SEC Running Back Success Rates | Isaiah Crowell (Georgia)
by Todd on Jan 24, 2012 8:50 PM CST
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PrintI had planned to count these down from #10 - #1 of the SEC's Top Ten Rushers but quickly remembered that the days of the feature back are almost gone and looking at the performance of individual backs in crowded backfields doesn't paint the same picture as looking at all of them together. Only LSU really had a running back by committee approach, using four different backs on a regular basis, but looking at someone like Chris Rainey, who finished sixth in the league at 71.8 yards per game, without also looking at Jeff Demps doesn't really paint the whole picture. So I'm skipping ahead for the next couple of days with guys who carried the biggest portion of their team's burden, like Georgia's Isaiah Crowell. While the Dawgs did routinely use rushers Carlton Thomas and Richard Samuel, Crowell's 185 carries was still 30 more than their 155 combined carries despite missing both the New Mexico State and Georgia Tech games. What I'm trying to get at here is that Crowell was the main event, so let's just go with it.
For those of you who are new to this, the Running Back Success Rate is a measure of how "successful" each of a running back's rushing attempts are. A "successful" run is one that :
Gains at least 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on 1st down
Gains at least 60% of the yardage needed to move the chains on 2nd down
Gains at least 100% of the yardage needed to move the chains on 3rd and 4th down
With that in mind, here are Crowell's numbers over the course of the season.
| Opponent | Total Att | Successful Att | Success Rate | Yds | Avg |
| Boise St. | 15 | 6 | 40% | 60 | 4.0 |
| S. Carolina | 16 | 7 | 44% | 118 | 7.4 |
| Coastal Carolina | 16 | 7 | 44% | 86 | 5.4 |
| Ole Miss | 30 | 9 | 30% | 147 | 4.9 |
| Miss. St. | 22 | 11 | 50% | 104 | 4.7 |
| Tennessee | 19 | 7 | 37% | 58 | 3.1 |
| Vanderbilt | 10 | 4 | 40% | 35 | 3.5 |
| Florida | 18 | 8 | 44% | 81 | 4.5 |
| Auburn | 24 | 15 | 63% | 132 | 5.5 |
| Kentucky | 2 | 2 | 100% | 11 | 5.5 |
| LSU | 10 | 1 | 10% | 15 | 1.5 |
| Michigan St. | 3 | 1 | 33% | 3 | 1.0 |
| Total | 185 | 78 | 42% | 850 | 4.6 |
| vs SEC | 151 | 64 | 42% | 701 | 4.6 |
Again, for the sake of comparison among the SEC back we will only be looking at their performance against conference opponents to eliminate stat skewing performances against OOC cupcakes, but in Crowell's case it's almost a moot point. Both his success rate and ypc average remained the same against the total schedule and the conference slate. I suspect a big reason is that, as previously mentioned, he sat two of the OOC games, giving him less of an opportunity to pad the stats sheets as some of the other backs in the league. So let's look at his in conference performance:
As most of you will recall, Crowell was a VHT, super stud recruit that pretty much everyone in the SEC, including Alabama, wanted and was effectively thrust into the starting role as a true freshman after Georgia faced a mass exodus (in one way or another) of running backs over the off season. That graph you see up there? That's almost exactly what I expected from a super stud true freshman that's long on talent but short on experience/development. I think a big part of that is the fact he was being counted on as a workhorse as a true freshman, and that's a pretty heavy load to carry in the SEC. You can see a steady decline in both his yardage and ypc average after the South Carolina game. The next week Crowell carried 30 times against Ole Miss, and not only did his yards/ypc decline but so did his number of carries. Not until a relatively light 10 carries against Vandy (and a week off before Auburn) did his numbers start to improve in those areas and get back to where you generally want your feature back to be. He also only carried twice against Kentucky (his best performance with 100% success!), but against a stout LSU defense he simply couldn't get anything going again. Looking at his success rate numbers, he remained fairly consistent, even showing a steady rise before running into the LSU defense's brick wall in the SEC Championship Game. The less than 50% numbers aren't good, though, and coupled with the sharp decline in yardage in the midseason you get the sense that, as a true freshman, Crowell simply wasn't really ready to carry the load that was put on him. The wear of the workhorse load eliminated the explosive plays that drive up the yardage/ypc numbers, and the true freshman in him kept him from being able to allow plays to develop and be the consistent grinder that can routinely keep the offense on schedule and move the chains when necessary. Overall, I'm actually pretty impressed with Crowell. If he can really take a big leap next year and develop the talent that is clearly there, Georgia will have themselves a heck of a feature back.
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My UGA friends are not as high
on Crowell as you are Todd. They think Crowell is a bit of a baby and gets “hurt” too much. They actually think they have not one, but two RB recruits coming in from NC that they think will beat out Crowell. They actually expected Crowell to be at least All-SEC last year. His year was seen as a letdown for many of them.
Of course UGA fans tend to be very optimistic on their recruits and very unrealistic about their team. They feel they should have beat LSU and of course MSU. They think with the guys they recruited last year and the group they having coming this year they will win the NC in 2012. The honestly felt that if they had not lost to SC last year, a game they claim they were robed somehow, they would have been in the NC game. (They reason they would have beat LSU if it meant a trip to the NCG for them.) I’m serious. I live amongst them and they are very delusional.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Clarification
1. There are definitely some negative feelings toward Crowell in the Dawgnation. It mostly stems from a combo of injuries and suspensions. I think most Georgia fans could deal with the injuries, but when added with the suspensions, it wasn’t a great start for Crowell. I can understand the injuries and wearing down, but when you are given a great opportunity to be the man, you have to avoid the trappings that prevent that from happening.
I personally think there are some irrational feelings toward Crowell amongst Dog fans, but with the 2 high-profile recruits coming in, Crowell will have to work his butt off to stay in the rotation because CMR will have no problem going with a RB rotation like he did in the early-mid 2000s.
2. I don’t know if I would say UGA SHOULD have been LSU, but we definitely COULD have beat them. We did dominate them in the 1st half, then we made some mistakes and everything snowballed.
3. Again, UGA definitely COULD have beat Mich St and probably SHOULD have. We had a bigger lead at half and seemed to be in control. I mean, we lost the game in OT, so uh yeah, that was very winnable.
4. I am not ready to say UGA is a NC team in 2012. I definitely think they are probably a top 15 team. We have to replace 3 guys on the OL- 2 of which will probably be drafted and we will miss our punter, Boykin and the Blair Walsh from 2010 (the one that SHOULD have been the 1st team All-SEC Kicker). Will will return a lot of guys on a vey good defense and have some talent at the skill postions on Offense. Plus, as South Carolina likes to remind us, the schedule is conducive to winning. Obviously, any path to the MNC goes through the SECCG (or does it?) and either Bama or LSU.
5a. I won’t say we were robbed in the South Carolina game, but I will say we gave it away. We lost by 3 points and spotted them 21 on TOs and fake punts. It was definitely one we SHOULD have one, but UGA botched it up.
5b. Now, if we had beaten South Carolina, which I think we should have, we would have been 11-1 with a loss to top 10 Boise St heading to the SECCG. IF we would have won that, we would have had as good of an argument for the BCS game as most. However, that was contingent on winning 2 games we didn’t, so there was no way we deserved to be in the BCS game and if we had been, with the way Bama played, we would have gotten whipped anyway.
6. Lastly, it is rich to hear a Bama fan call UGA fans delusional. I guess as the old saying goes, it takes one to know one.
But, 1980'n shit!
9th January, 2012: Section 101, Row 1, Seat... I'll let y'all spot that one.
"And a crashin' blow from a huge right hand
Sent a Louisiana fellow to the Promised Land"
-- "Big John" by Jimmy Dean
by TiderUpNorth on Jan 25, 2012 2:01 AM CST up reply actions
Sorry y'all, I just gotta stir this pot...
…but how are we delusional?
1. Saban will leave after two years! Five seasons later and he’s still here with zero signs of departing.
2. Alabama’s time is done! Y’all will never have the kind of success you think you should have! Four straight 10+ win seasons, two SEC West Titles, an SEC Title, and two national titles in three years.
3. Bama can’t get the top recruits! Auburn/Florida/LSU/Georgia are where all the kids want to go! Top rated recruiting classes beg to differ.
4. Bear’s dead! Well, that’s still true, so you got us there. Guess we are delusional.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
by Todd on Jan 25, 2012 8:08 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I think the "Bama fans are delusional" stereotype
comes from your fanbase’s undying belief that you should be competing for the National Championship every year, and your extreme disappointment when you don’t. Also the Finebaum show doesn’t help
Further, I don’t know why anyone would want to go to Auburn and not Bama. I mean, really, who wants to go to Auburn?
Why is that delusional?
If you’re not expecting to compete for a national championship year in and year out, then you’ll never have the kind of program that will. But hey, if y’all are cool with mediocrity occasionally sprinkled with success, then it’s all yours.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
And again, how are we delusional...
….when we kept saying “all we need is the right coach and we can be back on top in no time?” Saban walks in, 2nd year 12-2 and played for the SEC, 3rd year National Championship, etc. To be blunt, everyone that said no one could ever take Alabama back to being an elite program that will live up to the “delusional standards of Bama fans” were the delusional ones since the exact opposite of everything that was predicted about Alabama and it’s demise happened.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
Could not agree more.
non Bama fans just assumed we would never be on top again. What they failed to see was a tremendous fan base, a great university, a great college town, a great facility (which we could upgrade…and did), an AD who was committed to winning not just being ok, a President who wanted to be the best, a boat load of talent in the state, literally hundreds of former players who wanted to be back on top. We had all the ingredients. All we needed was a tough as nails coach that knew how to win and would settle for nothing less.
We were delusional. No, we saw what the non Bama people never saw. We were and will always be Dixie’s Football Pride. Winning championships was what we do and and it is what we always expected to do.
UGA…well they have 2 in their 100+ year history and I suspect given another 25 or 30 years they may add another.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Hey foto
I’m just calling it the way I see it. I live in GA, and I talk with UGA fans every day. Every year it is the same thing, “we have the best class and we are going to really do it now.”
I like their optimism. And, I generally pull for them over most SEC teams. But they are delusional. Mark Richt is not going to win the NC unless somehow Herschel’s son shows up in Athens.
If you consider the amount of high school talent in GA. If you consider your main in state recruiting rival, GT, is generally a non factor in recruiting. If you consider where the SEC has been the last 30 years. If you do all that you have to admit that the fact that UGA has not won a NC in over 30 years can be attributed to only one thing…poor coaching. Think about it. Since Herschel UT, UF, AU, LSU, and Bama have all won National Championships. UF, LSU, and Bama have won multiple titles. Even Tech has won one since you guys won one. UGA has under preformed. And, as long as they keep Richt they will keep under preforming. And yet every year I keep hearing “This is our year.” Wake up, it will never be your year unless you make major changes.
But, as a Bama fan i like you guys having Richt. It allows us to steal some major talent form GA and he wins just enough to keep you guys from being a major force.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
C'mon guys
Give us a chance, we’re still trying to dig ourselves out of a six-win season. You should understand, 2007 wasn’t that long ago.
You made progress in 2011
and you should feel good about that. But, for 20 years, actually for longer than that, all the way back to the Goff days and then the Donnan days and now under Richt I have continually heard UGA people saying this was their year. This year they were going to win it all. For a while it was annoying, but now it is just funny.
True in 10+ years Richt has won 2 SEC titles. But, I do not think UGA is what it could be. I do feel most UGA fans, though eternally optimistic, have been willing to settle for a coach, that considering the talent available, has under preformed. I really don’t care if they keep CMR, although I like him there but for the wrong reasons.
I feel the UGA powers that be have decided that going to the Outback and Capital One with the occasional Sugar Bowl is good enough. I mean they must feel that way because that is where they are. So be it. I would never be happy with that at Bama and most Bama people would not. We did run off or fire some coaches, but now we have 2 crystal balls.
UGA could become the LSU of the SEC East. Shoot, they could become the Alabama of the SEC East. But, they won’t.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Ok, so my question to you is:
How have we “underperformed”? Mark Richt has a .739 winning percentage and 107 wins over 11 seasons. In the SEC. He has 2 SEC championships, 5 top 10 finishes, 2 top 3 finishes, 7 ten-win seasons, and a 7-4 bowl record including two Sugar Bowl wins. He’s won SEC coach of the year twice. His best season was 13-1, the same as Les Mile’s best season. And, consequently, the same as Nick Saban’s most recent championship season. The difference? There happened to be 2 undefeated teams that year. Les Miles’ championship came with an 11-2 team. Mark Richt has had team with the same record twice, including one the same year. In fact, going into the last weekend of the year, that team was ranked higher than Les Miles team, but they didn’t get into the NC game. The difference? Well, at the time, people were operating under the apparently ridiculous belief that a team that didn’t even win its division shouldn’t play in the national championship game.
Mark Richt has been as good as almost anyone during his tenure. When things started to go bad, he made changes to turn it around. Now the only thing he’s lacking in the trophy case is the Crystal ball, and he has had both the team and the record in the past to win it, just not in the year he had them. Right place, wrong time. It takes luck a good deal of luck for you to win a national championship, and we just haven’t had it yet. Will we get lucky in the near future? Or under Richt at all? I don’t know, but I’d rather keep a guy who has gotten us in the right place before than ditch him for somebody who hasn’t.
Please stay with CMR, please.
How have you under preformed? Well, by UGA standards I’d say you have not. By Bama standards I’d say you have.
Anytime Bama goes a decade or (in UGA’s case 3 ) without winning a NC we will admit to you that we have under preformed.
At Alabama we expect to win a NC about every 6 or 7 years. Since 1925, when we started taking football serious, we have won 14, that is one NC about every 6 years. In truth we don’t want a class to graduate from Bama without winning a NC. It doesn’t always work out that way, but that is what we want.
When we had Perkins and Curry we under preformed even though they each had 10 win seasons and bowls every year. The Stallings years were ok, but even then we did not capitalize on a weak SEC West. We definitely under preformed with Dubose, Fran and Shula. Even though each had a 10 win season and Dubose picked up an SEC title.
As far as luck that has nothing to do with it in the long haul. Yes on a given year you may be unlucky but over time that will level out. If anything Bryant was unlucky not to win in 66 when were the only perfect team and then in 74 & 77 we had some real bad luck not to win it those years. But, we never complained about bad luck we just buckled down and won it in 78& 79.
So, by your standards your great coach is probably the best you can get and probably the best you hope to do. Which is just fine with us because we really like Smart. And, if Richt left who knows what might happen if you tried to get Smart.
By the way…at Bama we only dump Gatorade when we win the NC and we have never torn down a goal post because you don’t win the NC at your own stadium and we are too polite to tear another stadiums goal post down. When was the last time you dumped Gatorade on Richt? Was it when he beat UF? I know you have done it. And I saw you all tear down the goal post one year when you beat UT in just a regular season game. Just saying it is a different standard of excellence.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
You're absolutely right
It is a different standard of excellence. We haven’t achieved as much as Bama, so we’re happy with less. But very few have achieved as much as you, and the standard for “underachieving” or “overachieving” is very relative. While being a consistent top 10 team for most of a decade without a national championship may be underachieving for you, I think 99% of the teams in the NCAA would trade their left arm for that. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then, and if we continue to be that competitive, we’ll get a NC eventually. As far as Smart, excuse us for not dismissing the best coach in school history to take a flyer on a DC who many people suspect to be fully responsible for the play of his defense.
As far as the last time we dumped gatorade or pulled down the goal posts, I could care less. Lots of schools do it. Notre Dame has more I can tell that only once in the entire history of Sanford Stadium has the crowd rushed the field and torn the goal, and that was in 2000 after breaking a long losing streak to Tennessee.
By the way, drop the condescension pal. It was only 4 years ago that you guys lost to ULM at home. Even the most storied of programs have bad times.
Did we lose to ULM?
Yeah I know we lost but let me tell you what happened. Saban never lets a loss just go. Since that loss we have gone 49-7 which is the best record in football since that game and since that loss we have won 2 NC. Furthermore, even our losses since then he actually changed our team for the better. In 08 we lost to UF and Utah, those terrible games motivated us to come back the next year and go 14-0, beat the same UF team we lost to and claim a NC. Then last year we let down after the NC with 3 losses, but we came back strong this year and only had one close game all year…LSU, which we lost, but then…well you saw what happened in the NCG. And, we will be better in 2012 than people think because of what happened after the 09 NC. We will not let down this time.
But, lets talk about UGA a minute. At the beginning of 2008 UGA was preseason #1…because they had talent, loads of talent. Then they started 4-0 and looked like they were ready for a championship run. All my UGA friends were proclaiming it the best UGA team since HW with the best UGA coach ever. But then Richt had to go cute and call for a black out on Sept 27. Only it didn’t work. UGA was blown out by Bama. And, since that date, UGA has gone 30-19 and that includes your awesome 10 win season this year. From Bama’s low in 2007 when everyone was laughing at us we have been the dominate team in football. Since #`1 UGA went all black they have been pretty average.
But who knows maybe 2012 is that season the UGA fans have been talking about since 1980. After all you have the best coach in UGA history. Please, please, please, give him a 10 year contract.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
I am so impressed by your clairvoyant certainty!
Hey, could you tell me the lottery numbers for tonight? Or how about who really killed JFK? Will I ever find true love?!?!?
Give me a break dude, you can no more predict the remainder of Richt’s tenure than I can. Bama fans like to think that certain things will always hold to be true. After 2009, a good Bama friend of mine predicted you win the SEC west every year for AT LEAST the next 5 years. You haven’t won it since. Mark Richt is a good coach who has had a tremendous amount of success in the SEC. In fact, the only coach currently in the SEC with more SEC championships than him is Nick Saban, and he is tied with Les Miles. I wonder if we had backed into that same 2007 NC game whether or not we would even be having this discussion.
As far as making major changes, we have been doing that. He brought in a new DC that really ought to have won the Broyles award this past year. We’ve gone from recruiting classes in the high teens to the top 10. We’ve hired a new S&C coach. The program has been thoroughly reinvigorated in the past couple years, and I think UGA has a very bright, very near future.
Typical UGA optimism.
Can I predict UGA under Richt. Nope. Even Chizik had his Cam.
But in what, 11 years, I have seen that Richt can recruit what seems to be good classes and then manage to win enough to keep you guys happy and optimistic. Had he backed in….etc. etc. The facts are he did not. And 5 years from now when he has won 2 more SECE titles and lost 2 more SECCG we will still be having the same argument. If he couldn’t get it done in 11 years it would seem to me he won’t get in done in 12 or 13 or 14.
And by getting it done I mean winning the NC because that is the goal. Or is it? Maybe the goal for UGA is to win 9 games and play in Orlando? If that is your goal, Richt is your man.
Even if some time he wins the SEC, which he might, I still do not think he will the NC.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Sorry to jab at your recent loss,
but yes, UGa SHOULD have beaten MSU, but then Mark Richt got in the way. That OT possession for UGa was perhaps the most inept coaching job I’ve ever seen.
God bless our Dark Lord.
You have to love that UGA constantly has the next Herschell coming in the next class. ;]]
9th January, 2012: Section 101, Row 1, Seat... I'll let y'all spot that one.
"And a crashin' blow from a huge right hand
Sent a Louisiana fellow to the Promised Land"
-- "Big John" by Jimmy Dean
by TiderUpNorth on Jan 25, 2012 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
One day the son of Herschell will arrive.
I just know it. But it might be a 100 years from now, so maybe it will be great grandson of Herschell.
If Auburn was in New Mexico and we never played them I would still hate them and their dumb coach and their cheating players.
Interesting stuff!
Well, I wonder also if his attitude did not hurt him. I seem to remember him sitting on the sidelines miff about something looking at his fingernails instead of the game. He’s a kid tho……
Bama's Pluck and Grit have Writ Her Name in Crimson Flame
If Crowell is able to learn some hard lessons from 2011, he will be a terrific back in 2012.
But yes, he is a kid and possibly in need of some maturation and extra/different coaching, as he certainly looked like he was brooding at times.
9th January, 2012: Section 101, Row 1, Seat... I'll let y'all spot that one.
"And a crashin' blow from a huge right hand
Sent a Louisiana fellow to the Promised Land"
-- "Big John" by Jimmy Dean
by TiderUpNorth on Jan 25, 2012 2:04 AM CST up reply actions
Like I said...
….he’s long on talent and short on experience and development, and being mature enough to handle being a star player for a big time SEC school is part of that.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
I think this is right.
Any look at UGA’s running game has to account for its inconsistent line play, so maybe it’d help to compare Crowell’s production to our other backs’ stats; however, they are all such different guys that the numbers will almost certainly get screwy.
Even with the addition of Marshall and Gurley, Crowell still probably has the highest ceiling. Continued success will require lots of conditioning, a fair dose of growing up, avoiding the injury bug, and an offensive line that consists of something other than 4 guards and a center.
We all hoped that Crowell could come out of the gate like Lattimore or Dyer (who wouldn’t?), but the more sober amongst us knew that 2010 was a truly exceptional year for freshmen RBs. Crowell helped our offense and didn’t cost us any games. Maybe one day he will be the kind of guy who can carry a team and not just a football, but he’s not there yet.
"Crowell helped our offense and didn’t cost us any games."
Pretty much sums it up, and for a true freshman that was essentially earned the start thanks to roster attrition before he was really settled on campus, that’s a pretty good compliment.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
We'll see how he does with more difficult competition in the backfield.
Last year, he was up against a RB/LB/RB-again and a 160 lb. scat back. Next year will be all those guys again, plus a burner in Marshall and a talented back in Gurley (plus Boo Malcome, who came on strong at the end of the year). Crowell’s going to have to get better to keep his featured spot, and he can be really good if he gets better. Or he might chill off into the sunset trailing an herbacous cloud of pleasant smoke. We’ll see.
by first and thom on Jan 25, 2012 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
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