Well, I’m usually pretty pessimistic coming into a big game like LSU. And, even though it will be a tough game I actually think Bama will beat LSU. Here is why:
1. THE DEFENSES: LSU has only played 2 teams that had an offense. They gave up a lot of points to Oregon and WVU, a total of 48 points to those two teams. For all the talk I think their D will give up 21-24 points to Bama. On Bama’s side we have also played 2 good offensive team- Arky and UF (when they still had a qb unlike the UF that LSU killed.) To those two teams we gave up 24. By the way LSU was out gained by both Oregon and WVU. Alabama by the way has not been out gained by any team...not even close. Bottom line our D is better.
2. THE OFFENSES: On the scored board the LSU offense looks really good. They have scored 314 pts. and we have scored 315 pts..But our offense has gained 3661 yards which is 2217 yards more than our defense has given up. LSU has only gained 2977 but that is only 966 yards more than their defense has given up. To me this tells me that our offense line has been able to control the other teams defensive line more effectively which is turn keeps our defense off the field. At any rate statistically our O looks to be slightly better than LSU. Plus we have the one offensive super star in this game on our side.
3. TURNOVERS: They do have an edge in turnover margin. They are +15 in turnovers and we are only +6. They have remarkably only thrown 1 int all season. However, I think we have made progress in turnovers. We have not lost a fumble since N. Texas. and except last night we have not had an int since Kent. So in the SEC we had 1 total turn overe. A bigger concern has been our lack of turning the ball over. But here is what I think. Both teams are so solid we may not see one turnover in the game from either side. If that happens it is advantage Bama. Take the turnovers away from LSU and they are not nearly as dominating.
4. HOME FIELD: LSU has not played in front of crowd like they will see Nov. 5. They have had 3 road test (I do not consider their opener a road test.) They looked weak at MSU and MSU is not much. They gave up a bunch of yards and points to WVU. They should have been in a closer game at UT but UT gave it away. Of the 3, UT would probably be the toughest crowd because of size but trust me the UT crowd was not that much into it. WVU crowd was into it but really almost only half the size of BDS. Our crowd will be worth 7 points to us.
Assuming we do not turn it over I think we will win at home 27-17. Of course anything can happen in football see OU last Sat. But I really think we are the better team and we are at home. Plus I do think we still have the intangibles on our side: team unity from the tornado, motivation from last seasons loss, ranked #2 not #1, better looking uniforms, and heavy fertilizer on Les’ sideline grass at BDS.
Alright, tell me what you think about what I’ve got.