FanPost

Bama Five-Man Stats Through Five Games

ed - serious alabama basketball knowledge bombs from the fanposts.

The first full week of the basketball season is through and we can start to make some sense of the five-man statistics.  For a more in-depth review of what five-man stats are and why we use them, click here, but the important parts to remember are:

  1. We're using offensive and defensive efficiency in terms of points per possession.  It's a lot easier to score 80 points per game when you have 80 possessions per game rather than 60.  Looking at efficiency instead of raw points per game allows us to control for the pace at which a team plays.
  2. The NCAA average for points per possession is 1.03.
  3. I can not control for opponent quality.  The real stat people can.  So scoring 1 point per possession against the best defense in the country is the same as scoring 1 point per possession against the worst in these numbers.
  4. Sample size matters, a lot.  The more minutes a grouping has, the more accurate our conclusions will be.

With that out of the way, the charts for each game from this past week and a few others are after the jump.

Alabama 74, Oakland 57

Five-Man Group Time Possessions Points Pts/Poss Opp. Possessions Opp. Points Opp. Pts/Poss +/-> +/- per 40
Releford - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 14:29 22 30 1.36 24 31 1.29 -1 -2.86
Releford - Lacey - Cooper - Hankerson - Mitchell 3:15 5 5 1.00 4 1 0.25 4 53.33
Lacey - Randolph - Hankerson - Mitchell - Jacobs 2:32 3 2 0.67 4 2 0.50 0 0.00
Eblen - Lacey - Cooper - Hankerson - Engstrom 2:25 4 2 0.50 4 5 1.25 -3 -60.00
Releford - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Engstrom 2:21 4 4 1.00 4 3 0.75 1 20.00
Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Cooper - Jacobs 2:15 4 2 0.50 3 0 0.00 2 40.00
Releford - Lacey - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 1:58 4 3 0.75 3 2 0.67 1 20.00
Lacey - Cooper - Hankerson - Green - Engstrom 1:46 4 2 .50 4 5 1.25 -3 -60.00
Lacey - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 1:42 3 7 2.33 3 0 0.00 7 140.00
Relford - Lacey - Hankerson - Mitchell - Green 1:32 4 5 1.25 3 2 0.67 3 60.00
Eblen - Lacey - Blackledge - Jacobs - Engstrom 1:13 2 2 1.00 2 3 1.50 -1 -40.00
Lacey - Randolph - Hankerson - Green - Engstrom 1:03 1 1 1.00 2 0 0.00 1 40.00
Total 40:00 65 74 1.14 65 57 .88 8 8.00

 

This was a big game for the Tide as it represented their best offensive output of the season's first five games.  The starting five had a huge role, putting in more than one-third of the teams minutes.  But while they excelled offensively, averaging 1.36 points per possession, they struggled on the other end, resulting in a +/- of -1.  Thankfully, the other groupings came through on the defensive side of the ball, giving up only 26 points in 41 possessions for an average of .63 points per possession.

 

Alabama 62, Maryland 42

 

Five-Man Group Time Possessions Points Pts/Poss Opp. Possessions Opp. Points Opp. Pts/Poss +/-> +/- per 40
Releford - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 7:27 13 12 0.92 11 1 0.09 11 62.86
Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Jacobs 6:24 8 10 1.25 8 6 0.75 4 26.67
Lacey - Randolph - Hankerson - Mitchell - Engstrom 5:58 8 10 1.25 7 2 0.29 8 53.33
Lacey - Cooper - Hankerson - Mitchell - Engstrom 3:01 4 10 2.50 4 4 1.00 6 80.00
Lacey - Cooper - Hankerson - Jacobs - Green 2:37 5 3 0.60 4 4 1.00 -1 -13.33
Eblen - Blackledge - Hankerson - Jacobs - Engstrom 1:53 3 5 1.67 4 7 1.75 -2 -40.00
Total 40:00 59 62 1.05 60 42 0.70 20 20.00

 

Foul trouble early and often set the tone for the Maryland game.  With neither JaMychal Green nor Trevor Releford putting in a half's worth of minutes on the floor, Anthony Grant had to get creative with his personnel matchups.  Obviously, the biggest benefactor was Nick Jacobs, who played almost 18 minutes and spent more than six minutes on the court with the other four members of what I'll call the Tide's "second core" (Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Green).  Trevor Lacey also got a lot of action, with over 24 minutes played, including almost 14 minutes at the point. 

It is unfortunate that Green and Releford had so much trouble with fouls, because when the starting five was on the floor, they dominated.  Also, any time you see Ben Eblen and Keon Blackledge on the court together for nearly two minutes, good things have probably happened.

As a note, I'm still figuring out how many units I'll include for each game, but because of the crazy number of fouls in this game there were six units that played roughly one minute each.  For that reason, I've limited this table to those units that had at least three offensive possessions.

 

Alabama 70, Wichita State 60

 

Five-Man Group Time Possessions Points Pts/Poss Opp. Possessions Opp. Points Opp. Pts/Poss +/-> +/- per 40
Releford - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 11:00 20 21 1.05 19 17 0.89 4 14.55
Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Green 6:51 17 18 1.06 15 16 1.07 2 11.43
Lacey - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 3:13 5 8 1.60 6 1 0.17 7 93.33
Releford - Hankerson - Mitchell - Jacobs - Green 2:49 4 5 0.80 4 3 0.75 1 13.33
Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Jacobs - Green 2:49 4 2 0.50 4 0 0.00 2 26.67
Releford - Lacey - Randoph - Mitchell - Engstrom 2:24 2 0 0.00 5 2 0.40 -2 -40.00
Releford - Randolph - Hankerson - Mitchell - Engstrom 2:24 4 4 1.00 3 4 1.33 0 0.00
Total 40:00 68 70 1.03 69 60 0.87 10 10.00

 

Things were a little more back to normal against the Shockers with a clear six man rotation to emerge.  The starting five paced the team, putting up slightly better offensive efficiency numbers and slightly worse defensive efficiency numbers than the rest of the team.  Trevor Lacey has quickly established himself as the sixth man, as he and the starting five were on the court in some combination for almost 23 minutes while scoring a +/- of +11, accounting for the entire margin of victory.

 

Alabama 65, Purdue 56

 

Five-Man Group Time Possessions Points Pts/Poss Opp. Possessions Opp. Points Opp. Pts/Poss +/-> +/- per 40
Releford - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 14:29 22 24 1.09 21 16 0.76 8 22.86
Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Green 6:52 12 14 1.17 12 15 1.25 -1 -5.71
Releford - Randolph - Mitchell - Green - Engstrom 3:36 5 8 1.60 5 5 1.00 3 30.00
Eblen - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Jacobs 2:45 3 7 2.33 4 4 1.00 3 40.00
Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Jacobs 2:43 5 5 1.00 6 7 1.17 -2 -26.67
Releford - Lacey - Cooper - Mitchell - Jacobs 2:03 2 o 0.00 2 2 1.00 -2 -40.00
Releford - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Jacobs 1:44 3 5 1.67 2 1 0.50 4 80.00
Total 40:00 60 65 1.08 59 56 0.95 9 9.00

 

If there was any doubt what the core of this team was going to be moving forward, the Purdue game put it to rest.  Trevor Releford, Levi Randolph, Tony Mitchell, and JaMychal Green were on the court together for over 26 minutes.  Cooper, Lacey, Engstrom and the others floated in and out, but this seems  to be the core of the team for now.  Obviously the season is very young and this could all very well change, but expect to see these four as the leading the Tide, so long as they continue to put up 1.12 PPP and allow only .90 PPP. 

 

Cumulative (5-0)

Five-Man Group Time Possessions Points Pts/Poss Opp. Possessions Opp. Points Opp. Pts/Poss +/-> +/- per 40
Releford - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 56:11 91 95 1.04 89 74 0.83 21 15.00
Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Green 21:05 41 49 1.20 39 36 0.92 13 24.76
Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Jacobs 12:00 17 20 1.18 18 15 0.83 5 16.67
Lacey - Randolph - Hankerson - Mitchell - Engstrom 7:14 9 12 1.33 9 2 0.22 10 57.14
Lacey - Randolph - Hankerson - Mitchell - Jacobs 6.20 8 7 0.88 9 4 0.44 3 20.00
Releford - Randolph - Mitchell - Green - Engstrom 4:58 7 10 1.43 8 8 1.00 2 16.00
Lacey - Randolph - Cooper - Mitchell - Green 4:55 8 15 1.88 9 1 0.11 14 112.00
Releford - Lacey - Randolph - Mitchell - Engstrom 4:50 5 0 0.00 7 2 0.29 -2 -16.00
Total 200:00 313 335 1.07 314 259 0.82 76 15.20

 

We're still very early, so only eight rotations have played more than 4 minutes this season.  The starting lineup has obviously seen the most time, averaging better than 11 minutes per game together (which would probably be more were it not for foul issues in a couple of games.  So far, however, they have been thoroughly average, at least when compared to the rest of the team which, to be fair, has been above average offensively and simply excellent on the defensive side of the ball.  These eight units have played 56 percent of the team's minutes and not a one of them has been below average defensively. 

The second most common unit has Lacey coming for Cooper and there has been a clear difference thus far, with offensive efficiency improving by 16 percentage points and defensive efficiency falling by 9 percentage points. 

I have no idea what to say about the combo of Lacey-Randolph-Hankerson-Mitchell-Engstrom.  They had a garbage time possession in each of the first two games and then put together a great 6 minutes against Maryland (with Releford and Green in foul trouble) where they gave up only 2 points in 7 possessions.  I don't know that that will last long-term.

There are obviously far more units than what I put in this table.  If you are curious about any particular group, just let me know and I'll post it in the comments.

 

Releford-Lacey

 

Five-Man Group Time Possessions Points Pts/Poss Opp. Possessions Opp. Points Opp. Pts/Poss +/-> +/- per 40
Releford and Lacey Together 52:48 87 88 1.01 85 66 0.78 22 16.60
Without Both Releford and Lacey 147:12 226 247 1.09 229 193 0.84 54 14.69

 

By request, this looks at the Tide when both Releford and Lacey are on the floor, compared to when they are not playing together.  Thus far, they have performed below the team average on offense and better than average on defense.  This may seem at odds with what I just wrote about replacing Cooper with Lacey but it's basically the result of a couple of bad runs.  Two of their units have combined to go score 2 points in 11 possessions over 8 minutes.  Putting Releford and Lacey with Randolph and Mitchell (regardless of who plays the 5) results in an offensive PPP of 1.10, just a bit better than average.

 

Future

I am tracking how we play when Mitchell plays the 3 compared to when he plays the 4, but there's simply not enough data right now (and most of it from the Purdue game) to glean anything meaningful. 

Next time, I'm planning on looking at the big men, seeing how they play on their own and in combination.

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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