I'm sure many of you had discussions with folks after last week's games, who believed that Boise's close win over Virginia Tech was indicative of one really good team beating another really good team. What it was, in fact, was a Boise team of unknown quality beating a team that would go on to lose to James Madison University (A FCS school).
Like last week, Alabama's schedule makes Boise's look like a walk in the park, but it's funny to see the matchups, so here's the current list.
- Florida (#4) -- Fresno State (#24)
- LSU (#5) -- Oregon State (#26)
- South Carolina (#7) -- Nevada (#37)
- Auburn (#33) -- Virginia Tech (#38)
- Arkansas (#34) -- Idaho (#71)
- Penn State (#35) -- Hawaii (#81)
- Mississippi State (#36) -- Utah State (#85)
- Tennessee (#53) -- Wyoming (#105)
- Duke (#75) -- Louisiana Tech (#114)
- Ole Miss (#78) -- San Jose State (#115)
- San Jose State (#115) -- Toledo (#130)
- Georgia State (#244) -- New Mexico State (#166)
As you can see, our opponent ranking order is starting to look a bit more realistic, and will continue to do so for the remainder of the season. Penn State took a big dive after the loss, as you might have expected, as did Tennessee.
Here are the stats:
- Average Opponent: 59.92 (Bama) -- 82.67 (BS)
- Median / Tr. Mean: 35.5 (Bama) -- 83 (BS)
Our average opponent moved up a few spots while we lost a spot in the median. Boise's average opponent slipped a few spots, but lost more than 20 points in the median. Essentially that means that Boise's top couple of teams is keeping their average up, but Sagarin's estimation of the middle of the pack for Boise's opponents is pretty dismal.
That's obvious, too, if you just look at the precipitous drop from Virginia Tech to Idaho. Also note that Virginia Tech hasn't felt the brunt of the hit to their Sagarin rating yet, as JMU is actually 2-0 and, in this week's Sagarin ranked 58th on the basis of two wins, with one of them over Virginia Tech. Once the initial rankings stop playing in, I'd expect Virginia Tech to drop even farther, unless they can get some quality wins in the mean time, or JMU doesn't lose.
Just to re-state the point: we all knew the difference would be laughable -- the post is here just so we can all actually get a good laugh out of it.
What we can do, however, is thank JMU. They just made Boise's task of jumping a one-loss team in the computer rankings really, really difficult.