Why We Should Beat LSU
by 5026 on Oct 23, 2011 9:46 PM CDT
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PrintWell, I’m usually pretty pessimistic coming into a big game like LSU. And, even though it will be a tough game I actually think Bama will beat LSU. Here is why:
1. THE DEFENSES: LSU has only played 2 teams that had an offense. They gave up a lot of points to Oregon and WVU, a total of 48 points to those two teams. For all the talk I think their D will give up 21-24 points to Bama. On Bama’s side we have also played 2 good offensive team- Arky and UF (when they still had a qb unlike the UF that LSU killed.) To those two teams we gave up 24. By the way LSU was out gained by both Oregon and WVU. Alabama by the way has not been out gained by any team...not even close. Bottom line our D is better.
2. THE OFFENSES: On the scored board the LSU offense looks really good. They have scored 314 pts. and we have scored 315 pts..But our offense has gained 3661 yards which is 2217 yards more than our defense has given up. LSU has only gained 2977 but that is only 966 yards more than their defense has given up. To me this tells me that our offense line has been able to control the other teams defensive line more effectively which is turn keeps our defense off the field. At any rate statistically our O looks to be slightly better than LSU. Plus we have the one offensive super star in this game on our side.
3. TURNOVERS: They do have an edge in turnover margin. They are +15 in turnovers and we are only +6. They have remarkably only thrown 1 int all season. However, I think we have made progress in turnovers. We have not lost a fumble since N. Texas. and except last night we have not had an int since Kent. So in the SEC we had 1 total turn overe. A bigger concern has been our lack of turning the ball over. But here is what I think. Both teams are so solid we may not see one turnover in the game from either side. If that happens it is advantage Bama. Take the turnovers away from LSU and they are not nearly as dominating.
4. HOME FIELD: LSU has not played in front of crowd like they will see Nov. 5. They have had 3 road test (I do not consider their opener a road test.) They looked weak at MSU and MSU is not much. They gave up a bunch of yards and points to WVU. They should have been in a closer game at UT but UT gave it away. Of the 3, UT would probably be the toughest crowd because of size but trust me the UT crowd was not that much into it. WVU crowd was into it but really almost only half the size of BDS. Our crowd will be worth 7 points to us.
Assuming we do not turn it over I think we will win at home 27-17. Of course anything can happen in football see OU last Sat. But I really think we are the better team and we are at home. Plus I do think we still have the intangibles on our side: team unity from the tornado, motivation from last seasons loss, ranked #2 not #1, better looking uniforms, and heavy fertilizer on Les’ sideline grass at BDS.
Alright, tell me what you think about what I’ve got.
FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.
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I agree with Derek Dooley on this one.
I can’t tell you who’s better, all that matters is who plays better for 3.5 hours.
I can say, without question, that I agree it is an advantage that we have much better looking uniforms. We also don’t smell like carnival food, which is another plus.
"We run this state, we run this stadium. Now let's go out there and run their ass in the ground"
I like our D against their O.
Big pass plays are a concern. Robert Lester, please make that big play we know you are capable of…
I worry about our O vs their D. I believe we can run on them, but LSU will make that very difficult, with a good game plan and their pursuit. We will need outstanding execution, patience, and 60 minutes worth of best effort. I believe a healthy Lacy may be a huge factor.
Kicking game is a big concern; i really don’t want us to need a last second FG to win…
Oh! And LSU has a mouthy bunch on D.
Yet more motivational material for Saban to use in the all important mental preparation.
2011 Jarrett Lee, meet Robert Lester. Proceed to look like 2008 Jarrett Lee.
This is my fondest hope for this game.
Dave Robertson is growing up to be the new Mariano Rivera. My two universes of fandom can finally unite!
by SoGladILeftTheACC on Oct 24, 2011 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions
Please let it be so
"If wanting to win is a fault, as some of my critics seem to insist, then I plead guilty. I like to win. I know no other way. It's in my blood." -- Paul "Bear" Bryant
by GeauxCrimson on Oct 24, 2011 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions
after watching UT game
can our receivers get open against LSU’s secondary? this is my biggest concern. I suspect LSU will make us throw (which they could given their D line), and they will not give up plays like UT did. This game is a toss up for me, but we must come out clicking on offense or it’ll be a long game. I think our D can keep them under 20, but we gotta hang some points.
over by the roadhouse, with them rusted engine blocks...
by JunctionCrimson on Oct 23, 2011 10:12 PM CDT reply actions
LSU's defensive..
interior has looked a little suspect to me. Just a general observation from an untrained eye. Damn I love football.
I STILL don't believe in excuses, I believe in execution.
LSU fans idea
is that they will just load the box to stop our run game and force the QB to beat them… I wonder if anyone has tried that against us in the last few years… very original concept
Last week proved
our receivers can beat single coverage.
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer Give 'Em HELL Alabama!
by RoscoeOfAlabama on Oct 24, 2011 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions
*Tennessee’s single coverage
"We knew we had to turn it up or we would get beat. We ripped the knob off. We turned it up so much we broke the knob." - Roy Upchurch after beating Florida in the 2009 SEC Championship Game
by bearbryantwonit on Oct 25, 2011 4:58 AM CDT up reply actions
I like our chances in this game
Being able to determine who will win based on what we’ve seen takes out a lot of variables, like a bad bounce here or there that completely changes the flow of the game, weather, all that good stuff.
But I think that if we played this team 100 times under the same conditions (Tuscaloosa night game, everyone healthy, etc), we would beat LSU probably 65-70 of those. But that still leaves them with a 30-35% chance in my mind. That’s too close for comfort.
Either way, I predict this game is going to be a classic. I just hope we don’t need a so-called “classic” like we had against UT in ’09 or like Sparty pulled this weekend.
The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~
Classic like UT09 would be okay because we won that.
But I would be perfectly fine with a boring game that we win by double digits (I don’t think it would happen of course, but it’d be fine with me).
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Oct 25, 2011 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
From your lips to God's ear......
I like your thought process, but like Dooley said, all that will matter is which of us plays better for 3.5 hours. I am severely worried about what seems an habitual tendency for us to come out flat. We’ve gone from not finishing (last year’s problem) to not starting when the bell rings. If we come out flat against their speed, we could dig a hole for which 30 minutes won’t be enough time to climb out of.
You can't win. You can't break even. You can't get out of the game.
Or Julio
out running everyone down the sidelines off of a screen pass. What causes me concern is that we haven’t faced a team, it seems, at their full capacity. Everyone seems to have been missing a key player(s) or at least not at 100%. I know we were the cause of some of those early in some games. What gives me optimism is I know lsu should get our entire focus and our full wrath should come out of our team onto theirs. ( To Skarth’s comment)
FYI, at the bottom of each comment, to the right of the username and date and time,
there’s a button called ‘reply’. If you use that, your comment will appear under the post you’re replying to. Makes the conversation much easier to follow.
God bless our Dark Lord.
Ive learned that lesson.....
I think.
by Jasands50 on Oct 24, 2011 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 12 recs
I totally rec'd that
But my ipad says flagged?
Shake it, Bake it, and he makes it! Touchdown!
by rolltidefromaz on Oct 24, 2011 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Ja, you are not only a legend, but a byword as well.
by TiderUpNorth on Oct 24, 2011 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
verb to be more precise.
And yes I have Jasands a few responses in my time.
Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.
by Bamapride on Oct 26, 2011 6:41 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
welcome back stranger
"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." -Thomas Paine
WELL DONE
Bravo.
Inanity @gothlaw
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 24, 2011 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions
You win.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
THAT'S how you do it, folks.
Jasands for Heisman.
RBR's King of Hip-Hop...
by SpockJenkins on Oct 25, 2011 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I did hit the reply button under Skarth
but StablerRaider’s comment popped up before mine did. So I added that little amendment.
I think
we could whip their ass or it could be a stalemate drama like the ‘09 year when Julio pulled off the heroics. Just a new hero would have to emerge on a single play. I’m not going to consider that coming from lsu. I hope we just whoop that ass though.
THAT's why you think we should beat them?
I think we should beat them so we can stay in the MNC race.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Uh-Oh
Fitty done went and got the optimism…
We are so screwed.
Attempting to remove humor from posts since August 30, 2011
My thoughts exactly.
Dave Robertson is growing up to be the new Mariano Rivera. My two universes of fandom can finally unite!
by SoGladILeftTheACC on Oct 24, 2011 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Hey AU will be tough.
Forget what happened to them Sat. They will be ready for Bama.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Of course they will...
…UT was ready for Bama. Ole Miss was ready for Bama. Vandy was ready for Bama. So were UF and Arky. They were all ready for Bama…but what good did it do them?
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 24, 2011 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's the 5026 we know, love, and often pick on.
Glad to have you back, man!
Dave Robertson is growing up to be the new Mariano Rivera. My two universes of fandom can finally unite!
by SoGladILeftTheACC on Oct 24, 2011 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Hey I don't think AU will beat us.
But I would not be surprised at a 6-6 half time score. I think we have to fight them for 4.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Wow. You are right. The game will not end at halftime.
Just saying I don’t think we were as bad in the 1st half vs. UT as UT was just giving us all they had. I think AU will not mail it in vs. us as they did vs. LSU.
Auburn has really had just one goal since they lost to Arky, beat Bama. Chizik & company know that even though they won a NC they are still suspect in many eyes. But, if they can beat Bama about half the time they have a job forever. It doesn’ t matter to AU if they finish 7-5, or 8-4 as long as they beat Bama the year is a success. I think they will lose another one before us to UGA. But that does not mean they will not put it together vs. us. They will have one qb by then too.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Yep, I'm not comfortable with this approach at all....
I’ve always thought of Fitty as the master of reverse psychology. 5026, please remember the glass is half empty!!
"Auburn people are stinky"- my 3 yr.old daughter
by You can call me Al on Oct 24, 2011 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Here's a thought:
Which game is bigger, this years LSU game, or the 08-09 SEC Championship games vs UF?
Just curious about some opinions. Either way, we have played in some huge games in recent years, we sure as hell are living in some glory days of Bama football.
My take on the game: flip a coin boys. This one truly is a tossup. I’ve watched LSU several times this season, and I must say, in my opinion, we are a carbon copy of each other. That’s what makes this game so exciting. We are capable of running them out of the stadium. They are capable of running us out of the stadium. The defenses are so good, this game could be 0-0 through overtime.
I can’t wait 2 weeks. How the hell am I supposed to get anything done over the next 2 weeks????
ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!
I'm going to go with this years LSU game
because right now it is the only one that matters. I agree with you on us being evenly stacked. I just hope we don’t play a first half like we did Saturday night, which I don’t think we will. I am a ball of nerves about this game. For the next 2 weeks, my diet will consist of pepto bismol and tums. It will surely be a doozey.
"Auburn people are stinky"- my 3 yr.old daughter
by You can call me Al on Oct 24, 2011 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Me too.
I’ve already read every article I could possibly find on this game on the internet. Now I’m pretty much just hitting the refresh button like a freakin crack addict waiting on a new one to post. I love it!!
I tend toward the LSU game this year as well. Maybe it’s simply because it’s the next game, or maybe its because UF has simply become irrelevant over the last couple years. It was amazing to take down Florida, aka Tim Tebow. It’s gona be even more amazing if we can bring Miles back down to earth.
ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!
by nashvillebama on Oct 24, 2011 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
"(B)ecause right now it is the only one that matters..."
Love it. You’re exactly right. I’m a ball of nerves about this one, too…that little churning in the pit of my stomach that isn’t going to go away until about 10:30 p.m. on November 5.
"I reject your reality and substitute my own!"
-Adam Savage
I would say UF in 08 & 09
simply because the winner was SEC champ and in the NC.
If we beat LSU then we still have to beat MSU, AU, and a team to be named later just to get to the game.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
I think we beat LSU
because WE ARE FREAKING ALABAMA!!!!!! ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!!!!!!
by Jasands50 on Oct 24, 2011 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
ALA-FREAKING-BAMA!
Has such a nice ring to it :)
Dave Robertson is growing up to be the new Mariano Rivera. My two universes of fandom can finally unite!
by SoGladILeftTheACC on Oct 24, 2011 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions
on another note.....
I know there will be a lot of RBRers reading this post and I want to ask a question. What is Saban saving Deandrew White for? I know the boy is good and he has the height to catch passes over shorter defenders…..why the hell haven’t we seen more of him. Has he been saving him for this next game?
I didn't really notice, and haven't looked at the stats or replay yet.
Did he play Saturday? FWIW, AJ has overthrown even 6’6" Michael Williams much of the time, though Deandrew can surely jump much higher than Williams.
Hopefully we’ll unleash #2 on 11/5!
God bless our Dark Lord.
DeAndrew made a great block waay downfield against Miss on the TR 70+ yrd run.
DeAndrew has been playing. He’s coming along.
Proud mini-Saban.
by Tidee Whitee on Oct 24, 2011 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions
That's a rec!
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
I'm getting tired of reading about LSU overcoming "obstacles".
The two I will point out are Jefferson and the most recent suspension of 3 players. My argument: overcoming the loss of Jefferson is not a big deal – Jarrett Lee has already been there and played for 19+ years right?? They still had an experienced qb coming in. It’s not like they had to start from scratch with inexperience.
Regarding the 3 suspended players – it was against auburn, people.
ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!
Obstacles are things like injuries, disasters, bizarre coaching mishaps, etc.
Players being suspended after failing a drug test and getting in a bar fight are not “obstacles,” they are consequences. Winning despite your own off-field screw ups may speak volumes to the talent of your team, but let’s not act like they deserve some kind of medal for it.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
by TexaninNYC on Oct 24, 2011 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
You're forgetting that "no one's been through what" Jordan Jefferson has been through....
LSU provides a compelling human story.
LSU
has us beat on special teams and that is about it. Maze needs to get some extra stick-em on punt and kick returns.
This is going to be a great game…sucks that we have to wait 2 weeks for it.
I'd agree...on special teams LSU has
an edge going in.
However, Cade had his best game ever at Bama last Sat. and that is a good sign.
One thing I look for on special teams vs. LSU is some trickeration from one of the teams, maybe us, maybe them, maybe both. I would not be surprised to actually see an onside kick to start the game.
I do not expect Les to play this game straight up.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
I just hope
he’s used up all of his seemingly infinite good luck.
ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!
by nashvillebama on Oct 24, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Stats dont bear that out.
LSU has Wing who is an excellent punter.
LSU is better than Bama by +5 yds net per Punt
Bama is +5 yds better in net Punt return yds
Both teams are essentially equal in KO return yds
Thinking that turnovers, if there are any, will play an unusually large role on Nov. 5th.
And on our brain fart 1st half against Tenn…Im not particularly concerned.
Its difficult to play great for 4 quarters. In the past five years, we’ve seen may a game where we were off the charts, in the zone great for intense spurts.
Proud mini-Saban.
by Tidee Whitee on Oct 24, 2011 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
LSU
2 big wins over Oregon and West Virginia were won because of special teams.
Remember Oregon was beating LSU and then Mathieu returned the fumbled punt for a TD…later a fumbled Oregon kickoff after a LSU TD helped LSU get the rout going.
Same thing with West Virginia. Brad Wing continued to punt West Virginia into terrible field position. The moment WVU got some momentum and made it a one score game, Morris Claiborne brings the kick back for a TD.
You are exactly right
which is why I think Les will try to make something happen on special teams buy using trickeration. If he sits back and lets the game come to him it may not happen. He will try to force the issue. It is his M.O.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
That's another place UA has the advantage:
sane coaching.
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer Give 'Em HELL Alabama!
by RoscoeOfAlabama on Oct 24, 2011 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Special teams is my biggest concern.
It may be our achilles heel going into this game. I think this game will be decided by who can make best use of field position. Last Saturday was the first time I recall a touchback from our kicker. Usually it is a mediocre kick giving the other team an opportunity to start their drive with good field position. Punting is no better. Field goals? My nightmare scenario is a game when time is running out and we are on the 40 needing a field goal to win or send the game into overtime.
My concern as well
Bama MUST win the battle of field position. They MUST win(or tie) the turnover battle. Cannot say Bama will win because of home field advantage because recent history does not support that.
Saban's teams at Bama shine in big games
For some reason I feel we will do what we did to FL last year and Texas in ‘09. Randle will get his one big TD, they may use trickeration for another but LSU won’t score more than 14-17 points in their best case scenario. They may punt us deep into our own territory, but Trent will get field position back even if we don’t score. Lee is going to throw at least one interception simply because me and my 100k bestest friends will be yelling so loud. The crowd noise will have an impact, we will not let up. I predict the Process will get us a double digit win. It will be fun and this is an amazing team we should all soak in as time flies and before we blink an eyeit will be over with Bama having another MNC.
Let me just take this opportunity to say this...
ROLL TIDE.
That is the only way to start a Gameday Thread. The. Only. Fucking. Way.
Do not do that bush league, amateur hour bullshit on Nov. 5.
ROLL TIDE.
RBR's King of Hip-Hop...
by SpockJenkins on Oct 25, 2011 1:17 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Is it wrong to flag firsties?
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Oct 25, 2011 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't make us haze you.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
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