his face.
by bumblebeetuna on May 3, 2010 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Yea why?
I don’t remember anything in my brief 33 years about hating FSU. Other than they are a Johnny-Come-Lately
SEC West becomes armageddon
Alabama
Auburn
Ole Miss
Miss St
Oklahoma
Ok. St
Texas
Texas A&M
That’s an eight team super conference right there. I know I’m leaving out LSU, but someone has to go east and I wouldn’t want little brother down to the south to escape our yearly grasp.
I don’t necessarily like bringing OSU over nor moving LSU, but I have a feeling SEC fans are going to have to take a deep breath and wait out the impending flood of movement coming.
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
Another Possibility
Move Bama and Auburn to the east and have Vandy move to the West, then include LSU in the west. That would keep all natural rivalries available.
Right...
… LSU will have to stay in the West, period. No questions about it, LSU, Texas, and Texas would form the backbone of the newly revamped SEC West.
The more likely re-shuffle would have one of either ’Bama or Auburn going to the East. Realistically, if both Texas and Texas A&M join, they will have to go in the West and that will mean some current West team will have to move over to the East just because the West will be so damn strong relative to the East — seriously, ’Bama, LSU, Texas, Texas A&M, and Auburn in the same division? Suicide — and ’Bama / Auburn would be the ones getting moved over (I figure both moving is unlikely).
Also, don’t think that would necessarily eliminate traditional rivalry games. If the SEC expands to 14 (much less 16) teams, you will likely see the conference schedule expanded to nine games and thus you could add a second permanent inter-divisional opponent. For example, ’Bama could move to the East, Auburn and LSU could stay in the West, and we could still play them every year (while maintaining Auburn v. UGA and LSU v. Florida).
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't see how
you can put Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, AND Mississippi State all in the West and move LSU to the East. If there’s to be ANY geographic component to the division, LSU HAS to be in the West.
University of Tennessee : Where Schadenfreude Happens
It was placed that way due to the other pods and thier rivalries...
…while keeping the Iron Bowl in the forefront and regressing the LSU/Ole Miss game to a lower placement in the tradition pecking order.
Yes, geographically it makes sense for Bama/Barn to move, but the implications for the Iron Bowl was too much for me to type out.
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
by AlabamaJammer on May 3, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Again, though, you don't have to have those implications...
… just because with expansion you will likely see an additional conference game added. Teams would add an additional permanent opponent in the inter-divisional schedule to fill out the slate. That would allow for a team like ’Bama or Auburn to switch divisions while maintaining all existing rivalries.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
…was about to address that but on your point, but it’s a situation I did not think of as I was just fixated on the division shake-out. Not only that, if it only was one fixed tradition game a year we’d keep the boogs and UT is a division rival. After that I don’t give five monkey’s butts what happens to LSU/MSU/OM.
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
by AlabamaJammer on May 3, 2010 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe, maybe not
I think the logical solution would be to move Auburn to the East and leave Alabama in the West. The Iron bowl can be the rivalry game obviously, and Auburn will play Georgia every year anyway. Yes, this would cut out one basketball game a year and probably affect other sports a bit, but other than Bama07, does anyone really care?
I care and so do the two administrations
The Alabama/Auburn rivalry is important for every sport at the university. There is NO WAY that both universities end up in separate divisions. It ain’t goin’ to happen!
by M. Johnson Defender on May 3, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Not necessarily...
… again, if you’re expanding the conference this much, the conference schedule will have to expand in not just football but practically all sports.
I’m sure we could still get the additional game in with basketball, baseball, etc.
And honestly, if we can’t, that’s not going to be a major tripping point. That’s not where the money is, and that is not what is being considered. Any ill effects in that area will merely be the unpleasant side effects of football-driven expansion.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Being in separate divisions
hasn’t hurt our rivalry with Tennessee much. I don’t see why it would be any different with Auburn, and frankly, if I had to choose which team I’d like more meaningful games played with (i.e. potentially destroying division title hopes), it would be the Vols. They’ve got more tradition, a better program traditionally, and as much as it would hurt to see us lose to them in division play, it will be that much more sweet when we win…and we will win more than we lose!
"Let's go be champions, boys!" - Greg McElroy
(Formerly SugarBowl93)
by RememberTheRoseBowl on May 4, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
My Thoughts On SEC Expansion
This is a Bama fans perspective on what schools I would want to come on if the SEC did in fact expand or lose a member or two. My primary consideration is natural rivalries and geographic location primarily due to traveling to games (road trips!).
Level I – Must have for expansion or replacements
FSU – Can’t get a better fit for the SEC in terms of rivalry, program strength and location except for…
GT – Can’t be more geographically centered in the SEC, they are in our fight song, long history with the SEC.
Level II – Suitable additions
Clemson – Natural rival with a program yes but if we had to get rid of a school or two USCe is probably in the top 2 or 3. Nice geographic fit but I am not crazy about a road trip there.
Level III – Take em or leave em
VT/UNC
Either of these schools would be decent addtions with proximity but lack real history with the SEC. Doubt UNC would come due to the basketball centered thinking but would be pretty interesting.
Memphis and/or Southern Miss – I would rather have either of these programs than any program in Texas or OK. We don’t have to add all top end schools, the SEC is brutal enough as it is. Adding Texas or some other top school that doens’t fit doesn’t make sense other than TV markets.
Miami – too far away but having the big three in FL in the same division would be awesome. Not a bad place to visit in November.
I am totally against adding any Texas or OK schools. I would stop watching SEC football because I think that would just ruin it…okay maybe not but don’t like it. Adding Texas makes as much sense as adding Michigan or ND.
SEC could become a 4 division super conference
Best case scenario is that we pickup Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 and Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech and Clemson from the ACC. We then create a 4 division conference as follows:
West
Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas
Central
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
North
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Clemson
South
Florida, Florida State, Miami, Georgia, Georgia Tech
We then have a 4 team playoff for SEC champ with the winner most likely going to the National Championship game.
That actually works pretty good
Would have to maintain some rivalry games every year and play 9 conference games with some sort of rotation.
Wonder what happens to the ACC basketball remainding teams?
The four divisions won't work...
… not at least how you have them currently constructed. In that scenario the West, Central, and North would be ungodly strong, and the North would be on about the level of the current Big East. Something would have to give to even things out a bit.
Furthermore, just as a practical consideration, a four team intra-conference playoff to determine the champion just is not happening. That’s not even on the radar screen of ideas.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't disagree about the idea not being on the radar screen
but it could work and they look at least somewhat balanced with each division having 2 reasonably strong teams.
North has Tennessee and Clemson. I am sure Georgia would volunteer to switch to the North in place of SC.
Well, The SEC North would be a very weak football conference based on the current coaches/teams, but would be a very strong basketball division. Also, don’t underestimate Clemson and South Carolina ramping up their programs and recruiting abilities with a chance at winning the division and making the playoffs each year.
The 4 team playoff would give the SEC a tremendous amount of cash and interest, supplanting the slow movement of the NCAA towards a playoff system. As all of the other major divisions take on a single championship game, we would one-up them again with a true playoff system.
I see this working if all the conferences moved to this structure at the same time. A four team playoff would probably increase the chances of the winner coming out with a loss or two.
having 2 losses probably won’t matter any more than win/loss records affect the basketball playoffs. The incredible strength of the SEC, and (I anticipate) our ability to own the National Championship game will make the winner of the playoffs as close to an automatic selection to the NC game as one can get.
Well, The SEC North would be a very weak football conference based on the current coaches/teams, but would be a very strong basketball division.
You’re definitely right in that regard, but I can guarantee you right now the combined amount of time given to the subject of basketball with regard to the impact of expansion will be somewhere in the neighborhood of about three minutes.
Rest assured, expansion is all about football, and that’s what this will be shaped around.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I keep seeing people talk about doing this,
and I just scratch my head. There’s no rule allowing the SEC to have a four team playoff. The reason we have two divisions is because there was already a rule allowing a championship game. This simply will not happen. (i.e. would require a rule change by the NCAA, and there’s no way the presidents are voting for that given their reluctance to do anything about the post-season)
There’s no rule allowing the SEC to have a four team playoff.
Correct. And until the NCAA explicitly passes a rule to allow it, nothing along these lines will happen. And for now, no one is even pushing for it.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I thought I heard someone say...
Louisville as a possible pickup. So if Arkansas leaves for the Big XII and we pick up Louisville, who would go to the West? Vandy?
I don't know how UT fan would like that idea.
Do they care about playing Bama each year to tell their nerdy cousins to the west to buzz off on the rivalry game?
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
by AlabamaJammer on May 3, 2010 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
If we swapped Arky for UofL in the west...
…the only thing that has to change are the permanent opponents. UK would play UofL every year, and SC would have to swap and play Mississippi State instead of Arkansas every year.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
I mentioned that a few days back...
… but I would be shocked if it came to pass. We would really have to whiff on a lot of schools for us to get to Louisville, and I don’t think it will come to that.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions
If we must expand
we might as well go to 16. If we go to 14 it is just a matter of time until we go to 16 anyway. And we could get the best 4 new schools at one time.
Personally I’d like to stay with 12 but I just think it is going to happen,
But I do think the best 16 alingment would be to have Texas & T. AM, OU and OSU join the West and them move Bama and Auburn to the East.
The only team in that shift that would really qualify as a traditional rivalry for Bama would be…MSU. And to be honest, who cares? We need to play Tenn & Auburn every year and besides those two it does not matter. We have had long strentches where we didn’t even play LSU. For example we didn’t play them at all from 59-63 and from 31-42 we didn’t play them at all. I’d much rather get a thing going with UGA and let LSU be an every 6 year thing.
By the way— 4 divisions of 4 will not happen.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
If we go to 16, the more likely scenerio is 2 sub conferences of 8. Then we play 7 conference games and 5 non-conference games. No east/west playing. Then, there is a 1 game playoff to determine who is the SEC winner.
That, or 16 team conf with 7 intradivision games and 1 floating game with the opposite side.
Why would Arkansas flee to the sinking ship?
Most of the expansion scenarios have the Big 10, SEC, and maybe Pac 10 raiding other conferences and the Big 12, ACC, and Big East taking hits.
Why would Arkansas go to the Big 12 when Missouri, Nebraska, A&M, Colorado, and the bell cow Texas might be leaving? Arkansas’ traditional Southwest Conference rivals were Texas and A&M, so if those two leave the Big 12 as a package deal, Arkansas really won’t have that much in common with the Big 12, Big 10, Big #? it joins.
If the Big 10 pushes ahead with expansion, then the Big 10, SEC, and possibly Pac 10 will be looking to raid the Big 12, making the conference resemble the decrepit, collapsing Southwest Conference that Arkansas left the SEC for 18 years ago.
"Don't let the bastards get you down." - Nick Faldo to Greg Norman at the conclusion of the 1996 Masters.
I agree
And furthermore, even if Texas stays I don’t think the presence of Texas is enough of an incentive. The Big 12 (with Texas) made less money than the SEC. Why would Arkansas move to a conference that makes less money?
by M. Johnson Defender on May 3, 2010 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions
You're right, IF...
Re-read my original post and notice that I explicitly say that if the Big XII implodes, Arkansas will stay in the SEC.
The key is going to be how many teams leave the Big XII. If it’s just one team, that’s no problem whatsoever. They can plug and play a team like Arkansas and go on about their business without even a minor hiccup (hell, a Missouri-for-Arkansas trade would be a net positive for them).
But you’re right, though, if more than one team leaves. If two teams or more leave the Big XII, then that conference is going to the graveyard right alongside the SWC and the Big Eight.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 3, 2010 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Totally agree
If two team leave the Big 12 as in Nebraska goes with Missouri, or if Col. goes to the Pac 10 at the same time Mo leaves, then Arky would stay and we could likely get Texas, A&M, and any one else we want like OU, OSU, or even TTech.
It looks to me like Missouri is basically gone. The Big 12 could really be in trouble.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
I can appreciate that the Big XII would take Arky . . .
but what incentive does Arky have to leave the SEC?
by M. Johnson Defender on May 4, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
+ VT/UNC/Duke/Clemson
And if Arkansas takes the Big-12’s bait, then add WVU or USF. I don’t think there’s any drop-off between those two and Arkansas. It’s my honest opinion no disrespect intended.
Miami – Half filled home stadium; T.V. market overrated.
GT – Already spurned the SEC. Let them enjoy the ACC for a bit longer.
FSU – Had their chance. The SEC has much more to offer FSU than the other way around ATM.
Texas – Easily the belle of the ball, but the general temperature surrounding Texas is: We are too good for the SEC. Plus they come with baggage (aTm).
aTm – The SEC has much more to offer aTm than the other way around.
Oklahoma/Ok State – Would only make sense if Texas/aTm joined.
I think these decisions should revolve around more than just football and (FB)T.V. markets since the SEC is already the preeminent FB conference and their games are already broadcast into every household in the nation.
Bringing in VT/UNC/Duke/Clemson immediately makes the SEC the premier basketball conference, along with adding an even handed mixture of competition football and baseball wise, instead of just adding sleeping giants or juggernauts who only take from current member’s recruiting efforts in football. Also too much of a good thing might screw up the SEC’s feng shui.
So now the SEC is the premier conference for the three major sports.
What's up Ryan? ARGHHHHHH!!! oops. ~ Patrick Chewing
No.
Their football stadiums are not near what we have in the SEC (except Clemson.) Plus most ACC schools have this feeling they are superior to SEC schools so forget them.
I would not count Clemson or FSU in that group whom feeling superior, but Duke-UNC-VT sure act like that. (Although VPI should not be so uppity.) And Clemson and VT would both be required to change or modify their uniforms.
Give me Texas & AM. I thought Texas folks were real nice in Pasadena, seriously!
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
Their football stadiums are not near what we have in the SEC
I mean, are we talking big 6 or little 6?
Plus most ACC schools have this feeling they are superior to SEC schools so forget them.
Interesting, but I never got that feeling coming from UNC’s or VT’s direction.
I would not count Clemson or FSU in that group whom feeling superior
FSU is one that comes to mind when thinking of school’s who turn their nose’s up towards the SEC member school’s. Along with GT, the Texas school’s, and UM.
And Clemson and VT would both be required to change or modify their uniforms.
I might be missing something. Please explain.
Also, I’m coming from a place of trying to bring in school’s who won’t take from existing school’s recruiting in FB (FSU/GT/aTm) and who bring something to the basketball/baseball/academic table.
Change their
uniforms because they are sooooo bad!!
Obviously my comments about ACC schools is totally subjective. Personally I think UT and A&M are more like SEC schools than Duke and UNC.
Clemson is just Auburn with a lake, FSU is just UF without a swamp.
And I will stand by my comments that the stadiums are not SEC level. Duke holds 35k, UNC 60K, and VT 66k. I know we have a few small venues in MSU, Vandy, and Ole Miss, but I’d rather add schools with large fan bases and large stadiums. Clemson & FSU each have that.
Even UK has a bigger stadium than Duke, UNC, and VT, and they don’t take football that serious at UK. We don’t need to step down.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
Clemson is just Auburn with a lake
That’s funny!
"Let's go be champions, boys!" - Greg McElroy
(Formerly SugarBowl93)
by RememberTheRoseBowl on May 4, 2010 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Haha..
Clemson and Tech’s unis aren’t that bad. I think they’re pretty tight myself.
I guess it’s just a difference of opinion on how to go about expansion. There are no wrong answers I think; just more right maybe?
The only wrong answer is expansion itself I believe, but if it goes that route we just have to try to make the best of the situation.
I'm wracking my brain . . .
to imagine any plausible scenario in which Arkansas would agree to leave the SEC. I can’t think of any because only two conferences make more revenue-sharing money than the SEC: they are the Big Ten and the ACC. And Arky will not be getting an invitation from either of those two. One highly implausible scenario would have them joining the PAC 10 along with Texas/TA&M to create a super conference.
Putting aside that implausible scenario, do you really think the lower tier presidents of the Big XII are going to agree to offer an incentive to Arkansas when these presidents are already griping about how small their own cut is? Arkansas currently has a much better deal in the SEC than anything the Big XII could possibly offer.
For better or worse, Arkansas will be an SEC team for many, many years to come.
by M. Johnson Defender on May 3, 2010 6:16 PM CDT reply actions
HHHMMM..
two conferences make more revenue-sharing money than the SEC: they are the Big Ten and the ACC
I’m going to have to see some visual evidence of this.
link please
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
Interesting link..
dated, but still interesting.
Was that just the money earned from football during the 07-08 school year, or were there other sports involved?
Also, I think you were a bit misleading with..
I can’t think of any because only two conferences make more revenue-sharing money than the SEC: they are the Big Ten and the ACC.
If I’m correct, the SEC out-gained all conferences the past two seasons (in FB).
There appears to be a fallacy in the ESPN article as well.
The Big Ten is the only conference that shares revenue equally among its schools.
The SEC comes to mind. I may be confused though.
I heard on Jox the other day
I think it was Andy staples, that Clemson and FSU would be out because Florida and So Car would put up to much fight. He said Maryland because it would increase the “TV footprint”. One my friends is from there and says a lot of the people there consider themselves southern. I just don’t see it.
Maryland does just not have
the alumni/ae support for such a venture. It is like University of Illinois too fair weather to count upon. I think it would be too odd to go to Norman or Austin for a conference game. It would just not feel like the SEC. I have mentioned the point previously about cultural affinity and familarity, but Tex-Arkana panhandle funk seems like Rutgers to me: y’all like it, good for you, but
I don't disagree...
It would just not feel like the SEC.
You’re right, it would feel odd and it would take several years to fully acclimate ourselves. The first road trip to Arkansas felt weird too, and this wouldn’t be any different.
With that said, though, I do think it’s unavoidable. Maybe you don’t go west into Oklahoma, maybe it’s Clemson or something along those lines, but even so it’s something odd that we will all have to adjust to.
"Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." -- Milton Friedman
by outsidethesidelines on May 4, 2010 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Hey you can bust on
Switzer, but Royal and Wilkinson were class acts.
I hate the NCAA more than UT & AU combined. At least with UT & AU you got a fighting chance.
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