It's like Kwanzaa, Boxing Day, Ash Wednesday all rolled into one. That's right, people: Sagarin rankings are now well-connected!
(Essentially, that means enough teams have played each other that the model doesn't have to take preseason rankings into account anymore.)
What does that mean?
Well, for the SEC, very little changes (other than the results on the field, obviously):
SAGARIN SEC RANKINGS
Resulting in the following projected season:
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama (-10) over Florida
Some other fun results:
ACC CHAMP: Florida State (11-2, BCS bound but out of the title picture)
BIG EAST CHAMP: Cincinnati (12-0, OOC win over VT no longer impressive)
BIG TEN CHAMP: Nebraska (11-2, see FSU; Ohio State ends up 12-0 but not postseason-eligible)
BIG 12 CHAMP: Kansas State (11-1, no marquee OOC win, but the computers loves the Big 12 this year) (N.B. - Sagarin still thinks West Virginia is going to drop at least 3 this year. I'm not sold.)
PAC 12 CHAMP: Oregon (13-0, dominant in conference play but flimsy OCC schedule) (N.B. - Sagarin has Stanford, USC, and ASU all with 3 losses before the PAC 12 championship.)
INDEPENDENTS: Notre Dame (12-0, with wins over MSU, Mich, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC)
So, who would you send to Miami? Well, in the ELO_CHESS rankings (which is the part of Sagarin that the BCS uses), the postseason-eligible teams projected to be undefeated or one-loss are ranked thusly:
- Alabama (currently #1, games against #9, #18 and #20 remaining)
- Florida (currently #2, projected to lose SECCG)
- Notre Dame (currently #5, games against #10, #11, and #15 remaining)
- Oregon (currently #6, games against #10, #11, #12, and #22)
- Kansas State (currently #7, one loss projected)
- Rutgers (currently #16, one loss projected, stuck in the Big East)
- Boise State (currently #17, one loss, no more losses projected)
- Cincinnati (currently #19, stuck in the Big East)
- Louisiana Tech (currently #27, one loss projected)
- Tulsa (currently #50, one loss, no more losses projected)
Which makes for an interesting BCS scenario...
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Alabama (-9) over Notre Dame
ROSE BOWL: Oregon (-10) over Nebraska
SUGAR BOWL: Florida (at-large, 1-loss SEC runner-up) (-3) over Texas (at-large, best 2-loss team available)
FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State (-2) over Boise State (at-large, best 1-loss team available)
ORANGE BOWL: Florida State (-8) over Cincinnati
Rutgers might leapfrog Texas and/or Boise State in the computers by the end of the year, but I don't think the voters would put two Big East teams in BCS bowls.
So, where is Sagarin full of it?