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Make Your Season Prediction for the Tide

Here's a challenge for you: give some details on how you think the season season plays out for BAMA. Here's my prediction.

1) Kent State - W - 49-7: The Tide comes ready to play as certain spots remain open not only for the offensive line, but for the WR and QB positions. McCarron, Phillip Sims and Blake Sims get playing time at QB. Both passing and rushing games pickup big yardage (550 total yards for offense) as the OL does an outstanding job of preventing QB/RB pressure.

2) Penn St - W - 28-10: A key pick by McCarron slows the offensive attack down in the first quarter as AJ has to adjust to his first start in a hostile stadium. The defense does their job of shutting out the Nittany Lions in the first half, allowing for McCarron to get his confidence and put up some second have yardage and scores. Phillip Sims, also comes in on a few possessions and does well. The defense and the Tide's rushing attack are key in this victory as both Richardson and Lacey have a big day.

3) North Texas - W - 42-3: Kent St. Redux - Different team, same story. On to the next game.

4) Arkansas - W - 24-21: The razobacks post the toughest challenge to date for the Tide as the Razorback's defense has greatly improved. Bama struggles early with two picks and goes conservative, depending on the rushing attack to wear them down. The gambit pays off in a close one but there are concerns in the passing game from picks and struggles in the red zone.

Star-divide

5) Florida - W - 21-10: Short field position and a hostile environment pose problems for the Tide. QBs are still rotating as there has yet to be a clear cut starter. Despite a slow start (7-0 Bama in the first half), the Tide starts clicking in the second half in both the passing and running game. The Gators youth causes them to wear down and the Tide ends up winning the turnover margin as they have zero picks and fumbles yet recover a fumble and two picks against the Gators.

6) Vandy - W - 28-0: The score doesn't tell the true tale as some short field conversions are left wanting. TOP was overwhelmingly in the Tide's favor and the outcome is never in doubt. RBR comrades unite in unheralded revelry resulting in STIP getting slapped with a short stay in the local pen for D&D conduct. It's all good, as he spent his hotel money on booze that day--so from an economic perspective, he's cash positive!!

7) Ole Miss - W - 35-7: The Nutter is on the hot seat as his team is falling to pieces. The Bear is stuffed and Nutt starts channeling his best Dubose impression. The passing game and rushing game continue to improve and the rotating QBs is still present.

8) Tennessee - W - 28-3: While the Volunteers are moderately improved over last year, lack of depth is still a problem and Bama rolls in the second half. The Vols have no answer against the Tide's OL. The cigars come out and the Vols continue to experience their worst nightmare in decades.

9) LSU-Saban's revenge - W - 17-10: This is the hardest fought battle to date. Defense and field position decide this game as neither team really establishes any offensive momentum. A Mad Hatter trick play backfires and the tide gains a decisive TD from short field position.

10) Miss St. - W - 24-14: Bama is still hurting from the previous week's game but have enough depth to overcome a challenging away game. Jalston Fowler is the surprise hero in this one as he gets into the end zone with a couple of short yardage rushing TDs.

11) Georgia Southern - W - 42-10: Becomes a Kent St. trilogy. The only points scored by Georgia Southern are in the last quarter as BAMA is playing third stringers to rest up for AU.

12) Auburn - W - 28-14: Despite a great defensive and offensive effort in hostile territory, Malzahn gets some points with a fledgling offense. Despite two TDs from well executed trick plays, the Tigers have too many holes to fill during a rebuilding year.

13) SEC Champioship Game vs. SCAR - Revenge tour continues - W - 28-10: Though the Cocks create some scares early and put up significant defensive pressure, the Tide's running game and clock management prevails. Garcia is sacked 5 times and gives away 1 pick and 2 fumbles. Upshaw is the hero as he creates the two turnovers. One of the best highlights of the night is Clowney getting flipped by a great pickup block by Trent Richardson.

14) Championship Game vs. Oklahoma - The Big Ten fails to impress again this year along with the PAC-50 . With the lack of a conference game and a TX program in decline, Oklahoma runs away with it and ends up in the No. 2 spot behind the Tide. This game ends up being a nail-biter and the Tide prevails 28-21 from some key conversions and defensive stops. Cue Saban's evil grin as he holds up his third crystal football.

Bama is 14-0 and BCS champions with 14 National Titles. The SEC is still dominant and the other conferences push for a playoff within the next 5 years in order to create more obstacles for the SEC juggernaut.

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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Can't really argue with any of your picks.

But, I think with a new qb we will lose one game early on the road- either UF or PSU. I think after that we sail through until Auburn where we will have a tough. tough time. However I do see us beating them and going to the SECCG. I won’t predict after that because who knows where 11-1 will get you ranked or who we will play in that game.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Jul 11, 2011 8:39 AM CDT reply actions  

By the way, this is the best finish I have

ever predicted for Bama. I’m usually real cautious. I just think our D may be the best it has been since 1992, and our O-line is at least as good as we have had in long time too. We have from 8-10 NFL players starting on this team even without an experienced qb. Anything less than 11-1 is a huge disappointment to me.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Jul 11, 2011 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Better than 2009?

I’ll need to see some D linemen step up before I could say that. Deaderick, Cody, and Dareus are all playing on Sundays now. Not sure Chapman, Williams, and Dial are quite that good.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Jul 11, 2011 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Square improves that side of the equation, though....

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 11, 2011 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Square "Route" to victory?

There's no way, *no* way that you came from *my* loins. Soon as I get home, first thing I'm gonna do is punch yo mamma in da mouth! - B.T.J.

by JokerBama on Jul 12, 2011 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

I stand by my previous prediction on a dangerous trap game:

Tennessee. Recall 2009’s situation and you’ll understand.

Jalston Fowler can also catch a pass. I predict one of our opponents, at least, learns this the hard way.

LSU game will be epic.

by Jeff Jones on Jul 11, 2011 11:55 AM CDT reply actions  

Just heard that Clay Travis...

Has picked LSU to go all the way. According to Greg McElroy, who attended the Peyton Manning camp – Jordan Jefferson was in the top two of the camp re: accuracy/most impressive performance. Now how that translates to game time – we’ll see.

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 11, 2011 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I hate to admit it

But I think Clay Travis is right.

"I don't know; we haven't played Alabama yet." -Vince Lombardi

by TexaninNYC on Jul 11, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, because it's against air.

Not having to make reads, progressions, hit receivers in stride, and covered receivers.

"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon

by Stuck in the Plains on Jul 11, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't mean about Jefferson.

I mean about LSU.

"I don't know; we haven't played Alabama yet." -Vince Lombardi

by TexaninNYC on Jul 11, 2011 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think they're inextricably interwoven.

Picture an October game, for instance, and the D has had a lapse or two: LSU is down say 21-10 going into the 4th. JJ has had a Pryor type game: 11-27, one pick, one TD, for 138 yards.

Got faith he can lead them back?

Not I.

"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon

by Stuck in the Plains on Jul 11, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Which is why I think we handle LSU at home.

Our D will be greater than JJ’s ability and we will be able to move the ball on LSU.

LSU is a popular pick right now because everyone wants to say “See I told you so.” I do not think Les Miles has the ability to win 13 games in one season and it will take at least 13 to win the NC.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Jul 11, 2011 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

From your keyboard to the football gods' ears (on us handling LSU).

LSU does have a favorable home schedule — road games are MSU, WV, UT, Bama, then Ole Miss. When they play us, I expect them to be unbeaten and on a roll, unless they found some way to drop the opener to the Ducks. LSU’s trap game appears to be Miss. St.

by Jeff Jones on Jul 11, 2011 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah I'd say

that part of the hype over LSU is based on two things- 1. A lucky win against a Bama team that was better than them last year and 2. A bowl victory over a medium A&M team.

Other than that what did they really do in 2010? They won lucky time and again and then they could not stop Cam or Arky. In fact of 8 SEC games they really only looked good against Vandy and MSU. I mean NC, WV, UT, Bama and UF could have easily been losses. If they lose those five games Miles is gone and people are picking them mid pack. Heck, if they even lose UT & UF, which were the luckiest of the bunch, Miles is in trouble. Before the kickoff of Bama v. LSU last year my daughter was sitting next to some LSU fans in BR and they told her they secretly hoped Bama would win so they could get rid of Miles. They are all hype now but they know Les is capable of many a dumb move.

Yes, Miles has been real lucky of late, maybe even some voodoo going, but it may be about to run out.

Auburn, not LSU, will be our toughest West opponet.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Jul 11, 2011 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

You had me...

…until that last sentence….

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 11, 2011 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

We've tried

He’s like that one uncle you have who insists that the government is controlling us through chem-trails, and no amount of data can change his mind.

"I don't know; we haven't played Alabama yet." -Vince Lombardi

by TexaninNYC on Jul 12, 2011 8:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

5026 and I are alike in that...

… we worry about them sneaky rivals, always.

I’m like the old guy in the coffee shop still complaining about the designated hitter…

by Jeff Jones on Jul 12, 2011 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm still convinced 5026 is a cleverly disguised Barner.

I fell in love with Rolando McClain the first time I saw him. Unfortunately, he still doesn't know my name ;)

by SoGladILeftTheACC on Jul 12, 2011 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

He's good people...

…so that one’s out….

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 12, 2011 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

Nope, I'm 100% Bama.

In fact I won’t even let my grown daughters date AU or UT guys.

I’m leary of Auburn because of both 2009 and 2010. I think they will cheat any way they can and the truth is it is hard to beat people who cheat. I also think Malzahn is really talented. I know his offense looks like a gimmic but he has surprised me tremendously. Furthermore they are not afraid to roll the dice and that makes them dangerous. Until we dominate them like we did in 2008 I am afraid of them.

LSU is good too. However I think Miles is riding a big lucky streak. I felt for years Richt was riding a big lucky streak and then the streak reversed itself. I think Miles is due for a correction. I mean is he really that good a coach? We play them and Arky at home. I just think we will be hard to beat at home. AU, on the road, you know it is going to be tough.

But please, never insuate that I am an Auburn fan. That is just crazy. I really hate them, well maybe hate is too strong, so I strongly dislike them. But, I try not let crimson colored glasses distort my vision. Until they implode, and I think eventually they will, we need to consider that somehow it is working for them. Never under estimate sneaky rivals.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Jul 12, 2011 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was kidding. I know you're good people :)

But, as someone’s almost-grown daughter…don’t ban the AU and UT guys. We do best when we make our own mistakes, and that’d be a pretty easy one to recover from. Just saying…;)

And yes, rivalry games are ridiculous. The football gods like to use them to play naughty tricks on us (see 09’s third Saturday in October).

I fell in love with Rolando McClain the first time I saw him. Unfortunately, he still doesn't know my name ;)

by SoGladILeftTheACC on Jul 12, 2011 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

No parents need to protect their kids.

I really only had one situation where 1 daughter dated a UT guy for one date. He seemed innocent enough as he was a Samford student. Anyway, I made her rewatch the famous “I hate Tennessee” video. After that she defriended him on Facebook…end of problem.

Both are now dating UGA guys. (Well they live in GA so what do you expect?) I can live with that even though one of my kids is a Bama grad and promises she will return to Bama for grad school before she gets too serious with any guy.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Jul 13, 2011 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

Toughest Opponents for 2011

1. LSU
2. @MSU
3. Ark
4. @UF
5. @PSU
6. @AU
7. UT

by jjdrumz on Jul 12, 2011 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

Wait.

You forgot Poland N. Texas and Vandy!

by Jeff Jones on Jul 12, 2011 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

look at who they are bringing to media days, then who we are

http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2011/7/11/2270246/sec-media-days-lineup-announced#storyjump

I know it’s not about star power only, but they are not my biggest concern, more like 4-5. I know they’ll play us tough, but it seems much more likely that lsu beats us than them.

by dixiefootballpride44 on Jul 12, 2011 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

NATIONAL CHAMPS! WORLD CHAMPS!

SUPER BOWL CHAMPS! WORLD CUP CHAMPS! WORLD SERIES CHAMPS! KERPLUNK! CHAMPS! CHAMPIONS OF TEH INTERWEBZ

ROOOLLLLL TIIIIIDEEEEEEEE

RBR's King of Hip-Hop...

by SpockJenkins on Jul 11, 2011 12:40 PM CDT reply actions  

So it's happy in hour in Germany?

How have you been and when in the HECK are you coming back to the U.S. for a long awaited furlough?

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 11, 2011 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's ALWAYS happy hour where I'm at.

I’ve been ok. Just crazy new job. I’m trying to come back for Bamapaclypse (sp?) but who knows, now.

RBR's King of Hip-Hop...

by SpockJenkins on Jul 11, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

The offer still stands...

You let me know if I need to help out with anything to secure your visit. I’ve got a feeling Stuck will need some help just to make it out alive.

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 11, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

We lose 2. Arky and LSU.

By a total of 4 points. Is this sacreligious. Im sorry. Will self falgellate.

Proud mini-Saban.

by Tidee Whitee on Jul 11, 2011 1:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Im just gonna take it a game at a time enjoy the moment thats what I did in 09 and it worked out pretty well

"My next stop will not be another school but retirement to Lake Burton in north Georgia", Coach Saban

by rtrclassof2017 on Jul 11, 2011 2:32 PM CDT reply actions  

COWARD!!!

You afraid you going to jinx us?

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 11, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

AND WE LIVE HAPPILY EVER AFTER.

puff, puff, pass…….

Penn will be our only loss, yet because it’s early and Penn has a great year (lol), all is forgiven and #14 is earned.

by BigBamaLafayetteLA on Jul 11, 2011 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

We play Penn this year??

Kinda cool, but that’s gonna be a massacre. Maybe Dartmouth next year!

How much longer till kickoff?

by CarrotTop4 on Jul 11, 2011 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Don't take it so lightly, man.

Penn has as many NCs as Florida!

"I don't know; we haven't played Alabama yet." -Vince Lombardi

by TexaninNYC on Jul 11, 2011 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

and princeton has more NCs than anyone.

Rangers finish 85-77, four games behind the A's. Red Sox beat the Braves in the World Series.

Let’s hope I’m wrong.

by Josey Wales on Apr 1, 2011 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions

by Mr. Abe Froman on Jul 11, 2011 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why is it always the damn Tigers?

"I don't know; we haven't played Alabama yet." -Vince Lombardi

by TexaninNYC on Jul 12, 2011 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

Good point.

Bring it on, Quakers!!

How much longer till kickoff?

by CarrotTop4 on Jul 12, 2011 7:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

Interesting wikifact:

Heisman, Outland, and Bednarik were all Penn alumni.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvania#Football

How much longer till kickoff?

by CarrotTop4 on Jul 12, 2011 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

This man didn't underestimate Penn, so I won't, either...

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 12, 2011 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

Less interesting fact

They are the only U.S. sports team at either the professional or collegiate level whose nickname starts with “Q.”

"I don't know; we haven't played Alabama yet." -Vince Lombardi

by TexaninNYC on Jul 12, 2011 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

That's Quazy!

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 12, 2011 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

You had the same dream I did?

Enjoy that new rec smell!

"All I wanna do is drive around in my truck and drink Jack Daniels... and they just don't understand."- Kenny Stabler

by UtahBammer on Jul 11, 2011 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Seconded.

It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.

Maybe next year the Ice Surface at Jobing.com should be frozen with the tears of Winnipeg. - TimmyHate of FiveForHowling to a troll after it was alleged Coyote fans do not know how to ice skate.

by AlabamaJammer on Jul 11, 2011 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ok..

So I guess you are saying 14-0 then huh?

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 11, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

arrgghhh JASANDS it!!!!!!

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 11, 2011 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

of course

I’m sorry I thought the flying dogs conveyed that message

People who live in glass houses should not hang out with Charles Barkley.

by Wallacewade04 on Jul 11, 2011 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm ok with this.

We have to get rid of Bob Bradley somehow.

by Orlando McCain on Jul 13, 2011 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

I want to believe you.

I really do. And I sure as hell don’t want to get on a bus and travel to see a loss again this year. But the young QB jitters scare me. It wasn’t an issue with McElroy, because he just didn’t throw interceptions. But I worry that one or both of these guys is in danger of throwing picks due to over-excitement/nerves/inexperience/etc.
Also, @MSU reeks of trap game. As does @PSU and even, to some degree, @UF. Dropping one of those really wouldn’t surprise me (as much as it would hurt to lose to those jort-wearing swamp people).

I fell in love with Rolando McClain the first time I saw him. Unfortunately, he still doesn't know my name ;)

by SoGladILeftTheACC on Jul 12, 2011 8:21 AM CDT reply actions  

I with you and understand your concern...

What balanced it out for me was the defense and the offensive line.

To me PSU is the biggest upset alert due to being so early in the season. Historicaly Saban takes risk as part of the equation and dials stuff back to play to the team’s strength. Remember 2008 – JPW wasn’t put in a position to try and win games, simply manaeg it and keep the chains moving. Now he was a senior, but the same logic applies.

I wouldn’t expect a ton of pass plays being called against PSU. I see heavy reliance on Richardson and Lacey. Now if they fumble, we’re in for a long game. PSU doesn’t impress me from an offensive perspective. We’re going to get short yardage looks and chip away until they wear down. Second half we pull away by 14 minimum.

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 12, 2011 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Turnovers are terrifying.

Between losing the no-interception man under center and turning to Eddie Lacy (who has had fumble problems in the past) as the new Trent Richardson, I’m nervous. Also, I need something tangible and specific to worry about, because I’m one of those motherly types who likes to worry (and I don’t have kids to worry about yet). It doesn’t make much sense to worry about anything else…so I live in fear of turnovers.

I fell in love with Rolando McClain the first time I saw him. Unfortunately, he still doesn't know my name ;)

by SoGladILeftTheACC on Jul 12, 2011 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well if you have to worry about something...

Bama football and fumbles are as good a topic as anything else. You were meant for RBR.

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 12, 2011 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 12, 2011 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

NLS IS the Hivemind...

It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.

Maybe next year the Ice Surface at Jobing.com should be frozen with the tears of Winnipeg. - TimmyHate of FiveForHowling to a troll after it was alleged Coyote fans do not know how to ice skate.

by AlabamaJammer on Jul 14, 2011 7:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

Here's my 8th grade yearbook photo...

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 14, 2011 7:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Simultaneously....

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 14, 2011 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

Priceless...

You are excelling at the one-liners. Keep it up and have rec’ced day!

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 18, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Not predicting outcomes of games, its bad luck

Its a silly superstition I have.

I will predict that Eddie Lacy has a break-out year. That on top of a good season, and pressure from the Drake kid in Georgia, lands us the Collins kid from Geismar, LA (Lacy is also from Geismer and the same high school). Then I rub it in the face of all the LSU fans here in Baton Rouge.

"If wanting to win is a fault, as some of my critics seem to insist, then I plead guilty. I like to win. I know no other way. It's in my blood." -- Paul "Bear" Bryant

by GeauxCrimson on Jul 12, 2011 12:14 PM CDT reply actions  

I look for Lacy to be very good this year.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Jul 13, 2011 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not superstitious, so I'll post.

Computer predictions.

Kent St. W 28 – 13
Penn St. W 29 – 15
North Texas W 30 – 12
Arkansas W 33 – 29
Florida W 25 – 20
Vanderbilt W 34 – 9
Mississippi W 38 – 19
Tennessee W 32 – 17
LSU W 24 – 20
Mississippi St. W 24 – 14
Ga. Southern W 52 – 0
Auburn W 31 – 28

by cal n on Jul 13, 2011 7:39 AM CDT reply actions  

Skynet

Self-awareness has made him a Bama fan.

"I don't know; we haven't played Alabama yet." -Vince Lombardi

by TexaninNYC on Jul 13, 2011 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Excellent.

How much longer till kickoff?

by CarrotTop4 on Jul 13, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

I run my own computer polls and rankings.

With my own formula etc.

Just a hobby of mine.

by cal n on Jul 13, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

I see.

Cool, thanks.

How much longer till kickoff?

by CarrotTop4 on Jul 13, 2011 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'll give the computer credit

it had our toughest game being…Auburn.

But any computer that thinks we only beat Kent St. by 15 pts. and North Texas by 18 is crazy.

If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.

by 5026 on Jul 13, 2011 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Crazy computer!

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 13, 2011 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

You'd still be giving it to much credit lol.

I do not try to “weight” teams at all in the process. I don’t say oh well this team is good, this team is bad. I only use available stats, so the scores are based on last years data as it’s all I have. I have no influence in what it does outside the formula itself. The majority of the time this works great, because most teams in general seem to hang in the same general area from year to year. And as it collects more data in the season, it starts to drop data from the previous year and eventually only relys on the current year data to pick up on the accuracy. So it thinks it’s Auburn from last year, not what Auburn may be this year. By the time the Auburn games rolls around, the prediction for the game may be much different. The computer has no clue that Auburn is a rival game, or that they have played us tough. By week 5 it usually gets enough to correct for year to year changes.

As for the scores themselves, the actual scores it predicts is more like 7-1. Or really, 7.4334343343204 – 1.430434332385. Because it doesn’t look at the actual raw football stats when it predicts. I have a process in which I get “quality” stats, which are much lower than an actual game. Quality stats means the stats are adjusted based on the who the stats are against. Rushing for 100 yards against LSU is way more valuable in terms of quality stats than 100 yards against Duke. So when it comes to quality stats, the stats in general are much less. The only way you get full credit for rushing yards is if you do it against the #1 rushing defense(and that changes every week). Anything beyond the #1 rushing defense gets a % of the total yards, based on how close that team is to the top. This applies to all stats. It’s main function is to simply predict the winner – which in many games is really easy.

I just throw in a multiplier to the score it produces to try and inflate them back out a bit and get some scores that look like an actual football game. This works pretty well among somewhat even teams, like the LSU, Arkansas and Auburn. However, it tends to be off when it has uneven teams and always has the score closer than it is because it tends to over inflate the lower teams score.

I need to make the multiplier it applies to each team somehow magnify as the base score gets higher. I have yet to figure out how to do this correctly. I’ve improved the function a few times, but still not quite right.

So yeah, take it for what it is, and use common sense when in question. It’s purely a hobby, and I don’t expect ESPN or the local bookie to come beating on my door for the results anytime soon.

by cal n on Jul 13, 2011 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Ga. Southern prediction is my own.

I do not believe FCS games should count, so I don’t count them and don’t predict them. I treat them as a bye week and punish teams for playing against them in SoS.

by cal n on Jul 13, 2011 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

About that hobby...

You know bowling’s a hobby along with some other activities.
Computer stats wasn’t formerly in my hobby category.

Just sayin’

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 13, 2011 4:33 PM CDT reply actions  

son of a...

JASANDS it again. Nightmare.

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 13, 2011 4:34 PM CDT reply actions  

oh for the love!

JASANDS to second power. Just shoot me now and get it over with!

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 13, 2011 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Considering your screen name

that could be charged as a hate crime.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Jul 13, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

You are the man.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Jul 15, 2011 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd

"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban

by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 16, 2011 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

When your name becomes a verb...

You have reached the majors..so display your screen name with pride and let those who read it know about the power of the JASANDS!!!

Talent can only get you so far. Give me a player who has less talent, but the heart of a champion and the will to succeed.

by Bamapride on Jul 18, 2011 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

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