Alabama By the Numbers: Tackles For Loss & Sacks
by kleph on Jul 19, 2011 10:00 AM CDT
in Football
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PrintAt this point in the off-season last year the main worry on the minds of most folks looking forward to the 2010 Crimson Tide season was the secondary. With only a single returning starter from a unit that ranked 10th in pass defense the year prior the expectation was that growing pains were going to be inevitable.
Instead, the pass defense finished 13th in the nation for 2010 and were fourth best in the country for passes defended. Only one player in the country ended up with more interceptions that Robert Lester. There were a few epic breakdowns but overall, the kids were alright.
The Achilles Heel of the defense was actually revealed to be the defensive front seven. A month into the season OTS noted that the line was struggling to control the point of attack, tackling was not up to its usual level and third and short stops were not happening with regularity.
Things got better but not a whole lot. At one point in the season, Alabama was the second-worst team in the country for tackles for loss. The Crimson Tide ended up tied for 59th but in the SEC, only Kentucky tallied fewer.
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While several folks have noted that Nick Saban's 3-4 scheme doesn't put a premium on these stats as other defenses might, there is no escaping the fact that last year was the worst tackles for loss performance by a Crimson Tide squad since the man arrived in Tuscaloosa. And the best defensive linemen on the team (who was second on the squad for TFLs even though he missed two games for suspension) just departed for the NFL.
Add to that a healthy dollop of coaching uncertainty. Defensive Line Coach Bo Davis, who Saban brought with him from Miami, was snapped up by Mack Brown as part of the overhaul of the coaching staff in Austin. Within days, Coach Saban announced Clemson defensive ends coach Chris Rumph would be taking over the Tide defensive line coaching duties.
The Tigers ranked high in both scoring and total defense while Rumph was in Clemson (check out this superb breakdown of his work by the SB Nation Clemson site Shaking the Southland) but he takes over the reins with the stakes as high as they have been in the Saban era.
Things are disturbingly similar on the other side of the ball. Last season saw the number of both tackles for loss and sacks reach their worst level since Coach Saban's first season.
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If you'd like to know why Greg McElroy led the team in fumbles last season, here's the reason. Alabama allowed 60% more fumbles in 2010 over the year prior, a season we played an additional game. In the SEC, only Vanderbilt and Tennessee allowed more. With a new starting quarterback this season, Alabama simply cannot afford this to happen again in 2011.
With the offensive line looking like "somewhat of a mixed bag" in the wake of the A-Day game the pressure is one for this group to coalesce quickly once Fall practices get started in a few weeks. And, once again, they'll have to do it under a new position coach. Offensive line guru Joe Pendry stepped down in January and was almost immediately replaced by University of Miami OL coach Jeff Stoutland. The Hurricanes were pretty stingy when it came to allowing sacks last year, lets hope that was due to the quality of the coaching they received.
Lastly, it's worth noting that Alabama saw a significant step back in the aspect of the game the offensive and defensive lines have the most impact on - rushing.
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A slip back from Alabama's phenomenal 2009 season was expected but the Tide saw the rushing offense go from 12th in the country to 30th. While the numbers for 2010 are similar to 2008, the talent Alabama had in the backfield last season was far superior. Alabama's rushing defense was 10th in the country last season but that's a fall from No. 2 the season prior.
Obviously, laying the blame for this entirely at the feet of the offensive and defensive lines seems a bit simplistic. The players Alabama has to man the trenches are certainly considered some of the best in the conference, if not the country. The question is getting them to perform as a group and up to their incredibly high potential. If that happens then a reversal of these trends seems much more likely if not certain.
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Bone to pick
All the smart statistical analysis in that article, and yet you describe the secondaries of 2009 and 2010 by quoting pass defense statistics?
??? “Pass defense,” i.e., the number of yards passing surrendered per game, is one of the most useless statistics there is. Well maybe not at the very peak of uselessness, but on up there.
It is heavily influenced by how often the opponent passes, which is in turn systematically influenced by how good your team is. Terrible teams tend to have pretty good “pass defense,” because their opponents kick their butts so hard they never have to pass in the second half. Conversely, the best teams have their opponents throwing desperation heave starting in the 2nd quarter, and tend to have average “pass defense.”
“Pass efficiency defense” is a far, far better measure of a secondary. “Pass defense” is ripe to be ignored. Looking at the real thing shows you we had the best or second best secondary in the country in 2009 and one of the top 5 in 2010.
that was used to point out the secondary was very good
and is relied on as a common metric across the sport. it has nothing to do with the analysis the article is primarily concerned with.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
As you point out, 3-4 defense...
… may not be a huge sack generator, in most seasons. Any one stat category is only an indicator, one piece of the puzzle.
Example: TX’s much-ballyhooed 2009 62 yds allowed rushing per game average. Sounds great, right…? Well, consider their competition, and how high-scoring the TX offense was. How many of their opponents gave up on the run once they were down 3-4 or more scores…? Their D was good, but it sure helps your sack totals when your opponent starts passing every down…
i'm not convinced these stats reveal any kind of hidden flaw
in the team’s performance that can be identified and rectified. it seems clear there are a lot of factors that go into these numbers and it might be how different parts of the squad work in unison that is the culprit.
my bigger concern is in the dropoff in production we saw last season and fact the performance was significantly behind much of the rest of the conference. whatever the cause, that simply has to change for alabama to have the season we hope they do.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
Amen and preach it.
How the players worked together — see that excellent breakdown of some of the D breakdowns vs. S. Carolina last year.
You are right about
“Nick Saban’s 3-4 scheme doesn’t put a premium on these stats as other defenses might.” Saban preaches to stay in lanes and contain, so our sack numbers will probably never be sky-high. But a drop-off from one season to the next means something, because it was Saban before and Saban after, so that don’t explain it. And yeah, bottom of the conference is not what we’re shooting for, lanes and contain or not.
It is a sidelight to the article's main analysis, on that I agree
It doesn’t impact the overall validity of your post, which is good.
But whether it’s relied on across the sport doesn’t change the fact that it is not a good indicator of a secondary’s performance. It is more influenced by outside factors, specifically how much the opponent passes, than by the secondary’s performance. I can never see it used without whining, so don’t think you’re special.
honestly, i really don't care
if you have an objection to my posts, i can live with it. but don’t think you are flattering me by humoring us all with your insights.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
Well, that's all fine
But sometimes I can run off at the mouth and my main point gets lost in the verbiage, so I would wish to be taken with a grain of salt. But not about the pass defense stat, which sucks.
you seem to be missing the point here
so let me be absolutely clear.
like everyone else that write for this website, i take a lot of time and put a lot of thought into these posts. i do it because i think they reveal interesting insights and i want to encourage discussion and debate. in return we expect a modicum of respect for the effort. haranguing me about some piddly point that gets up your nose isn’t a particularly effective way to do it.
i gave you the benefit of the doubt in my first response but the patronizing tone of the follow up was simply unnecessary and my response is to dismiss all of what you have to say as just bleatings from a self-absorbed fool. this might come as a shock but i don’t require your approval of my posts in order to put them on this site nor will i ever seek it to do so.
if this particular point really irks you do a fanpost about it or something but don’t wast my time giving me grief over it particularly when it has jack to do with the point of the article anyway.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
My apologies
Didn’t mean it that way. Great respect for your posts, which is why I come here and read every day, and I’m sorry I made you waste time writing that. I come across more sarcastic than I intend at times.
I do feel strongly about the pass defense stat, and that’s all I meant to put out. I don’t put in the time and effort you do, and shouldn’t and don’t expect to receive the same level of respect you deserve, but I have been watching the game closely for 50 years, so I think I should get a little.
we invite people to contribute fanposts
on football and alabama related topics. personally, i wish more of them would be on substantive matters rather than just humorous diversion.
if you feel this is an important subject i invite you to pen a fanpost and i further suggest you include numbers that you might feel are better to express the actual state of the alabama passing offense and defense. Poulter’s comments below have made an initial foray into this.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
Gawd...
…at first glance I thought you said ‘Coulter’ instead of ‘Poulter’, and I threw up in my mouth a little….
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 19, 2011 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions
You guys talking about the Pass D got me looking at some stats
In 2010 Bama’s Pass D
6.2 yds/att 22 int 12 td 103.56 rating
In the 3 losses
10.4 yds/att 1int 7 td 196.00 rating
Obviously the three losses were to good/great teams but the drop off was enormous. Since there obviously weren’t any losses in 2009 I looked at Bama vs Top 25 teams.
2009
5.2 yds/att 24 int 11 td 87.65 rating
Vs Top 25 teams (5 games)
5.3 yds/att 10 int 4 td 84.82 rating
Also I found this a little frustrating as well
Pass Plays of
10+ = 83 (11th in NCAA/2nd in SEC)
20+ = 29 (16th/3rd)
30+ = 16 (57th/3rd)
40+ = 9 (74th/10th)
I can’t find the numbers to compare to 2009 but those numbers look to me like a bunch of blown coverages and I would assume 2009 would be much better.
the indeterminacy of many passing stats
is one reason i avoid them in these analyses (i think this is glen’s point above). but i think your findings bear out a number of things i’ve seen written about last season. particularly this.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
But...
my issue with the three losses to good teams was that in two of those we allowed 2 avg at best quarterbacks to go all “Montana” on us. For example JJ, IIRC, had thrown 3 TDs/9 Ints till we met them, and in one afternoon he matches his season total through eight games in 3 quarters against us. Also, SG, who against au’s paltry secondary, threw (someone may correct this b/c this is solely from memory) in two games 6 Ints and fumbled twice, only threw 1 Int-which came off a tip on a good throw- and one fumble on the first possession of the 3rd quarter against a superior defense.
I guess the point is, that is just dang frustrating, and I don’t really see stats telling that story. If both of those qbs have an avg or at best an above avg game, we win. IMO.
"It's not the size of the cat in the fight, it's size of the fight in the cat"
"Pep talks... only work when they touch that ember of truth learned the hardest possible way on the field.-Kleph
by thecalicocat on Jul 19, 2011 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I don’t really see stats telling that story
Logic Fail…as I try to tell the story…with stats.
What I meant was if you look at the players who are responsible for the wonderful numbers in those three losses, its just a head scratcher to me.
"It's not the size of the cat in the fight, it's size of the fight in the cat"
"Pep talks... only work when they touch that ember of truth learned the hardest possible way on the field.-Kleph
by thecalicocat on Jul 19, 2011 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with you completely
The only reason I pointed out that the losses were to good teams was that I knew that if I didn’t point it out first, someone would discount the numbers based on that critique alone.
As you said though when looking at the pass d’s performance in the three losses compared to the season averages of Garcia and Jefferson it only highlights that the numbers are worse than they appear.
Stephen Garcia’s season stats vs SEC (Alabama game factored out)
64.8% 8.8yds/att 11td 8int 148.30 rating
Stephen Garcia vs Alabama
85.0% 10.1yds/att 3td 1int 208.92 rating
Jordan Jefferson’s season stats vs SEC (Alabama game factored out)
55.1% 6.9yds/att 1td 6int 106.11 rating
Jordan Jefferson vs Alabama
70.0% 10.4yds/att 1td 0int 173.86
Cam Newton’s season stats vs SEC (Alabama game factored out)
67.7% 9.0yds/att 13td 3int 166.68 rating
Cam Newton vs Alabama
65.0% 10.8yds/att 3td 0int 205.22 rating
I think a significant part of that
is that a terrible QB, JJ, just decided all on his own to turn his season around against us, and all on his own, not because we defended poorly, e.g., his long TD pass to Randle was an incredibly accurate and hard-thrown downfield pass. He played well against us, and pretty well the rest of the season. Prior to the Bama game, there was a fair argument that he was the worst starting QB in the NCAA.
Earlier in the year, a decent QB, ST, had a game against us that made Joe Montana look like Jordan Jefferson on a bad day. I think that was largely just blind luck on having his desperation heaves fall into the perfect spots, but man was he ever on. At least a couple of his big downfield completions were against heavy pressure, too.
My theory is that much of the difference between 2009 and 2010 was luck, and that we were very nearly as good in 2010 as in 2009. We just got the right breaks at the right times in 2009—e.g., low FG attempt at the end of the UT game—and the wrong ones in 2010. You sure can’t tell me that blind luck was not a huge factor in the Auburn loss.
RE: Big passing plays
I believe this is attributable to the scheme. At least once per game, there will be a big play or two given up in the passing game.
Point to any game, win or loss, since ‘07 and you’ll see it. For instance, just in 2007 alone,
2007 7-6
West. Car. (w) 33 yds
Vandy (w) 30 yds
Ark (w) 40 yds
UGA (l) 33 yds
FSU (l) 70 yds
Houston (w) 68 yds
Ole Miss (w) 42 yds
UT (w) 43 yds
LSU (l) 64 yds
MSU (l) 19 yds
DIAF GAME (l) 40 yds
AU (l) 31
Colo. (w) 28
…and that’s just 2007.
You can look at 2008, and see the exact results as 2009 and 2010.
In this defense, you have to take the big plays with the 55 minutes of suffocation. The problem wasn’t the big plays, (although, they obviously stick in our minds), it was the friggin’ inability to get guys off the field. No way should Auburn, So. Car. and LSU be able to repeatedly drive the field, yet they did.
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Jul 19, 2011 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
this is also the point where saban's strategy
emphasizes red zone defense.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
Here are some Rushing stats too
2010 Bama Rush D
3.29 avg 6 td 33.46 att/gm
In 3 losses
3.60 avg 4 td 41.00 att/gm
2009 Rush D
2.83 avg 5 td 28.07 att/gm
Vs Top 25 (5 games)
3.20 avg 3 td 25.00 att/gm
Just to note
Rush Plays of
10+ = 45 (11th in NCAA/1st in SEC)
20+ = 13 (39th/4th)
30+ = 3 (13th/2nd)
40+ = 2 (24th/3rd)
I want Upshaw to be set loose this year upon all backfields
we need a player that can get the “OOOOOHHHHH DAAYYYUUMMM” tackles for us
this is homer advice and lack the statistical analysis shown in Kleph’s article
however after Courtney’s late season display against Auburn and Michigan State I anoint him difference maker and world destroyer for our defense
his nickname, from this point until eternity, is now “The Kraken”
don’t argue with me on this
People who live in glass houses should not hang out with Charles Barkley.
if you hear a very loud “bloop”, it’s already too late.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
holy shit that's creepy
People who live in glass houses should not hang out with Charles Barkley.
by Wallacewade04 on Jul 19, 2011 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions
more than you think.
the sensors were separated by about 3,000 miles. basically the distance across the united states, and they picked it up clearly. to compare, the explosion of krakatoa in 1883 is still considered to be the loudest sound ever heard in modern history, and it traveled about the same distance.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
This is great news! Strangely, I did not previously hear of this mysterious "Bloop."
I swear to God, if one of the ancient, giant predators is discovered to be alive (Carcharodon Megalodon, I’z lookin’ at you), I’m applying to the New Zealand National Aquarium and quitting my bullshit job, posthaste! And that applies to you Architeuthis and Colossal friends out there, hiding in the deep… or your even bigger, more raucous and as yet-undiscovered buddies.
Charles Martel, Charlemagne, William the Conqueror, Raymond IV the Count of Toulouse, Godfrey of Bouillon, Baldwin of Boulogne, Henry II, Richard the Lionheart, St. Joan of Arc and Napoleon Bonaparte -- all of good stock.
by TiderUpNorth on Jul 19, 2011 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions
True...
but I think the Krakatoa explosion was heard through the air 3,000 miles away, not through water.
Thirteen.
by Darth Saban on Jul 19, 2011 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions
of course
but i give the example as a comparison of scale.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
Do not want.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." - George Carlin
by Slice of Life on Jul 19, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
The bloop has always scared the shit outta' me
Has to be Cthulhu
"Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is." -Sir Francis Bacon
by Stuck in the Plains on Jul 19, 2011 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Ack.
I don’t think I like Bloops. Or these (from the same article):
Five other significant unexplained sounds have been named by NOAA: Julia, Train, Slow Down, Whistle and Upsweep.
In general, I like explained things better than unexplained things.
by Queen of the Universe on Jul 19, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
As an Architeuthis and Mesonychoteuthis Hamiltoni fanatic, I am DIGGING this monicker.
Charles Martel, Charlemagne, William the Conqueror, Raymond IV the Count of Toulouse, Godfrey of Bouillon, Baldwin of Boulogne, Henry II, Richard the Lionheart, St. Joan of Arc and Napoleon Bonaparte -- all of good stock.
by TiderUpNorth on Jul 19, 2011 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions
LSU commits major infractions...
…self-imposes one year probation.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 19, 2011 2:18 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Hi-jacker!
"It's not the size of the cat in the fight, it's size of the fight in the cat"
"Pep talks... only work when they touch that ember of truth learned the hardest possible way on the field.-Kleph
by thecalicocat on Jul 19, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
This train was already off track...
…and I thought y’all might wanna know….
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 19, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Tweets4nls
"There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self." - Ernest Hemingway
by BamaReturns07 on Jul 19, 2011 6:37 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
This long black train?
"It's not the size of the cat in the fight, it's size of the fight in the cat"
"Pep talks... only work when they touch that ember of truth learned the hardest possible way on the field.-Kleph
by thecalicocat on Jul 20, 2011 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Watch out, Brother, for that one!
"Auburn people are stinky"- my 3 yr.old daughter
by You can call me Al on Jul 20, 2011 8:08 AM CDT up reply actions
You go that right, Al!
I love that song by the way.
"It's not the size of the cat in the fight, it's size of the fight in the cat"
"Pep talks... only work when they touch that ember of truth learned the hardest possible way on the field.-Kleph
by thecalicocat on Jul 22, 2011 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions
If you wanna see the difference in quality
You’ll never see mathematical breakdown bomb shit like this on TET. I think math hurts their brains.
"There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self." - Ernest Hemingway
by BamaReturns07 on Jul 19, 2011 6:34 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
thanks but lets be clear here
there isn’t much “math” involved in what i do with these posts. i’m more trying to examine readily available statistics in a visual manner that might help understand things better. usually i’m trying to see if there is a season-to-season trend of some sort and then making as reasonable an assumption for why it may or may not exist in my commentary.
for real numbers crunching and analysis you have to check out folks like bill c. at football study hall. that’s some serious mathematical heavy lifting that i do my best simply to wrap my head around.
and in absolute fairness there’s no requirement that any website on sb nation has to follow any particular format. each one is a combination of the skills of the contributors responding to the perceived interests of the readership. i’ve never seen a “mathematical breakdown” on edsbs but it doesn’t seem to affect that site’s audience.
but, all that said, we appreciate your kind words.
Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All
You know what I meant
Numbers = math to the barners. Either way, may as well be calculus.
"There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self." - Ernest Hemingway
by BamaReturns07 on Jul 22, 2011 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions
You're being presumtptious.
There is insufficient evidence that all Barners have brains.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Holy hell
what a typing fail. Presumptuous.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
That first spelling was sure was sumtpthing....
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jul 19, 2011 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Good stuff, Kleph, as always!
The point of the post wasn’t lost on me, at all. And, to a certain degree, the scheme has a lot to do with it. Saban loves to force opposing QB’s to beat his defenses by throwing through some (hopefully) very small “zone-windows”. My perfect example from last year would be the S.C.game, where Garcia threw two perfect passes in near-perfect coverage, one for a score. Now, as far as the 3-4 not being a sack-friendly package, that depends entirely on personnel, and, their position on the field. In 09, we sent our small LB’s (Anders, etc.) and “money” DB’s (Arenas,etc) on blitzes specific to the offensive formations shown already. This past year (early on), we sent more blitzes up the middle, on stunts, than in 09. At the end of the year, more of the conventional OLB blitzes were the norm. We can get these sacks this year, I believe, with the personnel we have. But, once again, my worry comes with the D-line and it’s ability to limit big running plays. Sorry to babble, but, the pain meds have kicked in.
"...because you've got your mind right, and that's the way we like it." Nick Saban
Well, the post of the point of the point of the post was certainly lost on me.
Aw dis defensiveness n’shit! Threes and fours!
RELEASE THE KRAKEN!!!
Surriously tho… I think as long as the DLine can perform well as a containing & run-stuffing crew, that will release the Line Backers to… OMG, our opponents are in sooooo much trouble.
Charles Martel, Charlemagne, William the Conqueror, Raymond IV the Count of Toulouse, Godfrey of Bouillon, Baldwin of Boulogne, Henry II, Richard the Lionheart, St. Joan of Arc and Napoleon Bonaparte -- all of good stock.
by TiderUpNorth on Jul 19, 2011 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions
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