Weekend Bubble Watch
by rugman11 on Feb 19, 2011 12:11 PM CST
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Printed. - bumped from fanposts, good stuff to keep in mind over the weekend.
Well, it’s that time. With only three weekends to go before the SEC Tournament, the Tide are poised to make a serious run at the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, our early-season performance has landed us squarely (and likely permanently) on the bubble. As such, it’s time to start scoreboard watching. Obviously Alabama needs to keep winning if they want to make the tourney, but it doesn’t hurt to have some other rooting interests along the way as well. So here I present the 21 teams with whom the Tide are competing for the 14 seeds in the 10-12 range. All current standings are determined by The Bracket Project which has collected data from 63 different bracket predictions to create one mass projection. The Tide are currently ranked as the fourth team out, averaging an 11th seed, but projected to be in on only 19 ballots.
10 seeds -
Old Dominion Monarchs (21-6, 12-4 CAA): vs. Cleveland State (Sun)
Old Dominion is in pretty good shape with an RPI of 31 and a recent win over precarious bubble team VCU. Barring losses by the Monarchs to James Madison and William & Mary in their last three games (unlikely is an understatement), the Tide will have a tough time passing ODU by season’s end.
Rooting Interest: It’s Bracket Busters time, so the Monarchs are hosting the Horizon League’s Cleveland State on Sunday afternoon (12:00 ESPN2). Cleveland State is currently projected to win the Horizon League, but if they don’t, they would be in the next four out, so our best bet here is for ODU to get a decent home win and, hopefully, knock the Vikings off of the bubble.
#24 Utah State Aggies (24-3, 12-1 WAC): @ #23 St. Mary’s (Sat)
The Aggies are a very interesting case and, apparently, the subject of much discussion at the faux-selection summit, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Utah State is currently ranked in the Top 25 and possesses an RPI of 29. But the 167th ranked schedule is troubling to the say the least. There will be little help coming from their conference either as no other team has more than 14 wins, so their only remaining chance for a good win will come this weekend at St. Mary’s.
Rooting Interest: The Aggies are the only WAC team with even the slightest chance of earning an at-large bid so, obviously, we want desperately for them to win their conference tournament. However, in terms of regular season action (and this is the case with all of these one- or two-bid conference leaders), we want them to lose now, so in the event that they don’t win their conference tournament, we may still have a chance to leapfrog them. That said, St. Mary’s is currently projected as an eight seed, so the Gaels are the team to root for Saturday night (8:00 ESPN2), even if it won’t damage the Aggies much.
Georgia Bulldogs (17-8 6-5 SEC): @ Tennessee (Sat)
The Bulldogs did not have a good week, missing their chance for a résumé-defining win against Vandy and needing to block a potential game-tying three against the Gamecocks after allowing USCe to score only 9 points in the first half. Still, like most bubble teams their RPI is higher than Bama’s (37) and they’ll need to fall a ways before we can pass them. That said, they still have road games left with Tennessee, Florida, and the Tide, so the opportunity is there.
Rooting Interest: As much as it pains me to say, the Vols are basically a tourney lock with a top-25 RPI and the toughest schedule in the country. Gotta root for Tennessee (12:00 CBS).
Marquette Golden Eagles (15-11, 6-7 Big East): vs. Seton Hall (Sat)
The Golden Eagles would be the eleventh Big East team in the tourney, which tells you more about the weakness of the other power conferences this year than the greatness of that particular one. Thankfully, Marquette still has three opportunities left to crap the bed with a home-and-home against Seton Hall and a visit from Providence. If UCONN and Cincinnati can avoid losing to the Eagles and they pick up one or two of those bad losses, we might have a chance.
Rooting Interest: Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, Matey (8:00 ESPN3)!
11 Seeds –
Kansas State Wildcats (17-9, 5-6 Big XII): vs. Oklahoma (Sat)
The Wildcats got a huge win Monday night, toppling the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks at home in impressive fashion (84-68). Despite this truly disappointing season from a team ranked in the Preseason Top 5, with that scalp under their belt, it will be tough to ignore K-State on Selection Sunday. Still, they have a few more chances to trip up (Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, Iowa State), so the opportunity is still there for the Tide to pass them up.
Rooting Interest: Boomer Sooner (3:00 ESPN3)
Virginia Tech Hokies (17-7, 7-4 ACC): @ Virginia (Sat)
The Hokies actually have a very similar résumé to the Tide but with the seasons reversed. Tech started out strong, running up a 10-3 non-conference record before falling back to earth and a 7-4 record in a (weaker than usual) ACC. Like the Tide, their RPI is low (65) and their SoS is weak (117). Our best wins are better (UK and UT compared to FSU and Oklahoma State), but our losses are worse. The only potential big win left for the Hokies is a home date with Duke next weekend. Otherwise the have a couple of can’t loses (Virginia and Wake Forest) and a couple of bubble teams (BC and Clemson).
Rooting Interest: Rivalry week sends the Hokies to Charlottesville, where a loss to the 12-13 Cavs would be very damaging to their resume (12:00 ESPN3).
Boston College Eagles (16-9, 6-5 ACC): @ #19 North Carolina (Sat)
The Eagles are in dire straits, having lost five of their last eight, including three games that could have moved them into lock territory. The last two weeks don’t look terribly frightening, but their last chance for a good win is this weekend on the road in Chapel Hill. If BC can pick up a win there, they’ll be in good shape, otherwise they’re going to have to beat up on the bottom half of the ACC and hope for some help from everyone else.
Rooting Interest: The Tar Heels are a lock, so I’ll be rooting for them, even though I still haven’t forgiven Roy Williams (3:00 ESPN).
Memphis Tigers (20-6, 8-3 C-USA): @ Rice (Sat)
Memphis could easily fall off the bubble and then make it back into the tournament with a win in a weak conference tournament. The Tigers beat up on a weak non-conference slate, losing each of their only three games of consequence by double-digits (Kansas, Georgetown, @ Tennessee). Their only three wins against top-50 RPI teams are against UAB and Southern Miss, twice. They still have fellow-bubbler UTEP on tap, but no other team on the remaining schedule is more than one game over .500.
Rooting Interest: Like with the Aggies, it would be good to have Memphis win the conference tournament, but until then, we’ll root for the Owls (7:00).
12 Seeds –
Richmond Spiders (20-7, 9-3 A-10): St. Bonaventure (Sun)
The Spiders missed their last good chance for a quality win, losing by 20 at #25 Temple last night (a game that has not yet been factored in to any of the bracket projections). A win over Duquesne is Richmond’s only remaining chance for an RPI boost as the rest of their schedule is filled with can’t lose games that won’t much help their already poor numbers (71 RPI, 190 SoS).
Rooting Interest: The Bonnies have no shot at the tourney, so they’re the pick (2:00).
Michigan State Spartans (14-11, 6-7 Big Ten): vs. Illinois (Sat)
Like Richmond, Sparty missed its chance for a big road win this week, losing by ten to Ohio State. They’ve still got three games left against potential tourney teams, so wins there would significantly boost their chances. But for a team that has lost six of their last eight and sits barely above .500, losing more than one of those games would likely knock them to back of the pack.
Rooting Interests: Illinois isn’t yet a lock, but they’re being projected as a 7 seed, so Chief Wahoo has my backing (8:00 ESPN).
Colorado State Rams (18-7, 8-3 MWC): vs. UNLV (Sat)
The Rams still need one more big win, but they certainly have the chance to get it, with upcoming games against UNLV, BYU, and SDSU. Unfortunately, the latter two are on the road against Top 10 teams. If CSU can pull an upset over either the Cougars or the Aztecs, they would be in pretty good shape. Losing all three of these games, though, would likely knock them off of the bubble.
Rooting Interest: The Rebels are bubble-ish, but they’re currently slotted in as an 8 seed, so we have to root for them to knock the Rams down a couple of spots (6:00).
Wichita State Shockers (22-5, 13-3 MVC): vs. VCU (Fri)
The Shockers don’t have a lot of quality wins and their numbers are unimpressive (54 RPI, 112 SoS). Fortunately for them, when you have 22 wins, people tend to focus less on the losses. Still, this is not your older brother’s Missouri Valley Conference and they will not be putting five teams in the NCAA tourney. In fact, they’ll be lucky to get two. WSU is at the top of that list, but they are just riding the edge of the bubble.
Rooting Interest: This is a tough call, as the Shockers are hosting CAG’s former team, Virginia Commonwealth, who are themselves still in the running (tenth team out). A win by WSU would effectively end VCU’s at-large chances, but given how slim those are to begin with, I think we have to root for the Rams (6:00 ESPN2).
Missouri State Bears (21-6, 13-3 MVC): @ Valparaiso (Sat)
The Bears are in rough shape. They have only one real win to hang their hats on (@ Wichita State) and some very weak overall numbers (51 RPI, 153 SoS). They probably have to beat the Shockers at home next weekend to even entertain a bid and, other than that game, they only have a pair of can’t loses left.
Rooting Interest: A loss to Valpo probably moves Bama ahead of MSU, so the Crusaders are the call here (4:00 ESPN2).
UTEP Miners (19-6, 7-3 C-USA): vs. Houston (Sat)
UTEP sits precariously as the 68th team right now. They have no good wins but no bad losses. Their season will likely be defined in the next week, as they play four games in eight days due to a postponement during Snowmageddon (pt. 1) two weeks ago. The Miners will probably need to win five of their last six if they want to earn an at-large bid.
Rooting Interest: The Cougars could knock UTEP out of the tourney this weekend (8:00).
First Four Out –
Baylor Bears (17-8, 6-5 Big XII): vs. Texas Tech (Sat)
The numbers are iffy for the Bears (59 RPI, 59 SoS) and their road ahead is tough. They have a pair of can’t lose games left with Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and a trio of Top 25 teams in Mizzou, Texas A&M, and Texas. Baylor will likely have to pick up two out of those three if they want to snag a 12 seed.
Rooting Interest: The Red Raiders are 11-15 and could end Baylor’s hopes this weekend. Guns up (7:00 ESPN3)!
UAB Blazers (18-7, 8-4 C-USA): vs. UCF (Sat)
The Blazers have yet to notch a win against the RPI Top 50, and will only have one more chance next weekend in Hattiesburg. There are only a couple of bad losses, but no real good wins, so it’s tough to make an argument for or against UAB.
Rooting Interest: Todd might ban me for saying you should root against UAB, but there you have it (5:00).
Butler Bulldogs (19-9, 11-5 Horizon): @ Illinois-Chicago (Sat)
Last year’s national runners-up have not had as good of a run this year, piling up middling to bad losses by the bucketful (Evansville, UW-Milwaukee twice, Wright State, Valpo, Youngstown State). They don’t have any more chances to prove themselves, with only games against 7-21 Illinois-Chicago and 15-12 Loyola (IL) left, so they will likely remain on the outside looking in barring a Horizon League championship.
Rooting Interest: A loss to the Flames tomorrow would put the Bulldogs away, so let’s hope for that (1:00 ESPN3).
Next Four Out –
Oklahoma State (16-9, 4-7 Big XII): vs. #17 Texas A&M (Sat)
With a 4-7 conference record and losses in seven of their last ten games, the Cowboys are going down in a hurry. Their only chances at an at-large bid will come in the next four days when they host the #17 Aggies and travel to Lawrence to face the (for now) top-ranked Jayhawks. If they don’t pick up a win in one of those two games, they’re done.
Rooting Interest: Aggies all the way (8:00 ESPNU).
Clemson Tigers (17-9, 6-6 ACC): @ Miami (FL) (Sun)
Clemson may actually have torpedoed their chances last night by losing to 14-11 NC State. Unless they run the table with wins over Duke and Virginia Tech and make a deep run in the ACC tourney, they’re done.
Rooting Interest: Or the Hurricanes could just put them out of their misery now (2:30 ESPNU).
Washington State Huskies (17-9, 7-7 PAC-10): @ Arizona State (Sat)
The Huskies missed their last chance for a big win last night losing at the 13th-ranked Arizona Wildcats. Like Clemson, they’ll need to win out with victories over tourney teams UCLA and Washington and make a deep tournament run to even sniff the bubble.
Rooting Interest: Or the Sun Devils could just put them out of their misery now (1:00).
Gonzaga Bulldogs (18-9, 8-3 WCC): vs. San Francisco (Sat)
It’s Gonzaga, so they’re going to be in the discussion. Realistically, their season will come down to next Wednesday’s game at St. Mary’s. If they win, they stay on the bubble. If they lose, it’s over.
Rooting Interest: See Clemson and Washington State (7:00).
FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.
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TL;DR version -
Root for Old Dominion and against everybody else.
You're so awesome.
RBR's King of Hip-Hop...
by SpockJenkins on Feb 18, 2011 12:42 PM CST up reply actions
Fantastic post.
We need to get this bumped to the Front, people. Rec away!
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Feb 18, 2011 12:35 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Go Hoos!
This Virginia born Tide fan would love to see the Cavs kill the cHokies dreams of a NCAA berth. And if that helps Bama, all the more reason to root for UVA. Roll Tide!
by RammerJammer23 on Feb 18, 2011 12:59 PM CST reply actions
And VCU takes out Wichita this evening.
Kind of a toss-up on that one, given that VCU is still at the razor’s edge of the bubble and I think the Shockers will still win the MVC.
Here's why I won't rec this post...
Gotta root for Tennessee
F. That. S.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Feb 19, 2011 10:59 AM CST reply actions
Damn straight.
I hate tennessee.
by Queen of the Universe on Feb 22, 2011 9:14 AM CST up reply actions
Excellent post rugman
Only thing I would add is that Georgia is a tough call right now. On the one hand, they are a fellow bubble team, for sure, and in that case it would open up one more spot for us if they lose games. On the other hand, and perhaps more importantly, they would give us our best remaining chance to pick up a third win over a tournament team when we play them in Coleman in the final game of the regular season if they can improve their stock. The thing we need even more than fellow bubble teams to lose is for us to pick up at minimum one more game against a tourney team. But then on the other, other hand, the road win at Tennessee is our best quality win right now, and so if they can improve their standing and move up to a 5 seed or so, which is definitely possible if they close strong, it would make that win look even better.
Also, don’t forget we played Oklahoma State, so we don’t want them to lose too much, but then again we are competing with them for a spot, so it’s win-win or lose-lose either way.
Good post...
…wish I hadn’t missed it under the Toomer’s BS, but def FP material. Good work.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
Georgia beats Tennessee on top of old Smoky
Could be a good match up in T-Town.
huge for the Dawgs
that hurts us that UT lost, but if UGA can stay in tourney position, beating them in the final game would be massive for us
Yep
It almost makes up for the loss at home to Vandy. The Vols are in a tailspin, having lost 4 out of their last five, including 2 at home.
And the Vols have to go to Vandy . . .
. . . on Tuesday. They’re about to lock up 5th in the East, which is fine with me; I’d rather have Georgia on our side of the tourney bracket than the Vols.
we could play UGA two games in a row
that will be the case if they finish 4th in the East, which is very possible after their win today.
For us . . .
. . . but UGA would have played one of the Tigers the night before.
Probably our best draw I would think.
by Son of Roaring Dan on Feb 19, 2011 3:11 PM CST up reply actions
Be even better if . . .
. . . Auburn was the 5th seed in the West and all three of their basketball fans showed up to rock the Georgia Dome and knock off the Dogs. Auburn is such an embarrassment in basketball. I’ve been to the tourney several times in Atlanta, and despite the fact that Auburn is essentially the closest school to the Georgia Dome, they routinely have the smallest number of fans to show up.
that cowcollege down south is an embarrASSment to the whole F'n state!!
"I do whatever they want me to do," he said. "I’ll punt it if that’s what they want." Julio Jones after rushing for a 56 yd TD vs Miss. St.
UVA beat Va Tech
We picked up ground on the Hokies.
One more loss other than to Duke . . .
. . . and the Hokies will likely be on the outside looking in.
Washington State about to be kicked off the bubble
They’re down by 8 to the lowly Sun Devils with 15:40 to go.
Devils hanging on . . .
. . . to a 4 point lead with 1 minute to go.
Devils blew a 16-point lead at home . . .
. . . and now cling to the ball and a 1 point lead with 6 seconds left.
Devils did it.
That’ll do it for the Cougars. They should be out of the discussion now.
Butler is killing Ill-Chi right now . . .
. . . so they will remain in the discussion.
MSU takes down Ole Miss at home
Rebs have been the better team and have a way better RPI, but that gives the Bullies a season sweep over their in-state rivals and puts MSU into 2nd in the West.
Also, this means with a win tonight we clinch not just a share of the West title, but we clinch the #1 seed outright. Don’t think we need any other motivation for tonight, though. Can’t lose to Arkansas and be a serious tournament contender or probably SEC title contender.
Didn't see that one coming.
But that’s the problem with an offensive team. You go on the road, get a little cold streak, and you can easily lose games that you’re not supposed to lose.
Good . . .
I would rather play a beat down Ole Miss next weekend than a confident team on a roll. My top goal is winning the SEC regular season (which probably clinches a tourney invite), then figuring out a way to get into the Big Dance. Winning these two at home and then Ole Miss probably gets us at least a tie for the SEC.
by Son of Roaring Dan on Feb 19, 2011 3:31 PM CST up reply actions
Good point about Ole Miss.
We want them to be tired of basketball when we head over there.
Update on today's games
Hokies lost to the Cavs – A very big loss for the Hokies and a big plus for us.
UGA beat the Vols – It’s kind of a mixed bag but most seem to think this one hurts us.
Butler destroyed Illinois-Chicago – Unfortunately, they stay in the discussion.
The Sun Devils beat the Cougars – A big plus as this pretty much eliminates Wash St. from bubble talk.
ASU!
Go Devils!
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
by AlabamaJammer on Feb 19, 2011 4:18 PM CST up reply actions
UGA beat the Vols – It’s kind of a mixed bag but most seem to think this one hurts us
dunno, this might be a chance for good here. beat the Dawgs at Coleman and it helps our portfolio.
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
by AlabamaJammer on Feb 19, 2011 4:19 PM CST up reply actions
Two notes
Clemson @ Miami and St. Bonaventure @ Richmond are both Sunday games.
Somebody has kidnapped the Vandy basketball team . . .
. . . and substituted some people that were on the flight with them? Who is this team playing in a brand new coliseum in Auburn?
Kentucky puts up a 50 spot on the Cocks . . .
. . . in the first half to take a 29 point lead at home, 50-21. Ouch. Too bad the Cats suck on the road.
I pray UK doesn't get the 4 seed
probably the only team in the SEC I’m scared to play in the SECT (several could beat us certainly, but as far as teams where I really wouldn’t feel okay about our chances, UK is the only one).
Part of it is that UK is way better than their record, and I strongly believe has the highest postseason ceiling of any SEC team—the only SEC team that’s a Final Four threat, in my opinion. The other part is that playing UK in the SEC Tournament is a virtual road game. They will have literally 20,000+ in the Dome, possibly more. It’s essentially like playing them in Rupp, and you see what they’ve done in Rupp this year.
I’m hoping they get the #3 seed, and therefore aren’t even on our side of the bracket.
Dores up by 2 at the half . . .
. . . on the Barn. Ridonculous.
Auburn has improved as much as us since November
unfortunately for them, their sucking in November made our sucking in November look Final Four worthy. At the start of the season, they were honestly playing like the #300-330 team in D1 (out of 345). Now they are playing like a team that you’d expect to see in the #100-150 range. Still not very good, but when you’re in that range you’re a threat to beat bubble-ish teams and perhaps shock a top-25 team on your home court.
Matt I usually agree with everything you say but....
I don’t think they’ve improved THAT much. Improved yes, but not as much as we have IMHO
"I do whatever they want me to do," he said. "I’ll punt it if that’s what they want." Julio Jones after rushing for a 56 yd TD vs Miss. St.
You may still disagree with me, which is fine, but I wasn’t in anyway saying they are as good as us. What I meant by that is that from where they were then to where they are now is about as big a jump as where we were then to where we are now.
I said they went from about 300-330 to being more like 100-150, though I’d say probably closer to 150. They still are bad for a major conference team, but that’s a HUGE improvement.
I think we went from being about 80-120 to being about 25-35. That’s also a HUGE improvement.
Of course these rankings I’m just making up to explain quantitatively about where I think each team was playing at each time of the year. Those numbers are strictly subjective and based on nothing but my opinion. Just explaining further what I meant.
I understand you weren't meaning they were as good as we are.
I just don’t think they’ve made quite the quantum leap as we have. They are definitely an improved team. And I’ll be worried when they come to Coleman. But they don’t seem to have learned to finish as we have. They more remind me of our team last year than they do of this year’s squad. And I wasn’t meaning to say your opinion is wrong. I just have a different one.
"I do whatever they want me to do," he said. "I’ll punt it if that’s what they want." Julio Jones after rushing for a 56 yd TD vs Miss. St.
it's a big weekend in opelika
big turnout for their baseball game last night and the tree huggin is going on today. God’s prolly there on their side too…
"You have to create 6 seconds of hell each play..."
Coach Nick Saban
BC is hangling with UNC on ESPN
very low-scoring game, second half just started. Need Justin Knox and the Heels to take care of their business.
Yeah, I was going to pick UNC by single digit win or loss in that one
but decided against it in the Streak for the Cash on ESPN.
"I do whatever they want me to do," he said. "I’ll punt it if that’s what they want." Julio Jones after rushing for a 56 yd TD vs Miss. St.
Other game right now:
Kansas State leads OU by 8 with 11:45 to play. UNC has opened it up to 10 points now.
12:05 in the 2nd and it's 37-24 UNC
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
by AlabamaJammer on Feb 19, 2011 4:21 PM CST up reply actions
I should also point out
that after Thursday’s night’s games, we were added to another bracket, so we are currently represented in 20 out of 63 brackets with an average seed of 11. The fewest brackets for any at-large team right now is 36.
Something I've never seen before:
Kansas State almost completed a five-point play. The OU defender bowled through a screen as Pullen was draining a three-pointer. They called the foul and counted the basket, so the screener got to take two shots. He missed the second, though.
Eagles won't go away.
Down by only 2 at Chapel Hill with one minute to play.
More good news for the Tide.
Missouri St. is down by 15 at the half to Valpo. This is one that we are in very close contention with.
Heels hang on to beat the Eagles.
Yet more good news for the Tide.
If we can put the Hogs away . . .
. . . we can make a move up today with several teams falling just above us.
Valpo is about to dispatch Missouri St.
This is big for the TIde as Mo. St. was one of the teams keeping the Tide out of many of the projections. If we win tonight we should pick up several new projections.
Besides beating Arkansas, how'd we do today?
Not bad I’d say. We had an interest in 18 games last night and today. The six projected 12 seeds, right above us, are most important. We picked up good ground here as Missouri State, Colorado State, and Wichita St. all lost games that they needed to win to keep their 12 seeds. Mich. St. and UTEP did what they had to do to hold on to their positions. Richmond plays tomorrow.
The projected 11 seeds also had a bad day, much to our benefit. Three out of the four lost. Boston College lost a very close one to the Tar Heels, which won’t hurt the Eagles terribly but won’t help them, either. But Va. Tech and Memphis both lost games on the road that they desperately needed to win. Only Kansas St. had a good day in this group, handling Oklahoma at home.
The 3 other teams with us in the “first four out” group had mixed results. Butler convincingly won a game that they could not afford to lose. Same with UAB, who punked the Golden Knights in a must-not-lose game. Much to our delight, Baylor had a terribly embarrassing loss at home to Texas Tech in a game that might prove to be the end of the Bears’ quest to get to the dance.
In the “next four out” group, we may have heard the last of Oklahoma State and Washington State. Both teams lost must-not-lose games and may be dropped from the discussion altogether.
The three projected 10 seeds all won today, so we gained no ground there. However, 9 of the 18 games we were watching went in our favor. We will likely jump into most projections this week with a precarious hold on an 11 or 12 seed. It’s looking good but the battle is far from over.
Old Dominion . . .
. . . took care of Cleveland St., dropping them down a notch in the discussion and giving us an assist if the Vikings don’t win the Horizon League tourney.
Projected 12 seed Richmond is unfortunately about to put St. Bonaventure away, late in the 2nd half.
Clemson and Miami are embroiled in a tight one early in the 2nd half. We need for the Canes to pull one out, effectively knocking the Tigers out of the discussion.
Nobody said it would be easy.
After perusing the brackets from I confirmed what most of knew would be the case. Winning the SEC championship will not guarantee an invitation to the NCAA Tournament. We did gain some ground this weekend, picking up a few more bracket projections. However, many bracket projections continue to place us in the first four out and a few have stated that Bama will need to win out to lock up an invitation with the SEC tourney championship.
Granted, these projections are just best guesses, and some of them are pretty suspect. Consider the bracket projection from our SEC basketball overseers at Kentucky Sports Online (). This site does not even have Bama listed in the first eight out. Don’t believe it? Look for yourself.
Even with our extraordinary accomplishments this year, very few people are taking us very seriously. We’ve got a ways to go.
I'm surprised we didn't gain any more ground given how many games went our way
And I could see us having to win all but 1, but winning out seems like a lot. I would think winning the rest of the West games, along with splitting Florida and Georgia would be enough.
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Feb 21, 2011 6:48 PM CST up reply actions
It's a close call.
A lot of people seem to think that the SEC West has the strength of a mid-major conference this year. That may not be fair but the West lost a ton of non-conference games, 28 to be exact (nearly 5 games per team). Compare that to the 19 lost in the SEC East (about 3 per team) and the 41 non-conference games lost by 16 teams in the Big East (barely 2.5 losses per team). It will really depend on the situation of other bubble teams. The more we win and the more they lose, the better our chances.
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