The Alabama Crimson Tide November Report
With the Iron Bowl complete, Alabama's 2011 regular season has come to a close. The particular post-season destination has yet to be determined but, for now, lets take a look back at where this squad stands in comparison with the rest of college football after a dozen games. For comparison sake, here are the September and October versions of this rundown.
Here are all the categories from the NCAA's 2011 FBS Football Statistics page that Alabama appears in the top ten.
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As you probably have heard, the Alabama defense is pretty darned good this year. How good? How about 1992-level good. You have to go back to Gene Stallings National Championship squad to find an Alabama defense that performed better than the 2011 version - and even then it's only a difference of degree.
On the offensive side of the ball, the engine that makes it all go is Number 3. With the bowl game still ahead, Trent Richardson holds the school season rushing touchdown record and he's just 75 yards shy of breaking Mark Ingram's season rushing record. Without a doubt, this season he's has absolutely lived up to the considerable hype that has followed him his whole career at the Capstone.
And a testament to the focus of this squad are the extremely low penalty and turnover's lost numbers. Coach Saban preaches the elimination of mistakes and few teams he's led onto the field have done it better.
After the jump are the rest of the Alabama team and individual rankings.
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What this graph tells us is that April 26 is going to be bittersweet as hell. Between the guys we know who will be high draft picks and the seniors whose production earned them a place on this list, attrition next year will be brutal. But lets not get ahead of ourselves...
One thing that sticks out is how AJ McCarron has emerged as a very reliable passer. He may not be in Greg McElroy's league when it comes to passing efficiency but he's done quite well for his inaugural season in the fire against SEC defenses. Make no mistake, there's still a ton of work to be done but if he can finally develop that vertical passing threat we all dream about next season we'll be cooking with hot grease.
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The consensus about the Alabama offense this year is that the running game is world class and the passing game mediocre. There's nothing in these numbers to disabuse you of those notions. But the end result is an offense that's in the top third of college football in terms of yards and inside 16th in terms of points. That's not something to sniff at.
What matters more is that Alabama's 3rd down efficiency is just outside of the top ten nationally and leads the conference. In fact, this year's squad performs significantly better in this department than both 2010 (44.37) and 2009 (39.18). When the chains need to be moved, this unit finds ways to get it done. That's also reflected in the red zone numbers although not to the same degree due to the smaller sample size.
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Well, pretty much the entirety of this section is already posted above its worth noting a few categories that aren't in the top tier nationally. One surprising ranking is passes intercepted where Alabama is tied for 42nd and slap dab in the middle of the SEC pack. Over the past two year's Alabama has been one of the country's leaders in this category but this year the numbers are about half those final marks. It's an interesting development for such a dominant defense, to be sure.
Even more perplexing is the woeful fumble recovery numbers. Now we've looked at the details of the turnover statistics in the past and noted this is an extremely random statistic but there are only eight teams in all of college football who have recovered fewer fumbles than Alabama this year. Yet the Crimson Tide's fumble recovery percentage is 40% and that's a lot closer to the mean - just as we expected in the wake of last year's bizarre numbers.
Once again, sacks and tackles for loss stats are less than one would expect but, by now, we've seen enough success out of the defensive front seven to trust Coach Saban's admonition that these two categories are ancillary to the performance of the unit.
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Yes, punting and kickoff return defense are just about where you expect if you've been watching at all for the past few months. But, as you saw at the start of this post, Marquis Maze is in the top ten in the nation for punt returns, giving a boost to Alabama's KO return numbers and turbocharging the punt return totals.
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This year's D...
…I’m having a hard time not calling them the best I’ve ever seen. The main thing that separates them from the ‘92 D is the game against Georgia Southern. Ima go out on a limb and say that, if we’d played them with a healthy team, they would have had less than half their rushing yards and failed to score. Still, this is one scary D. I heart them.
Also, I think our special teams coverage has been pretty good. If they had kickers/punters who performed consistently at a high level, they may have looked like an elite unit. That said, I’ve been encouraged by the improvement of our kickers this season…sans that nauseating kick to the 17 against the boogs (I mean, comon Cade, seriously).
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 1, 2011 9:28 AM CST reply actions
Purely eyeball, yes this is the best defense I've ever seen.
Inanity @gothlaw
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2011 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
You can say that again....
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 1, 2011 4:02 PM CST up reply actions
Purely eyeball, yes this is the best defense I've ever seen.
Inanity @gothlaw
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2011 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
Twice we’ve given up KRTDs.
I think that is 6 in 4 years now. And we had a FG blocked.
"The same things win today that have always won, and they will win years from now. The only difference is the losers have a whole new bunch of excuses why they don’t win or can’t win."-Bear Bryant
Robot Chicken Star Wars should be canon.
by the thin red line on Dec 2, 2011 12:07 AM CST up reply actions
That GSU game was poorly scheduled.
We were better against the run this year than 1992 prior to that game.
We’ve had some pretty good defenses since 1992, with 2009 being the best until now. Do we have to wait another 20 years before Coach Smart produces another one of similar quality?
"The same things win today that have always won, and they will win years from now. The only difference is the losers have a whole new bunch of excuses why they don’t win or can’t win."-Bear Bryant
Robot Chicken Star Wars should be canon.
by the thin red line on Dec 2, 2011 12:58 AM CST up reply actions
total yd/gm for 92 isn't averging in the spreadsheet
I think it’s just a copy from the cell above.
no worries
thanks for double checking.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
NFL scouts must be drooling over Bama's players
Pretty soon, we’ll be pulling just a little bit for every team in the League.
"Football has never been just a game to me. Never."
Paul William Bryant
I’d have to give the edge to this D over 92’s (and possibly any in college football history), because today’s game asks more from each player than ever before. Not to take anything away from Copeland and Company, but they weren’t dealing with the high powered offenses of that we see today.
by BSherrod on Dec 1, 2011 10:39 AM CST via iPhone app reply actions
Fun and Gun
wasn’t too shabby. Miami, either.
"Football has never been just a game to me. Never."
Paul William Bryant
True...
…except on the days they played us.
/toofullofalabama
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 1, 2011 4:03 PM CST up reply actions
2011 Alabama
Would beat 1992 by about 10 points. No way a Sophomore Barker or Lassic scores on us. Palmer probably would may have gotten a cheap return TD, but that’s about it.
Inanity @gothlaw
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2011 12:02 PM CST reply actions
But apparently . . .
. . . our 1977 and 1978 wishbone attack would have killed this defense.
Especially given -23 years to prepare for it!
God bless our Dark Lord.
by CarrotTop4 on Dec 1, 2011 12:45 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It's interesting that several pundits claimed . . .
. . . that we spent almost no time preparing for Ga. Sou. I wonder how true that was. It certainly looked like it, key injuries notwithstanding.
Well we had spent all week preparing for Williams to play the nose,
and then he got sick and couldn’t play. So not only were we missing 3 of our 4 usual nose tackles, but the one that did play wasn’t really prepared. So yeah.
God bless our Dark Lord.
Awesome +1
Inanity @gothlaw
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2011 2:19 PM CST up reply actions
A stat the NCAA doesn't keep
and should, because it is pretty revealing about running backs:
total yards rushing and receiving
I looked at the rushing and receiving stats, and I’m next thing to certain that Trent is 2nd in the nation with 1910 yards. David Wilson of VA Tech has 2056.
AJ McCarron
22nd in the nation in passing efficiency (by far the stat you use to evaluate QBs).
That’s a pretty good number for a guy who doesn’t have a feature receiver. I’m not sure we have a single (eligible) receiver on the squad who will ever be a first-day draft pick.
AJ deserves more credit than he gets. He has gotten better as the season went along. He was shaky against Florida and Mississippi St., but even his bad games weren’t as bad as McElroy’s mid-season stretch in 2009. I take issue with anyone who says he played poorly in regulation against LSU, and he “played poorly” in OT, but how many conclusions should you draw from a single series of downs?
Maze may go late 2nd/3rd
He’s a play maker. Tough. Good slot and receiving guy.
Inanity @gothlaw
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
ooops. Meant return.
Inanity @gothlaw
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
I think McCarron has made good decisions for the most part and I don’t think he’s been rattled all year, even after mistakes. For all GMac’s poise, he did have some headgames in 2009.
I gotta say...
…I’m still not completely sure how I feel about A?J! in the long term, but he’s exceeded my expectations with his play this year. Given his lack of experience and playing the best defenses in America, I’d have to say he’s done an excellent job this year.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Dec 1, 2011 4:06 PM CST up reply actions
McCarron v McElroy passing efficiency stats
McCarron’s passing efficiency is 149.8.
McElroy’s was 140.55 his first year as a starter, 2009. He improved it a good bit to 168.98 as a senior.
I’d say that having a 10-point better passing efficiency as a first-year starter is pretty good, especially when you take into account that McElroy was throwing to Julio Jones.
Passing efficiency is by far the best single stat for QBs, but one important element it doesn’t take into account is sacks. Rolltide.com doesn’t track stats by QB, but as a team we took 1.93 sacks/game over 2009/2010 and have taken 1.25 sacks/game this year. Of course, that difference could easily be accounted for by the new OL coach + turnover in personnel, but personally my eyeballs tell me that McCarron is noticably better at getting rid of it than McElroy was.
I think Sims has been sacked im almost every game he’s played in.
At least at the beginning of the year.
"The same things win today that have always won, and they will win years from now. The only difference is the losers have a whole new bunch of excuses why they don’t win or can’t win."-Bear Bryant
Robot Chicken Star Wars should be canon.
by the thin red line on Dec 2, 2011 12:10 AM CST up reply actions
So AJ
has fewer than the stated total.
"The same things win today that have always won, and they will win years from now. The only difference is the losers have a whole new bunch of excuses why they don’t win or can’t win."-Bear Bryant
Robot Chicken Star Wars should be canon.
by the thin red line on Dec 2, 2011 12:59 AM CST up reply actions
I think you're right and Sims has several of the sacks we've allowed
I thought about saying that in my post, but I can’t quantify it so I left it out. But I do think McCarron is very good at acting quickly enough to avoid pressure, the best we’ve had at that in a while.
Except for one play.
In the Iron Bowl.
"The same things win today that have always won, and they will win years from now. The only difference is the losers have a whole new bunch of excuses why they don’t win or can’t win."-Bear Bryant
Robot Chicken Star Wars should be canon.
by the thin red line on Dec 2, 2011 6:51 PM CST up reply actions
Over at Football Study Hall and Football Outsider
There is good analysis. The former site is SBN d provides a link to the latter.
Alabama is #2 DFEI (Defensive Fremeau Efficiency Index). LSU is #1, while OSU is #3. While Alabama is #1 for Defensive Efficiency, First Downs, Available Yards, Explosive Drives, and Value Drives, and #3 for Methodical Drives, it is #2 overall thanks to being only #92 for Defensive Previous SOS.
OSU’s otherwise mediocre D is helped out by #20 Defensive Previous SOS and #6 Defensive Future SOS.
Defensively we’re #1 for Passing S&P+ and Passing Downs S&P+ and #2 for Rushing S&P+ and Standard S&P+, with an overall #2 S&P+ rating, behind LSU. OSU is only #19 overall.
Alabama’s overall Offensive FEI is #18, while LSU is #12 and OSU only #24. Overall Game Efficiency has LSU #2, Alabama #3, and OSU #7. FEI has LSU #1, OSU #2, and Alabama #3 thanks to Special Teams, Field Position, SOS.
For Overall S&P+, LSU is #1, while Alabama is #2, and OSU is #6. LSU has a score of 301.4, Alabama 301.2.
Combined FEI and S&P+, otherwise known as F/+, has LSU #1(#2 O, 2 D, #3 ST), Alabama #2 (#10 O, #1 D, #80 ST), and OSU only #4 (# 9 O, #6 D, #13 ST).
I doubt any in America is awake to read this, or even would stay awake reading this.
"The same things win today that have always won, and they will win years from now. The only difference is the losers have a whole new bunch of excuses why they don’t win or can’t win."-Bear Bryant
Robot Chicken Star Wars should be canon.
by the thin red line on Dec 2, 2011 2:06 AM CST reply actions

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