FanPost

Did we run the ball less effectively in 2010 (as compared to 2009), or simply run it less?


I was over in the thread relating to Barrett Jones moving to left tackle, and the question came up whether we ran the ball less effectively in 2010 (as compared to 2009), or did we simply run it less.

Well, here's my attempt at analysis.

 

<strong>Mark Ingram's numbers</strong>:

 

Stats Overview  Rushing                                          Receiving                              Fumbles

YEAR    ATT     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     REC     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     FUM     LST

2008     143     728       5.1        40       12        7           54        7.7       27        0         0           0

2009     271    1658      6.1        70       17      32         334     10.4       69        3         0           0

2010     158     875       5.5        54       13       21        282      13.4       78       1         0           0

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=379061

 

I know SBN will probably mess up this nice formatting I just spent so much time on, so, in brief, Mark Ingram averaged 0.6 fewer yards per carry, on 113 fewer carries, in 2010 than in 2009.  (However, he averaged 0.4 more yards per carry, on 15 more carries, in 2010 than in 2008.)  Of course, according to ESPN, Mark Ingram apparently didn't have any fumbles in 2010, so I'm not sure whether we should believe a thing they say.

 

<strong>Trent Richardson's numbers</strong>:

 

Stats Overview Rushing                                          Receiving                                 Fumbles

YEAR     ATT     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     REC     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     FUM     LST

2009      145      751      5.2       52         8        16        126      7.9        17         0         0           0

2010      112      700      6.3       65         6        23        266     11.6       85        4          0           0

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=480206

 

Again, in summary, Trent Richardson averaged 1.1 more yards per carry, on 51 fewer carries, in 2010 than in 2009.  He averaged 0.8 more yards per carry in 2010 than did Mark Ingram, on 46 fewer carries.  Wow am I excited to see what he will do this year!

 

And, in the spirit of completeness:

 

<strong>Eddie Lacy's numbers</strong>:

 

Stats Overview     Rushing                                       Receiving                                Fumbles

YEAR     ATT     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     REC     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     FUM     LST

2010       56       406      7.3        62        6          2          18        9.0       15         0         0          0

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=480263

 

That's right, Eddie Lacy averaged a yard per carry more than Trent Richardson last year on exactly half as many carries (56), and scored exactly as many rushing touchdowns as did Trent.  For what it's worth, In 2010 Eddie Lacy averaged 1.8 ypc more than Mark Ingram on 102 fewer carries (Eddie had a little over 1 carry for every 3 of MI's).

 

<strong>Demetrius Goode's numbers</strong>:

 

Stats Overview          Rushing                                 Receiving                                 Fumbles

YEAR     ATT     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     REC     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     FUM     LST

2008        9          24       2.7         7          0         0           0         0.0         0          0         0          0

2009       16       108      6.8        14         0         0           0         0.0         0          0         0          0

2010       34       140      4.1        15         1         1           17       17.0      17        0         0          0

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=237201

 

Not as exciting.

 

<strong>Jalston Fowler's numbers</strong>:

 

Stats Overview Rushing Receiving Fumbles

YEAR     ATT     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     REC     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD     FUM     LST

2010       14        111     7.9        36         1         0           0         0.0         0          0        0           0

 

<strong>Our two starters in 2009 and 2010, combined (I'm just going to do rushing, not receiving)</strong>:

 

Stats  Overview         Rushing                                         

YEAR    ATT     YDS     AVG     LNG     TD    

2009     416    2409      5.8        70       25      

2010     270    1575      5.8        65       19

 

<strong>Analysis</strong>:

 

Looks pretty clear-cut that, at least with our starters, we ran significantly fewer times in 2010 than in 2009, but had about the same average.

 

In 2009, there were only 3 games in which MI had fewer than 15 carries (North Texas, 8 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD; FIU, 10 carries, 56 yards, 1 TD; UT-Chattanooga, 11 carries, 102 yards, 2 TDs), and those were games in which more was simply not required from him.  By the same token, injuries were a factor in 2010; remember that MI didn't have a single carry in the first two games of the season, and TR didn't have a single carry against Mississippi State or Georgia State.  However, there were also 7 games in which MI played, but had fewer than 15 carries (Duke, 9 carries, 151 yards, 2 TDs; Florida, 12 carries, 47 yards, 2 TDs; South Carolina, 11 carries, 41 yards, 0 TDs; Tennessee, 14 carries, 88 yards, 2 TDs; Georgia State, 12 carries, 86 yards, 1 TD; Auburn, 10 carries, 36 yards, 1 TD; Michigan State, 12 carries, 59 yards, 2 TDs).  Some of these were clearly blowouts against inferior competition, against whom more MI was unnecessary.  However, his lack of carries and production against Auburn in particular is curious.  In 2010, Duke and Arkansas were the only games in which MI had more than 100 yards (he had more than 150 in both).

 

In 2009, there were only 3 games in which TR had 15 carries or more (FIU, 15 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs; Auburn, 15 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD; Texas, 19 carries, 109 yards, 2 TDs).  (Hard to remember, (or easy to forget?) but against Kentucky he had 14 carries, 26 yards, 0 TDs.)  However, in 2010, there was only 1 game (Penn State, 22 carries, 144 yards, 1 TD) in which he had more than 15 carries, and Penn State and Tennessee (12 carries, 119 yards, 1 TD) were the only games in which TR had more than 100 yards.

 

MI and TR had 146 fewer carries in 2010 than they did in 2009.  Most of this is going to be due to 4 games lost between them due to injury, and another two man-games lost between them due to not going to the SECCG, for a total of 6 man-games lost.  In the 2009 SECCG, MI had 28 carries, 113 yards, 3 TDs, and TR had 11 carries, 80 yards, 0 TDs.  Then, for the purpose of this analysis, I will remove each players' two most oft-carrying games in 2009 (not including the SECCG), or highest-yardage, in case of a tie, to try to compensate for the 2 games that each lost to injury in 2010.  For MI that would be Ole Miss (28 carries, 172 yards, 1 TD) and Virginia Tech (26 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD), and for TR that would be Texas (19 carries, 109 yards, 2 TDs) and FIU (15 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs).  So, with the SECCG and each of their most oft-carried games of 2009 thrown out, their 2009 would look more like this (I know is is an extreme example to throw out some of their most productive games of 2009, but I want to see an extreme comparison first; what if they would have had their BEST games in the three that they each missed in 2010?):

 

<strong>MI</strong>:

YEAR    ATT     YDS     AVG     TD    

2009     189    1223      6.5      12

2010     158     875       5.5      13

 

<strong>TR</strong>:

YEAR    ATT     YDS     AVG     TD    

2009      100      444     4.4       4

2010      112      700     6.3       6

 

Silly, and the results look about as expected if we remove the SECCG and two games for each player in which they got the most carries.

 

Now let's compare per game averages, comparing games in which they accumulated stats, and see how that compares.  Both accumulated stats in 14 games in 2009, and only 11 games in 2010, so the averages per game in which they accumulated stats comes out to:

 

<strong>MI</strong>

YEAR    ATT         YDS         AVG     TD

2009     19.36    118.43       6.1     1.21

2010     14.36       79.55      5.5     1.18

 

<strong>TR</strong>

YEAR    ATT         YDS         AVG     TD

2009   10.36       53.64        5.2      .57

2010   10.18       63.64        6.3      .55

 

<strong>Conclusion</strong>:

 

So, having looked at this a couple of different ways, it appears to me that Trent Richardson got the ball almost exactly the same amount of carries per game (in which he played) in 2010 as he did in 2009, and scored almost exactly as many touchdowns per game, but actually did a good bit more with the ball in terms of yards per carry.  Mark Ingram, on the other hand, carried the ball exactly 5 fewer times per game (in which he played) in 2010 than he did in 2009, yet still scored almost exactly the same amount of touchdowns per game.  If you were to ask me why he got 5 fewer touches per game, my guess would be not changed coaching philosophy, but rather lingering concern over his knee, as well as fankly lower production in terms of yard per carry (.6 ypc less).

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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