Trying to Normalize Best Defense in CFB History
by ajzride on Jan 24, 2012 9:44 AM CST
Email
Printed.- bumped from the fanposts. good stuff.
First off, I'd like to say that what I love most about Roll Bama Roll is the amount of objective data and statistics that the site provides. The day RBR became my favorite website was the day I read my first Running Back Success Rates article. Something about the stats just speaks to Engineer in me. With that being said, this year with the Advanced Statistical Analysis (At least for the first half of the season), RBR became as awesome to me as FHM.com must be to 13 year old boys.
In an effort to repay all the joy that RBR has given me, and inspired by the Defensive Efficieny posts from last week, I've attempted to take a similar look at the contenders that seem to be thrown around as the best in College Football History (well modern era anyway), to see if Dre was right, and 2011 Bama was the "greatest defense to ever take the field."
First off, I have selected 4 contenders based on the talking heads commentary in the aftermath of the BCSNCG.
1986 Oklahoma
1988 Auburn
2001 Miami
2011 Alabama
The goal is to try and normalize for the fact that in the last 20 years the popularity of 7 on 7 camps and the spread offense has driven up the productivity of offenses in CFB. My goal is to compare how many points a team averaged, versus how many points it scored on these great defenses. The more points a team is held below their average, the better the defense has performed. Also I have only included statistics for games against FCS (Div I) competition (Because it is hard to get data for non FBS teams) Check out the stats and comments after the break.
1986 Oklahoma:
On the season Oklahoma's opponents averaged 24.3 PPG when not playing Oklahoma, while those teams averaged 6.75 PPG against the Sooners. Overall Oklahoma held it's opponents to 17.5 points below their season average.
Additionally, Oklahoma tossed 5 shutouts, and 2 three point games. This is interesting to note, because while an offense can score to the thousands, a defense cannot do better than a shutout. The average PPG for those 7 teams was 22, which is almost 4 points better than OU season gap.
It is interesting to think that if those teams averaged 30 PPG, could oklahoma have held them to a 29 point gap, or even a 25 point gap? The 1986 Oklahoma Defense was indeed very very very good.
1988 Auburn:
On the season Auburn's opponents averaged 24.7 PPG when not playing Auburn, while those teams averaged 7.67 PPG against the Plainsmen. Overall Auburn held it's opponents to 17.0 points below their season average.
Additionally, Auburn tossed 3 shutouts, and 0 three point games. The average PPG for those 3 teams was 21.5, Which is 3.5 points better than Auburn's season gap. Auburn allowed teams to score 0.5 more PPG closer to average than Oklahoma.
Considering that Auburn's opponents only averaged 0.4 PPG more than Oklahoma's, and that the Tigers only had 3 games with less than 4 points, and Oklahoma had 7, I'm keeping the Sooner's in the top spot for now.
2001 Miami
On the season Miami's opponents averaged 26.6 PPG when not playing Miami, while those teams averaged 9.75 PPG against the The U. Overall Miami held it's opponents to 16.9 points below their season average.
Additionally, Miami tossed 3 shutouts, and 1 three point games. The average PPG for those 4 teams was 20.6, which is 3.7 points better than Miami's season gap.
At over half a point closer to average on the gap, despite teams only scoring 2 PPG more on the season, combined with the lack of shutouts, I think Oklahoma had a better defense than Miami. Despite the number of NFL stars to come off that Miami team, I guess something is to be said for coaching and team chemistry.
2011 Alabama
On the season Alabama's opponents averaged 27.9 PPG when not playing Alabama, while those teams averaged 7.1 PPG against the Tide. Overall Alabama held it's opponents to 20.8 points below their season average.
Additionally, Alabama tossed 3 shutouts, and 0 three point games. The average PPG for those 3 teams was 32, which is almost 12 points better than Alabama season gap.
While I am concerned about the lack of shutouts or 3 point games by the Tide, Alabama's opponents averaged almost 4 PPG better than Oklahoma's did, and Alabama still managed to hold them to a almost 4 PPG larger gap, which is almost an 8 PPG game swing. WOW!!!
Ed. As noted in comments, this is basically double counting.
At this point, I have decided that Alabama and Oklahoma boast the two best defenses in modes CFB history, and Alabama appears to have an outstanding claim over the Sooners. But as good as those numbers looked, I though they should look better, My memory is seared by 2 Non-Offensive TD's by Auburn, and a Pick-(almost)6 to the 1 in the Kent State game. I decided to try and adjust the number for Non-Offensive TD's, or TD's setup by a turnover inside the 15. Although I could find no official stats for these in 1986, I was able to find game recaps for the 86 Sooners, and tried to make due with that.
1986 Oklahoma Defense Adjusted for Special Teams and Turnover Scores:
Oklahoma's gap improved to 18.2 PPG (about 0.7 PPG increase), and the sub 4-points games remained the same.
2011 Alabama Defense Adjusted for Special Teams and Turnover Scores:
Alabama's gap improved to 22.8 PPG (2 PPG increase), and the sub 4-points games increased by 2 to five.
With the adjustments not only has Alabama increased it's gap by two, for almost a 10 PPG swing over Oklahoma, but and they have matched the Sooner's 5 shutouts.
I Know it is impossible to fully compare teams from different era's but I think the numbers above can make a compelling argument that Dre was not delusional, Alabama probably fielded the greatest D on turf!
Ed. For those commenting that GSU was not included, adding GSU in makes Alabama's overall PPG gap decrease from 20.8 to 20.4, which is still almost 3 PPG higher than Oklahoma. When looking at the adjusted stats for turnovers and special teams, it actually has no effect.
FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.
41 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Well Done!
Very good post, I think you are right. Although comparing teams from different eras is subjective at best, with the added emphasis on high powered offenses I think the 2011 Bama D might very well be the best in modern times. At least since the great Bama D’s of the sixties, IMHO.
Great Job
No time to do the math, but I wonder what it would look like if we had performed to our average with Georgia Southern. Maybe to be fair, we toss out Oklahoma’s worst showing.
Sports are a culture's way of getting at 5 or 6 great men... and then assuring that their greatness remains petty.
Correct, they were omitted because they were FCS, not because it was a bad game. Addionally, Oklahoma’s worst game was against #2 Miami, Which means the performance probably had more to do with Miami being good, rather than Oklahoma playing a bunch of backups like Bama did against GaSo.
by ajzride on Jan 24, 2012 8:35 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I wouldn't include them anyway because their stats are vs other FCS opponents.
If anything, you would just want to include stats vs their FBS opponents.
(And yeah, you could say that if you’re going to do that the same argument could be extended to Kent State and North Texas, but I think you have to draw the line somewhere, and FCS is a convenient dividing line.)
God bless our Dark Lord.
Nice work, but I think you've double bookkept here:
Alabama’s opponents averaged almost 4 PPG better than Oklahoma’s did, and Alabama still managed to hold them to a almost 4 PPG larger gap, which is almost an 8 PPG game swing. WOW!!!
I think that the gap is what you’re wanting to look at, and that is ~4 PPG (well, 3.3 actually) better for Alabama. Basically, Alabama held it’s opponents to about the same scoring avg as OU did even though Bama’s opponents were averaging 3.3 pts per game more. There is no 8 PPG swing.
God bless our Dark Lord.
Yes, I think you are correct. I was getting pretty tired towards the end there. I’ll put up an addendum
Later.
by ajzride on Jan 24, 2012 8:40 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I know you...
…have a couple of minor revisions to make, but this was still an excellent review. Thank you for providing additional data to support the claim we’ve been making for weeks. Roll Tide.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jan 24, 2012 9:52 AM CST reply actions
I think you must include the GSU game.
I know we can rationalize it by saying they aren’t in the same division as us but (1) teams play out of division all the time and those stats count (2) we were the ones who scheduled them (3) it is not like we are playing up. I guess playing up for us would be like us playing an NFL team. Yep, if we played an NFL team then don’t count those stats.
I suspect if we counted GSU then we might not edge out the 86 OU team. Not having the desire to do the math I’ll just say that is my feeling.
Furthermore, the GSU game is the very reason I voted the 61 defense as our best defense ever. Say what you want, but we had a poor game against GSU defensively and we just ought to admit it while we are proclaiming this team the best team to ever wear crimson.
By the way, when you factor points scored against us on turnovers, returns etc. in order to be fair you must go back and refactor the opponents points per game they scored during the season by turnovers etc. In other words if Auburn averaged 25 points a game, but during the year they averaged 7 of those points by special teams etc. they you need to change their average to 18 before you figure our difference of 25 which you did not do. I have no idea what AU or anyone else scored on turnovers, returns, etc. but I’d suspect a fair amount of LSU’s points came that way.
Finally, since you took into consideration turnovers inside the 15, you must also figure in “garbage time” points- scored both directions. Again I think some teams have a higher points per game, such as UF, because they like to pile it on when they can. Oh, yes, if you don’t count GSU you must go to all our opponents and reduce their points per game figuring the points they piled up against FCS.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Most of these...
…are very good points, but I do think you’re overestimating how ‘bad’ our defense looked against Georgia Southern. They only allowed 14 points (one TD came on a kick return), and one of those TDs came on the only pass completed by Georgia Southern in the game. And I’m sure you remember the number of players who did not play in that game. We were practically watching the scout team that day, and they gave up two scores to a very good FCS team. Their offense is probably one of the top five we faced all season. That game was just so different from every other in so many ways.
That said, one of the main reasons I couldn’t vote for the 1961 defense over the 2011 one is that I would have to vote for the 1925 or 1930 defenses before I could choose the ’61 team as they were so much more dominant (each shut out eight of the ten teams they faced — let that sink in for a moment).
Most importantly, I find these disputes extremely satisfying, because no matter the outcome, we all still win. Roll Tide.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jan 24, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
We were practically watching the scout team that day
I only remember Chapman and Gentry being out for the whole game, Williams being out for the second half, and Barron sustaining his rib injury late in the game. Am I forgetting someone? Granted having to dig so deep at NG hurt us, but I was thinking the rest of our major contributors played.
Granted having to dig so deep at NG hurt us
That was the biggest thing, I think. We had our top 2 out, and we prepped Williams to be the main man in their place, but then HE went down in the first half. Then I guess it was Dial (?) that we tried to plug in there, but he wasn’t prepared to play against GSU’s scheme.
God bless our Dark Lord.
That's what I was thinking
Moving Williams and others inside also affected our DE rotation, so there were other repercussions beyond just the one spot. Seeing comments like “we were practically watching the scout team” and ajzride’s “Oklahoma playing a bunch of backups like Bama did” above made me wonder if I was forgetting something though.
Perhaps...
…I exaggerated a bit, but it definitely felt that way when our fourth-string DT was out there….
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jan 24, 2012 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
Your are right Sat.
it was not the Bama D we saw v. LSU or even AU. That being said those guys were wearing Crimson as best I remember.
And as far as saying we can’t count Ga. So. unless we see how the did against other BCS schools the we should actually be glad to count how they did against the East Popcorn States because they should have run it up on them and since we held them to 21 our difference should be pretty high.
Bottom line Alabama was playing that day and Alabama gave them 21. It needs to be counted.
And by the way, it just gives us some room for improvement.
And personally I think you just look at points scored however they were scored. Defense is a team game and defense is not just when a unit called defense is on the field. It is also kick offs and punts and protecting the ball, running clock, field position etc. . It is a total package and most of the players will tell you that. Making it just what a defensive unit does diminishes the over all plan the coaches have etc.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Hmmm...
…Well I never said the we shouldn’t count the game, just that we should look at it for what it actually was, instead of just looking at the score and leaving it at that.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jan 24, 2012 6:17 PM CST up reply actions
One small point I have to quibble on.
Their offense is probably one of the top five we faced all season.
Um, that might be overstating it. Schematically, they had a style of play that we weren’t well-prepared for, and they took advantage. Thankfully, we had adjusted by the time we saw the option again in the NCG.
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer Give 'Em HELL Alabama!
by RoscoeOfAlabama on Jan 24, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
Go ahead...
…name five that were better. I’ll listen.
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jan 24, 2012 6:18 PM CST up reply actions
Gladly
- Arkansas (obviously)
- LSU (when they weren’t playing us, they were pretty damn good)
- Vanderbilt (less obvious, but put more points on the board vs Elon than GSU did)
- Auburn (common opponent with GSU: Samford)
- Florida (common opponent with GSU: Furman)
The highest I can comfortably rank GSU is #6.
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer Give 'Em HELL Alabama!
by RoscoeOfAlabama on Jan 24, 2012 7:47 PM CST up reply actions
I should add
that numbers 3, 4 and 5 are largely interchangeable in my mind.
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer Give 'Em HELL Alabama!
by RoscoeOfAlabama on Jan 24, 2012 7:48 PM CST up reply actions
Mine, too...
…along with your #6, that is. We do have the same top two, though, FWIW….
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jan 25, 2012 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
It's hard to know what to do with GSU
Such a complete outlier: team from a lower division, running an offense we’ve never played against, and us without our top 2 NGs and the 3rd one only playing a half. Given the handicaps we had, I’m happy with only giving up 14 points on defense, but still a little disappointed we gave up so many yards.
I guess the fair comparison would be if we could somehow have the ‘86 Oklahoma team play one of the top 1AA teams running a modern spread or passing offense, and make OU sit their top 2 DBs and only allow them to play their 3rd best for a half. I would have to think they’d be happy to only give up 14 points in such a scenario. Looking at the teams they played, I would guess that Miami had probably the closest thing to what we would call a modern offense, and OU’s Defense gave up 21 to them.
I didn’t drop GSU because of the poor stats, they averaged 36 PPG this year, it would not have hurt us that bad. I dropped GSU because I knew it would be nearly impossible to find stats for FCS teams that 1986 Oklahoma or 1988 Auburn played, so I excluded the whole group, before I ever started crunching numbers. This is a fairly common practice for looking at full season stats.
by ajzride on Jan 24, 2012 2:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I would love to adjust points scored by all of our opponents for ST, TO, and garbage time, but that would take me weeks to Compile all those stats by hand.
by ajzride on Jan 24, 2012 2:42 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Good job!
Re Miami—it must also be noted that at the time they played in that joke of a conference, the Big Least.
The ACC ain't much of an upgrade, but I hear ya....
"High standards come from passion within...." --Coach Nick Saban
by NiceLittleSaturday on Jan 24, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
And the Big East with
Virginia Tech, and BC was a much different beast. Not to mention I believe that was Donovan McNabb’s big year as Syracuse went 10-3. Add in non-conference matchups with Florida State and Washington and the Hurricanes played at least 5 8+ win teams that year.
I'm guessing that's the kind of thing that would get me fired here.
And I’m also guessing that the people who went to FHM will not be able to show you their hands.
God bless our Dark Lord.
by CarrotTop4 on Jan 24, 2012 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
All I can say is
I never thought I’d see a defense which made me think anything was better than the ’92 guys, but 2011 might have turned the trick.
"Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labor does the body."
― Seneca
Yeah
A lot of defenses—2011 LSU in particular, beat you by forcing turnovers. We didn’t do that so much as we simply looked at whatever you were trying to do, and Just Said No.
And I gotta say, there were few things I enjoyed more than watching teams try to run a reverse on us. Invariably, there would be a LB in the backfield waiting on the ball carrier with a “Bitch, PLEASE” look on his face.
by jthomas666 on Jan 24, 2012 11:24 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Great point.
Did we get beaten by a trick play, like, ever, all season?
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer Give 'Em HELL Alabama!
by RoscoeOfAlabama on Jan 24, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
Another point of comparison
No offense all year scored on us more than twice in regulation. Looks like Miami and Nebraska pulled that off against ‘86 OU, UNC and FSU did it against ’88 AU, and 3 teams did that to ’01 Miami (though I don’t know if any of these scores were ST or off turnovers). Had we not given up the kick return against GSU, no team would have scored over 14 on us. The last team to hold every opponent to 14 or less was ’74 Oklahoma.
No offense all year scored on us more than twice in regulation
Didn’t Arky get 2 TD’s?
Follow on twitter @thelyell
A Hundred Pounds Lost
Ok, I did a little back of the envelope figuring....
Georgia Southern scored 471 points in the 13 games other than Alabama, for an average of 36.23 ppg, holding them under average by 15.23 points. That would have affected the ppg reduction by 0.43 ppg. Since we left out FCS opponents, and the tables are set up that way….I noticed something else. Each of the other three contenders reduced their opponent’s average ppg by approximately 1.4 ppg for the season. Alabama reduced it’s opponent’s average ppg by over 2.1 ppg, which is a significant movement of an average.
Great job on this post!
"Imagination is everything." Albert Einstein
"Touch that thang, Fo' ! " Courtney Upshaw
I know they all count
But in two of the games, weren’t the only scores off of unlikely bombs thrown on the first or second play of the game? I think it was Florida and Ole Miss. The touchdown pass from Ga S. was almost the obligatory 1 td pass per game given they run, run, run and then suprise throw that one pass. Who can break down the other teams’ contention for best ever anyway other than plain stats without considering these types of anomolies as we can ours with it being so fresh on our minds. Those types of plays skew the numbers in my opinon. I think it is all relative anyway. If I’d been born in the forties I think I could have played on the college level in the ‘60s. I probably couldn’t run the gatorade bottles on the field out fast enough to the players now with the players they have today. That is if I was 18 today and built with the same physique I had 24 years ago. At any rate each team from different eras played against their peers, so each team mentioned here or on the all time Alabama great list were exceptional. What stands out to me about this ’11 team is that their numbers were posted in an era where offenses are more scheme prolific and scoring is more lauded.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
