SEC Running Back Success Rates | Week Seven
by Todd on Oct 18, 2011 9:00 AM CDT
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Week One | Week Two | Week Three | Week Four | Week Five | Week Six
For those of you who are new to this, the Running Back Success Rate is a measure of how "successful" each of a running back's rushing attempts are. A "successful" run is one that :
Gains at least 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on 1st down
Gains at least 60% of the yardage needed to move the chains on 2nd down
Gains at least 100% of the yardage needed to move the chains on 3rd and 4th down
On to the numbers...
WEEK SEVEN
| Player | Team | Total ATT | Successful ATT | Success Rate | Gained | AVG |
| Trent Richardson | Alabama | 17 | 14 | 82% | 183 | 10.8 |
| Eddie Lacy | Alabama | 5 | 2 | 40% | 22 | 4.4 |
| Jalston Fowler | Alabama | 9 | 5 | 56% | 125 | 13.9 |
| Blake Sims | Alabama | 5 | 4 | 80% | 74 | 14.8 |
| Michael Dyer | Auburn | 23 | 10 | 43% | 73 | 3.2 |
| Onterio McCalebb | Auburn | 10 | 4 | 40% | 43 | 4.3 |
| Michael Ford | LSU | 5 | 3 | 60% | 35 | 7.0 |
| Spencer Ware | LSU | 23 | 9 | 39% | 80 | 3.5 |
| Vick Ballard | Miss. State | 20 | 7 | 35% | 67 | 3.4 |
| Chris Rainey | Florida | 16 | 7 | 44% | 33 | 2.1 |
| Isaiah Crowell | Georgia | 10 | 4 | 40% | 35 | 3.5 |
| Marcus Lattimore | South Carolina | 17 | 4 | 24% | 39 | 2.3 |
| Tauren Poole | Tennessee | 19 | 11 | 58% | 70 | 3.7 |
As if we hadn't slobbered all over Trent Richardson enough already, his ridiculous performance against Ole Miss is completely and totally represented by the numbers this week. 82% y'all. 82%. Those are backups against a third string defense kind of numbers, or even a whole lot of short yardage runs, but Richardson was not only "successful," he was explosive, gaining 183 yards and 10.8 ypc bolstered by five 10+ yard runs and a that one 76 yard TD that y'all might remember. Quite truthfully, if there is another performance this dominating this season from any of these backs I will be surprised.
Back to the mere mortals, Tauren Poole had a surprise game against a stout LSU defense with a 58% success rate. His 3.7 ypc average certainly isn't the kind of explosive number you'd like to see (Poole had only one 10+ yard run in the game), but for the most part Poole was able to set up the Vol offense with favorable down and distance. Makes you want to see what Richardson can do come November 5th, doesn't it?
As for LSU's backs, Michael Ford continues to receive very limited touches, but when he does get the ball he generally does well. Spencer Ware shared the workhorse load with Michael Dyer with 23 carries, but with only a 39% success rate he was definitely more quantity than quality this week.
As for everyone else? Well, not a very good week. Auburn's backs are still the epitome of boom or bust, Marcus Lattimore's season ended with a whimper after a solid start that trended downward from week to week, Isaiah Crowell continues to underwhelm despite a lot of hype and even some flashes of what could/will be, and Florida is just broken at this point.
CUMULATIVE
| Player | Team | Games | Total ATT | Successful ATT | Success Rate | Gained | AVG |
| Trent Richardson | Alabama | 7 | 132 | 80 | 61% | 912 | 6.9 |
| Eddie Lacy | Alabama | 6 | 51 | 30 | 59% | 419 | 8.2 |
| Jalston Fowler | Alabama | 6 | 38 | 26 | 68% | 302 | 7.9 |
| Blake Sims | Alabama | 4 | 22 | 10 | 45% | 102 | 4.6 |
| Ronnie Wingo, Jr. | Arkansas | 5 | 60 | 27 | 45% | 284 | 4.7 |
| Michael Dyer | Auburn | 7 | 147 | 70 | 48% | 752 | 5.1 |
| Onterio McCalebb | Auburn | 7 | 66 | 27 | 41% | 355 | 5.4 |
| Michael Ford | LSU | 7 | 67 | 34 | 51% | 359 | 5.4 |
| Spencer Ware | LSU | 7 | 128 | 69 | 54% | 512 | 4.0 |
| Vick Ballard | Miss. State | 7 | 105 | 59 | 56% | 598 | 5.7 |
| Jeff Demps | Florida | 6 | 39 | 16 | 41% | 324 | 8.3 |
| Chris Rainey | Florida | 7 | 103 | 53 | 51% | 500 | 4.9 |
| Isaiah Crowell | Georgia | 7 | 128 | 51 | 40% | 608 | 4.8 |
| Marcus Lattimore | South Carolina | 7 | 163 | 90 | 55% | 818 | 5.0 |
| Tauren Poole | Tennessee | 6 | 97 | 45 | 46% | 395 | 4.1 |
The cumulative numbers continue to average down now that we're in conference play to give us a more accurate pciture of each back's relative worth. Trent Richardson isn't just the top of the pack this week, overall he's now leading the SEC in rushing yardage and success rate. Jeff Demps and Eddie Lacy are still the leaders in ypc despite barely playing the last few weeks, but Richardson is gaining on them with a 6.9 average. Marcus Lattimore is the workhorse for at least one more week, but Auburn's Michael Dyer will likely pass this weekend and Richardson won't be too far behind. Overall, we're starting to see a good separation of the wheat from the chaff, and once the season is over it will be really interesting to see the charts showing the overall season performances.
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Marcus Lattimore's out for the season.
This was definitely his last week as a workhorse.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
It is so sad...
…that the only two SEC backs with higher average YPC…are Trent’s backups!
/needsatissue
//arethosesadtissuesorhappytissues?
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 18, 2011 9:39 AM CDT reply actions
You know what those numbers say to me?
The offensive line are who we thought they were.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
Not necessarily true.
We’re showing our backups, but not other teams’ backups.
God bless our Dark Lord.
FINE!
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 19, 2011 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions
this is great stuff, Todd
Anything surprising come up when you break these numbers down for conference play?
Not yet, once the season is over I’m going to put together graphs of just the conference performances and once we have the entire season at a glance some surprises will probably pop out.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
Don't know why I didn't notice before,
but watching the video again Trent really trolled that poor #21. He juked him in the backfield, made him chase him some 60 yards, then broke his ankles. Poor bastard.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
you need to read this
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
Very nice.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Richardson, Lacy, and Fowler
Are the Beastie Boys.
It’s sabotage!
by PharmacyBob on Oct 18, 2011 1:49 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Ima set it straight...
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 19, 2011 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions
That is an interesting chart/analysis
And shows about what I’d expect.
The only thing I would offer (as an LSU guy, and hopefully this doesn’t come off as trollish), is I tend to measure Spencer Ware by a different success rate. i.e.—is he doing what he needs to do? 7 games in to the season, and it is clear to me he’s been given a mission, to wear a defense out, and it’s one he takes very seriously. At first it irritated me, but it seems the staff has so far been willing to trade numbers and even a few potential first downs for battering the opponents and counting on them softening up later in the game.
When he broke out vs. Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl he flashed moves that made him look like a AU/ARK/UGA rb…by which I mean there was some razzle-dazzle. That is, of course, in contrast to a typical LSU back that just plows for some yards and calls it a win. I began noticing in the Mississippi State game this year that Ware had opportunities outside for some big gains, but he was passing them up to cut back up the field and run straight into a pile of defenders for 4 yards. Frustrated the hell out of me. But….as games go on, it proves effective.
Obviously Trent Richardson is effective in a different kind of way. i.e.—marauding everything in his path like a psychotic bulldozer. But…it makes Bama’s offense go, and so whether he puts up highlights reels or just another day at the office, it’s “successful.”
Related—I’ll be interested to see what Ware’s goal and use is in the Alabama game. This works for us so far because we can basically lean on other teams and wear them out through depth and talent. We won’t wear down Alabama’s depth, and we’re not going to out-talent them, so I half expect the approach to finally differ.
I see what you are saying
…or….err….typing. :)
It definitely helps to have a RB be able to punish the defense as they are being tackled, because, like you, our opponents have all but given up on stopping our running game as the second half wears on. I am also impressed with Ford (IIRC) and his ability to punish would-be tacklers for your team. I’m not sure what year he is in, but I hope he graduates soon.
The metrics that Todd puts together here are showing the overall effectiveness of each RB to stay ahead of the chains and ultimately keep their defense off the field. So it is more of a gage of the ‘success’ a RB has over the long haul. Thankfully for us, Trent does BOTH staying ahead of the chains AND punish the bejeebus out of the defense at the same time.
Ultimately, you are correct that neither team will be able to completely wear down the other’s defense on Nov 5th. We are just hoping that we can, in the words of Coach Saban, “make their asses quit”. Ha. These type of games is what makes college football the best sport on the planet.
Good luck to your team and hope both are undefeated in a couple of weeks. Should be a ‘slobber-knocker’.
Attempting to remove humor from posts since August 30, 2011
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