Weekend Bubble Watch Rooting Guide (March 4-6)
by rugman11 on Mar 4, 2011 6:29 PM CST
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PrintI have to warn you, things are starting to get ugly. Of the 24 brackets added or updated on Wednesday and Thursday, we were not in a single one. Still, The Bracket Project currently has us ranked in 32 of the 78 brackets, meaning we are officially the last team in right now. The only reason that is still the case is because everybody around us is losing as well. A win against Georgia tomorrow is an absolute must and, even then, we’re going to need to win at least one more game and get some help along the way. Hopefully Clemson’s, Colorado’s, Baylor’s, and Southern Miss’s losses this week will help keep us in front of them, but I just don’t know. Shit has hit the fan, folks. But, thankfully for our sanity, it’ll all be sorted out in a week.
Conference Tournaments
Conference tourneys are continuing this week, so I’ll give a quick roundup of each one and who to root for. Some of these smaller conferences have at-large contenders, so it’s very important that those teams win their tournaments and not allow multiple teams to make it in.
Big Sky (March 5, 8-9)
Nobody here is an at-large possibility. The tournament winner will likely end up with a 16 seed.
Rooting Interest – None. This is a one-bid league.
Colonial Athletic Association (March 4-7)
George Mason and Old Dominion are tournament locks while VCU is a deep bubble team. Nobody else in the conference is a tournament contender, so we need desperately for GMU or ODU to take this tournament.
Rooting Interest - Root FOR George Mason and Old Dominion. Root against VCU and everbody else.
Mid-American Athletic Conference (March 4-7)
Conference leader Fairfield’s RPI is worse than ours. There’s no way they can lose another game and still go dancing.
Rooting Interest – None. This is a one-bid league.
Southern Conference (March 4-7)
Like with Fairfield, there is no way for conference leader Charleston to lose to another Southern Conference team and still be on the bubble.
Rooting Interest – None. This is a one-bid league.
Sun Belt Conference (March 5-8)
View MAAC and Southern Conference. Copy, paste, rinse and repeat.
Rooting Interest – None. This is a one-bid league.
Summit League (March 5-8)
Oakland is a curious case. They have an RPI in the 50s but the rest of the conference is so terrible that losing in the tournament would probably be too much of a hit to their resume.
Rooting Interest – Still, to ward off the 0.1% chance of Oakland earning an at-large bid, let’s just hope they win the conference tournament.
West Coast Conference (March 4-7)
There are two potential at-large teams here: Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. They’re both sitting on double-byes, so the most likely result would have them meeting in the conference finals. The best case scenario has one team falling in the semifinals and the other team winning it all.
Rooting Interest – Pull for Saint Mary’s to win the tournament and Gonzaga to lose early.
Ivy League (March 4-5)
No conference tournament here, but Princeton and Harvard will meet tomorrow in a game that will likely decide who gets the automatic bid. I don’t think there are any real at-large possibilities since Harvard lost last weekend.
Rooting Interest – None. This is probably a one-bid league.
Movin’ On Up
Illinois Fighting Illini (18-12, 8-9 Big Ten): Indiana (Sat 11:00)
Last Week (10); This Week (9)
Like I said this week, Illinois’s move down had less to do with their own play than with Kansas State’s. Even after losing to Purdue this week, they’re moving up to allow an old fan favorite to drop down to the bubble.
10 Seeds
Tennessee Volunteers (18-12, 8-7 SEC): #23 Kentucky (Sun 11:00, CBS)
Last Week (9); This Week (10)
Well, well, well. The Volunteers’ crappy losses are finally coming back to haunt them. If there’s a more schizophrenic team in Division 1 basketball, I haven’t seen it. A team capable of winning at Memorial Fortress that’s also capable of losing to 10-19 Charlotte will have everybody pulling their hair out come Selection Sunday. The selection committee loves big wins and Tennessee has them in spades, with seven wins against top-50 RPI teams. Still, with losses to Oakland, Charlotte, College of Charleston, Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi State, at some point it stops looking good and starts looking ugly. Still, a top-35 RPI and the second-ranked strength of schedule is likely to keep the Vols dancing, barring losses to Kentucky and in the first round of the SEC tournament.
Rooting Interest – I honestly have no idea. This depends entirely on which team you want to play in the SEC tournament and the permutations left are so complicated that I don’t know how to figure it out.
Marquette Golden Eagles (18-12, 9-8 Big East): @ Seton Hall (Sat 5:00, ESPN3)
Last Week (10); This Week (10)
The Eagles just can’t seem to put this thing away. Every time they pick up a big win, they follow it up with a loss. After picking up a road win at UCONN, they came back home and lost to likely-tournament team Cincinnati. I don’t think Marquette’s in trouble, but if they lose to Seton Hall this weekend and in the first round of the Big East tournament, then they can start worrying.
Rooting Interest – I doubt we can pass Marquette, but every game helps. Pull for Seton Hall
Georgia Bulldogs (20-9, 9-6 SEC): @ Alabama (Sat 12:30, ESPN3)
Last Week (10); This Week (10)
Something I just discovered today: If Georgia beats Alabama on Saturday it would be their third-best conference win. Since beating Kentucky at home in their first conference game on January 8th, Georgia is 3-6 against the SEC East (two over USCe and 1 over UT) and 5-0 against the SEC West. The Bulldogs have been feasting on weak teams, just like Bama. Fortunately for them, they don’t have the complete pants-shitting that the Tide had in November and December. The only way Bama could reasonable pass them up, would be if we beat them Saturday and again in the SEC tournament quarterfinals.
Rooting Interest – Roll Tide!
Michigan State Spartans (17-12, 9-8 Big Ten): @ Michigan (Sat 1:00, CBS)
Last Week (10); This Week (10)
A win over Iowa keeps the Spartans steady this week. I honestly don’t see them in much danger the rest of the way.
Rooting Interest – Michigan has crept its way onto the bracket and ahead of Bama this past week, so let’s hope the Spartans can smack them back down.
11 Seeds
Virginia Tech Hokies (19-9, 9-6 ACC): @ Clemson (Sat 11:00, ESPN2)
Last Week (11); This Week (11)
The Hokies failed to back up their season-defining win over Duke against BC this week, so they have to stay on the bubble for now. They’ll likely have to lose out to fall back far enough to be caught, and even then it’s unlikely.
Rooting Interest – Tech is probably far enough ahead to be safe, so it would probably be best if they could knock Clemson off the bubble.
Memphis Tigers (21-9, 9-6 C-USA): Tulane (Sat 3:00)
Last Week (11); This Week (11)
The Tigers have been hovering in this 11 seed for the past two weeks despite ugly double-digit losses to 12-17 Rice, 16-13 East Carolina, and a 27-point dismantling at the hands of UTEP. It’s finally starting to catch up with them as well, as only six of the nineteen brackets updated on Thursday included Memphis. There is still some room to move up, though, since Conference USA is loaded with top-50 RPI teams. If the Tigers can make a decent run in the conference tournament, they’ll be okay.
Rooting Interest – A home loss to 13-15 Tulane to close out the season on a three-game losing streak would just be awful.
Saint Mary’s Gaels (23-7, 11-3 WCC): Portland/Loyola-Marymount/Santa Clara (Sun 7:00, ESPN2)
Last Week (11); This Week (11)
Saint Mary’s still pulled the top seed in the WCC even after their late-season loss to Gonzaga, which means they have a double-bye until the conference semifinals Sunday. They’ll play Portland, Loyola-Marymount, or Santa Clara. ESPN seems to think they’re in a great deal more trouble than they probably are, though a loss to anyone other than Gonzaga would be trouble.
Rooting Interest – They could fall out of the bracket with a loss, but I still think the best case scenario has Saint Mary's winning the conference tournament.
Richmond Spiders (23-7, 12-3 A-10): Duquesne (Sat 11:00)
Last Week (12); This Week (11)
Richmond still hasn’t done anything really impressive this season except, perhaps, to avoid a really bad loss. If they can pull off a win over Temple or Xavier in the Atlantic-10 tournament, they’ll be safe. But unless they can do that, they’ll remain firmly on the bubble.
Rooting Interest – A loss to Duquesne wouldn’t be devastating, but it couldn’t hurt.
12 Seeds
Alabama Crimson Tide (19-10, 11-4 SEC): Georgia (Sat 12:30, ESPN3)
Last Week (12); This Week (12)
The ship is sinking quickly for the Tide and they need to right it but quick. They are rapidly falling out of brackets and are really only in because a lot of people haven’t updated their brackets since before we lost to Ole Miss. I still believe it will take three more wins to feel safe and two more wins to stay in the conversation.
Rooting Interest – Roll Tide!
Gonzaga Bulldogs (22-9, 11-3 WCC): Pepperdine/San Diego/San Francisco (Sun 9:30, ESPN2)
Last Week (12); This Week (12)
The Bulldogs managed the double-bye as well, finishing as the second seed in the WCC. They’ll play one out of Pepperdine, San Diego, and San Francisco. They’re looking closer to safe than, perhaps, the Tide, but a slip-up against any team but Saint Mary’s would throw their tournament hopes into question.
Rooting Interest – Pull for the upset.
UAB Blazers (21-7, 11-4 C-USA): East Carolina (Sat 7:00)
Last Week (12); This Week (12)
The Blazers finally managed to pick up a decent win this week, beating Southern Miss on the road by a point. The resume is still a little iffy, however, so a deep run in the Conference USA tournament would definitely help.
Rooting Interest – Again, I don’t like rooting against UAB, but it would really help Bama if ECU won this game.
Butler Bulldogs (21-9, 13-5 Horizon): Cleveland State/Wright State (Sat 5:00, ESPNU)
Last Week (12); This Week (12)
Well, the Horizon League is officially, as of this printing, a one-bid league—assuming Butler is that bid. Cleveland State is still sniffing around the First Four Out, but at this point, we have to be all-in on Butler.
Rooting Interest – Preferably, Cleveland State will lose to Wright State tonight, but no matter what happens, root for Butler here.
Boston College Eagles (18-11, 8-7 ACC): Wake Forest (Sun 11:00)
Last Week (12); This Week (12)
I was hoping Virginia Tech could put away the Eagles this week but, alas, it wasn’t meant to be. BC is looking safer, now that they’ve effectively guaranteed a winning conference record. There’s still a chance, though, that should they lose their next two games, for Bama to pass them up.
Rooting Interest – Wake Forest is terrible, so I’m rooting for them for the schadenfreude, if nothing else.
Michigan Wolverines (18-12, 8-9 Big Ten): Michigan State (Sat 1:00, CBS)
Last Week (FFO); This Week (12)
It’s amazing what a buzzer-beater loss to a Top Ten team and a win over a bubble team will do for you. In the last week, the Wolverines used their one-point loss to Wisconsin to move from off the bubble to the First Four Out and beat Minnesota this week to move up to a 12 seed. I don’t know that there’s any way they can get off of the bubble without winning the conference tournament, but a win over the Spartans would at least bring them to .500 in conference and keep them around.
Rooting Interest – Michigan State is close to a lock, so root for the Spartans.
13 Seeds
Missouri State Bears (24-7, 15-3 MVC): Southern Illinois (Fri)
Last Week (13); This Week (13)
The Bears beat Southern Illinois in their first MVC game this afternoon. If any Missouri Valley team is going to earn an at-large bid, it’s going to be Missouri State. With any luck, the Bears will win the tournament and render that thought moot.
Rooting Interest – Close one for the Bears this afternoon as they were down nine points to eight-seeded Southern Illinois, thankfully they came back for a 58-56 win. Pull for Missouri State to win the MVC tournament.
Belmont Bruins (28-4, 19-1 Atlantic Sun): @ Mercer (Fri 5:30)
Last Week (13); This Week (13)
This is a deep sleeper, but the Bruins’ gaudy records and good efficiency numbers (they are top-50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency) mean that there’s a chance, however small, that they could squeeze an at-large bid if they lose in the Atlantic Sun tournament.
Rooting Interest – Let’s just hope they take the tournament title so we don’t have to worry about that.
First Four Out
Colorado Buffaloes (18-12, 7-8 Big XII): Nebraska (Sat 8:00)
Last Week (FFO); This Week (FFO)
I am seriously thinking about sending the Iowa State Cyclones some thank you cards if Bama does make the NCAA tournament. The last two weeks, two teams have clawed their ways back on to the Bubble by beating Texas and both times Iowa State smote them back off. Last week it was Nebraska, this week it was Colorado. Without a long run in the Big XII tournament, it’s unlikely Colorado is an at-large contender.
Rooting Interest – Nebraska is already off the bubble, so root for the Huskers.
Clemson Tigers (19-10, 8-7 ACC): Virginia Tech (Sat 11:00, ESPN2)
Last Week (FFO); This Week (FFO)
Another loss this week by a team trailing us in the standings. The Tigers’ loss to Duke wasn’t as bad as Colorado’s loss to Iowa State, but it still represents another missed opportunity for Clemson to notch a quality win for a resume that is sorely lacking in them. They’ll need at least one if they want a chance come Selection Sunday.
Rooting Interest – With the Hokies nearly a lock, let’s hope they can knock Clemson out this weekend.
Baylor Bears (18-11, 7-8 Big XII): Texas (Sat 8:00, ESPN)
Last Week (NFO); This Week (FFO)
Like Colorado, Baylor moved up by beating a ranked Big XII team and, like Colorado, Baylor will fall back down after losing to a non-tourney team this week. The Bears’ loss to the Cowboys hurts a lot and, barring a victory over Texas, will keep them on the outside looking in.
Rooting Interest – Let’s hope Texas can get its shit together and finally beat a bubble team.
Cleveland State Vikings (25-7, 13-5 Horizon): Wright State (Sat 5:00)
Last Week (FFO); This Week (FFO)
Cleveland State picked up a win in the opening round of the Horizon League tournament, though it didn’t really help their standing. Beating Wright State won’t really, either. Their big test will come in the semifinals against Butler. I’d rather see them leave now.
Rooting Interest – Root for Wright State, who currently trails the Vikings by 2 with 11:48 to play.
Next Four Out
Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-12, 6-11 Big Ten): Penn State (Sun 12:00)
Last Week (11); This Week (NFO)
That conference record is ugly, and it’s likely going to keep the Gophers watching from home. Losing their last four games and eight of their last nine certainly is not going to help matters any.
Rooting Interest – Penn State could finish them off this weekend.
Wichita State Shockers (23-7, 14-4 MVC): Bradley (Fri 6:00)
Last Week (NFO); This Week (NFO)
I’m pretty sure Wichita State lost their shot at an at-large bid when they lost the regular season title to Missouri State. Still, there’s a chance.
Rooting Interest – Unless they lose to Bradley.
Colorado State Rams (19-10, 9-6 MWC): @ San Diego State (Sat 9:00)
Last Week (NFO); This Week (NFO)
I’ve been saying for the past two weeks that the Rams needed one more good win to make the tournament, but they’ve so far failed to get it, losing to UNLV and BYU. Tonight’s their last chance, but they’ll have to win at San Diego State to do it.
Rooting Interest – SDSU is a lock, so we’ll root for them.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (21-8, 9-6 C-USA): @ Tulsa (Sat 7:00)
Last Week (NFO); This Week (NFO)
The Eagles are running out of opportunities, having dropped their last two games. I don’t know that they have enough games left to crawl back into the bracket without winning the conference tournament.
Rooting Interest – Hope that Tulsa puts them away this weekend.
FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.
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TL;DR Version
Root FOR: George Mason, Old Dominion, Oakland, Saint Mary’s, Bama OVER Georgia, Michigan State OVER Michigan, Virginia Tech OVER Clemson, Butler, Missouri State, Belmont
No Idea: Kentucky OR Tennessee
Root AGAINST: Everybody Else
Matt may be able to provide some insight into how the Kentucky/Tennessee game will affect the seeding, but it was too complicated for me to figure out.
depends on our result tomorrow
Here’s the deal, if we beat UGA, then a UT win ensures that UK won’t even be on our side of the bracket (they’d be the #3 seed). However, if we lose to UGA, then a UT win ensures that UK will likely be our very first opponent (they’d be the #4 seed).
You’re right, it’s very complicated, but the bottom line is that since that game isn’t until Sunday, we’ll know exactly where the result of that game will put teams for the SECT by the time it’s played.
The Bracket Project finally updated this evening
and Alabama has fallen to the first team out with five brackets fewer than Clemson. We really need a win tomorrow.
right now we're out
but after talking to a few bracket experts on Twitter, two more good wins would give us a chance, especially if there aren’t many bid stealers and other bubble teams keep losing. Two wouldn’t guarantee us anything, of course, but it gives us a chance. Georgia tomorrow would be a good win, and so would our first SECT game, assuming it’s one of the four possible teams from the East and not Auburn or LSU. An additional third win in the semis would have us feeling really good, although we still wouldn’t be a 100% lock.
We can’t lose tomorrow though, or else we’d need to to win the whole SEC Tournament for sure.
From what I've been hearing/thinking,
one more win leaves us out (be it tomorrow w/o a win in the tourney or a loss tomorrow and a win in the tourney), two more wins leaves us on the edge, and three more wins (tomorrow and two in the tourney or just winning the tourney) leaves us in pretty good shape.
Yesterday's Results:
Missouri State squeaked by Southern Illinois, which is good because we need them to win that tournament.
Cleveland State won, which is bad, but they’ll play Butler next, so root hard for a Butler win there.
Belmont beat Mercer, which puts them one win away from locking up their conference’s automatic bid.
Wichita State beat Bradley, which is not good, but expected.
Today's Guide: I've highlighted the biggest ones
Virginia Tech OVER Clemson (11:00, ESPN2)
George Mason OVER Georgia State (11:00, ESPN3)
Duquesne OVER Richmond (11:00)
Alabama OVER Georgia (12:30, ESPN3)
Michigan State OVER Michigan (1:00, CBS)
Drexel OVER VCU (1:30, ESPN3)
Missouri State OVER Creighton (1:35)
Tulane OVER Memphis (3:00)
Indiana State OVER Wichita State (4:05)
UCLA OVER Washington State (4:30)
Old Dominion OVER Delaware (5:00, ESPN3)
Belmont OVER North Florida (5:00, ESPN2)
Butler OVER Cleveland State (5:00, ESPN2)
Seton Hall OVER Marquette (5:00, ESPN3)
Oakland OVER Southern Utah (6:00)
Texas OVER Baylor (8:00 ESPN)
Nebraska OVER Colorado (8:00)
San Diego State OVER Colorado State (9:00)
you're a good man...
I was just about to ask if any of these were on the tellie. Been meaning to try the Xbox-ESPN thingy. Anyone ever done that?
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Mar 5, 2011 9:32 AM CST up reply actions
yes
works well. Quality is about what you get on your computer screen, but there is a significant delay between live TV (like 20-40 seconds).
Also,
Harvard and Princeton play tonight at 6:00 on ESPN3. There aren’t a ton of bubble implications, but Princeton will lock up the Ivy League auto-bid with a win and Harvard will set up a one-game playoff if they win.
Not sure I agree . . .
. . . but the Gameday crew were unanimous: if we win today we are in.
I don't quite buy that either,
but I was watching a video of one of their guys today who was talking about how Virginia Tech, Memphis, and Clemson were all still out, so who knows.
Interesting.
Va Tech about to go down. They may be out but Clemson helping themselves today. Memphis has lost 3 out of their last 4. They are definitely teetering.
i would have preferred VT to beat clemson
Im sure after the Duke win, VT was in. Clemson seemed more of a competitor. Now, if VT/Clemson are both in, that hurts us. For some reason, diptards like Palm like Memphis out of CUSA. Name, probably (or, more likely, RPI).
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Mar 5, 2011 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
11:00 scores
George Mason BEAT Georgia State, 68-45 (very good)
Richmond BEAT Duquesne, 68-56 (not good, but expected)
Clemson BEAT Virginia Tech, 69-60 (not sure how to feel about that. The Hokies might be caught now)
see above. HATE the clemson win.
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Mar 5, 2011 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
lol
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Mar 6, 2011 10:45 AM CST up reply actions
Was that our game?
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Mar 6, 2011 10:45 AM CST up reply actions
Afternoon scores:
Bama BEAT Georgia, 65-57 (Roll Tide!)
VCU BEAT Drexel, 62-60 (not great, but VCU is far enough back that I’m not too worried. Still need GMU or ODU to win the conference, though)
Michigan BEAT Michigan State, 70-63 (this sucks, but I just can’t make a good argument for Michigan except that they didn’t lose to Iowa)
Missouri State BEAT Creighton, 60-50 (Very Good)
Update before I head home:
Memphis BEAT Tulane (Tulane led this game for 35 minutes. Memphis is in trouble)
Afternoon/Early Evening Scores:
UCLA BEAT Wazzou, 58-54 (OT) (Big one here. Would have been a big win for Wazzou)
Wichita State LOST to Indiana State, 54-61 (Huge loss for the Shockers. If Missouri State wins the MVC tourney, it’s a one-bid league)
Old Dominion BEAT Delaware, 59-50 (GMU and ODU are in the semifinals now. Need one of those two to win it.)
Belmont BEAT North Florida 87-46 (Belmont wasn’t expected to earn an at-large bid, but now that they’ve won their conference, that fear is allayed)
Butler BEAT Cleveland State, 76-68 (Huge win for Bama. If Butler can beat UW-M on Tuesday, the Horizon is a one-bid league)
Marquette LOST to Seton Hall, 85-72 (Wow. I don’t even know what to say about this one. I thought Marquette was a lock after beating UCONN, but they’ve lost their last two games including one to 12-17 Seton Hall. This could be huge)
Could Seton Hall picking up a win help us at all?
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Mar 6, 2011 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
Late Left Coast Report
Oakland easily handled Southern Utah to advance in the tourney. Let’s hope they put this tourney away and keep the Summit League a one bid league.
Texas beat Baylor in Waco. Let’s hope that this is the end of discussions of Baylor whose fortunes have declined considerably in the last month.
Colorado beat Nebraska. Not good because Colorado has now clawed its way from the brink back into legit bubble discussion. A Nebraska win would have sent the Buffs back to the brink where Nebraska resided until losing today.
San Diego State easily defeated Colorado State, which should end the bubble discussions concerning the Rams, whose season has consisted of lots of losses to good teams, lots of wins over poor and mediocre teams, and a signature win over the Ole Miss Rebels, 2 days before Christmas.
Today's Games:
Kentucky OVER Tennessee (11:00, CBS) (UK win means we face UGA, UT win means we face Vandy)
George Mason OVER VCU (11:00, ESPN3)
Penn State OVER Minnesota (12:00)
Missouri State OVER Indiana State (1:05, CBS)
Old Dominion OVER Hofstra (1:30, ESPN3)
Saint Mary’s OVER Santa Clara (7:00, ESPN2)
San Francisco OVER Gonzaga (9:30, ESPN2)
…in a way I would rather face Vandy and beat them instead of UGA. After yesterday the Dawgs are considered tainted goods, and Vandy would be a high RPI win still.
Also we owe those Commies one.
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
by AlabamaJammer on Mar 6, 2011 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
But that would require UT to win
And I’m not rooting for that to happen
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Mar 6, 2011 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
I want to take out our frustations on Vandy . . .
. . . who will have faced spunky and annoying little brother the day before. And I don’t want the Cats in the same bracket with us on a floor which will essentially be a home game for them. Go Vols (/throwsupinmouthalittlebit). Beat the Cats.
I'm not rooting for UT to win.
I’m rooting for the basketball gods to provide some karma for us. Way different.
It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.
And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010
by AlabamaJammer on Mar 6, 2011 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think they're tainted goods.
We still need another good win and even if they are a bubble team, Georgia still has a top-50 RPI. Plus, since they’re a bubble team, beating them twice in the last week of the season would basically guarantee they can’t get in over us.
Plus, I think we have a better chance at beating Georgia than Vandy's
and any win is a good win at this point.
I disagree.
I think we have a better chance against Vandy. There will be more UGA fans there, and our coach, our players, and our fans are all wanting another shot at Vandy. I think we would be at the top our game for that match up.
It is officially now impossible to . . .
. . . have a bubble discussion without revealing biases. There simply is no metric by which the last slots of the tourney could be decided in a fair and just manner.
Exhibit one: ESPN’s Joe Lunardi kept Michigan St. in his bracket even though they picked up their 13th loss, yesterday. That loss came to the lowly Michigan Wolverines who, by the way, are also in Lunardi’s bracket. Think he has a thing for the Big Ten (or Twelven or Legends or whatever they’re called)? Before the Bama game yesterday Lunardi had Bama in his “first four out” group. So, when Bama beat UGA what did Lunardi do? The only logical thing, right? He dropped UGA from his bracket and kept Bama out, too, in his “first four out” out group.
I wish I had a dime for every “reasonable” bracket projection out there. Whatever happens in a week, it ain’t gonna be pretty for some folks. Let’s hope it’s not us.
He is pretty good, though.
He’s only missed three teams in the past three years.
fair point
Auburn and LSU have absolutely killed our bracket standing. On the other hand, we probably would have picked up a couple of road losses if they were top 150 instead of 250.
I keep saying that if Davis were a better shooter we’d be a top 20 team, and we wouldn’t be in this mess.
Bad news in the first games:
George Mason LOST to VCU, 79-63. The Patriots are a Top 25 team, so this loss increases the chances that the CAA will be a three-bid league, rather than just two bids. It also significantly increases the importance of this afternoon’s Old Dominion-Hofstra game. A loss by ODU shrinks the bubble by one spot and, frankly, we need all the open at-large bids we can get.
Kentucky BEAT Tennessee, 64-58. We’ll face UGA or Auburn in our first SEC tournament game.
it's going to go down to the wire for us
we need as few bid-stealers as possible. VCU could be the first, though with that win over GMU, some are putting them back on the bubble. Still, I like our chances over them if ODU knocks them back into the at-large pool. That will be a big game (assuming ODU wins today).
Yep
ODU currently leads Hofstra 41-34 at the half.
More potential bid-stealer news – Indiana State currently lead Missouri State 46-38 with 10:00 left to play. I like our chances against Missouri State, but the Bears would just add one more team to worry about.
Not exactly bubble related:
But anybody with ESPN3 should check out this Fairfield-Saint Peter’s game. Fairfield is staging an epic comeback. They trailed 40-15 at the half, but have outscored St. Peter’s 21-2 through the fist 12:00 of the second half. Currently 42-36 St. Peter’s.
This is the same Fairfield team
that trailed George Mason 63-36 with 16:00 left earlier this year and scored 65 points in 21 minutes to win 101-96 in OT.
St. Peter's making the dance would help us
it would make that loss look a lot better, even though St. Peter’s would likely be a 14 seed or so. Still, the committee would recognize them as a strong mid-major team.
And they did pull out the win, 62-48
They’re in the conference finals now.
And Indiana St. steals a bid.
Unless something shifts, we are almost certainly going to need 2 wins in the tourney.
I don't know about that.
Missouri State has been teetering on the edge for a while. Their resume isn’t that great and it’s currently being held up by a 41 RPI. They didn’t beat a single power conference school in non-conference play and their best wins were against Wichita State, who will miss the tournament. Their losses to Valpo, Evansville, Northern Iowa, and Indiana State (twice) are certainly as bad as our losses. And they’ve consistently been locked in as a 13-seed. I think we match up favorably with them and will definitely be ahead of them with one more win and might even be ahead of them without it.
Mix of good and bad in the afternoon games.
Minnesota ended any at-large chance they had by losing to Penn State. How a team that started 11-1 with wins over UNC and West Virginia could lose 9 of their last 10 including 7 losses to teams that finished .500 or worse in conference is beyond me.
Indiana State BEAT Missouri State, which adds another team to the bubble but, as I said above, I don’t think the Bears are an at-large lock. In fact, I would probably put them behind us right now.
Old Dominion just finished off Hofstra, 77-69, so we desperately need them to beat VCU tomorrow to keep the Rams from stealing a bid.
That VCU win stung
It won’t really hurt unless they beat ODU tomorrow. And UT, like a true rival, did exactly what we DIDN’T want them to do. I honestly think that loss hurt us more than it hurt them.
I fell in love with Rolando McClain the first time I saw him. Unfortunately, he still doesn't know my name ;)
by SoGladILeftTheACC on Mar 6, 2011 5:45 PM CST reply actions
6:00
ESPN for ODU-VCU, ESPN2 for St. Peter’s-Iona
cool
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Mar 6, 2011 10:23 PM CST up reply actions
gotta cheer big for Butler over UWM on Tues.
That and the ODU-VCU game both likely take away possible at-large bids if they go the wrong way.
I have one more bubble watch piece I'll be posting tomorrow as well,
that I’m hoping to keep updated throughout the week. That way we can have one place to come back to without having a new post everyday or every other day.
Cool, I enjoy the feature
I understand if it would be too much work, but do you know if you could update results by editing the actual post? As in, put the result and whether it’s good/bad under your original header for the game?
Proud member of the Fax Girl fan club.
by billycthulhu on Mar 7, 2011 12:41 AM CST up reply actions
I'm going to try something along those lines.
We’ll see how it works.
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