I was over in the thread relating to Barrett Jones moving to left tackle, and the question came up whether we ran the ball less effectively in 2010 (as compared to 2009), or did we simply run it less.
Well, here's my attempt at analysis.
<strong>Mark Ingram's numbers</strong>:
Stats Overview Rushing Receiving Fumbles
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2008 143 728 5.1 40 12 7 54 7.7 27 0 0 0
2009 271 1658 6.1 70 17 32 334 10.4 69 3 0 0
2010 158 875 5.5 54 13 21 282 13.4 78 1 0 0
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=379061
I know SBN will probably mess up this nice formatting I just spent so much time on, so, in brief, Mark Ingram averaged 0.6 fewer yards per carry, on 113 fewer carries, in 2010 than in 2009. (However, he averaged 0.4 more yards per carry, on 15 more carries, in 2010 than in 2008.) Of course, according to ESPN, Mark Ingram apparently didn't have any fumbles in 2010, so I'm not sure whether we should believe a thing they say.
<strong>Trent Richardson's numbers</strong>:
Stats Overview Rushing Receiving Fumbles
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2009 145 751 5.2 52 8 16 126 7.9 17 0 0 0
2010 112 700 6.3 65 6 23 266 11.6 85 4 0 0
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=480206
Again, in summary, Trent Richardson averaged 1.1 more yards per carry, on 51 fewer carries, in 2010 than in 2009. He averaged 0.8 more yards per carry in 2010 than did Mark Ingram, on 46 fewer carries. Wow am I excited to see what he will do this year!
And, in the spirit of completeness:
<strong>Eddie Lacy's numbers</strong>:
Stats Overview Rushing Receiving Fumbles
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2010 56 406 7.3 62 6 2 18 9.0 15 0 0 0
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=480263
That's right, Eddie Lacy averaged a yard per carry more than Trent Richardson last year on exactly half as many carries (56), and scored exactly as many rushing touchdowns as did Trent. For what it's worth, In 2010 Eddie Lacy averaged 1.8 ypc more than Mark Ingram on 102 fewer carries (Eddie had a little over 1 carry for every 3 of MI's).
<strong>Demetrius Goode's numbers</strong>:
Stats Overview Rushing Receiving Fumbles
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2008 9 24 2.7 7 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
2009 16 108 6.8 14 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
2010 34 140 4.1 15 1 1 17 17.0 17 0 0 0
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=237201
Not as exciting.
<strong>Jalston Fowler's numbers</strong>:
Stats Overview Rushing Receiving Fumbles
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2010 14 111 7.9 36 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
<strong>Our two starters in 2009 and 2010, combined (I'm just going to do rushing, not receiving)</strong>:
Stats Overview Rushing
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
2009 416 2409 5.8 70 25
2010 270 1575 5.8 65 19
<strong>Analysis</strong>:
Looks pretty clear-cut that, at least with our starters, we ran significantly fewer times in 2010 than in 2009, but had about the same average.
In 2009, there were only 3 games in which MI had fewer than 15 carries (North Texas, 8 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD; FIU, 10 carries, 56 yards, 1 TD; UT-Chattanooga, 11 carries, 102 yards, 2 TDs), and those were games in which more was simply not required from him. By the same token, injuries were a factor in 2010; remember that MI didn't have a single carry in the first two games of the season, and TR didn't have a single carry against Mississippi State or Georgia State. However, there were also 7 games in which MI played, but had fewer than 15 carries (Duke, 9 carries, 151 yards, 2 TDs; Florida, 12 carries, 47 yards, 2 TDs; South Carolina, 11 carries, 41 yards, 0 TDs; Tennessee, 14 carries, 88 yards, 2 TDs; Georgia State, 12 carries, 86 yards, 1 TD; Auburn, 10 carries, 36 yards, 1 TD; Michigan State, 12 carries, 59 yards, 2 TDs). Some of these were clearly blowouts against inferior competition, against whom more MI was unnecessary. However, his lack of carries and production against Auburn in particular is curious. In 2010, Duke and Arkansas were the only games in which MI had more than 100 yards (he had more than 150 in both).
In 2009, there were only 3 games in which TR had 15 carries or more (FIU, 15 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs; Auburn, 15 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD; Texas, 19 carries, 109 yards, 2 TDs). (Hard to remember, (or easy to forget?) but against Kentucky he had 14 carries, 26 yards, 0 TDs.) However, in 2010, there was only 1 game (Penn State, 22 carries, 144 yards, 1 TD) in which he had more than 15 carries, and Penn State and Tennessee (12 carries, 119 yards, 1 TD) were the only games in which TR had more than 100 yards.
MI and TR had 146 fewer carries in 2010 than they did in 2009. Most of this is going to be due to 4 games lost between them due to injury, and another two man-games lost between them due to not going to the SECCG, for a total of 6 man-games lost. In the 2009 SECCG, MI had 28 carries, 113 yards, 3 TDs, and TR had 11 carries, 80 yards, 0 TDs. Then, for the purpose of this analysis, I will remove each players' two most oft-carrying games in 2009 (not including the SECCG), or highest-yardage, in case of a tie, to try to compensate for the 2 games that each lost to injury in 2010. For MI that would be Ole Miss (28 carries, 172 yards, 1 TD) and Virginia Tech (26 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD), and for TR that would be Texas (19 carries, 109 yards, 2 TDs) and FIU (15 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs). So, with the SECCG and each of their most oft-carried games of 2009 thrown out, their 2009 would look more like this (I know is is an extreme example to throw out some of their most productive games of 2009, but I want to see an extreme comparison first; what if they would have had their BEST games in the three that they each missed in 2010?):
<strong>MI</strong>:
YEAR ATT YDS AVG TD
2009 189 1223 6.5 12
2010 158 875 5.5 13
<strong>TR</strong>:
YEAR ATT YDS AVG TD
2009 100 444 4.4 4
2010 112 700 6.3 6
Silly, and the results look about as expected if we remove the SECCG and two games for each player in which they got the most carries.
Now let's compare per game averages, comparing games in which they accumulated stats, and see how that compares. Both accumulated stats in 14 games in 2009, and only 11 games in 2010, so the averages per game in which they accumulated stats comes out to:
<strong>MI</strong>
YEAR ATT YDS AVG TD
2009 19.36 118.43 6.1 1.21
2010 14.36 79.55 5.5 1.18
<strong>TR</strong>
YEAR ATT YDS AVG TD
2009 10.36 53.64 5.2 .57
2010 10.18 63.64 6.3 .55
<strong>Conclusion</strong>:
So, having looked at this a couple of different ways, it appears to me that Trent Richardson got the ball almost exactly the same amount of carries per game (in which he played) in 2010 as he did in 2009, and scored almost exactly as many touchdowns per game, but actually did a good bit more with the ball in terms of yards per carry. Mark Ingram, on the other hand, carried the ball exactly 5 fewer times per game (in which he played) in 2010 than he did in 2009, yet still scored almost exactly the same amount of touchdowns per game. If you were to ask me why he got 5 fewer touches per game, my guess would be not changed coaching philosophy, but rather lingering concern over his knee, as well as fankly lower production in terms of yard per carry (.6 ypc less).