The Alabama Crimson Tide October Report
With two months of Alabama football in the books and the Crimson Tide amid a bye week, it's time to take a look at the performance of the team thus far. There isn't a great deal of change from the September Report but a lot of the trends we suspected at that point in the season now have a bit more data to support them as bona fide.
Here are all the categories from the NCAA's 2011 FBS Football Statistics page that Alabama appears in the top ten.
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Defensively, Alabama has moved into the top of every major category with the sole exception of Passing Defense which the Tide comes in third nationally. Yet Alabama is No. 1 in the nation for passes defended per game (7) so it's not like there is any kind of hidden chink in the armor amongst the secondary.
The dominance of this defense has prompted regular comparisons with Crimson Tide teams of yore. To get a better grasp of that Roll Bama Roll has compiled a publicly available spreadsheet cataloging the basic stats of every Alabama defense 1990-2011 as well as all 13 National Championship teams. The shorthand result is that the 2011 defense probably the best after eight games since the 1992 squad and, in one or two categories, only surpassed by Coach Bryant's teams from the '60s.
On offense, Trent Richardson is, without a doubt, the engine of the Tide attack and his presence in the top ten for rushing and scoring bears that out. Only one player in college football, Wisconsin's Montee Ball, is worth more points per game than the Bama running back. Richardson's also got more than a little to do with Alabama jumping from 70th to 8th in Third Down Efficiency (by maintaining a 41% conversion rate) but AJ McCarron's improved pass efficiency has something to do with that as well.
Marquis Maze is still the bright spot in Special Teams providing added field position every time the opposition punts the ball. And no defense in America is forcing opposing teams to punt more than Alabama's. And the Crimson Tide is among the least likely teams to fumble the football this season. That has, in turn, helped push the team's Turnover Margin up from 78th to the top 20.
Follow us after the jump to see how Alabama performed in all the statistical categories.
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Trent Richardson, dominates the Crimson Tide's offensive stats but it's worth noting that Marquis Maze is holding steady with solid receiving numbers. The two of them are worth almost 290 all-purpose running yards a game, or about 62% of the total offense. Throw Eddie Lacy's 80+ yards per game in there and you've got a full 80% of the Tide's offense accounted for each week.
While the Alabama defense as a whole is getting deserved credit, the fact Courtney Upshaw leads the SEC in tackles has gone kind of under-the-radar. He's tied for 15th in the nation and, if he stays healthy, there's no reason to believe he won't rise higher by the end of the season.
AJ McCarron's stats have pretty much held steady since last month and that's actually something of a sign of progress. The coaching staff has asked him to do significantly more in terms of the passing game each week and his numbers have shown consistency throughout.
It's when you look at McCarron's progress along with the success of the running game that you can start to appreciate the work of the offensive line this year. There were a lot of questions about this unit coming out of Fall camp and this group has answered them all decisively
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Going into October, there were concerns if Alabama could keep up its level of offensive performance once it got into the conference slate. The team answered that decisively. The Crimson Tide moved up seven spots to 14th in the nation for Scoring Offense, moving into the lead of the SEC.
In fact, Alabama's offense saw an improvement in almost every statistical category from the end of September. Two that stand out are passing efficiency, which jumped 20 spots to 41st, and first down offense lept from 56th to 39th although the per-game average was only .88 yard better. One reason for that could be the sacks allowed which went from two a game to less than one (.88) which took Alabama from 68th in the nation to 39th.
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And here's where the rubber meets the road. The only categories that Alabama isn't in the top quartile of the country and the top three for the conference involve turnovers, statistics that have a notorious variance due to necessarily small sample size.
While the performance across the board remains as superb after September there is one category that has shown significant, and critical, improvement. Alabama's third down defense - arguably the heart of Nick Saban's scheme - improved from 30% to 26.45% jumping the Tide from 21st to second in the country. Similarly, red zone defense improved from 80% to 67 percent pushing the tide up 37 places into a three-way tie for fifth.
Despite the early concerns over the team's lackluster numbers in terms of Tackles for Loss and Sacks, the defense has made noticeable progress in these categories over the course of the season. Tackles for loss leaped from 49th (6.25 per game) to 18th (7.71 per game) while Sacks increased from 1.25 per game to 2.38 jumping Alabama 34 spots to 53rd.
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One key stat not getting a great deal of notice is that Alabama went from 78th in turnover margin (-.25) to 19th (1.88). The surfeit of interceptions in the first game has a lot to do with the relatively low number for the tide but the consistency taking care of the football since then has helped it recover. McCarron has thrown one pick since that game but bigger factor is that the Tide is tenth in the nation for fewest fumbles lost.
Special teams continues to be a concern as punting average remains anemic and kickoff are scarcely better. The return teams have performed well which has helped but a lot of that has come via the powerful wheels of Marquis Maze.
Lastly, Alabama is one of the least penalized teams in the nation. While Finebaum set will insist this is all part of and REC/SEC conspiracy, the fact is it belies one key reason for this team's success - discipline and focus. That will be more of a factor for success for this team down the stretch than any single non-measurable you can pull out of your imagination.
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The Maze punt return stat . . .
. . . reminded me to ask: Does anyone know why Maze called so many fair catches against the Viles? I think he only had one very short return out of about 7 or 8 opportunities.
BALANCE
I am amazed how year-in and year-out our coaching staff keeps our offense SO balanced.
Make their ass quit
Don Kausler had some interesting stats this morning.
Situational stats show differences between similar Alabama, LSU offenses
One thing that surprised me: on 3rd and 7+, we’ve tried rushing the ball 7 times but none of those have picked up a first down. And we’ve lost a total of 14 yards on those 7 tries. What I’m not sure about is if that includes sacks.
For comparison, LSU has run it 12 times in those situations and gained 51 yards and 4 first downs.
God bless our Dark Lord.
is there any accounting in those stats for kneeling
victory formation dealio at the end of the game? That could skew it.
Otherwise, rushing on 3rd and 7 isn’t the greatest idea. Reminds me of my old Saints.
nemo me impune lacessit
I have no idea.
It’s not the best idea, but that’s why we’ve only tried it 7 times out of 50 attempts. But you want to mix it up occassionally, and it would be nice not to lose yardage at least.
God bless our Dark Lord.
Well, we have done it in garbage time where we are trying not to run up the score
For instance last week against UT we ran it on third and long and fourth and long near the endzone in the fourth quarter when the game was in hand. I don’t know for sure but I suspect he is correct and that some of that gets skewed due to the game situation when the 3rd and 7 run is called.
Also, for comparison,
on 3rd and 7+, LSU has run 12 times out of 46 attempts.
So that’s 26% of the time for LSU, and 14% for UA. And again, I don’t know if that includes kneel downs or sacks.
God bless our Dark Lord.
We're very conservative . . .
on long-yardage situations. If it’s 2nd and 20 or 3rd and 15, we pretty much pack it in.
Often we throw a bubble screen instead of handing it off, but going downfield for the first down is something we don’t seem to try on long-yardage much.
Not sure exactly how this impacts these stats, but it’s an observation.
BUT PAWWWWWWWWWWWWWL
While Finebaum set will insist this is all part of and REC/SEC conspiracy
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer Give 'Em HELL Alabama!
by RoscoeOfAlabama on Oct 27, 2011 11:30 AM CDT reply actions
serious question since I cannot abide to think or talk about conference realignment and stupid ass US Senators
I have a healthy respect for Bama’s defense. But I want to ask if any of yall have any qualms when you look at the offenses that defense has built it’s resume on. There’s some crappy offenses in there (for example Kent St is 120 out of 120 in offense). Arkansas is the only worthy offense of note. So, self doubts? Of course you are free to run wild with reckless optimism and praise, it’s SEC football, it’s what we do.
nemo me impune lacessit
well no kidding
but it’s been two months of football. Kent St isn’t 120 out of 120 because of Bama.
nemo me impune lacessit
The better question is why an LSU fan, his team sitting at a shamefull 78 out of 120, thinks he will enjoy
a different fate? Y
Never truss a big butt and a smile.
That's debatable.
But, if you need empirical support for their woes then perhaps this might shed some light on it.
That link can't be correct
Everyone knows lsu has played the toughest schedule in the history of schedules and we have played 7 high school teams and Arkansas.
You raise good points about standard statistics
Mostly, that they don’t take into account strength of opponent or “garbage time” plays.
Perhaps you might find FEI, S&P+, and the hybrid F/+ ratings to be more apropos. A more thorough and accurate description can be found, along with the up-to-the-minute rankings, here, but the gist is that they account for both garbage-time/end-of-half plays and strength of opponent far more thoroughly than a simple accumulation of yards. Oh, and they have Bama and LSU neck-and-neck in almost every sub-category.
I’m finding myself fascinated, so I’m comparing each team’s opponents in terms of offensive and defensive FEI and S&P+. This may turn into a FanPost.
by loxodonta tuscaloosa on Oct 27, 2011 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
do it
drop us a line if you want help coding and such.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
I think it's a valid question but...
Kentucky is 118 and Nortwestern State is not even D1. Also if you look at common opponents (which I know is not always reliable but can be one indicator) we were basically the same in total yards vs. Florida and we fared significantly better against the Viles (our 155 to your 239). I think we are at the least comparable to LSU based on your own metric.
Hand-crafted rugged paracord gear: 8 Legs Web Belts
by Bubba Chang on Oct 27, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Rare to see a D this statistically dominant
Strength of schedule makes less difference to stats than you might think. Not saying it makes no difference, but the ability to dominate statistically against lesser opposition is historically actually a very good measure of a team’s strength.
LSU’s schedule has been tougher than Alabama’s, but not that much tougher—especially when you consider that Alabama played Florida with Brantley for one half and Driscoll for one half, and LSU played them with Briskett for the whole game. That’s officially the same team, but really it’s not. Brantley to Briskett is night and day.
I don’t think the schedule comparison accounts for the entire statistical difference. Alabama’s D stats are truly elite, even by comparison to other recent schools that went against much lighter schedules.
You mean like playing a third string Florida QB at home with no Jeff Demps?
"Never start a fight with an old man...if he's too old to fight, he'll probably just kill you."
A similar thing could be said of LSU's offense
The key difference in schedule so far is probably the Oregon game. A game in which LSU managed to put up 273 yards against the 65th ranked defense in the country.
"Never start a fight with an old man...if he's too old to fight, he'll probably just kill you."
As a stat geek . . .
My opinion is that “Pass Defense” is NOT a major statistical category. Pass defense efficiency is way, way more revealing of how good a team’s pass D is.
The “Pass Defense” category just measures yards surrendered passing. The top teams usually don’t do well, because their opponents throw a lot when they’re trying to come back. Crappy teams might do better, because teams are sitting on their leads and running against them.
It’s possible that I am a little behind the times, as I notice that there are more top teams in the “Pass Defense” category right now than there generally are. Maybe the shift in college football toward more passing has elevated this stat. Alabama, Wisconsin, Michigan St., and Boise St. are all in the top 5, which is not the collection of crappy teams that I am accustomed to seeing toward the top.
Still, there are some not-great teams in the top 10: South Carolina leads, and Florida, UCF, Georgia Tech, Georgia and Temple round out the top 10. The “rushing defense” stat is only slightly more top-heavy with quality. I have long believed it’s a rule that the best stat to show team quality is rushing defense (because teams don’t run on you much when you’re beating their butts), but this year’s stats are making me reconsider these long-held rules.
But anyway . . . reconsider or not . . . history says it’s rare for one of the very best teams to lead in pass D. Alabama is 3rd, which is outstanding for a team that wins its games by an average of over 30.
Second that.
The context or bigger perspective matters. See TX, 2009, where they looked dominant against the run, only allowing 60 or so yds a game, and also had a lot of sacks (see Miami ’92, also). It was misleading because they were usually so far ahead by halftime or so that their opponents abandoned the run altogether.
I find the home vs away stats interesting.
For instance in scoring (pts/game):
Home Away
LSU 42.5 36
Bama 39.6 39
And in scoring defense
Home Away
LSU 7.8 15.3
Bama 5.4 9.3
Total offense/defense is similar as well. LSU is allowing about 150 yards more on defense away from home.
I know Oregon and WVU are in this sample, but after the Syracuse game, I’m skeptical about WVU. Outside of Oregon, I think the schedules are about a push, given we got Florida at the Swamp with a full roster.
"Never start a fight with an old man...if he's too old to fight, he'll probably just kill you."
I think he's referring specifically to home vs. away schedules.
Generally your home schedule is going to be easier on average than your away schedule because you don’t play cupcakes on the road (except Duke in ’10).
God bless our Dark Lord.
I was impressed with the small standard deviation in the home/away numbers for Bama
Compared to LSU.
Especially considering LSU’s toughest game so far has been on the road against Miss St. (#19 in scoring D) where they scored 19. By contrast Alabama scored 27 on Penn State (#5 scoring D) in Happy Valley.
"Never start a fight with an old man...if he's too old to fight, he'll probably just kill you."
Not good to compare all-purpose yards to total yards
All purpose yards include return yardage (whereas total yards do not). So saying that TR and Maze account for 62% of Bama’s offense is incorrect. You have to use yards from scrimmage to make this comparison.
The shorthand result is that the 2011 defense probably the best after eight games since the 1992 squad and, in one or two categories, only surpassed by Coach Bryant’s teams from the ’60s.
/wipes single tear from eye
It feels trite to keep thanking y’all for the statistical breakdowns, but they really are one of my favorite things about RBR. Fascinating stuff.
1979 wasn't a slouch either
"Never start a fight with an old man...if he's too old to fight, he'll probably just kill you."
I prefer Cherub Rock.
God bless our Dark Lord.
by CarrotTop4 on Oct 27, 2011 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Speaking of that quote
While I love the statistical context provided, I wish there were a little more to that quote.
I disagree with the idea that this defense was definitely “surpassed” by the 60s Ds. Its apples vs oranges, as offensive stats in the 60s were way below what they are now.
To me, the only really valid way to compare them would be to see how much they out-performed their peers by. It might be difficult to find the information necessary to make that comparison, but just comparing stats straight up is not revealing and should not lead to drawing a lot of conclusions.
arrgh
Another reply fail. :-(
By “that quote,” I meant “The shorthand result is that the 2011 defense probably the best after eight games since the 1992 squad and, in one or two categories, only surpassed by Coach Bryant’s teams from the ’60s.”
jeeze
maybe i should just delete that spreadsheet since it’s clearly just a waste of everyone’s time.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
I think the sheet's great Kleph
"Never start a fight with an old man...if he's too old to fight, he'll probably just kill you."
It's great, kleph, but it just doesn't answer everything. Not that anyone expects it to.
God bless our Dark Lord.
I said I loved the context
I also said I don’t love that quote, and said exactly why. And I also pointed out that it would be very difficult to get a better answer. For the record, I’m not sure the information necessary to provide the better answer I would like to see is even available.
I hope it’s OK for me to quibble about sentences. Just ban me now if it’s not. Thank you for your work, and I appreciate it, but I believe quibbling about detail improves everybody’s knowledge. I don’t know if I could stop myself from doing it even if I wanted to, and I don’t.
i think i qualified my comment it sufficently
the problem i have with your line of reasoning above it is smacks of the tendency to make sweeping dismissals of information because there is some aspect of it one finds disagreeable.
that spreadsheet is not designed to provide definitive answers but to offer perspective given the information we have available. and discussing how much it tells us about these teams in a historical context is a big part of the reason it is out there.
but if you feel it is insufficiently robust, maybe you should spend hours building your own. but spare us your pompous denunciation of how “unrevealing” it is.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
I don't believe that was pompous
The info you provided was great, and I truly do appreciate it, and I have a pretty good idea of how much work it takes you to put this together—and it’s a helluva lot—but I think it significantly derails the conversation for me to have to surround every point I make with a paragraph or two of praise. I wish you would just be a little more generous toward me and not insult me with things like “pompous” if I criticize something. I’m hoping to make as good a conversation here as we can have.
I don’t intend to be pompous, but maybe it comes across that way because I think my observations are worthwhile. I have been a college football stat freak for nearly 50 years, and have drawn some conclusions over time. I’m always openminded about having them being challenged and put to the test, but I’m not going to beg leave to speak.
and i don't believe qualifying my comment
as a “shorthand” analysis was overstating the point that followed, either.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
For the record
I do understand something about your work process, because I have done some college football blogging myself.
Also for the record, my work was not as good as yours is. Please feel free to quote me on that at any time.
Perhaps I took you out of context, but I have been on something of a crusade against drawing quick conclusions of this D compared to ’61 or ’66 based on the stats. Bit of a knee-jerk for me so say something like that.
Criticism
is always easier than execution.
"Football has never been just a game to me. Never."
Paul William Bryant
I ran basic numbers based on scoring one night, and of course I didn't save the file
This team is told teams, on average, to right at 30% of their usual scoring, which is damn impressive and with a precentage point or two of the 1992 defense.
The 1961 defense, however, held opponents to ~13% of their average score per game. Now this doesn’t account for a lot of things (strength of schedule, increased parity in college football in 50 years, etc.), but it’s hard to argue that 1961 wasn’t the best defense Alabama’s ever seen.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
Wow typos galore.
*is holding
*within a percentage point
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
Nice
Thanks. I wonder if it’s possible to compare those stats to the performances of other top peer Ds. One thing about Alabama’s 2011 defense, if you look at the stats, is that it stands way, way out statistically from other Ds, at least at this point in the season.
For example, in rushing D, the yards-per-game difference between Alabama and #2 Cincinnatti is GREATER than the difference between Cincy and #17 ULM.
In scoring D, the difference between Alabama and #2 is greater than the difference between #2 and #5.
In total D, the difference between Alabama and #2 is greater than the difference between #2 and #4.
In pass efficiency D, the difference between Alabama and #2 is greater than the difference between #2 and #9.
I find that really impressive.
I've tried
But it’s really hard to find details from before about 1990 online, even with CFB Warehouse and the like. Scores are the most readily available option, and even that can be a workout for teams that aren’t Alabama, Oklahoma, etc.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
a lot of times
i’ve been forced to use google news archives and go day-by-day through newspaper microfilms it has available. we’re pretty lucky since the tuscaloosa news is on there but it’s a time-consuming crapshoot for many others.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
I wonder how successful a Wikipedia type college football stats sire would be.
With user input, moderation, etc. I think you’d get a decent site, if you could avoid the idiot trolls who would inevitably pop up.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
There is a Craig James joke in there somewhere
Its too soon after lunch for me to try to articulate it.
"You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by twominutedrill on Oct 27, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
i'd love to see that
if we can get more people on board, it might be an off-season project.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
Somewhat OT but...
Has any long-term weather forecast been revealed for 11/5. A wet field would impact the game stats terribly.
Rain would piss me off tremendously.
Great statistical analysis, BTW.
"Football has never been just a game to me. Never."
Paul William Bryant
The 10-day Weather Channel forecast
Friday – high 69, low 44, showers
Saturday – high 72, low 50, scattered showers
Since there is more rain in the forecast for Friday than for Saturday, that usually means that the Saturday rain would be early in the day. Of course, it’s a 10-day forecase, so large grain of salt.
I am also pulling for no rain, since I plan to be there, but rain would probably favor us, since it usually favors a running team. Both offenses are balanced overall, but drilling down, LSU’s best offensive success has been passing, and ours has been truly balanced.
Thanks
I still hate a rain game.
"Football has never been just a game to me. Never."
Paul William Bryant
I think it would benefit us more than LSU,
as their defense is predicated on speed.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." - George Carlin
by Slice of Life on Oct 27, 2011 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
So, when we knock Lee the fuck out
Will that be the 4th or 5th QB we’ve McCoyed? In all this confusion, I seem to have lost track.
"That rug really tied the room together."
I wish Bama fans would cool it with the celebrating injuries.
I want our D to affect and intimidate the QB as much as anyone, but bragging about knocking QBs out is a little Fairley-sih for my taste.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
by TexaninNYC on Oct 27, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I want them to remember the hits the next day
Not the next year . . . .
No offense
But I don’t give a shit. You better pass.
"That rug really tied the room together."
by pantsfucious on Oct 27, 2011 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, that says a lot about you.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
this team takes a lot of pride
in hitting people hard. squads that aren’t conditioned have seen attrition when playing us. admiring that isn’t the same thing as reveling in the misfortune of an opposing player being injured. if their offensive line isn’t protecting the quarterback, it’s not the alabama defense’s fault they are dipping into the walk-ons to find someone to take snaps.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
This ^^^ times 100
Well said.
Football is a contact sport, and by contact, I mean REAL contact. Unfortunately, injuries do occur and weight training/conditioning does minimize the overall degree of those injuries. But life is not always fair and occasionally a long-term injury results. Everyone that steps on the field should be ready to deliver AND recieve hard hits throughout the game. As long as they are clean hits (i.e. Non-Fairly-esque) then there can be no complaints.
Attempting to remove humor from posts since August 30, 2011
"The quarterback must go down, and he must go down hard."

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
That's what...

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Oct 29, 2011 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions
I want them to remember the hits the next day
not the next year . . .

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