Expect War in Fayetteville

Enola Gay?

…she would probably rather you throw that in there…(just messin’ wit ya, Sistah)….

crossing routes

the best team does not always win, hence upsets. Sometimes upsets are almost predictable. A good team on the road, with its biggest game the next week (UF), against a hot shot qb with young DB’s against and a team that has been humiliated 2 years in row—-these are factors to consider.

Anyone who thinks that because Bama is better than Arky thus Alabama should automatically win is wrong. This is not an automatic win. Ga State, San Jose, even Duke- those are automatic. Maybe even Ole Miss & MSU. But all you have to do is remember Auburn last year to see how easy it is on the road to potentially have serious trouble with a team to which you are superior. I think Bama wins, but I would say our odds of winning are probably only 3-1 in favor. In other words Arky has a 1 in 4 chance of pulling the upset. We play 4 games at their place, with these exact two teams, we would probably win 3 and lose 1.

i prefer analysis that helps me understand what has transpired in the past and which prepares me to better appreciate the contests in the future. in fact, the sabermetric revolution over the past couple of years has been a delight specifically because it’s not created with the specific intention of aiding the bettor.

If you take i-40 across, it is three miles further going west than returning west, even though the cross-bound lanes never really depart from one another.

That’s what I’m calling my memoirs “Three Missing Miles of Arkansas”

Nice O Brother Where Art Thou reference.

AR will test our secondary. If they have a running game, too, we’re in for a real challenge. I expect they will fully understand from Petrino that a win puts them in the driver’s seat to win the SEC West.

I don’t think we’ll be looking ahead to FL all that much, not after last year’s win over the Gators. “Last time we were thinking about Florida, Auburn had us on the ropes. Remember…?”

Petrino’s Hogs don’t instill that irrational dread — yet — that Nutt’s Hogs did (all those 4th-quarter nightmares).

not involved in this debate, but it seems like you are arguing points that are irrelevent. OTS isn’t saying Bama isn’t clearly the better overall team. Or that Bama shouldn’t win. OTS is simply saying it’s flawed logic to use results from the previous year, and extrapolate that to the next. Even if certain key factors remain the same (i.e. same players, coaches etc..).

What besides Mallett and home field advantage has you worried about Arkansas, assuming you are worried?

Well, for starters I am not that worried, we’ll probably face more difficult opponents. We can probably get by with a lesser performance against Arkansas than we can against Florida or LSU, and perhaps Penn State as well.

The on-field concern is obviously our secondary. Arkansas has a great offense regardless, but in particular an offense that is very adept at confusing route combinations and an effective downfield passing attack. Even if we have a good secondary in 2010, that’s a major concern simply because identifying the Hogs attack is very difficult. Petrino has made the head of many an inexperienced DB’s spin in years gone by with his attack, and that is what they will look to do against us. Match that with the complexity of our own scheme, and that could be a major problem.

Clearly the defense remains the weak point for the Hogs, and we’ll have to take advantage there. That is something we did not do last year… Arkansas shut us down most of the game (particularly the running game) but fortunately we were able to generate some big plays. Nevertheless, moving forward, the Arkansas offense will have some success against us this year, and our offense is going to have to respond in kind.

In essence, I have four major concerns with playing the Hogs:

(1) In as much as home field advantage counts for anything, it’s greatest value likely comes with youth and inexperience playing games early in the year on the road.

(2) Energy is an issue. We will likely be ready to play in our own right, but even so I imagine the Hogs will have more intensity for this game than any other game on their schedule.

(3) On a more general note, we will have to stop Arkansas’ unquestioned strong point (passing game) with our unquestioned weak point (pass defense). Specifically, Petrino’s schemes thrive on inexperienced defensive backs.

(4) Arkansas is a quality team regardless of match-ups, and one that will almost certainly be in the top half of the SEC. Anyone looking to beat them will have to play at a high level to do so.

dont give up the big play, our front seven will do fine.

Im hoping our front 5-6 can stop the run and allow more of a nickel package on D. more DB’s means less passing lanes.

dont give up the big play, our front seven will do fine.

Im hoping our front 5-6 can stop the run and allow more of a nickel package on D. more DB’s means less passing lanes.

In general we have played good against teams we are a bit scared of. I think the UGA game in 08 was a bit of that.

For some reason we were not scared of UT or AU last year and it showed.

…could it be…