Ok, even during this great run, which really began with Clemson in 2008, I’ve been sort of cautious. Yep, at times I’ve even hinted we would be pretty lucky to win by 2 or 3 points. I’ve never insinuated we would be defeated but I’ve certainly broached the subject. And, most of the time I have been roasted by many, both on this board and among my Bama friends and family in real life.
But, I’ve begun to drink the Kool-Aid. I honestly think we will win in BR and win convincingly. Not sure if we will score our usual 35-40 points. But a score of 27-6 would be my guess.
Now my assessment of this situation is not simply me trying to gain favor. I could care less about criticism. And I am not trying to be facetious. I really believe this based on an honest evaluation of the game.
To begin with I think our D matches up well against LSU’s offense. They want to run the ball, I think we can stop their run. I don’t think Mettenberger is good enough to beat us. I don’t think he is as good as Russell, note even close. Furthermore LSU’s receivers do not scare me like UT’s receivers. We have 2 good corners and some real good safeties. Against LSU that is enough in coverage.
Against LSU’s defense I think our offense can move the ball and score. I look for AJ to throw even more than he did Sat., probably 30-33 times. I’m not worried about him throwing more than 1 pick, if that. We can throw one pick and still win easily. I think we will start out throwing short, quick, routes to Williams, Lacy and Yeldon to slow down their rush. I think we will take some deep shots early with Bell and Cooper. I suspect we hit one of these. When we go deep we will keep Williams & Lacy in to give more protection. I do not think we can just run it down their throats, but I do think, especially if we run Yeldon, that we can gain some significant yards on the ground. I also think their offense will turn it over to us at least once or twice and gives us a short field. We will capitalize.
Special teams may be an LSU advantage as will be the home crowd. However, BR has not been terrible for Bama over the years. And I do think our special teams are sufficient and they will not cost us the game.
The main reason I’m feeling good about this game is LSU themselves. Their D is not what everyone thinks. In the last 4 games they have given up 22, 14, 21, and 19. That is good, but not great like last year. Their margin of victory has been really close. They beat AU by just 2, which right there should be a warning. They beat Towson (who is that?) by just 16. They beat SC by only 2 and A&M by only 5. One break against them in each of these 3 games (AU, SC, & A&M) and we have a 4-4 team here, not a 7-1 team. And to be honest, having watched them a lot this year, they look more like a number 25 team than a number 5 team.
Now anything is possible, but I honestly think this game will not be anywhere near last year’s regular season game. We are better than we were last Nov. on offense because we are better at passing. They are worse than last year on defense.
Ok, primarily I posted this to get reactions of others, so let me know what you think.
(By the way, right now, I’m a little more concerned about the A&M game than LSU. Not that I’m looking ahead.)