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Statistical Snapshot: Alabama's Target & Catches

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Earlier this week Bill Connelly made available a huge database of information concerning passers through his SB Nation site Football Study Hall. The data examines this season's targets-and-catches or, more simply, how many times given players are being thrown to, how often they catch those passes and what yardage they earn once they do. The good folks over at the Pac 12 blog, Pacific Takes, has already used this data for a fantastic analysis of wideouts in their conference and I thought it might be helpful to look at the numbers for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Player Pos. Targets Catches Yards CatchRate Yds/Target Target Rate
Marquis Maze WR 40 22 262 55.00% 6.6 31.30%
Trent Richardson RB 15 11 148 73.30% 9.9 11.70%
Brad Smelley TE 14 9 103 64.30% 7.4 10.90%
Darius Hanks WR 14 6 52 42.90% 3.7 10.90%
Michael Williams TE 11 8 113 72.70% 10.3 8.60%
DeAndrew White WR 9 5 49 55.60% 5.4 7.00%
Kenny Bell WR 8 7 84 87.50% 10.5 6.30%
Eddie Lacy RB 7 6 89 85.70% 12.7 5.50%
Kevin Norwood WR 6 4 30 66.70% 5 4.70%
Christion Jones WR 4 3 49 75.00% 12.3 3.10%
Definitions
Targets = Catches + INCs targeting the given receiver
Catch Rate = Catches / Targets
Team Targets = Sum of all targets for a given team
Target Rate = Player Targets / Team Targets

There is no question that Marquis Maze has become the bell cow of the wide receiver corps. That, in and of itself, is not a surprise but the degree of it is. He's been targeted more than the next two Crimson Tide players combined - Trent Richardson and Brad Smelly - and 65% more than the next wide receiver. And having a running back and tight end doth not a power passing offense make

A further concern is the relatively mediocre catch-rate for the No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers Maze and Hanks. Connelly also notes that the 6.6 yards per target is "a very low total for a No. 1 target."

The prominence of the Tide tight ends on this list underscore the careful approach Offensive Coordinator is taking with McCarron. The dump-off options are there and he's taking them rather than taking the high reward/high risk plays down the field. The one number this analysis doesn't include is interceptions and McCarron has had ZERO since his first game as a starter.

Also, it should be noted, Michael Williams is having one hell of a season thus far.

These numbers dovetail with the data examined by Team Speed Kills yesterday. They argue that however positive McCarron's performance has been thus far, he's simply has been unable to get the ball to his two best receivers. And while he has the luxury of the Alabama running game to hold him over while he gains confidence as a passer, the transition needs to happen soon.

Coach Saban said this week that Alabama is looking for balance and wants to pass in situations that present McCarron an advantage, specifically first downs when the opposition is in some "safety down, middle-of-the-field closed" defense: i.e. expecting Trent to barrel through the tackles.

Yet those receptions have consistently been short gainers - often to running backs and tight ends - instead of lengthen-the-field passes to the wide receiver corps. As OTS has pointed out this season and in season's past, the lack of a vertical passing threat will give a top-flight defense (like LSU's) all the leeway they need to focus on stopping the Crimson Tide running game.

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Great chart

I’m kinda hoping that we’ll see the vertical threat develop over the next three games in preparation for LSU. With Arky at home and PSU and FLA on the road, I think there might have been concern about killing AJ’s confidence with too many deep targets that could have gotten picked off……possibly resulting in another external QB controversy (fans, media, other clutter).

If we succeed in developing a vertical threat, that would certainly help us against LSU. But like you alluded to, if we don’t show that the next three weeks, they’ll be able to load the box and stop our running game and short routes.

I think to this point, it’s mostly Saban’s philosophy of methodically moving the chains and wearing their defense down. But AJ certainly needs to show he’s capable of carrying the team on his shoulders should the need arise…..likely on November 5.

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~

by Skarth on Oct 5, 2011 10:18 AM CDT reply actions  

I don't see any problems with this

If a team will give us the checkdown throws we should take them. Any pass play the give us 4 or 5 yards will keep us ahead of the chains. With our running game the worst thing you can do is get behind the down and distance. If a defense comes up to stop the short throws we will see the longer ones open up.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. ~ Winston Churchill

by JIMatUA on Oct 5, 2011 10:21 AM CDT reply actions  

btw

where the heck is Kevin Norwood? he’s our only big receiver that’s not a tight end. is he hurt or just not getting into the rotation?

by RJYH on Oct 5, 2011 10:37 AM CDT reply actions  

Only reason em boys dont catch em all is cause the defense is inturferin and it dont never get called PAAAAAAWWWWWWLLLLLLLL!!!

Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.

by Todd on Oct 5, 2011 10:48 AM CDT reply actions  

don't forget: Hanks missed first two games

If he had played all 5 games at his current 3-game rates, he’d have 24 targets and 10 catches. 2nd on the team in targets and 3rd in catches just behind Richardson.

by Matt Dover on Oct 5, 2011 10:55 AM CDT reply actions  

That occurred to me.

Isn’t Maze the only WR who’s had significant playing time in all 5 games?

Dave Robertson is growing up to be the new Mariano Rivera. My two universes of fandom can finally unite!

by SoGladILeftTheACC on Oct 5, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

or if you break it down by games played

then maze has 8 targets per game while hanks has 4.7 and trent has 3. that seems a bit more reasonable.

Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All

by kleph on Oct 5, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

Good stuff, Kleph!

And thank you for bringing the TE situation to light. Remember how Coach Mac brought GMac along? It was Clint Walker, Colin Peek, screens to Ingram, Upchurch, and Trent , etc. We see AJ learning to manage the game much in the same manner, week-to-week. At some point, however, with the arm strength and touch AJ has and the outside speed of Maze, White, and Bell, it would not surprise me to see less high-percentage short routes, and more shots of the vertical variety being taken. The importance of the vertical threat will multiply exponentially as we approach November 5th. LSU has a good front seven, and plenty of speed in the secondary. They will load the box to force us to throw, then blitz from different looks to force turnovers. From what I’ve seen from our o-line, they are just now beginning to gel. If this is the case, then LSU may get the crap pounded out of them on the ground in the second half. I know that’s some serious forward-thinking, but I believe we will make their asses quit!

"...because you've got your mind right, and that's the way we like it." Nick Saban

by SRGBama on Oct 5, 2011 11:12 AM CDT reply actions  

Had to look this up and I'm still confused

Who’s Clint Walker?

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~

by Skarth on Oct 5, 2011 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, but he didn't play with McElroy as the starter though did he?

I think 2008 (JPW at QB) was his last season, if I’m not mistaken? If so, he only played with McElroy in garbage time. Or am I still missing something here?

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~

by Skarth on Oct 5, 2011 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

Some thoughts

- I thought we might spread it around a bit more after Julio departed, but it is starting to look as if focusing on a single receiver is the McElwaine scheme. (???)

- I liked our plain vanilla gameplan for Penn St., on the road in a huge house with a brand-spanking-new QB. But at some point you’ve got to consider AJ not so new and go downfield. I do think we will need to loosen up the LSU D with a vertical threat to get the running game going—we have 3 games and an off-week to prepare to do that.

- These numbers confirm my eyeball impression that Hanks just hasn’t done anything this year. I wonder if he’s healthy, because I expected more.

by glen55 on Oct 5, 2011 11:57 AM CDT reply actions  

AJ has thrown downfield,

but he’s been off the mark almost every time, maybe in fact every time. anyone have a stat on AJ’s completion rate at +25 yds? i suspect it’s around 0/8.

by RJYH on Oct 5, 2011 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

He had at least 2 that I can think of off the top of my head

unless I’m mistaken. First game post route to Maze for a TD, and the fake punt TD pass to Williams against Arky.

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~

by Skarth on Oct 5, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

And another TD pass to Richardson

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~

by Skarth on Oct 5, 2011 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

a quick check over at cfbstats shows

it is seven completions at 25+ yards but i’m not sure how many attempts.

Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All

by kleph on Oct 5, 2011 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Out of those 7 completions

6 have come in the first half. Seems logical (to me anyway) that this is to soften the defense up for our run game, coupled with the fact that the games are usually over by halftime anyway and we tend to be more concerned with ball control and clock management than trying to keep the DBs honest.

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~

by Skarth on Oct 5, 2011 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

i'm surprised, but

maybe i’m just hyper-focused on the missed opportunities. i think it’ll get better, for some reason he’s been a little out of sync at +25. def one of the brightest spots about this team is their tendency to improve each week. it’ll be interesting to see if they can maintain that trend during this three game stretch.

by RJYH on Oct 5, 2011 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

That includes screen passes and dumpoffs that went for big yardage, right?

That doesn’t mean he’s actually connected 25 yards downfield that many times.

God bless our Dark Lord.

by CarrotTop4 on Oct 5, 2011 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

ah, excellent point.

i don’t remember any +25 in the air other than the fake field goal. i could be wrong, it happens fairly often.

by RJYH on Oct 5, 2011 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

15 yards is enough . . .

to loosen them up. Bubble screens, flat passes, and 5-yard sit-down patterns/tight end squares does not do the job.

by glen55 on Oct 5, 2011 12:17 PM CDT reply actions  

I think we need to actually do more

screens and less down the field. Lets admit it. AJ is not that good going down the field. He is pretty good at dumping it off. So do what we are good at. And go to Williams 5 or 6 times a game not 2 times a game.

Furthermore, we need to get the ball in Mazes hands a bit more. But, rather than long passes we need to run him on reverses, in the wildcat, even line him up at RB and have him come out of the backfield on a screen.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Oct 5, 2011 12:36 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm no football expert

but with the couple of big-bodied receivers we have (assuming they could block well), would bubble and tunnel screens to Maze be a good choice? If nothing else, going with trips formation with the bubble/tunnel threat could open up the opposite side of the field for TR off-tackle.

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. ~General George S. Patton~

by Skarth on Oct 5, 2011 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

i totally agree

Williams is money in the bank this year.

by RJYH on Oct 5, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hitting a bomb is great

But going deep loosens up the D even when you don’t succeed. Just make ’em believe you will do it.

Also, FWIW, it looks to me as if McCarron is just playing it a little cautious by consistently slightly overthrowing the deep ball. It’s not like he has been all over the place; he hasn’t. i think once he gets a little more confidence and feel, he starts hitting the guys we are getting open downfield. I’m sure not ready to give up on it. An offense is seriously hobbled if it has no deep threat at all.

by glen55 on Oct 5, 2011 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

I had just assumed

that Deandrew White had tragically died after the first game and all the hype they were giving him. You’re saying he’s alive and still on the field? hmm, shocking.

by tyslothrop on Oct 5, 2011 2:55 PM CDT reply actions  

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